Why the Kings Won: Selective Shooting

by louismg on Dec 10, 2006 10:10 PM PST in News Comment 5 comments

I won't belabor the points I made last week about how the Kings can greatly improve their chances to win by making higher-percentage shots, but tonight's game against the Hawks was a classic example of the team pushing their way to victory via a high shooting percentage and making the most of opportunities.

There's no doubt that the Hawks are not a good team, but I'll leave that out of the conversation. Instead, let's look at some fundamental rules laid out from our last conversation:
(Stats Corner: Want to Win? Make Shots!)

1. If the Kings shoot above 50% from the floor, they win.
(Tonight, they shot a season-high 57%. They won.)

2. Make more field goals than the other guys.
(Tonight, the Kings sunk 43, to the Hawks' 32.)

3. If they take fewer field goal attempts, but the right ones, they win.
(Tonight, they shot 75 attempts to the Hawks' 77)

4. If you must go to the free-throw line, make a higher percentage than the opponent.
(Tonight, they eked out a 76% to 74% margin)

Just about the only place the "rules" didn't apply tonight was with three-point shooting. While the Kings tend to win with more activity behind the arc, tonight, they were happy with layups and jumpers. Going 2-8 from three-point land, to the Hawks' 5-17, turned out not to be a game changer, as it has in the past.

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Re: Why the Kings Won: Selective Shooting

Its hard since the Hawks looked totally seemed lost without Joe Johnson. Normally, a contender like the Mavs would have had much more field goal attempts. I dont necessarily agree with your analysis on shot attempts. With more shots, you have more opportunity to score. The Hawks destroyed us on the boards which was a bit disheartening but not surprising b/c the Kings didnt play with Kenny Thomas, our leading rebounder. Shot attempts, indirectly tell us about hustle. The Hawks were scrappy tonight but the Kings dodged a bullet tonight without Joe nor Childress.

by kingme18 on Dec 10, 2006 11:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why the Kings Won: Selective Shooting

Common sense would say that the more shot attempts you try, the more you make and the higher your score. Yet the stats are saying that if the Kings are more determined to make fewer, but higher quality shots, instead of throwing the ball up there, they win. We'll see if the sample size is too small, or if this holds up.

Kings-obsessed. A's obsessed. More ramblings: louisgray.com

by louismg on Dec 11, 2006 7:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why the Kings Won: Selective Shooting

I really like and agree with your emphasis on "quality" shots. Quality though is such a "soft"/subjective concept that it doesn't necessarily lend itself well to an Excel data crunch. (Although, I do work with some data guys who are convinced that the answer to all questions can be found with the proper amount a data manipulation :-) Regardless, please keep providing us with the number crunching. I really enjoy looking at the games from a statistical perspective because I get so lost in emotion at times.

by Kusian on Dec 11, 2006 12:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why the Kings Won: Selective Shooting

So what you're really saying is: score more points than the other team, and you just might win?

by evanmeagan on Dec 10, 2006 11:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why the Kings Won: Selective Shooting

If a team makes more free throws, more two pointers and more three pointers than their opponent, they will win EVERY TIME. (Regardless of the number of shots in each category or the percentages.)

I'm sure coaches will analyze the team and individual percentages to evaluate the team, and gain some insight into whom is and whom is not contributing to the team's success.

by aspen on Dec 11, 2006 3:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs