Pick 'Em

by Tom Ziller on Dec 26, 2007 12:42 PM PST in Numbers

Choose your weapon.

------per 40 min------
Age Pts Reb Ast TOs Stl 2P/3P/FT
Player A 25 16 4 5 2.7 1.2 45/42/86
Player B 25 20 4 6 2.3 1.5 48/39/82

Relive the excitement.

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Comments

I'm going to guess

But I assume you're highlighting John Salmons vs Francisco Garcia? I'll take Salmons if you're asking. (For the record at the start of the year I could have gone either way and would have been happy with either.)

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Dec 26, 2007 1:04 PM PST reply actions

Well except for the fact that Salmons is 28

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. I'll have to guess again.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Dec 26, 2007 1:06 PM PST reply actions

Hmmmm I didn't pay attention enogh

That looks like the stats Mike Bibby put up at 25 years old. And the stats that Beno Udrih is putting up this year.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Dec 26, 2007 1:08 PM PST reply actions

I get the raw number debate and hiding names

But it's making a strong point that Udrih is more effective than Bibby was at 25 years old. If that's the point (which I guess is what I think you're making).

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Dec 26, 2007 1:44 PM PST up reply actions

hmmmm

am I the only one who doesnt quite belive the "per 40 minute" statistics are very indicative of a players worth?

by Hoops916 on Dec 26, 2007 1:53 PM PST reply actions

The answers

Pookey was right (on his second guess): Player A is Beno, Player B is Bibby at age 25.

This is double-edged -- Beno is comparable to Bibby at that age, maybe not quite as good/developed, but comparable. They are similar. Bibby was a better scorer, had fewer turnovers and drew more fouls. But Bibby also had much better teammates, especially w/r/t holding onto a ball.

But again, Bibby was a 5th year major-minutes player. This is really Beno's second year in a solid role, two years removed from his initial foray into major minutes. And he's a hell of a lot cheaper than Bibby was at that time.

by Tom Ziller on Dec 26, 2007 2:06 PM PST reply actions

You can also say that at age 25

Bibby had the luxury of playing with better surrounding talent making those numbers he had better (more open 3's/shots in general) success because of who he's playing with. And it's hard to argue with the production for $$$$$.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Dec 26, 2007 2:10 PM PST up reply actions

but........

Your also forgetting to figure into the equation the was also playing AGAINST better players..

Thats my main issue with "per 40 minute" stats. They neglect to take into the account that the "per 40" for players who dont play often (such as j.williams for example), often play against 2nd or 3rd tier guys.

by Hoops916 on Dec 26, 2007 2:20 PM PST reply actions

Per 40 stats aren't perfect

They don't deal with the physical reality of having to play 40 mins vs 35 (which is not a big difference but can be for some guys). Or with how the season is structured. There are plenty of fallacies out there about sabermetrics, but I haven't heard a single stats guy say something that isn't true about stats. I've mostly seen people less knowledgable about certain stats (like per 40's) then run with the mis-conceptions while being too hard headed to look something at it for what it is.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Dec 26, 2007 2:30 PM PST up reply actions

Well

Per-minute statistics have a damn good track record. Efficiency does not seem to suffer at the hands of increased minutes.

It's highly possible lower-minutes players face inferior competition; it's also evident players perform better the more minutes they get. These seem to oppose each other as theories, leaving us with largely negligible effects either way.

In this particular case, there's no way you can say Bibby faced substantially better competition in his 36-min than Beno is facing in his 35-min this year. The case might be arguable for someone like 3-Wil, who only gets garbage time. Not for Beno, who is playing against starters most of the time.

by Tom Ziller on Dec 26, 2007 3:08 PM PST up reply actions

well said

Excellent response, TZ. Regardless, the fact is that RIGHT NOW Beno is the better choice between the two. And Bibby never got to the bucket like Beno does now - even when he played with a 60+ win team.

by Kusian on Dec 26, 2007 4:21 PM PST up reply actions

An interesting ballhype post on numbers

Thanks for linking to it. I never saw it when it was originally going on. I've strayed away from the sabermetric debate mostly because I know less than others. The other part of it is that numbers don't factor in all kinds of things that could affect the increase/decrease of numbers. I know that sabermetrics are doing one thing though: rise of intelligent basketball debate.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Dec 26, 2007 7:01 PM PST up reply actions

No Need to Make A Choice

The Kings need all the weapons they can get. Keep them both.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 26, 2007 4:21 PM PST reply actions

Why?

I'm not so sure the team needs much more offense in the backcourt, and all Bibby does is weaken the defense and dominate the offense.

I will admit, I'm interested to see if Theus can avoid the issues that plagued Musselman last year when Bibby and Artest were fighting over leadership of the squad.

by otis29 on Dec 26, 2007 5:50 PM PST up reply actions

Wrong Question

The question shouldn't be: Bibby or Udrih? It should be: Bibby or Udrih vs. Douby?

You need a deep lineup to compete in this league, one that goes 9-10 deep. You are not going to have five guys playing 48 minutes.

If you don't think Bibby is one of the nine or 10 best players on the team, then dump him. But I doubt if many feel that's the case.

If you want to talk lineup issues, the real problem is up front. Do you really think the Kings can compete with Moore/Hawes/K-9 at the 4? The Kings really need to play Artest more there.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 26, 2007 6:21 PM PST reply actions

It's not that simple

If Bibby was a top 3 player with what he's getting paid I could live with it. But he's not really one of the THREE best players on the squad. So dumping him for something worthwhile (which depends on what you think Bibby is worth) is the other alternative.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Dec 26, 2007 6:45 PM PST up reply actions

Pookey hit it on the head

It's not whether Bibby is one of the 9 or 10 best players. His salary sucks up enough of the team's cap that he needs to be one of the top two or three players on the team.

Sure, there are problems up front. And trading Bibby can help solve them in any number of ways (bringing back young talent, attaching the contract of one of the hydras with him, obtaining a draft pick, etc.)

by otis29 on Dec 26, 2007 9:38 PM PST up reply actions