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Paying Kevin Martin

A few weeks ago, I thought a lot about Kevin Martin's possible contract extension. Here's the conclusion I drew:

But how much is too much? Josh Howard got a four-year, $40 million extension last summer. I thought that was a fantastic deal for Dallas -- and I think Howard and Martin are comparable in team impact (though they do it in vastly different ways). Of course, I'd love to see a full five-year extension for Martin, so that would tease out to five years, $52 million. Since I think Howard's deal was so good, I should be happy with a slightly larger deal for Martin, right? So I think five years, $56 million would be the 'good taste in my mouth' cut-off.

Today, we learned the Kings have reportedly offered Martin $55 million over five years. That's within 'good-taste-in-my-mouth' status. But it's close.

If this were Martin's request, I'd be ecstatic. But it's not. And pen hasn't been put to paper. Which means Martin's agent Jason Levien could ask for more. Which means the pricetag could go up.

Let's hope it doesn't go up too much. Not because Martin doesn't deserve it -- no one works harder, few young guys are such dynamic scorers. But as I think we've learned, tying up too much salary in a few players in anathema to success. This is a bigger contract than Manu Ginobili. Bigger than Leandro Barbosa. Again -- Martin deserves it. But it could get dangerous. It takes more than one star to win a ring.

Kevin will turn 30 years old the year this hypothetical contract expires, and the penultimate salary (assuming standard payscale -- nothing front-loaded or anything) would be around $13 million. Barring an Allen Houstonesque injury, Martin would have a very manageable contract. The salary cap should be up past $60 million by then. All the (current) bad contracts will be long gone. Spencer Hawes will be 25. Who knows what the rest of the team will look like. I'm not going to lose sleep over a slightly inflated deal for Martin that far in the future.

The fact that Geoff Petrie seems very, very serious about keeping Kevin Martin is great news for us. I'm guilty of getting caught up in the numbers of these deals... but this is one we should just grin and bear. Go Kings.

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Re: Paying Kevin Martin
I doubt his agent would demand a higher contract the one offered (well, may be a little higher but just a little). He maybe a future star but he has yet to show that he can carry a team. He should be happy that he is getting more than Howard. I'd take Martin over Howard but I'm sure a lot of non-Kings fan would take Josh in a heartbeat. Btw, how much is Redd's contract? He shouldn't get more than that. Maybe it was a good thing that he did not win MIP. That award might have increased his asking price.

by kingme on Aug 25, 2007 9:26 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
You can bury me if you want, but I'd have to think real hard on a Howard for Martin swap (hypothetical of course). Size beats skill most times, I think I'm inclined to pick Josh.

by Mityt on Aug 27, 2007 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
Too close to call at the moment, Mityt. Martin was 1 pt. better on 1% better shooting pct. last year, while Howard grabbed 3 more boards and blocked one more shot per game. They both averaged 2 assists and a steal per game. K-Mart is 24, Howard is 27. How about you take Howard and I'll take Martin and we'll meet back here in 3 years so one of us can say "I told you so."
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Aug 27, 2007 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
The age factor is big -- Howard's smack in his prime, Martin's three years away. And honestly, Howard's had lots more freedom as the second banana to Dirk for a few seasons now, versus Martin's handcuffing behind inferior offensive players.

Another way of putting it: Would you be surprised to see Martin average 27 ppg within the next five years? Would you be surprised to see Howard average... 25 ppg within the next five years? Scoring isn't everything, but it's a big part for these two.

Howard's an incredible defender, though. Hard to quantify that.

by Ziller on Aug 27, 2007 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
At the same time he can't really defend anything other than SF's and some SG's. He isn't versatile enough to guard, even decently a player like Wade, to do so where you can keep him from having an effect. Scottie Pippen Josh Howard isn't.
I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Aug 27, 2007 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
Redd's got four years left at about $66 miliion, so I'm guessing over five years that his deal was about $78 or $79 million. Using that yard stick this is a fair deal for both sides. Rashard Lewis is getting almost $120 million over six years. While Lewis is a superior player to Martin, I don't think that he's worth $8 million per year more (plus the sixth year) than K-Mart, so again this seems like a fair deal.
If they were signing K-Mart to this extension and all of the bloated contracts were expiring at the end of this year, wouldn't we be a bunch of excited happy campers?
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Aug 25, 2007 9:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
It was a 6 year 92 million deal (or that's what I've seen reported) for Redd.
I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Aug 25, 2007 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
That would make sense.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Aug 25, 2007 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
Have any idea when this will be guaranteed?

by rimrock101 on Aug 25, 2007 9:47 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
To me this is a good/bad news type of deal. Bad news first:

  • You risk the danger of having your best young player since peja locked up at an overvalued price.

  • You overpay as the market seems to be going downward, with the exception of young superstars (whatever that constitutes).

  • You don't know exactly where Kevin would fit in an upper echelon team winning 50+ games.

  • You risk the possibility of having to negotiate a trade kicker at the end of this extension (in the league for 8 seasons with the same team AND an unrestricted Free Agency).

  • You end up overpaying the other young talent in accordance similar to the way you payed Martin.

The good:

  • The possibility of being able to backload the deal may provide a way to get value particularily at the end of his contract when he makes less money than he does at the beginning.

  •  His star continues to rise and he becomes a value at that price.

  • Avoiding the 2008 offseason could drive his price up even further when alot more teams with needs for good outside shooters/slashers could offer him even more money.

  • It makes him happy and he becomes an All-Star next season.

Here's my take. Kevin's best option is to take the 3 year option. He could easily become the premier FA in that time. Dwight/Josh Howard won't be on the market. They will probably be the most coveted FA's around at that time from Martin's draft class. Dwyane Wade/LeBron James won't be on the market either. They're FA will come in 2010. Martin's will come in 2011. On the other hand it's worse for the Kings that he signs a 3 year deal especially if that motivates him to sign a much larger contract. On the other hand he could be a big bust during this 5 year deal and his star doesn't continue to rise and plateau's. My personal opinion is that as long as Kevin is hungry and dedicated to the game he will be a very good/great player in this league for a long time. SG's with outside shooting ability tend to stay in the league for awhile because the wear and tear on their bodies isn't as high as somebody who plays on the inside more.

I'm happy that the kings are signing him to a long term deal and all that. I'm disappointed that the number is so high. Kevin is at most an 8  million a year player at the moment. And if you add an extra mil he isn't better than Peja was at a similar stage. That's the reality. He can be better and he could be a little worse. It's hard to say. It's just that the money seems high for a guy whose best year came on a very dysfunctional franchise regardless of the circumstance.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Aug 25, 2007 5:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
Sorry I meant 2013 on K-Mart's impending FA.
I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Aug 25, 2007 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
Martin is the new face of the franchise. Lets hope he embraces the role and continues to develop which, I personally believe that he will. Ink him now and give all of us something to smile about...at least for a few days.
We are slipping into the NBA abyss.

by jjham15 on Aug 25, 2007 8:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
Martin is a very good player, but he is not of superstar calibre. He is a great "2nd best" player in a team with a Star. Given this, I think the deal is OK or at least a little bit more thank OK.

by Z3nBall3r on Aug 26, 2007 3:37 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
Agreed.  I don't think we'd be resting the fate of the franchise on Kevin's shoulders if Artest and Bibby had played nice last year.  It's easy to point out their flaws as players and over look Kevin's because they are in the prime of their careers and Kevin still has years to develop.  But I think Bibby's contract was drawn when he was about Kevin's age, when Webber and Peja were still on the team.  No one looked to Bibby then to carry the team.

by NYCFan on Aug 26, 2007 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
Yet another argument of how overpaid Bibby is.
I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Aug 26, 2007 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paying Kevin Martin
Bibby's deal was also a seven-year pact. That's too long, period. (So long contracts of that length are no longer allowed.)

by Ziller on Aug 26, 2007 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanx for that update Dan Coon
I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Aug 26, 2007 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Thanx for that update Dan Coon
Unless Dan Rosenbaum and Larry Coon (the two pre-eminent independent cap experts out there) did some sort of Megatron thing. In which case, Dan Coon it is.

by Ziller on Aug 26, 2007 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Thanx for that update Dan Coon
I did mean Larry Coon. My bad. Smartassery only works well with the facts straight.
I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Aug 26, 2007 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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