Pay Kevin Martin?
We all accept Kevin Martin is one of the cornerstones of this franchise. I think most have enough clarity of mind to know he's not Jordan, Kobe, or even LeBron. He's a great young player, but he's not the singular talent who can bring title contention all by himself.
This is important to remember as the Kings get ready to negotiate a long-term deal for Martin. Between now and the start of the reason, Sacramento can offer Martin a five-year extension tacked on to the end of his current rookie deal, which expires at the end of 2007-08. If an agreement is not reached, Martin stands to become a restricted free agent next summer, meaning any team can offer him a contract with the Kings having an opportunity to match.
Though Kevin isn't LeBron or Kobe, it's important to lock him up now. He's on the rise -- his 2007-08 will surely improve on his terrific 2006-07. Rising performance leads to rising market worth, of course, and who knows what ridiculous offers some team could make next summer. (Ridiculous offers are the one constant in NBA bidding.) Fiscal responsibility and peace of mind would both point to an extension this summer as the preferred resolution.
So, how much is Martin worth? Again: he's not Kobe or LeBron. A max deal is out of the question, based on a really good season-and-a-half. Al Jefferson probably won't get the max, and power forwards > shooting guards. In fact, Dwight Howard is the only guy from the class of 2004 first round to get an extension so far, and I'd venture he'll be the only to get a max. Emeka Okafor, Josh Smith and Jefferson will get big deals, maybe $60 million for five years. Martin, along with Devin Harris, Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, and Andris Biedrins, will be in that next financial tier.
Where does Martin fit with those four? The Kings are at a disadvantage because Martin's all they've got (relatively speaking). The Bulls can't afford to lose Deng or Gordon, especially on the cusp of something special. But the Kings cannot lose Martin; that'd be disaster. With few bright spots on the roster in the midst of a rebuilding effort, Martin is the glimmer. (No offense to Flaco, Shawes, or Q.) Chicago will stop at nothing to keep Deng, but what about Gordon? I could see the Bulls playing hardball with him, letting him become an RFA next summer. Gordon's an important part of the team, but he's not so good, so promising you have to cater to his wishes. If some other team wants to give Ben $10 million, I think the Bulls would glad let them. Geoff Petrie doesn't have the same luxury with Martin -- watch him leave, and you've got nothing.
Biedrins, being a young center, might get overpaid. I could also see the Warriors waiting on him in case they'd like to include him in a trade this season -- they're trying to win now. It's much harder to trade a guy who has a lucrative contract due (known as a 'base year compensation' player). Harris is a bizarre case (clearly not in the Chris Paul/Deron Williams tier, but better than Kirk Hinrich/Luke Ridnour), and who knows how much Dallas is willing to pay to keep him. Luckily for us, Martin has some relatively apt comparisons in the league.
Richard Hamilton will make $9.7 million this year. Tayshaun Prince will make $8.6 million. Josh Howard is on a roughly $10 million per year deal (which he signed last summer). Gerald Wallace just signed for $57 million over six years. Jason Richardson is overpaid at an average of $12.5 million over the next four seasons. Michael Redd is on a max contract, making $14.5 million this season. Richard Jefferson will make $12.2 million. Corey Maggette (who's considered underpaid) is due $7.8 million. Manu Ginobili will make $9 million. Caron Butler will make $8.2 million.
I actually think Butler's contract is the best comparison. Folks knew Butler was good before he got that extension with Washington -- not franchise-player good, but cornerstone good. He signed a five-year, $46 million extension two summers ago. Martin would seem to be in a slightly more prominent position; Butler had moved around (in the Shaq and Kwame Brown trades) and despite a big rookie season hadn't shown true All-Star glimpses. Martin was an outside All-Star contender last season -- coincidentally, he and Caron would have been key rivals for the East's last guard spot had Martin been in that conference. Given all that, I think we can expect Martin to get a somewhat larger contract than Butler.
But how much is too much? Josh Howard got a four-year, $40 million extension last summer. I thought that was a fantastic deal for Dallas -- and I think Howard and Martin are comparable in team impact (though they do it in vastly different ways). Of course, I'd love to see a full five-year extension for Martin, so that would tease out to five years, $52 million. Since I think Howard's deal was so good, I should be happy with a slightly larger deal for Martin, right? So I think five years, $56 million would be the 'good taste in my mouth' cut-off.
I suspect the deal will be closer to the Howard's pro-rated deal (the $52 million). I hope it's closer to Butler's (with no offense to Martin; I just really want him to contend for a title in Sacramento, you know?).
Regardless, I pray it happens this summer. We just can't wait for Kevin to become a full-fledged star before we pay him.
UPDATE: Henry Abbott of True Hoop wonders: "My concern would be: why would Kevin Martin sign it? The direction of the Kings as a team is 100% bizarro at this point." My response: I'm told he just closed on a house here in July, and he genuinely seems to like the town and his young teammates.
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25 comments
Comments
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by thekangarooster on Aug 1, 2007 10:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by Mityt on Aug 1, 2007 10:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
Prince(Det) - 8.7/9.5/10.3
Mobley(LAC) - 8.4/9.1/9.8
Miller(Mem) - 8.3/9.0/9.8
Richardson(NY) - 8.1/8.8/9.4
Crawford(NY) - 7.9/8.6/9.4
Ginobili(SA) - 9.1/9.9/10.8
Butler(Was) - 8.2/9.0/9.8
The average for these fellows is 8.4/9.1/9.9.
In my mind that is Kevin Martin money (add a little as salaries continue to increase), which when you take it out to five years and escalate for years four and five would be somewhere between $50-$55 million. Add in his Good Feet endorsement and he makes out pretty well. I don't know how much higher I would go. One of the best moves Petrie ever made was not chasing Brian Grant with what was at the time max money. Hurt to lose him, but it would have hurt more to overpay for him (current roster, hello!).
by section214 on Aug 1, 2007 11:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by Carl on Aug 1, 2007 11:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by 19271 on Aug 1, 2007 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
let's look at the other players here...
Kevin Martin > Ben Gordon...Ben Gordon is way too streaky for me to like and Martin's defense is better also.
Gerald Wallace and Kevin Martin is close but i will take Gerald because i think he is more versitale, better rebounder, and better defensively plus as much as Kevin Martin is important to this team i think Gerald might even be more important to the bobcats..that's pretty close.
Kevin Martin > Prince
I think Prince's contract is perfect..right there at 6 - 7 million and Martin should be making 8 - 9 million.
Manu Ginobli and Kevin Martin i think is very close, personally i would rather have Kevin Martin because he is much more consistent but i think Ginobli has a bigger impact.
Caron Butler > Kevin Martin
Caron Butler is probally the better scorer but i think Kevin Martin's jumper is better, this might be the closest comparision of them all but i would bearly take Kevin Martin you can go either way though.
Kevin Martin > Jamal Crawford
Crawford is the same with Ben Gordon he is way too streaky for me to like him but i think Crawford is a better ball handler/passer than Martin but more is the better shooter, scorer, WAY more consistent.
Kevin Martin > Mike Miller (this one is not really that close)
Mike Miller is overpaid..i still see him more as that very good 6th man scorer off the bench on a good team instead of what he was last season..a great scorer on a terrible team..and Kevin Martin's defense was a little up and down last season but it is much much better than Miller's so i think that's what it comes down too.
Kevin Martin > "the cat" mobley
This one is not even close i hated Mobley when he was with Sacramento so maybe i'm bias on this comparision but when Mobley was with SAC he was a fuckin choker and i was glad his ass opted out.
by rimrock101 on Aug 1, 2007 12:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by rimrock101 on Aug 1, 2007 12:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
Please don't commit the common NBA-fan cardinal sin of grouping white guys together.
Hinrich had a substantially superior season to Ridnour and is a far far better defender.
Harris may be better than either (and is younger than both), that much is true.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 1, 2007 12:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by Ziller on Aug 1, 2007 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by Ziller on Aug 1, 2007 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by moproblemz on Aug 1, 2007 3:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by CrownUs93 on Aug 1, 2007 4:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
I've said it before, but I'll reiterate here, I don't think his wind-up keeps the ball out of the hoop, I think beating himself up mentally does. He takes himself out of games. So I say pay up for him if there is a clause in his contract that insists he finds a self-esteem coach. His humility is charming, but it doesn't get the game winning shot to fall more often.
by NYCFan on Aug 2, 2007 5:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
I disagree that he beats himself up mentally, I just don't believe he has the ego, personality or mean streak necessary to be a team leader. Maybe the loss of Bibby and Artest can bring that out of him - more likely it will put pressure on him he's not mentally prepared to handle.
I hope I'm wrong, but I also hope the Kings somehow get a #1 guy on the roster that will keep Kevin in a sidekick role. Who knows, maybe Hawes will end up being that guy?
by otis29 on Aug 2, 2007 6:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
It's a matter of control of the offense. You know who had control last year? No one. When Bibby had the ball, he had control. When Ron had the ball, he had control. When Salmons had the ball, he had control. The coach never had control of the offense. Bibby never had full control.
Martin could certainly use a strong point guard -- even someone like Calderon, for goodness sake -- so there's some order to the madness. I mean, can you imagine what Martin would do with Andre Miller alongside him? Save those four games in the middle of the season when Brad was hitting him with backdoor bounce passes and the occasional moment Francisco and Kevin were on the floor together, did anyone ever help Kevin get his?
by Ziller on Aug 2, 2007 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
I'm certainly not saying Kevin isn't a really good young player, but I just don't think he's wired to be a top banana on an NBA team.
by otis29 on Aug 2, 2007 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
Being a star can be a burden. I think it would help if he had someone to coach him on how to deal with the pressure of being the go-to guy. He doesn't have to be the team leader to be the guy who gets the ball at the end of the game. I hope when he is that person there is not a shred of doubt in his mind that he IS going to score the last shot.
by NYCFan on Aug 2, 2007 8:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
(Last summer he studied a ton of Dwyane Wade video. Kev ended up near the top among guards drawing fouls. Worth considering, I think. Not that Kev's going to turn into Wade or Kobe... just that he's working on the aggression thing.)
by Ziller on Aug 2, 2007 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by NYCFan on Aug 2, 2007 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by section214 on Aug 2, 2007 8:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by CrownUs93 on Aug 2, 2007 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by section214 on Aug 2, 2007 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by CrownUs93 on Aug 2, 2007 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
by section214 on Aug 2, 2007 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pay Kevin Martin?
That's true but i think Wade had a little more talent on his team and had the much better coach, Eddie Jones was a lot younger and was healthy that year and same goes with Lamar Odom.Those 3 and Caron Butler, Rafar Alston, Brian Grant, plus Udonis Haslem but obviously Kevin Martin isn't Wade and i'm not saying he is...Kevin Martin was not even on the playoffs active roster his rookie season...his second season was his breakout year obviously so it's not really that fair to compare them anyway.
by rimrock101 on Aug 2, 2007 5:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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