Worse Than It Looks
by Ziller on Dec 4, 2008 2:24 PM PST
in Numbers
88 comments
I'm a big believer in points margin as a team-level indicator because, well, it works. Wins and losses obviously tell you a lot the quality of teams. But you can trick the W-L ledger -- with some lucky close wins, a mediocre team can look decent; with some unlucky bad losses, a good team can look average. Using margin, we pump the differentiation. And as I said, it's a great indicator. Boston blew everyone out of the water with its 2007-08 points margin.
It's not a hard concept, either: It's your points minus your opponent's points. (Understand why is an effective tool yet?) If we were to take the Kings points margin after 20 games and compare it other Kings teams of the past 15 years, we'd find it's the second worst mark behind 1996-97. The Kings have been outscored by 147 points this year, which means the average Kings performance to date has been a 7.35-point loss. (Only two teams are worse this year: OKC at -10.95 and LAC at -8.17.)
But this gross glimpse is just, well, gross. I think visually, so I compared the rolling points margin for each of the past 15 Kings teams to see how bad this is going to get.
The wrinkle here: each line represents a team's season points margin after each game. If you win, the line heads north briefly. If you lose, it's south. String together some wins, and you end up like the 2000-2005 teams. Pull off a losing streak and its 1996-97, 1997-98 or ... 2008-09. We're in the red line right now, just outpacing the awful '96-97 year in which Garry St. Jean met his maker and Eddie Jordan finished 6-9 to earn himself a year at the helm. That year with Eddie? Good ol' '97-98, the worst Kings season in the past 15 years.
If you'll remember, Jordan's season got out of hand quickly in the second half (verified by the chart). It was bad all year -- offensively bad. But it was a complete, complete disaster the last few months. Really inconceivably terrible. That summer, Jordan got the quick ax. And the team began its upward swing.
Is this team that bad? Mitch Richmond, Corliss Williamson, Anthony Johnson and Yogi Stewart, with some Olden Polynice, Terry Dehere and Lawrence Funderburke thrown in. Heck, a 33-year-old Otis Thorpe started 20 games for that team! I get sick thinking about watching that squad on KMAX-31. I had mono the last month of the season. I had nothing to do but watch that team. I hated it.
Obviously, I don't feel that way today, not with Kevin Martin, Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson and Donté Greene hitting the court. The team looks to be every bit as bad -- possibly worse, as this version is on track for 20 wins; the '97-98 squad won 27. But that'd involve things remaining this bleak all season. That'd involve the team giving up.
Whatever our qualms with Theus and the players in the rotation, they don't give up. They make mistakes, defend horribly, and make mistakes, and defend horribly. But they don't give up.
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so blow it up now, why wait til 2010?
Brad, K-9, Shelden, Salmons, and our Houston pick to Raptors for O’Neal and Bargani. O’Neal bolts after this season, we’d be about $20M under cap next summer with trade chips galore… plus O’Neal might prefer a sign-and-trade considering his FA options. Would Toronto do it? why not? O’Neal hasn’t meshed with Bosh (two low-post guys) and they have no producton from the 3 and didn’t coangelo try to get Salmons when he was with Phoenix? They get two good starters, that fit with their team. Plus, they don’t give up big contracts that would interfere with their attempt to keep Bosh in 2010. (all but Salmons expire that year or before). We get O’Neal to start with SHawes, waiting for JT to start next year, Bargnani as a good experiment and/or trade chit ($5M for this and next year) and get to move forward with Cisco and Donte at the 3. Finally, i’d still do the Mikki for Reddick deal with Orlando to provide backup at the 2.
by longtimelistenerfirsttimecaller on Dec 4, 2008 2:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I get what you're saying...
But Toronto just axed Mitchell because they want to create a winning environment in order to retain Bosh. That doesn’t exactly feel any better swapping, essentially, Miller for O’Neal. Granted I haven’t seen O’Neal play much this year, but playing with Miller is not making Bosh want to stay either…
If yr not happy with the results, lower yr expectations.
by tokyo on Dec 4, 2008 2:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
Miller would be a better fit. Bosh and O’Neal both love playing in the low post. Miller likes to play in the high post which would complement Bosh quite well
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Dec 4, 2008 2:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And...
Salmons adds a nice punch. They wanted him during free agency anyway but we got him instead and he’s outperformed all expectations.
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Dec 4, 2008 2:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll stick with Salmons
He’s the Kings best two way player now. He can score, defend and has great versatility.
John Salmons is the real deal. You’d have to make Petrie an offer that knocks off his socks if you want him to part with John Salmons.
BOOK IT!
by kingme18 on Dec 4, 2008 4:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Funny thing is
We were all for trading Miller and some filler contracts for Shawn Marion, who is an expiring cancerous douche bag. The proposed trade here is for an even bigger expiring and also gets rid of our worst contract in K9. That means K9 and Miller are off the books at the end of the year. Plus, O’Neal is way less of a cancerous douche bag. On top of that, it opens up a ton of PT for Shock and Hawes, which is a nickname that’ll never stick with Jerry calling Miller and Hawes the “Ivory Towers.” Sure, losing Salmons kind sucks, but he’s not really part of our future.
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Dec 4, 2008 10:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
like Bargani but will Tor give up their #1
What about MIA revisited?
Miller,K9 & Douby for Marion,D.Wright,C.Quinn & J.Anthony.AFTER DEC.15th
Both teams go/stay under LUXTAX,Mia opens a roster spot for Starbury.
SAC after MIA after
Udrih,Quinn,Brown Chalmers,Banks,Livingston
Martin,Garcia,Jackson(trade bait) Wade,Cook,Douby
Salmons,Green,Wright Beasley,Diawara,Jones(inj.)
Marion,Thompson,Williams Haslem,K.Thomas,
Hawes,Anthony,Moore(trade bait) Miller,Magloire,Blount
by hudson101 on Dec 5, 2008 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry about the MESS!
Had this all spaced out on bottom ,my bad!
by hudson101 on Dec 5, 2008 11:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
we were all for it?
I think not
Cisco? Cisco? CISCO!!!! #*$!%! !
by lietothegirls on Dec 6, 2008 2:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
and this is the scenario that Brad needs to be in, playing alongside a guy who can block shots, because he obviously can’t protect the paint. Brad might get 10 assists a night in Toronto.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 5, 2008 7:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
Bosh actually spends a lot of time starting at the high post, or even closer to the three line playing a kind of SF with a very nice outside-shot. On the other hand, Salmons would help Raptors a lot
by KingsFanfromCentralEurope on Dec 6, 2008 8:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ummmm
I got an idea. Let’s all complain about PT for Shawes & JT, so we can trade for Jermaine O’Neal, and continue to have 17 millions to cockblock 2 kids under 23 years of age. Brilliant!
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 4, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
testy testy...
I don’t think having JT start this year is that big a priority… i think it is a priority next year. Nonetheless, my proposal removes 2 roadblocks to his minutes NOW (brad and mikki) and replaces with one (JO) who will be gone in 5 months… Bargani either backs up Shawes next year or more likely is traded in the attempt to use the cap space.
by longtimelistenerfirsttimecaller on Dec 4, 2008 3:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Uhh...
dude! Seriously? There’s 96 minutes to be divided up front. Currently its divided amongst four guys: Miller, Hawes, Moore, JT. The proposed trade gets rid of two of those guys for another front court guy, thus dividing time amongst 3 front court guys. Shelden and K9 will be gone to there’s no chance they’re getting minutes. However, this does raise one big concern. We’d have a fairly solid 3 man front court rotation, but no backups. That could be trouble since Jermaine O’Neal has been nursing the same boo boo on his knee for the past 3 god damn years.
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Dec 4, 2008 4:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yep
Cisco? Cisco? CISCO!!!! #*$!%! !
by lietothegirls on Dec 6, 2008 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Raptors are my favorite team after Kings
And after few minutes of thinking I am afraid I say no for both sides.
To start JO along with Hawes would not be as hurting for JT as pookey mentions, partially because JO would be hurt for much of the season and because JT might be better to have to fight for his spot. However, if Bargnani should be included in such a deal (as the only real piece apart from the salary space), you should not forget that although he starts at three in Toronto, he is rather a (not-enough-so-far-unfortunately) versatile big man and spends most of time at 4 and 5. Actually, he primarily plays 3 because Raptors are at the moment terrible at wings. Hence, I am not sure if it is worth of it, particularly if Houston’s pick should be included.
On the other hand, Toronto traded for JO for a particular purpose, and it was not an offensive weapon in him (as they considered Bosh and Calderon being enough with an army of sharp shooters in Kapono, Parker and Bargnani – take a look at Raptors’ shooting percentage in 2007/2008). They just needed a strong low-post defender who would enable Bosh to get rid of losing energy with strong centers (that he is not capable of dealing with). JO is a distinctive upgrade over Rasho Nesterovic, moreover is offensive game is not so much efficient, but he is a threat, plus he is strictly low-post oriented making much space for Bosh.
While Salmons would be a sure pick for Toronto, their inside game (along with already terrible rebounding) would be damaged even more than it is.
by KingsFanfromCentralEurope on Dec 6, 2008 8:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you for saying this TZ
Because I’ve been alluding to it can be worse, and the 97 98 season is what came directly to mind. Yes, this team has many problems, and yes it’s making it awful to watch. But even with all that, they still care. That 97 98 team after January really didn’t.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 4, 2008 2:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
So What You're saying TZ...
Is that we have to be patient with this team. Wait about five games once everybody’s healthy and then judge the outcome? There’s no way it will be the worst season in franchise history seeing as we have yet to be 100% healthy and we have a team who is still putting effort into their game.
Which means we should have some entertaining basket ball in Jan-Feb-March, fingers crossed.
If yr not happy with the results, lower yr expectations.
by tokyo on Dec 4, 2008 2:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
We're horrible!
but still fun to watch. I think there will be a point in this season where Theus, assuming he still has a job, just decides that we’re not going to do anything so he might as well play the youngsters as much as possible. Once he just throws them out there together and lets them mesh as a team and make mistakes to learn and gain experience we’ll get a realy glimpse at the future. Granted, the youngsters have had quite a bit of PT but I would love to see more. i’m perfectly okay with losing as long as Kevin scores like mad, Cisco does the mean face, JT starts beating guys up (figuratively of course), and Hawes makes us forget who Brad Miller and Vlade Divac are.
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Dec 4, 2008 3:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Vlade who?
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 4, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why not?
He sells fake Gucci on Fair Oaks, I say flip you.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 4, 2008 10:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to forget
who Brad Miller is.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 5, 2008 7:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't agree with that
Brad is/was an useful thing to Sacramento. He is a quality player who doesn’t have a future anymore. At some point, now or in a month or two, it will be time to move on. But saying yo’ud like to forget him? I don’t agree with that.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 6, 2008 8:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Brad is
the cup is half full/the cup is half empty. Unfortunately, these days are far more disappointing than any heroics he has supplied, which have always been mixed in with bonehead technicals, bad Brad moments (and pouts) and a general lack of physical play. Forgetaboutit.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 6, 2008 5:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Quick Fact
In the seven game losing streak, the Kings have played the following teams:
Utah (12-8) twice
LA Lakers (15-2)
Portland twice (14-6)
New Jersey
Dallas (9-8)
Before that, the Kings beat New Orleans after losing by two to both Phoenix (11-8) and San Antonio (9-8). Granted many of these teams were missing some of their key players but ALL of those games (except Tuesday’s game) were without K-Mart. Realistically, the Kings are not going to win many of those games. At home, they should win a couple but did we really expect 5-5 or better? 4-6? Yes, the losses have been in frustrating ways but I am still hopeful that once Kevin and Cisco are back to full health (with the rest of the team healthy too) and with the schedule getting a BIT easier, the Kings should start getting some wins.
"Oh, boy! This website is very good. Hey, let's talk about the Raiders!" - "Peaches" Napier
by dalt99 on Dec 4, 2008 3:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
That's a lot of caveats
And you forgot to list New Jersey’s record. And note that many of these games were at home. And that in some of those games the Kings absolutely got their doors blown.
But otherwise, I agree with you. ;)
P.S. No amount of sugarcoating can make a 5-15 record look good…lord knows I with there were…
"Don't sweat the petty stuff and don't pet the sweaty stuff." - My Dad, confusing me at a very young age.
by otis29 on Dec 4, 2008 3:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True
Good points but I guess my point is that in the ’96-97 year, the Kings had Mitch Richmond for EVERY game of the year but one and they still got hosed. The Kings have just played 10 games against 10 teams above .500. New Jersey is 9-8 right now. Yes the Kings have been blown out a few times but have also had 5 games decided by one basket. So I am not that worried yet. I agree that point differential is important, however just like the W-L stat, point differencial can be misleading too. An injury plagued team can skew the stats to make it seem the team is worse than they are.
"Oh, boy! This website is very good. Hey, let's talk about the Raiders!" - "Peaches" Napier
by dalt99 on Dec 4, 2008 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I want to give this team till January
Till I throw anybody off the wagon, cept Mikki Moore. He’s already been voted off in Pookeyguru world. (Maybe Hello Kitty backpack too, depending on the cap relief/draft pick/young player coming in return.)
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 4, 2008 10:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Or...
You could say…
Our wins were against:
Minnesota (4 wins), one against the Kings
Golden State (5 wins)
Memphis (4 wins) and one against the Kings
LA Clippers (3 wins)
New Orleans
BOOK IT!
by kingme18 on Dec 4, 2008 4:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True
Again I am not saying the Kings are a .500 team when healthy, just that they are not a 25% win team and as bad as the ’96-97 season. Is that hard to understand?
Also, all of those wins were still wins. Most of them without either Kevin Martin, Brad Miller and Francisco Garcia. Most of them without two of those players. The Kings have had one of the most difficult schedules in the league (17 games, 5 back-to-backs in November) and have been plagued by injuries. The only real worry is that the Kings seem to be having problems winning close games and making shots in critical moments. Again though the two top clutch players (Martin and Garcia) were out for all those games except the first game in Minnesota.
"Oh, boy! This website is very good. Hey, let's talk about the Raiders!" - "Peaches" Napier
by dalt99 on Dec 5, 2008 10:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the one point I would make
It seems that some people here (not necessarily you dalt) are making a leap of faith – we’ve had injuries, therefore this team’s record would be significantly better if they were healthy. We don’t really know that either way, to be honest. I would assume a few games difference maybe, but nothing substantial.
I have no problem saying that the jury is still out on Theus as a coach due to the injury problems this season. But I do have a problem with the idea that this team should not be better than it currently is. There are tangible, quantifiable issues with Theus’ performance this year that have nothing to do with injuries. And if we are making decisions on which players will be part of the finished product in two to three years time, we have to make that decision on the coach as well.
This team stinks right now, and in my opinion stinks way worse than it should. And if we can’t evaluate Theus until he’s had a healthy squad…what if that doesn’t happen? You just keep a coach around indefinitely? That makes no sense.
At some point, you have to look at the areas the coach actually has an impact on – game prep, substitution patterns, play calling – and evaluate whether what you see is going to work long-term, regardless of the players on the floor.
"Don't sweat the petty stuff and don't pet the sweaty stuff." - My Dad, confusing me at a very young age.
by otis29 on Dec 5, 2008 10:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Another way to look at things
The record, when dividing the wins into losses, makes for a nice neat fraction, and hence, a mathematically correct number (1/3).
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 4, 2008 3:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
isn't that
1/4? Maybe, I’m not following ya.
Anyway, a fucking .25 winning percentage?! Holy shit that is bad!!!! I hadn’t realize it was that bad until Otis pointed out our record.
by Kusian on Dec 4, 2008 3:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
oooh....
dividing wins into losses……duh! my bad.
by Kusian on Dec 4, 2008 3:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Welcome back to the land of the living sir
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 4, 2008 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
The chart tells us that we’ve turned this franchise around…360 degrees.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Dec 4, 2008 4:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Oooh!
I got that. No, really, I did. And I’m blonde.
Let's go home.-Kevin Martin
by LeaguePassAddict on Dec 4, 2008 6:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No fair you have 720 degreez of ditz advantage on us!
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 4, 2008 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Probably about time
for some with, without Artest numbers … oh yeah, I forgot, it wasn’t going to make much of a difference because of John Salmons. LOL.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 5, 2008 7:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah -
Ron would be thriving in this environment…
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Dec 6, 2008 9:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They clearly wouldn't be
5-15.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 6, 2008 5:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With all due respect
If you like him so much and always seem to bring him up why don’t you become a Rockets fan and discuss his impact in their forum
by eduardo_m7 on Dec 6, 2008 5:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
Let’s not discuss any past Kings players then.
I probably haven’t mentioned the guy three times this season, but who’s counting.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 6, 2008 5:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He'll be sniffing Ron-Ron's jock while the Kings record stinks
But when the real Artest shows up (and blows up) in Houston, CCR will magically disappear for some time. It will probably be work related, lemme tell ya.
"Don't sweat the petty stuff and don't pet the sweaty stuff." - My Dad, confusing me at a very young age.
by otis29 on Dec 6, 2008 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If you take a quick glance at Artest's current numbers
He leads the team in shot attempts per game, while his FG% is tenth on the team.
He’s turned into a chucker, and that’s on a good team where he shouldn’t feel like he has to take the offense on his shoulders.
Let's go home.-Kevin Martin
by LeaguePassAddict on Dec 6, 2008 1:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
If we hadn’t traded Artest we’d have 8-9 wins right now on our way to a high 30s-low 40s win season, another crappy lottery pick and another year wasted before really starting to rebuild. I like where we are much better, of course I’d like where we are even more without Moore, Miller and K9.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Dec 6, 2008 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Amen brotha!
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 7, 2008 6:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't looked closely
but early this season on he wasn’t shooting much and wasn’t shooting well. It looks like he’s putting it up more now and is starting to become more of an offensive option for the Rockets. Hard to fault his last effort.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 6, 2008 5:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But hard to credit
Someone who takes more shots per game than Yao or TMac, but has the worst shooting percentage of anyone who takes more than five shots per game.
It’s what we saw here, times five. He thinks he’s Kobe, and that the offense needs to run through him.
Do I think he’s a legit offensive weapon? Yes.
Do I think he is a legit franchise player? No.
Does Artest think he’s a legit franchise player? Yes.
And that is the problem.
Let's go home.-Kevin Martin
by LeaguePassAddict on Dec 6, 2008 7:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and which games would he decide to be too injured to play (2 hours before gametime)
but at least he would gaurantee a playoff appearance
by betweentheeyes on Dec 7, 2008 12:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ironically Eddie Jordan got fired this year...
His fate will always be tied to the Kings, although in all honesty if he were hired next year I would be absolutely fine with that.
There now I've met the 75 word count. -pookeyguru
by moproblemz on Dec 4, 2008 4:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The Eddie Jordan that got fired in 1998
And the Eddie Jordan that “could” get hired in 2009 are 2 different coaches.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 4, 2008 10:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
The issue isn’t the awfulness, I think the issue is the way we’ve been awful. I’d say 110% of the time losing games in squeakers is infinitely more frustrating than just chronically getting blown out. If for no other reason then it exacerbates already held irritations (Theus’ rotations, Douby’s shooting, Udrih’s turnovers etc.)
by rbiegler on Dec 4, 2008 4:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
One (admittedly overly) simple way to think about it....
is this. To seriously contend for the NBA title you’ve pretty much got to have. the following four ingredients:
1) At least three All-Star level players who compliment each other’s skills. (eg; Garnett, Pierce and Allen; C-Webb, Peja and Vlade; Isiah, Rodman, Laimbeer; etc. etc;).
2) A system (especially on offense) that the team buys into that fits the talent on the team. In theory you also have a compitent head coach who can implement the system and make sure the players buy into it.
3) The ability and the desire to play tough defense for extended periods of a game.
4) Some nice role players, and particularly a mixture of youth and experience in those roles.
There you go, the Magic Formula.
Right now the Kings have exactly one All-Star level player. (Yes, I know Brad Miller was an All-Star at one time, but that memory is fading fast).
We also have some nice role players in Cisco, and Udrih. (Salmons could also be a guy like that, but he fancies himself a full-time NBA starter, which unfortunately he is not.)
That’s about it, other than some young guys who might develop into very good or possibly even All Star level talent. Thompson has high upside and Hawes might too, although I’m starting to think he’s more of a 4 than a 5. That’s not a bad thing, but at some point somebody on this team is gonna have to mix it up inside and play low post defense.
Anyway, on the bright side, the 2009 draft will present an opportunity to add All Star level talent #2, and the Kings’ improving salary cap situation in a year or two should provide the ability to add a true All Star level talent.
We had a very long run of winning teams here in Sacramento, and we forget just how difficult it is to sustain that kind of success without benefit of high draft picks. Every franchise has to re-group and re-build once in a while. Some teams (the Knicks, for example) wander in the desert for many many years.
I do think GP is heading things in the general right direction, but meanwhile this is a team that will flounder and lose a lot.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
by Mucho Moss on Dec 4, 2008 4:53 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
check the stats before making statement
“(Salmons could also be a guy like that, but he fancies himself a full-time NBA starter, which unfortunately he is not.)”
19.2 pts
3.6 rebounds
3.1 assists
very good defender
I’m sorry but the data suggests a very competent starting NBA SF. He may not be an All-Star, but he is also not some 10 – 15 min per game role player. Salmons has not received nearly enough credit for his abilities.
by Kusian on Dec 4, 2008 5:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Stats...
I’ll agree that with K Mart out Salmons has stepped up and filled some of the scoring vacuum very nicely, and the stats you mention are a reflection of that.
He’s a good scorer and for the most part a solid all around player. I guess what I should have said was, sure, John Salmons can start if you need him to, but I don’t think that makes the best use of his abilities.
When Salmons comes off the bench in the right situations he creates serious match-up problems for opponents and changes the pace of the game. He can really make things happen. But when he’s in there for extended periods against stronger players his weakness as a rebounder becomes a liability and it seems like he loses focus quite a bit.
Again, I like Salmons’ game, Kusian, and with more experienced, more physical players around him he could help a good team win some games. But on this roster his considerable skills are wasted to some degree.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
by Mucho Moss on Dec 4, 2008 6:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
just crystallized this thought: Salmons has to go
I admire his two-way game, but:
(1) he complements no one and has a game that will never complement anyone else’s
(2) he can’t be the Vinnie Johnson or BoJax role player who comes in and is productive even though he complements no one…because he refuses to come off the bench
Unless he got a lot more efficient in the clutch at either finishing or drawing fouls, or suddenly became a better than average playmaker (and thus Doug Christie-like), then he’s never going to be a piece that fits.
Sometimes you get addition through subtraction and my gut tells me that despite all of Johnny’s good character and skills, he’s a guy you just need to trade away for something that fits better.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
by Holmdel on Dec 4, 2008 8:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
unpopular thought number two
KMart can be the Ray Allen or Reggie Miller type scorer to complement your two other All-Star caliber players, but if he’s your best player, you’re not a contender.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
by Holmdel on Dec 4, 2008 8:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't disagree
with your unpopular thought, Holmdel. I think you make a good point.
This franchise has a long way to go, and building around the 2 guard only gets you so far down the road.
We need a game-changer in the front court, a guy who can take over games inside. Maybe Blake Griffin is that guy. Maybe we sign someone like a Chris Bosh. Maybe Jason Thompson has two more gears beyond what he’s already shown flashes of so far.
But whoever it turns out to, we better get him up and running while Kevin Martin is in his prime because without such a presence inside, Sacramento is going to remain a pretender.
We also need a true point guard, but now I’m repeating myself…
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
by Mucho Moss on Dec 4, 2008 11:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Point #2
the thing about Salmons being less than enthusiastic about coming off the bench is the gist of what I was trying to say.
He’s a good player in the right situation, but the best way to take advantage of that is to swing him in and out of the line-up according to match-ups. And he just doesn’t seem to dig that kind of role very much. I guess I wouldn’t go so far as to say he “refuses” to come off the bench, a la K-9 (“woof”!), but Salmons clearly sees himself as an NBA starter.
Any team that traded for him would have to deal with that.
Anyway, sounds like you and I are on the same page about Salmons…
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
by Mucho Moss on Dec 4, 2008 11:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure Salmons is a guy you can win with. He obviously has skills, but he kills ball movement every time the rock come to him and inevitably looks to get his.
by Chris Mullin on Dec 5, 2008 9:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Stats are only the value of the ability of one player
Salmons is not at all a team player. On way too many occasions have I seen him hog the ball. In no way have I seen him complimenting anyone else. He’s also shown on 2 occasions that he isn’t clutch.
He can score, he can defend, and can play combo SG/SF. I almost think of him like a poor man’s Ron Artest.
His game is 1 on 1, not a team game. That’s what I don’t like about Salmons.
by CloudyEyes on Dec 5, 2008 4:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
not a team player?
You could make all the same criticisms of Kevin Martin but don’t. Kevin isn’t exactly a facilitator for everyone else.
The fact is, most small forwards and shooting guards are on the team to be at the end of the ball movement, not the beginning. Generally, they are among your best scorers so the goal of the offense is to get them good opportunities. Salmons is very good because when he gets opportunities to score, he is very, very good at cashing them in. People may not like his style, because it involves driving to the rim and isn’t pretty, but you can’t deny how effective he is.
The only legit complaint about Salmons this year, is he’s a bad rebounder for a small forward. The pounding of the ball into the court has been much more restrained this year. Salmons is an average starting forward in this league right now, and much better than people give him credit for.
by ForThree on Dec 5, 2008 5:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You can’t really compare Martin and Salmons in any way. Kevin is a borderline franchise player and Salmons is a role player at best.
Today Dimemag.com is arguing that K-Mart is better than Vince, a thought I 100% agree with:
http://dimemag.com/2008/12/whos-better-kevin-martin-or-vince-carter/
by Chris Mullin on Dec 5, 2008 9:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We have to agree to disagree
Salmons is a “role-player at best” when he is 10th in PER for small forwards this year and in the top 5 of any that play significant minutes in effective FG%.
I wasn’t intending to compare Martin to Salmons as players, my intention is to compare their roles. Their role on this team is to be the guys who get the shots. They are the ones everyone else passes around to so they get a good opportunity. When they have the opportunity, they are both very, very good at cashing in. Look at the numbers.
by ForThree on Dec 5, 2008 10:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Franchise player?
Maybe on a weak franchise, but not on a top team. Let him play in an All-Star game once.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 5, 2008 7:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think of Martin as a Ray Allen or at best a Reggie Miller
by CloudyEyes on Dec 6, 2008 12:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Both potential HOF'ers
I can live with that.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Dec 6, 2008 1:26 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Me too
I just wish Kevin could stay healthy.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Dec 7, 2008 6:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Salmons is actually NOT very very good at cashing in opportunities...
…and that is why I distinguish him from KMart. The thing you need from a one-on-one scorer is efficiency. Either the guy finishes or he draws a foul 2/3 of the time. If Salmons could get his game to that point, then he’d be somebody to build around. Right now, in the fourth quarter, Salmons cashes in less than 1/2 the time and that’s not good enough.
KMart shows much more promise being a guy who can either finish or get to the line 2/3 of the time he’s taking it one-on-one.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
by Holmdel on Dec 5, 2008 10:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So far this year
The only starting small forwards with a higher true shooting percentage than Salmons are: Matt Barnes, AK47, Lebron and Danny Granger. His overall shooting % is over 50% which is outstanding for a small forward; its the highest in the league for any starter.
The grass isn’t always greener on the other side, sometimes the players you have actually are better than you think they are.
by ForThree on Dec 5, 2008 10:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
but how is he at drawing fouls? how is he at finishing one-on-one...
…against a packed in defense in the fourth quarter?
Not very. The stats for four quarters are pretty favorable for John. But the stats for the fourth quarter are not.
If one of your starters’ offense is limited to one-on-one play, he’s got to be able to finish or draw fouls in the fourth quarter, or he’s not the guy you need.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
by Holmdel on Dec 5, 2008 10:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because its Friday afternoon
And my employer already has gotten more than their fair share of work from me this week, out of curiousity, I went looking for an answer to your question.
The best I can find is in Clutch Situations (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points), Salmons FG% is 53.8% and eFG% is 57.7%, higher than his normal numbers, which are already great.
Salmons is also almost twice as likely to draw a foul in Clutch situations as he is on average. Stats are from:
http://www.82games.com/0809/08SAC6.HTM
Bear in mind I am new to 82games.com and not real sure of their stats, but I think I am reading them correctly.
by ForThree on Dec 5, 2008 10:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
those stats confound me
I just played around a bit with them and they say Salmons last year had a higher pct. drawing fouls in the clutch than Kobe. (Of course, smaller sample size.)
I don’t know. I appreciate your stats and can’t deny them, but my gut still tells me: I’ve seen KMart function as a complementary player (last two seasons) and I’ve seen him work well within an offense without bogging it down, but Salmons bogs it down. Even when he’s good, he’s got everyone else standing around – which is not good. Maybe the metric I need is something like: How many seconds of dribbling/holding the ball before teammates die a little inside? vs. How many seconds does John typically dribble/hold onto the ball?
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
by Holmdel on Dec 5, 2008 12:24 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Martin is a team player, Salmons is not
Whenever Martin gets the ball, he doesn’t drive straight to the hoop with it. He’s unselfish with the ball. Unlike Salmons, Martin moves without the Basketball and creates open opportunities for himself. One of the big trademark things with Martin is people have been riding his back, telling him to be MORE selfish with the ball, because he’s historically been unselfish with it.
On too many occasions have I just seen Salmons standing around…and THEN drive to the basket, without even considering passing to anyone else. Prime example is a few games ago when he went in for the game winner. About 5 seconds left on the clock. He drives into like 5 freakin defenders…everyone else WIDE open…and he decides to take the shot.
Yes, they’re both scorers. However, Salmons wants to create opportunities for himself. Martin creates opportunities with his team.
I don’t see your connection you’re trying to draw.
by CloudyEyes on Dec 5, 2008 4:03 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Here are my thoughts on the matter:
au contra ire
by JediLeroy on Dec 4, 2008 5:40 PM PST reply actions 14 recs
Brilliant!
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Dec 4, 2008 7:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh my god
Rec’d forever. I might create a few sockpuppets to rec and rec again.
by Ziller on Dec 4, 2008 5:45 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
not to kiss the Boss's ass but
have to rec the sockpuppets image
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
by Holmdel on Dec 4, 2008 8:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sucks now/ cool later
So we all knew going into this that this year wasnt exactly going to be awesome. We got Greene in the trade and still have another pic from Houston next year. JT, Hawes, and even Brown are doing better than we hoped for right now.
This year isnt going to be great but we will have a decent pick, still be better than the thunder. We have future cap space, young talent, and its only up from here.
Plus- we may bitch about Moore but it could be worse and we could have a k-9 sighting!
by Hilton on Dec 4, 2008 10:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Karma
Watch that “K9 sighting” sh*t. He could show up at a game that you attend.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Dec 4, 2008 10:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Perfect time for Jimmy V week
…they don’t give up. They make mistakes, defend horribly, and make mistakes, and defend horribly. But they don’t give up.
when will the Kenny Thomas Reign of Terror end?!!??
by diehardkingsfan5 on Dec 5, 2008 1:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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