FanPost

Yet another random trade idea

Shelden and Douby for Paul Milsap (1yr @ 800K), Jarron Collins (1yr @ $2M), and Morris Almond (1yr @ 1.08M) works on the Trade Machine. So does Shelden by himself for the same 3. What combo of Shelden, Douby, the Rockets' 2009 first rounder, and our 2009 first rounder would you be willing to give up? Assuming the deal happened, what do you think fair value for Milsap's next contract will be?

Here's a bunch of background that I wrote before realizing that no one would want to read it. In it, I attempt to explain the Jazz's hypothetical interest in dealing Milsap.

We've spent a fair amount of time discussing the possibility of going after Carlos Boozer when he becomes a free agent after this season. In the course of exploring that idea, I found that there is apparently no way that the Jazz will be able to pay Boozer and Paul Milsap their projected market value next offseason. Kirilenko will make (appx numbers) $16.45M, Deron Williams $13.75M, Okur will make at least $9M and possibly ask for more (he has an ETO after the season and many think that he will ask for and receive something in the range of $10-12M from the Jazz). Add to those large contracts the guaranteed contracts of C.J. Miles ($3.7M) and Kosta Koufos ($1.2M) as well as the virtual guarantees of Kyle Korver ($5.34M, ETO) and Ronnie Brewer ($2.72M, team option but a seemingly obvious bargain). The Jazz project to owe $49.5-52.5M (depending on Okur) to those 7 players, who don't include Boozer or Milsap.

This is where my knowledge of the details gets fairly murky, so please let me know if I seem to have something wrong. I believe that Boozer should get something in the range of $15-17M in 2009, assuming that he plays to his potential, avoids injury, opts out, and signs a new multi-year deal. Based on recent trends, the salary cap and luxury tax limit should be about $62M and $75.5M, respectively. So it seems that the Jazz could resign Boozer and be over the cap, but able to avoid the luxury tax in 2009 so long as the rest of their roster (after the top 8 guys) remains cheap.

I don't know if the Jazz will want to pay Boozer as much as he will be able to get elsewhere. However, it seems that they will not have their hands tied by the salary cap. If they make the decision that he is too valuable to let go during the 2008-2009 season, they will also be making the decision that Paul Milsap will not be with the team after 2009. They will want to trade him before the 2009 offseason when they will not be able to afford him without crossing the luxury tax barrier. He will want more money and more minutes.

From the Jazz's perspective, What's the best-case scenario for Milsap, that he turns into Boozer? He is a great value now at 800K, but he will need to be paid in the offseason. What is their motivation for keeping him when they already have Okur, Kirilenko, Koufos, and (if they want him) Boozer in the frontcourt? Why pay for an unknown commodity when you can afford the real deal?

With B Jax off the books or on the cheap, SAR off the books, Mikki bought out, Shelden and Douby traded, and the filler coming from Utah (Almond and Collins) off the books, the Kings would be around $48M and 10 men, leaving them plenty of space to pay Milsap.

The Jazz get a couple of young, talented players with flexible contracts and, potentially, a first round draft pick all for a guy they got in the second round and (hypothetically) can't afford to pay anyway.

Seems like a good deal to me. I think there is room for Milsap, Thompson (Is it just me, or is anyone else imagining this guy playing 3-5?), and Shawes in the future frontcourt.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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