Exhibits A-D

by Tom Ziller on Oct 17, 2008 2:10 PM PDT

Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus has an enlightening piece which explains the relevance of preseason statistics. I encourage you to check out the whole thing, but here's the gist for the time-constrained: there is some predictive value in preseason numbers at the player level. There's one passage I think relates particularly well to my own exhibition concerns w/r/t figuring out the '08-09 Kings:

Break down the numbers by category and the effort stats (rebounds, blocks, etc.) carry over closely into the regular season, while shooting percentages--more variable even season to season--have a dramatically lower correlation.

This makes sense -- players don't often go on rebound streaks or block streaks; those figures remain mostly consistent game over game and year over year. One of my biggest questions early this season: how good at rebounding are Jason Thompson and Donté Greene?

Spencer Hawes figures to be an average or slightly below rebounder at center, based on last year's record. Kevin Martin has been a slight above-average rebounder at two-guard, and Beno Udrih is slightly below-average for a point. For this team to survive on the boards with unforeseen explosions from Hawes or Martin, the future forwards need to rebound the hell out of the ball. The selection of Thompson figures into that, and a fair deal of Greene's bill of goods is connected to his otherworldly size for a three.

So how have those fellows rebounded this preseason?

Thompson is at roughly 9.8 rebounds per 36 minutes, just a hair ahead of Hawes (9.7), but behind Shelden Williams (11.8) and Brad Miller (10.9). Greene is not on the face of the Earth -- none of the Sacramento wings are -- so I'm going to conveniently ignore him for now.

Right now, Thompson looks like a good rebounder, on par with Hawes (who'd be quite good in comparison with power forwards) and historically Miller (ditto ... hence the success next to Vlade Divac in 2003-04). But that's through four preseason game, the first four preseason games of the kid's career. I'll withhold encouragement or discouragement for now.

Tweet Comment 12 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

The most important point to me TZ is this

Yes, Thompson may not be Dwight Howard on the boards, but if he’s very good isn’t that at least a step up from Mikki Moore and Kenny Thomas (of 2 years ago say). The effort that he’s giving while still being a bit lost and confused is nice. He’s seemingly playing hard, but he hasn’t grabbed the nuances. Maybe I’m alone in this, but that isn’t a bad thing. Very few rookies are all-stars their first season’s, and the one’s who are, well not to belabor a point, but they’ve been the can’t miss stud’s to begin with.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Oct 17, 2008 2:21 PM PDT reply actions

Yes

I neglected to mention Mikki: if JT is even average (never mind “quite good”), he is a HUGE step up from Mikki on the boards.

by Tom Ziller on Oct 17, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Only one more

I really want to leave preseason stats alone, I really do, but:

Kevin Martin is averaging 31 points per 36min on 73% shooting.

by Tom Ziller on Oct 17, 2008 2:36 PM PDT reply actions

If that carries over

You could make an argument his ascension to All-Star worthy is more impressive than Arenas’ to all-star dom.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Oct 17, 2008 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions

drool.

fantasy draft soon. Everyone’s going to laugh when I take Kevin in the second round.

Donte? Donte'! Donté?!?!
'spect da 'xtra E'

by iashwash on Oct 17, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions

If you can take Kevin in the 3rd you'd have a steal

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Oct 17, 2008 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Sucks for me

that everyone in my fantasy league become infatuated with Kevin Martin last year, and there’s been rumblings someone’s gonna take him end of 1st round this year.

by Shizzo on Oct 18, 2008 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions

...

There are no words.

Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation

by Evan Dunlap on Oct 17, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Improvement

I think it’s pretty obvious that Thompson’s rebounding numbers are going to improve. He’s got the height, athleticism and hands. He doesn’t yet know how to block out, where to be on the court and how to deal with different types of players around the league. When he learns those things, he’ll be at least as good as Miller.

Shut up and Coach

by Carl on Oct 17, 2008 3:16 PM PDT reply actions

Good test tonight

Houston led the west with 44.6 rebounds per game with a +4 advantage over it’s opponents. The KIngs were last in the west with 40.1 rebounds per game and a deviation of -2.

I’ll be looking to see who get what amount of playing time, since Theus should be starting to narrow in on the regular season rotation.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Oct 17, 2008 3:31 PM PDT reply actions

Backup point guard

I’m particularly interested in who comes off the bench first at the backup point guard spot. Bobby Brown has looked good for being so green behind the ears, but he hasn’t necessarily looked good in doing what an NBA backup point guard should do.

Shut up and Coach

by Carl on Oct 17, 2008 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Lineups too jumbled

If I’m not mistaken, didn’t Brown do better when Beno was out and Brown got to play more with the starters. Playing with the rookies at the end of games, they all look a little lost. Also, he seems to defer a lot to BJax when their in the game together. Maybe a student looking up to his mentor kind of thing. Hopefully, he’ll settle more into the PG role when the rotation is more stablized and he gets to play with the regulars more often.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Oct 18, 2008 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions