The Importance of Drafting in the Top 5

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 26, 2008 5:31 AM PST Comment 44 comments

Pookey's post on one of the current threads about Devin Harris being picked No. 5 in the 2004 draft got me to thinking about the importance on the top 5 spots in the draft compared to the crapshoot that is the rest of the draft.

So I took a look at the 2003 draft, the 2004 draft, and the 2005 draft and decided to compose two teams: one composed of the 15 top 5 draft picks in those three drafts and another team chosen from all other players taken in those three drafts.

Outside of Brandon Roy, chosen No. 6 in the 2006 draft, I think it's too early to draw any conclusions about the players chosen in the last three drafts, so it's probably best to dissect those drafts at a later date.

Here's the Top 5 team from the 2003-2005 drafts, ranked in rough order of their ability:

* Big Men: Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Emeka Okafor, Marvin Williams, Andrew Bogut, Darko Milicic.

* Tweeners: LeBron James.

* Guards: Dwayne Wade, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Devin Harris, Ben Gordon, Raymond Felton, Shaun Livingston.

Here’s most of the candidates for the Other Players team, again ranked in rough order of their ability:

* Big Men: David West, Josh Smith, Andrew Bynum, Josh Howard, Chris Kaman, Al Jefferson, Luol Deng, Andris Biedrins, Kendrick Perkins, David Lee, Boris Diaw, Charlie Villanueva, Hakim Warrick, Travis Outlaw, Anderson Varejao, Matt Bonner, Andray Blatche, Nick Collison, Jason Maxiell, Ronny Turiaf, Brandon Bass, Sean May, Kris Humphries, Zaza Pachulia, Robert Swift.

* Tweeners: Danny Granger, Andre Iguodala, Josh Childress, Kyle Korver, Linas Kleiza, Mikael Pietrus, Jason Kapono, Trevor Ariza, Francisco Garcia, C. J. Miles, Jarvis Hayes, Antoine Wright, Sasha Pavlovic.

* Guards: Kevin Martin, Monta Ellis, Leandro Barbosa, Mo Williams, T.J. Ford, J.R. Smith, Keith Bogans, Martell Webster, Steve Blake, Jameer Nelson, Delonte West, Kirk Hinrich, Louis Williams, Jarrett Jack, Rashad McCants, Nate Robinson, Luke Ridnour, Chris Duhon, Beno Udrih, Sasha Vujacic, Willie Green, Tony Allen, Sebastian Telfair.

So maybe this gives you a starting five matchup of Howard, Anthony, James, Wade and Paul vs. West, Bynum, Granger, Martin and Barbosa. That seems to be quite a mismatch.

Now whether this trend continues if you take previous three-year periods and do the same drill, I don’t know. But I suspect that it does.

I hope we get a top 5 pick next year, and I hope we use it well.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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Nice work CC

What’s interesting to me about this list is then take your Top 5 guys and see how many of them are superstars:

Howard, Bosh (arguably), LeBron, Wade, Paul, Deron Williams (maybe), Devin Harris (maybe, sort of)

I easily leave Carmelo Anthony off this list, but maybe he’ll grow up someday and be worth putting on.

A top 5 pick would be great, using it well will be the real trick.

So of the 15 picks, 4 certainly are, 3 are maybe’s and 7-8 are misses, at least when you hold them to very high standards.

The more you guys work the trade machine, the happier I am GP is our GM.

by ForThree on Dec 26, 2008 5:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Or maybe not

I just did a quick and dirty assessment of the 2000-2002 drafts, and the results are al ot weaker for the Top 5 picks, The “others” not only would hold their own but would likely dominate. Let’s take a look:

2000
1. Kenyon Martin
2. Stromile Swift
3. Darius Miles
4. Marcus Fizer
5. Mike Miller
Some others: Hedo Turkoglu, Michael Redd, Jamal Crawford.

2001
1. Kwame Brown
2. Tyson Chandler
3. Pau Gasol
4. Eddy Curry
5. Jason Richardson
Some others: Joe Johnson, Richard Jefferson, Zack Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Mehmet Okur

2002
1. Yao Ming
2. Jay Williams
3. Mike Dunleavy
4. Drew Gooden
5. Nikoloz Tskitishvili
Some others: Amare Stoudemire, Caron Butler, Tayshaun Prince, Carlos Boozer, Luis Scola.

So maybe you have Yao with Pau Gasol, Mike Miller, Jay Rich and a pick em vs. the Others possible starting crew of Stoudemire, Boozer, Butler, Joe Johnson and either Parker or Arenas. Advantage: Others.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 26, 2008 6:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Drawing conclusions from tiny samples of data, but...

This seems to indicate late bloomers can be found from 6- in a draft, but you have to be patient with them.

Also, talk about a wasteland for superstars, that’s 2000-2002. We’re talking Amare Stoudamire, then…Tony Parker and Gilbert Arenas? Honestly, I think this just reinforces how difficult it is to find a superstar.

The more you guys work the trade machine, the happier I am GP is our GM.

by ForThree on Dec 26, 2008 9:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

of course, you are all right

Drafts vary from year to year. As a Kings fan my first inclination is to go to Pervis Ellison as the No. 1. Bad pick, but bad draft talent and no doubt Sacto missed on future All-Stars (Glenn Rice, Sean Elliot, Shawn Kemp, Tim Hardaway) but the first five draftees also included Danny Ferry and JR Reid. No superstars. So repeating the obvious, draft talent varies.

I think it is also obvious and what we all are agreeing on, is that high draft choices don’t guarantee superstar status but they increase the odds tremendously. Top 5? I say Top 3 at the most, and exponentially better with Top 2 and Top 1.

Why this talk. Let’s let the feline out of the flexible carrying container; to paraphrase Gordon Gecko – Losing is good. It hurts plenty but as I have stated repeatedly – better to lose well and often then be mediocre. I hate mediocre. Even the most stalwart of Kings fans has to agree this season is broken. A high draft (1-3) will fix it. (yes there is a lottery and no there is no guarantee that will get a high pick).

by betweentheeyes on Dec 26, 2008 10:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

ya, this was the first thing i thought about when looking at the draft year with lebron, melo, bosh etc. that was a ridiculously superstar heavy draft, probably throws up a little on the analysis. Good premise and a good idea to look at a larger pool of data tho

I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken

by joeytothelimit on Dec 26, 2008 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

The 2003 Top 5 alone would be a tough match for any team, and one of them was a serious bust.

Wade, Anthony, James, Bosh, Milicic

Including 2003 in a small sample pretty much skews any analysis on draft position. The 1/5 chance normally found (of getting a superstar) was practically reversed that year.

by smgmatt on Dec 26, 2008 12:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No guarantees

Its a crap-shoot even in the top five.

Which is why I think a high pick is overrated. We want it to be a savior – but it often isn’t.

"You keep on using that word
I do not think it mean what you think it means"

by lietothegirls on Dec 27, 2008 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Less of a crap shoot

than picking late in the first round.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Dec 29, 2008 12:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Which explains why there is a lottery

It seems that the fact that a top 5 pick can be a team altering pick is not lost on league officials. The reason the Lottery was instituted was to keep teams who lose on purpose from gaining an unassailable advantage in the draft. So the league says you can lose, but you lose at your own peril. Just because you lose doesnt guarentee anything but more ping pong balls. And I believe that teams that lose on purpose will get the bad karma they deserve and a mediocre draft pick. So I say win while you can, and make wise draft choices with the picks you get. There are no guarentees that losing now means winning later or even that the draft guarentees your team will improve (see Timberwolves). Just have to trust that Petrie can make wise draft choices with whatever draft position he gets. Besides, I believe that aquiring free agents can be a quicker fix, and surly a more exact science given the players in free agency have a track record. So in reality, the quality of your GM has much more to do with sucess than draft position or free agent aquisition. Perhaps we should analyze what our GM has been up to these past 5 years or so, taking into account the draft, free agents, and coaches hired. Maybe the problem isnt our draft position, but who is doing the drafting..

by FaStRmAn on Dec 26, 2008 12:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Great research and observations, rec'd for that

I think the comparison between the 2000-2002 drafts and the 2003-2005 drafts just shows how hard it is to evalute talent and how hard it is to draft stars.

This draft doesn’t look that deep and resembles a bit of those 2000 to 2002 drafts, meaning that the star we need could be anywhere, not necessarily just the first picks.

by eduardo_m7 on Dec 26, 2008 2:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Or the 2010/2011 or 2011/2012 Drafts

We’re so far from being a contender, that getting a star now shouldn’t be a primary concern. I’m not talking about the draft, which based on the info CC has posted is our best chance of adding a SuperStar to the roster. I’m talking of trading for a star and the Wallace deal in particular.

Since we don’t know who or what position our SuperStar will play, we need to keep our options open and not get ourselves locked into a expensive long term contract expecially for a player who’s injury prone. Yes he would be an improvement today, but is he the piece that we will need to take us to the Finals. The cap space he takes up could be just what we need next year to move up in the draft and get the SuperStar we need.

I say continue to rebuild through the draft. Use our cap space for short term or expiring Vet contracts Then if or when we do draft a SuperStar, we have the flexibility to add the pieces we need around them.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Dec 26, 2008 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I don’t think I mentioned anything about signing anyone long term but I agree with that notion for sure. At the same time, remember the whole free agent craziness going on for years to come. I’m not saying we will be part of it, I think that we could take advantage of other teams trying to make crazy deals just to put themselves in position to be players then.

I agree that building through the draft is what we need. By doing that, we also accumulate young pieces to include in future trades for better established players that we will need for when we are able to contend. The thing about drafts is that I believe, you mostly draft a player because you feel he fits in your future plans, so we always need to look at what we need and draft accordingly. I dn’t think looking for a superstar is a bad thing, I’m sure every team draft with the hope that a player will become one.

by eduardo_m7 on Dec 26, 2008 3:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Final MVPs

Ok, I will add some megalomaniac stats:

The draft number of the Finals MVPs in the past 40/30/20/10 years:

Past decade:
6x No. 1 (3x Duncan, 3x Shaq)
1x No. 3 (Billups)
1x No. 5 (Wade)
1x No. 10 (Pierce)
1x No. 28 (Parker)
i.e. 60% Top pick, 70% Top 3, 80% Top 5, 90% Top 10 & Top 20, 100% Top 30

Past twenty years:
8x No. 1 (3x Duncan, 3x Shaq, 2x Hakeem)
1x No. 2 (Thomas)
7x No. 3 (6x Jordan, 1x Billups)
1x No. 5 (Wade)
1x No. 10 (Pierce)
1x No. 18 (Dumars)
1x No. 28 (Parker)
i.e. 40% Top pick, 80% Top 3, 85% Top 5, 90% Top 10, 95% Top 20, 100% Top 30

Past thirty years:
13x No. 1 (3x Duncan, 3x Shaq, 3x Magic, 2x Hakeem, 1x Kareem, 1x Worthy)
1x No. 2 (Thomas)
7x No. 3 (6x Jordan, 1x Billups)
1x No. 5 (Wade)
2x No. 6 (Bird)
1x No. 10 (Pierce)
1x No. 12 (Maxwell)
1x No. 18 (Dumars)
1x No. 28 (Parker)
1x No. 29 (Denis Johnson – the 2nd round pick)
+ Moses Malone as No.5 of the ABA Dispersal Draft , whom I will not count.

i.e. (excluding the 1983 MVP of Moses Malone at all) 45% Top pick, 72% Top 3, 76% Top 5, 86% Top 10, 93% Top 20, 100% Top 30

Past fourty years:
15x No. 1 (3x Duncan, 3x Shaq, 3x Magic, 2x Hakeem, 2x Kareem, 1x Worthy, 1x Walton)
4x No. 2 (West, Thomas, Barry, Unseld)
7x No. 3 (6x Jordan, 1x Billups)
1x No. 5 (Wade)
2x No. 6 (Bird)
1x No. 7 (Havlicek)
2x No. 8 (2x Reed – technically a 2nd round pick)
1x No. 9 (White)
1x No. 10 (Pierce)
1x No. 12 (Maxwell)
1x No. 18 (Dumars)
1x No. 28 (Parker)
1x No. 29 (Denis Johnson – the 2nd round pick)
+ Moses Malone as No.5 of the ABA Dispersal Draft , whom I will not count.
+ WIlton Chamberlain as a ‘territorial pick’ of Philadelphia, whim I will count neither

i.e. (without 1972 and 1983 MVPs of Chamberlain and Malone) 39% Top pick, 68% Top 3, 71% Top 5, 89% Top 10, 95% Top 20, 100% Top 30

Hm, sorry for the length and perhaps for the uselessness

by KingsFanfromCentralEurope on Dec 26, 2008 4:16 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

Very interesting, Thanks

If your evaluating the overall value of each draft position, the multiple winners obviously skew the data, but the number do coincide with other statistical evaluations to show the value of the top 5 picks compared to the rest of the draft.

I just hope GP understands the enormous value of moving up in the draft, and stops being satisfied with picks 10 thru 21.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Dec 26, 2008 4:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bad Assumption

I just hope GP understands the enormous value of moving up in the draft, and stops being satisfied with picks 10 thru 21.

I’m pretty sure he knows the value of higher picks . . . for a tangential reference, he commented on how Shelden was the first “#5 pick” the Kings have had. The problem most likely lies in the fact that other teams also know the value of high picks, and thus are not as willing to trade them. Looking at the last few years, the only movement in the Top of the draft has been with teams also in the top of the draft (see: Mayo/Love) or trading picks for established players using cap space (see: Richardson, Jason). Who’s going to trade a Top 5 pick for even a couple “10 thru 21” picks?

Don’t mistake lack of movement for lack of effort.

by smgmatt on Dec 27, 2008 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Good call

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Dec 27, 2008 12:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely

That’s why in another post, I said I’d be willing to trade Salmons &/OR Martin plus future/present draft choices to get the player we want and need.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Dec 27, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Some years in the NBA draft there were only 12 NBA teams

Some guys were taken in the 3rd round, that would be terrific players, wherever they were drafted. (That was really the case until the early 70’s when expansion came in full form.)

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Dec 26, 2008 9:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Great post

Well worth a rec.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 29, 2008 7:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

not to take anything away from your argument

but we do in fact have a top five pick on this team. oh snap.

That said, Martin’s injury has me less perturbed than I should be mostly a result of your abovementionables. Good point, well taken, and let’s all be happy Petrie is making the pick.

Donte? Donte'! Donté?!?!
'spect da 'xtra E'

by iashwash on Dec 26, 2008 8:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

But I want Kevin Pritchard making it!

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Dec 26, 2008 9:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

You want Greg Oden over Kevin Durant? I will take my chances with GP and JLevein and Co.

by betweentheeyes on Dec 27, 2008 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to "Pritch-Slap" you!

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Dec 27, 2008 1:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

/bends over

by betweentheeyes on Dec 27, 2008 1:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Jump off the Capitol Bridge

Onto West Capitol Ave. That’s enough punishment for you. :)

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Dec 27, 2008 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

THABEEEEEET!!!

"You keep on using that word
I do not think it mean what you think it means"

by lietothegirls on Dec 27, 2008 1:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

simple, succinct, sereptitious

Donte? Donte'! Donté?!?!
'spect da 'xtra E'

by iashwash on Dec 27, 2008 11:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention

Ridiculously repetitive and redundant.

Coming to you live from the land of interim coaches.

by LeaguePassAddict on Dec 29, 2008 7:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Welcome to lttg's world

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Dec 29, 2008 9:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That however

is sweet alliteration LPA. :)

The more you guys work the trade machine, the happier I am GP is our GM.

by ForThree on Dec 29, 2008 10:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There's just not much else to say right now

The present is miserable and dark.
Far more difficult and wretched than I ever expected,
so much so that I’m often out of anything relevant to say, as are most here – though I admire them the continued effort.

As even our young players appear to be losing ground, scrabbling at the hillside mud as they slide toward the abyss, I’m admittedly, Desperately trying to look ahead, look for some hope, some promise, as we trudge through this misery…..

as Z said in his post-game post

UHG

qualify that

"You keep on using that word
I do not think it mean what you think it means"

by lietothegirls on Dec 29, 2008 10:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My only point

Is that your constant screaming of THABEEEEEEEET!! is becoming a lot like your SAVE RON ARTEST mantra. We get it. You like the kid.

And that December is too soon to have decided on the only player that will satisfy you in the draft.

Coming to you live from the land of interim coaches.

by LeaguePassAddict on Dec 29, 2008 2:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

No salient points in a time of confusion, madam.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Dec 29, 2008 11:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

From the guy who thinks a 3rd string PG on a bad team

is our savior and says it all the time.

and LPA – as ian says below, the guy is a monster.

Is it fair to call me out on my current infatuation if you don’t call out Pookey and whoever keeps calling for Rubio? Its Ironic:)

"You keep on using that word
I do not think it mean what you think it means"

by lietothegirls on Dec 30, 2008 9:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There is a difference between how you point out you like Thabeet

And how I point out why I want Mike Conley Jr. (And Conley is an accomplished basketball player, who proved his worth time & time again at the HS level, he was a McDonalds All American among other things, and again when he was @ OSU. The guy didn’t get drafted 4th overall cuz he played with Oden.)

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Dec 30, 2008 9:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

you must understand

Thabeet is not just another player to be drafted. He is the one hope, the only hope. Imagine Greg Oden with symmetric legs and good knees. His name ties him to the ancestral great: Kareem, Hakeem, Hasheem – he is greatness reincarnate. He is tall enough to have a conversation with Yao Ming, let him look down at all the other centers. Can he dunk? check. Can he block? check. Can he rebound? You might as well ask if he can pick apples from a tree, grapes from a vine, clouds from the sky. He coaches well, he learns well, he’ll probably take the rim down.

Plus, dudette. Imagine being able to say that the Kings frontcourt consists of 7’3" and growing, 7’ and growing, 6’11" and growing. And they’d all be mobile. wowsers.

Also, we need Jennings. Not because of his point guard play, but just because of the high top fade. You know it’ll start a revolution. Everyone knows Martin is down, Greene’s as good as in, Jason Thompson will ride the wave, Cisco’s got no choice. It’d be awesome, it’d be hilarious, we’d have to bring Chris Webber in as a big man coach so he can rock it too.

Donte? Donte'! Donté?!?!
'spect da 'xtra E'

by iashwash on Dec 30, 2008 7:35 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs

You sir, if nothing else, are classic

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Dec 30, 2008 8:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Fuckin' A iaswash

you tell ’em.

"You keep on using that word
I do not think it mean what you think it means"

by lietothegirls on Dec 30, 2008 9:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand the guy is good.

I just don’t want to have his name screamed (figuratively speaking) at me every time I read a thread.

It has been recorded previously in the annals of StR that lietothegirls has a marked preference for Thabeet. Good. I like the kid, too.

And I wasn’t calling anybody out for a player preference, simply on the somewhat annoying (Tha-) beating of the same drum.

But even if we lose every game for the rest of the season (which thought makes me want to run screaming into the night) those nasty ping pong balls have to bounce in our direction for us to have the chance to draft the guy. And I would feel a lot more confident that they would do so if said ping pong balls were drawn in an open, televised forum instead of behind closed doors.

Coming to you live from the land of interim coaches.

by LeaguePassAddict on Dec 30, 2008 9:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

simply asking for equal treatment

or is it too ironic?

"You keep on using that word
I do not think it mean what you think it means"

by lietothegirls on Dec 30, 2008 11:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Besides - and I really want this silly fight over

my repetition is a projection into the future, where I seem to hear Thabeeeeet! rumbling just like that through ARCO

That hope keeps me warm on these cold nights.

"You keep on using that word
I do not think it mean what you think it means"

by lietothegirls on Dec 30, 2008 11:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Be careful what you ask for

JOOOEEE!!!

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Dec 31, 2008 9:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Fight?

I’m not fighting. I’m complaining. Which, obviously, you are free to completely disregard.

I will try to either keep my complaining to a minimum, or spread it around evenly, kinda like horse manure, which is what my opinion on other people’s posts is generally worth.

But your complaining about my little snark about your Thabeet-screaming posts makes your entire rant about the meaning of ironic seem much like the pot calling the kettle black.

Coming to you live from the land of interim coaches.

by LeaguePassAddict on Dec 31, 2008 10:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs