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Around SBN: 2012 Budweiser Shootout Entry List Released

Return My Calls, Eric Musselman!

Apparently, I wasn't convincing enough in my letter to Eric Musselman yesterday. Here's another round of "Please Start Brad Miller!" screams.

Let's look at some player pair numbers from the 2005-06 campaign, courtesy of 82games.com.

Mike Bibby played 3,164 minutes last year, and racked up raw plus-minus of +132. This is to say, when Mike Bibby was in the game, the Kings were +132 better than their opponents. Adjusting it to a "per-48 minutes" level, this comes out to about +2 points per game.

Brad Miller was alongside Bibby for 2,549 of those minutes (roughly 80 percent). In those minutes - when Miller was also on the floor - was +214, for a per-48 average of +4. This is to say the Kings were 2 points per game better than their opponents when Bibby was in the game, and 4 points better than their opponents when Bibby and Miller were both in the game.

It's not just plus-minus, either. In total, Bibby had shot 43.2% last season. When Miller was also on the floor, Bibby shot 44.1%. The team scored 100.6 points per 100 possessions when Bibby was on the floor. When Bibby and Miller were together, the team scored 102.5 points per 100 possessions.

Common sense, at this point, tells you that Mike Bibby is historically a better player when Brad Miller is with him on the court.

You want more? Kevin Martin - part-time starter a year ago. Played 1,912 minutes in total, with 1,398 of those (73 percent) coming with Miller also on the floor. Martin's raw plus-minus was +36, or +0.9 per-48 minutes. With Miller, Martin's raw plus-minus was +82, or +2.8 per-48. Martin shot 47.9% last season. In shots when Miller was also on the floor, Martin shot 48.8%.

Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Raw plus-minus of +169 in 1,961 minutes, or +4.1 per 48 minutes. With Miller, +215 in 1,248 minutes, or +8.3 per 48. He shot 52.8% on the season, but 53.7% with Miller on the floor.

Kenny Thomas? Raw plus-minus of -37 in 2,291 minutes, or -0.8 per 48. With Miller, +43 in 1,560 minutes, or +1.3 per 48. Thomas shot 50.5% on the season, but 53.1% when Miller was also on the floor.

Francisco Garcia. Raw plus-minus of -28 in 1,298 minutes, or -1 per 48. With Miller, +32 in 807 minutes, or +1.9 per 48. Garcia shot 40% on the season, but 41.1% when on the floor with Miller.

Even Ron Artest fared better with Miller on the floor. A raw plus-minus of +217 in 1,602 minutes on the season, for +6.5 per 48. With Miller, +207 in 1,220 minutes, or +8.1 per 48. He shot 38.3% on the season, but 40.9% when Miller was on the floor.

There was only one King from 2005-06 who was better when Brad Miller was not on the floor with him: Jason Hart. And I don't think any of us are going to plead Jason Hart's case for the starting lineup.

Why is any of this important? Look at these first quarters for the Kings:


GAME      SCORE     DEFICIT    FG%   B4BRAD
@PHX      41-29         -12    43%      -10
vORL      21-21          +0    37%       -3
@SAS      26-26          +0    57%        0
@DAL      38-19         -19    40%      -10

San Antonio aside, the Kings were already in the hole before Miller got into the game. (The 'B4BRAD' is the Kings' deficit when Miller first entered the game.) And aside from San Antonio, the Kings were terrible in the first quarter.

I don't think this is Foucault's Last Conundrum. Brad Miller needs to be in the game with the starters to start the game.

Let's repeat it, for good measure:

Brad Miller needs to be in the game with the starters to start the game.
Brad Miller needs to be in the game with the starters to start the game.
Brad Miller needs to be in the game with the starters to start the game.
Brad Miller needs to be in the game with the starters to start the game.
Brad Miller needs to be in the game with the starters to start the game.

</asshole_mode>

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Re: Return My Calls, Eric Musselman!
I agree that they are a better team with Miller on the floor but how much better remains to be seen. I see in the Bee this morning, Bibby is now saying his wrist hurts. If the jerk had sat out a couple days to begin with it would be healed by now. Of course it could just be the old excuse for poor performance. The more I see of Price the more I think Bibbilicious is expendable. That contract he has is unbelievable and all because he had a few good playoff games. It should be at the team's option at the end of this year instead of Bibby's option of going or staying. Those Suns gauards made him look like a statue.

by Observer on Dec 6, 2006 10:26 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Return My Calls, Eric Musselman!
I agree TZ.  This is f*cking ridiculous.  You start your best 5 players because they (typically) get the most minutes.  If there are match-up problems with a team then you substitute early, and liberally.  Otherwise, you go with your best players for the majority of minutes. Miller is obviously ready to start given the number of minutes he has played recently.  If Muss doesn't want to play him 35 - 40 minutes just yet, then fine. But get him on the floor with Bibby and Martin. BTW, starting your best 5 players means that KT takes a seat on the bench where he belongs. I'm tired of playing 4 on 5 on the offensive end. The guy is a horrible offensive player. Has anybody been keeping a "missed lay-ups by KT" log?

by Kusian on Dec 6, 2006 10:43 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Return My Calls, Eric Musselman!
Nice idea on the "Kenny's missed layups" tally. 82games says Kenny is shooting 56.1% on "close" shots (which is basically layups - it takes out dunks and tip-ins).

For comparisons' sake, Abdur-Rahim is 59.3%, Lamar Odom is 65.9%, Elton Brand is 63.1%, Boris Diaw is 69.7%, Shawn Marion is 60.4%, and Mike F'n Dunleavy is 73.7%.

Brad Miller is at 44.4% on very few "close" attempts.

Yeah, 4-on-5 is right.

by Tom Ziller on Dec 6, 2006 10:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Paging evanmeagan
Come on, dude! I defended Brad Miller and used unorthodox stats! Where are you? :D

(I kid.)

by Tom Ziller on Dec 6, 2006 10:57 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Return My Calls, Eric Musselman!
You're not an asshole.  Don Henley's an asshole.  Glenn Frey is an asshole.  You're not an asshole.

Great post.  That's what I logged in to say, before seeing tag towards the end.

by KD on Dec 6, 2006 1:40 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Return My Calls, Eric Musselman!
What, you mean you didn't log in to comment on my "Phil of the Future" reference? You've got to be kidding me.

</sarcasm></severe_dorkitude>

(Yeah, I know tag order. I'm so Web 0.9x.)

by Tom Ziller on Dec 6, 2006 3:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Return My Calls, Eric Musselman!
Based on your "stats," it looks like we need to start a "Miller missed layups" tally. It's not like he's exaclty making up for Thomas' lack of offense.

Also, you wanna talk about being shorthanded on the offensive end with Thomas on the court, what about Miller on the defensive end?

 

by evanmeagan on Dec 6, 2006 4:57 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Return My Calls, Eric Musselman!
I think Brad actually gets blocked quite a bit underneath. He doesn't miss many wide-open shots. But, they both have problems finishing close to basket: one because he is just a horrible offensive player; the other because he can't get 6 inches of the floor.

I know you're a KT supporter, and he does play very hard, but it's time to admit the obvious: the guy is a horrible offensive player, who hurts us on the offensive end. I don't care how good his defense is. A team needs to have five guys that are actually a threat to score.  Unless the shot is a dunk, KT is not a threat. His offensive futility allows his man to ignore him and help on everybody else. He needs to find a spot on the bench and remain there unless we absolutely need a defensive specialist in a specific instance.

by Kusian on Dec 7, 2006 10:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Return My Calls, Eric Musselman!
our bigs are chicago bulls 96-98 bad. except rodman played defense and rebounded, we obviously don't have michael jordan (kevin martin with about 15 more pounds could be more consistent in my opinion), ron artest is like a crazed pippen with far less offensive skills, garcia is toni kukoc without the shooting, we have no computer programmer/three-point shooter (kerr), and our coach has less zen than an hiv hooker.

p.s. what exactly is douby's official title  

by CrownUs93 on Dec 6, 2006 6:20 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Return My Calls, Eric Musselman!
I agree, KT sucks on offense, but regardless of whether you miss your shot or get blocked, it still results in 0 points.

I wouldn't neccessarily consider myself a KT supporter. They both suck. I'm just harder on Miller because he is, or was, supposedly of the all-star caliber.

by evanmeagan on Dec 7, 2006 3:51 PM PST reply actions  

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