Kevin Martin & The NBA Scoring Title
Four years ago, Kevin Martin averaged 2.6 field goal attempts and 1.2 free throw attempt per game, for a scoring average of 2.9 pts. per game.
Three years ago, Kevin Martin averaged 7.6 field goal attempts and 3.1 free throw attempts for a scoring average of 10.9 pts. per game.
Two years ago, Kevin Martin averaged 13.3 field goal attempts and 7.1 free throw attempts for a scoring average of 20.2 pts. per game.
Last year, Kevin Martin averaged 15.0 field goal attempts and 9.5 free throw attempts for a scoring average of 23.7 pts. per game.
For Martin's career, if you take his shot attempts and free throw attempts and add them together, it comes pretty close to matching his scoring average.
In the 15 games that Ron Artest did not play last year and Kevin Martin did, he averaged 28.7 points pers game, which would have been good for 2nd in the NBA in scoring, behind only LeBron James. Martin actually finished 6th in scoring (7th if you include non-qualifier Dwyane Wade).
So, could Kevin Martin win the NBA scoring title this year?
Let's look at the competition -
- Corey Maggette A little bit of a sleeper pick here, but Maggette averaged 22.3 pts. per game last year for the Clippers. Now he moves to Nellie ball, and he'll open the season picking up some of the scoring slack created by the injury to Monta Ellis. All things considered, you have to like him for 25-26 pts. per game, don't you?
- Dirk Nowitzki Nowitzki finished 1/10 of a point behind Martin last year, but I would be surprised if he topped 25 pts. per game with Rick Carlisle at the helm, as the Mavs will probably (a) play at least a little slower and (b) at age 30 and entering his 11th season, it's time to give Dirk a blow here and there.
- Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson At 25.7 and 26.4 pts. per game lst year respectively, this tandem is the most formidable scoring duo in the league. They are also the reason that the neither one of them will win the scoring title, at least not while they are playing on the same team. But a 3-4 finish for AI and 'Melo last year was damned impressive, no?
- Dwyane Wade Watch out for this guy. From 2005-07 Wade averaged over 27 pts. per game, and if he is healthy he stands to take more shots this year than he has ever taken in his NBA career. Over his past three seasons, Wade has averaged almost 19 shots and over 10 free throws per game. He could push the 30 pts. per game average this year.
- Amare Stoudemire If this guy ever gets a requisite number of shots, watch out. Stoudemire averaged over 25 pts. per game last year on only 15.3 shots (and 8.7 free throws). His true shooting percentage is ridiculous. For all the talk of how Nash sets such a nice table, imagine if Stoudemire existed in an environment that featured him more (put him Carlos Boozer's shoes, for example). Stoudemire will probably get a couple more shots per game this year, and with his TS% that could vault him over the 28 ppg mark.
- Kobe Bryant The world's greatest player is comfortable knowing that he does not need to lead the league in scoring to make his mark. He also knows that an NBA title is the only way to quiet all of his remaining critics (important to note that we are not critical of Kobe in Sacramento, we just hate him). With a cast of Bynum, Gasol and Odom, don't be surprised if Bryant's 28.3 pts. per game average from last year actually dips a little bit. And don't be surprised if he's still playing in June.
- LeBron James The only player to top 30 pts. per game last year (he was right on the number), there is no reason to believe that James won't wind up over 30 pts. per game this year. His supporting cast (sometimes a contradiction in terms) remains the same, and they will rely on LeBron to score early and often.
So where does Kevin Martin fit into all of this? I figure that Martin's opportunities this year will more closely replicate his games sans Artest than the rest of last season. The Kings are talking that they are going to run a little more and run a hybrid version of the triangle. Martin will benefit from both of these things. As far as teams ganging up on him, that may affect his true shooting percentage a bit, but he's going to get his shots. And while the roster may be filled with youth and average veteran talent, Brad Miller knows how to make a team pay for double teaming a teammate, and John Salmons, Francisco Garcia, Beno Udrih, Mikki Moore, and Bobby Jackson (just to name a few) know how to stick open shots. No opponent is going to be able to go "Jordan Rules" on Martin, and quite frankly it's going to be a few months before he begins to merit that type of consideration from opponents.
My call?
- James 31.7
- Wade 29.8
- Bryant 27.8
- Martin 27.4
- Stoudemire 27.3
- Anthony 26.2
- Iverson 25.9
- Magette 25.1
- Nowitzki 23.5
- Kenny Thomas (just wanted to see if you were still paying attention)
And at the end of the season, we will be asking ourselves how a guy that finishes 4th in scoring and makes the All NBA 3rd Team failed to make the All Star Team.
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17 comments
Comments
Meh...
I have to respectfully disagree on a few points here. You mentioned that Kobe may dip in points with Bynum and Gasol, but you only have him dropping half a point. I think it’ll be a little bit less. If he’s smart he’ll let Bynum and Gasol do a bit more. Gasol will definitely score well, and Bynum might if he recovers well. I think Kobe drops closer to 26. Or maybe we get lucky and he misses most of the season with painfully explosive diarrhea.
Wade is definitely a scoring machine and appears to have returned to form as evidenced by the Olympics. Buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut… and this is a big butt, he’ll also be playing with Marion the Crybaby who will want quite a few shots too. However, since Miami completely fuckin’ sucks I’m sure they’ll both get plenty of shots. Overall, I think Wade goes for 27.5.
K-Mart, however, benefits from getting a large number of Artest’s 17 shots per game. Say he gets 20 shots per game at 45% shooting, which was last season’s average. This means he makes 9 FGs per game. Let’s say that two of those shots are 3 pointers. That’s 20 points on FGs alone. As far as free throws are concerned he’s averaged roughly half as many FTAs as he has FGAs over his career. So that means about 10 FTAs per game, if not more. At 86% that’s another 8.6ppg. That puts him at 28.6ppg. Plus, keep in mind K-Mart likes to do that thing where he goes off for 40 points every once in awhile. My math may not be entirely accurate or correct or make any sense, but its almost 1:30, so eff it!
Kevin Martin, line 1 holding for you. Your destiny is calling. - Section214
by vfettke on Oct 5, 2008 1:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Valid Points
And you may be right. My thought regarding Kobe is that even though he may get fewer shots, his TS% should go up due to the talent around him (remember, Bynum/Gasol/Odom really didn’t play together last year).
Wade managed nearly 28 pts. per game while Shaq was there, so I don’t think that Marion will suck too many points from him.
You’re also right that Martin does do the 40+ thing from time to time…but Kobe does the 50+ thing from time to time..or the 60+ thing…the 70+ thing…the 80+ thing…
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Oct 5, 2008 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but Kobe's a doody head!
And I think Marion will definitely suck some of Wade’s points away. Shaq was incredibly willing to let Wade do his thing. Marion, on the other hand is whiner who wants to be the main option. I think you underestimate his selfishness.
Kevin Martin, line 1 holding for you. Your destiny is calling. - Section214
by vfettke on Oct 6, 2008 7:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another good point
Shaq has averaged .7 more assists per game than Marion, so the odds of Wade getting a ball back from O’Neal are better than getting one back from Me-rion.
Kobe is a doody head.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Oct 6, 2008 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good breakdown
I think the analysis is realistic. It inspires hope, without drinking too much of the hometown kool-aid. I’d agree that a top-5 finish is realistic. And I know for a fact that the mainstream sports media will still give Martin no credit no matter where he finishes. Never fear, Underdog is here!
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
by Exhibit G on Oct 5, 2008 9:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He'll get credit...
…if we’re the 8th seed. I have some ridiculously blind faith in this squad to beat out Portland and the Clippers.
by Shizzo on Oct 5, 2008 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...Martin will get credit
Only when the Kings make the playoffs, play against the first seeded Mavericks, then defeat them in a nationally televised event.
by CloudyEyes on Oct 5, 2008 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm concerned a lot more with
how Martin does on defense and how the Kings do as a team. We all know the guy can score. That’s a given. Looking forward to Tuesday just to see how Martin deals with finally being “the man”. How will he take to this leadership role? It’s a lot to bare for such a youngster.
by KingsFan on Oct 5, 2008 1:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
where's the K9
choice on the poll. thats always my favorite choice
when will the Kenny Thomas Reign of Terror end?!!??
by diehardkingsfan5 on Oct 5, 2008 8:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I garuntee that....
Kevin Martin will score 50 points in a game this year.
by Ultrakingsfan on Oct 6, 2008 8:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Prediction
I predict that Martin will average 25.8 this year. I hope it’s more than that but I think Salmons will take a LOT of shots this year. Similar to Artest.
"Oh, boy! This website is very good. But let's talk about the Raiders instead - "Peaches" Napier
by dalt99 on Oct 6, 2008 9:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Is it about time
to start the dump Salmans campaign?
by KingsFan on Oct 6, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Time will tell
"Oh, boy! This website is very good. But let's talk about the Raiders instead" - "Peaches" Napier
by dalt99 on Oct 6, 2008 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was being sarcastic
because that’s what happened to Artest here. I like Salmons but I wish he’d learn to dump off after he spins.
by KingsFan on Oct 6, 2008 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it would be great
if martin’s scoring average jumps up. it would also be great if his scoring average (and heck, even shots per game) stay about the same, and his assist numbers shoot up. i think instead of seeing 27ppg 2.1apg 4.5rpg, i would rather see 23ppg 5.5apg 5.5rpg ;)
by sactoreg on Oct 6, 2008 1:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
so would I
but a scoring title is not a bad second place prize
Donte? Donte'! Donté?!?!
'spect da 'xtra E'
by iashwash on Oct 6, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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