Mythbusters: Kevin Martin's Not Clutch?
I keep hearing people say Kevin Martin needs to step up, needs to be more clutch, needs to take the game by its haunches and.... You know.
To me, it looks silly, all this "Kevin's soft" and "Kevin's not clutch" and "Kevin's not the second coming of Christ." Two of those three statements are inaccurate; the third is questionable. Thus, the first ever edition of Mythbusters: Sactown.
Assertion #1: Kevin Martin disappears in crunch time.
Test: Does Kevin Martin take fewer shots than normal in crunch time (defined as 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team leading by more than 5 points)?
Answer: No. According to 82games, Martin takes 19.8 FGAs and 18 FTAs per 48 minutes of crunch time -- or about 0.57 shots per minute. In all Martin's playing time, he takes an average of 15.2 FGAs and 8.4 FTAs per 48 minutes -- or about 0.39 shots per minute. Clearly, he is more aggressive in crunch time.
Assertion #2: Kevin Martin chokes in crunch time.
Test: Does Kevin Martin shoot worse in crunch time than overall?
Answer: No. Kevin's crunch time eFG% is .534. His overall eFG% is .523. He shoots better in crunch time than usual. In fact, the .534 crunch time eFG% is higher than those of: Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, Brandon Roy and Dwyane Wade ... and it is .005 lower than LeBron James. Kobe, Melo, Roy, Wade and LBJ are all considered clutch. Martin's clutch shooting exceeds those of the first four and is half-a-shot lower than the other. So how is Martin not clutch?
Visual evidence Kevin Martin is not "soft" nor a "choker" who "disappears."
Does anyone need some more evidence, or can we retire this myth?
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Lay it to rest
This guy is so much better (offensively) than the next best guy on the team (take your choice), and he has hit some big shots at a relatively young age, especially when you take into account how long he has been a starter.
I'm a season ticket holder no matter what. Kevin Martin helps justify the expense.
Trade em', trade em' all!
Kevin Martin is the best thing to happen to this here franchise since the Webber-Richmond trade. Given the opportunity as the main offensive weapon, Kevin prove his worth as an elite shooting guard in the league.
Good work TZ, I will run off a cliff lemming style with you any day.
by jjham15 @ Sactown Royalty on Feb 11, 2008 4:09 PM PST reply actions
This one time? On trade machine?
Funny guy. And I agree with the serious part of your post, although I refuse to follow TZ off a cliff, lemming style.
Until maybe? Next year?
by KK on Feb 11, 2008 7:51 PM PST up reply actions
I think that peope say he disappears
He's plenty clutch, though. I was at that S.A. playoff game. Never gets old watching it again.
by TerrenceLongsTaint on Feb 11, 2008 4:11 PM PST reply actions
YES
by 27freethrows on Feb 11, 2008 4:55 PM PST up reply actions
Finally
Also, thank you for giving us a reason to watch that clip against the Spurs in the playoffs. Sitting in bed with the flu, I needed that.
i wonder...
by kingsfaninjapan on Feb 11, 2008 5:04 PM PST reply actions
Yes
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 12, 2008 7:04 AM PST up reply actions
Mythbuster A Victim of Bad Stats?
I think you made a mistake, because the stats you cited for crunch time are per 48 minutes while the overall stats are per game.
Martin averages 36:47 minutes per game, so if you convert that to per 48 minutes, you'll find he takes 19.8 shots per 48 minutes. In other words, he takes exactly the same number of shots in crunch time as he takes overall.
You also neglected to mention that Kevin shoots 79.3% on free throws in crunch time vs. 86.2% overall.
I also came up with different free throw numbers than the ones you offered. I show from the same pages at 82games that he averages 11.2 free throws per 48 minutes overall and that jumps up to 19.8 free throws per 48 minutes in crunch time, which makes a lot of sense since he's the guy we want to have shooting free throws down the stretch if we are protecting a lead.
As you indicated, he does shoot slightly better in crunch time, making an extra 11 shots per 1,000 attempted over his regular output.
I'm still trying to find those 4th quarter scoring numbers. 82games emailed me back and said they would probably do something on that soon, but my guess is they would limit that to the top 10.
I know based on the link to the top 10 in 4th quarter scoring that I posted yesterday that may have prompted your "Mythbuster" that he averages less than 5.3 points in the fourth quarter, which means his average in the fourth quarter is less than his average in the first three quarters.
I did get the game recaps from BasketballValue.com's download page and am in the prcocess of manually figuring out his fourth quarter scoring. That will probably take me a few days, but those play by play logs are definitely interesting in any case. It's in a text file that you download after clicking the link "All 2007-2008 data." The text file is called playbyplay200802120658.txt.
They also have a couple of text files with their player stats rankings based on their version of plus-minus. It's an easy cut and paste to Excel for sorting as you wish.
Doing that, I found Kevin Martin ranks 132th out of 184 NBA players who have played at least 1,000 minutes this year. Brad Miller ranks 3rd, while Artest is 37th.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 12, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions
Nice work...
TZ, I have never been one to say that Martin isnt clucth. However, I have seen him become completely isolated from plays late in the game. True, this could be his teammates fault for not getting him the ball (as many on STR have stated). I, however, feel that as the MAN (he didnt get that extension for nothing) on the team, he needs to be able to take control of the game and NEVER find himself isolated from crunch time possesions.
Kobe, McGrady, Joe Johnson, Lebron, Wade, Melo ect ect.. are all swingmen who DEMAND/TAKE OVER during the final possessions of crunchtime. I hope Martin can one day (very soon) become that type of player who everyone knows WILL get the ball everytime down for the last minute or two of a tight game, but right now he just isnt. And I'm not discounting his amazing late game heroics you posted on the front page. I just dont see him take control of games late like I believe he is capable of doing.
However, dont confuse my opinion stating that he sometimes allows himself to become "isolated" from the action with saying that he isnt "clutch". 2 completely different things! (This could possibly be the root of the confusion concerning the myth??????)
Kings Crunch Time Stats
Martin 19.8 19.8 53.4% 52.3%
Artest 19.1 19.2 53.4% 47.6%
Udrih 17.8 16.2 69.6% 49.5%
Bibby 15.2 19.2 75.0% 45.5%
Garcia 13.8 17.3 45.2% 51.0%
Miller 13.0 14.0 33.3% 48.2%
Salmons 12.8 15.8 63.0% 53.9%
Douby 10.2 18.3 50.0% 54.5%
Moore 7.2 9.9 50.0% 54.5%
Average 14.3 16.6 54.8% 50.8%
I know this doesn't line up well, but I haven't figured out how to post a spreadsheet to a blog. Maybe someone can give me a clue.
I've used eFG% to be consistent with what TZ posted.
It's interesting that Martin is the team leader in shots per 48 minutes of crunch time as well as overall time. Udrih is the only player on the team who takes more shots in crunch time than overall time.
In fact, the Kings' top nine players overall average almost 21 shots less in crunch time per 48 minutes than they do overall. Maybe this is because there is more working the clock down. Maybe they commit more turnovers in crunch time. I don't know how this compares to other teams.
Overall, Martin ranks 41st in the NBA (or slightly lower) in shots taken per crunch time.
Sacramento, Indiana and Charlotte are the only three teams in the NBA without a player who averages at least 20 shots per 49 minutes of crunch time. Many of the top teams have two clear crunch time players to carry the load.
This is Martin's first season as the team's crunch time shot leader. Compare this to last season:
Bibby: 24.9
Artest: 18.4
Martin: 17.0
Notice Bibby's numbers are way down this year. The changing of the guard is happening, even if it's at too slow a pace.
I am going to step back here and say that I have been too hard on Kevin Martin. At the same time, I think it's fair to say he's still an emerging star. He's not in the same conversation with the game's greats yet, and it's equally unfair to put that burden on him at this point and anoint him as something he's not based on his potential and pretty awesome offensive production thus far.
Will he grow into that player? This is only his second season as a starter, and the team is clearly in transition from being Bibby's team to being Martin's team.
I agree it's time to clear the decks and see what we have. I don't think we will truly know how good Kevin is or can be until the other main options are gone and we give Kevin Martin a full season to show what he can do as The Man. Next year will be Kevin Martin's showcase season.
The only other question I have is whether his body can stand up to major NBA minutes. His best two games where he looked freshest were his first two games back from injury, where he played about 28 minutes a game coming off the bench and scored more than a point a minute. It's also worth noting that Artest and Bibby did not play in those two games.
Since returning to the starting lineup, he has slowed things down and seems to be pacing himself. I am eager to see if he can regain that extra gear and still play more than 35-40 minutes a game.
We probably won't have the luxury if we deal Artest and Bibby, but playing Kevin as a sixth man could be the ticket down the road. Food for thought.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 13, 2008 8:33 AM PST up reply actions
Good stuff
I'd conclude that Kmart is not a choker and is in fact clutch, but he is also not the "go to guy" yet during crunch time.
This, defense and assists are areas where I'd like to see further growth in the coming years.
by Kfan in Korea on Feb 13, 2008 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
Top Crunch Time Shot Takers
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 13, 2008 8:43 AM PST up reply actions
crunch time
Nice post, TZ. He has cleary shown this season that he wants to take the big shot. This is his "break out" year in terms of on-court demeanor. I definitely prefer it to years past.
"Let's go home" will forever be one of my favorite Kings quotes.
i love that
by diehardkingsfan5 on Feb 11, 2008 7:15 PM PST up reply actions
"Let's go home"
Plus, you don't get T'ed up for having some class.
I love SpeedRacer! Even though I am sometimes frustrated by him. I loved him for calling for(demanding) the ball in the Utah game, I hate when he defers to Bibby and the Full Glass of Crazy.
by KK on Feb 11, 2008 7:57 PM PST up reply actions
great article
I like it too actually--one of the many
Math is fun!
.5 is 1/2 a basket lower than LBJ. .005 is the amount of basket you get from licking the ball.
Isn't it? Could be my math is off though...no offense intended.
Either way, Pookey's link to the HTML required to quote and bold made me happy! Yes, Pookey, we do read and pay attention to you! Thank you! I'd been looking for this information.
Muchas gracias to TZ for hosting the site and for his insights.
Hey, TZ I was reading ballhype earlier and read about the book The Last Hoop, it made me really want to buy and read the book, will you ever get into those kinds of topics here?
Just from reading the description it reminded me of where some players come from, especially given the recent Spree news. Another big and frustrating talent but maybe not so hard to understand when you get to know some of the background of where they come from.
I can't begin to know the pressure they face from a young age. Or the shortcuts they were offered either.
I was a juco basketball player who barely got off the bench, my sister was a recruited softball player a million years ago and I saw the things (shhshh "job" she didn't have to go to, the classes she was excused from, the free tutoring (but only enough to make her eligible), her ahem excesses that were excused) she was offered. None of those things helped her as an adult, and none of them got her a degree after five years of playing ball (redshirt freshman year). It has to be 20 gazillion bazillion times worse for male athletes today. It was at least a billion times worse for the male athletes at just a low D1 school back then.
The really sad thing is, we come from a middle class family, which is more than a lot of these guys come from, but she and our parents believed all this crap hype (for a female sport that STILL doesn't offer a pro career). I really can't imagine how much more these guys are offered with so little hope of succeeding and how much their families must depend on them or how much their families defer to them as their best hope for making all of their lives better.
Over the years, I've worked off and on with a woman who's a single mother but she comes from a strong middle class family and she earns +75K a year (and gets around 15k in child support for this child). Ever since her son was born she has pursued this dream of a professional athletic career for her son. She considers it her personal retirement plan. I find that very sad and wonder how her (now 15 year old) son feels about it.
ADD post. Sorry to anyone who read it all the way through.
Good post
by 27freethrows on Feb 11, 2008 9:03 PM PST up reply actions
No, no payday.
Section 214
Corliss is an assistant coach at Arkansas Baptist College this year.
I think he formally announced his retirement, but if he's still on a roster he might get his Joe Klein payoff which he richly deserves.
Your forgiven
As far as basketball skills not equaling real life skills, start a Diary, especially if you start reading a book. It's an interesting topic, one that deserves more attention than the side-handed remarks at the end of a completely different article. Thanks for bringing it up, you make some good points. Worried that kid'll put too much pressure on himself to succeed, and thus doom himself to fail.
Thank you!
We pretty much said the same thing? .005 is .5% is equal? I just don't understand basketball stats, so I will go try to learn.
I like math, but this confused me so I think I need to spend more time reading basketball stats before I comment again. Thank you for pointing me in the right direction without ridiculing me.
As far as starting a diary on the topic of child athletes, I think 27freethrows has much deeper knowledge than I will ever have. I know what I saw growing up, I know what my sometime co-worker is doing and I abhore(sp?) it.
But once I've read the book, The Last Shot, I might have some commentary. My "knowledge" is peripheral, it's only based on female recruiting and how excessive it was 20 years ago for a minimal sport, I have only anectdotal evidence of the male recruiting perks from that time. Trust me on this, my sister bitched about what her male baseball player peers were getting that she wasn't. I'm not blaming this on the system, she COULD have graduated if she'd gone to class, but she believed in her hype and the school enabled her, there was no way to convince her that she needed to be grateful for the scholarship and go to class. Again, this was a long time ago, for a minimal sport yet the school aggresively recruited her and perked her. WTF? I suspect she was shocked when she didn't graduate (no, I know it).
yeah, we said the same thing .005 = .5%
.5% means .5 per cent, which means .5 for every century (100). So for ever 100 times it happens, it happens .5 times. Thus, there is an implied division by 100 when a percent sign follows a number. Therefore, .5% = .5 divided by 100 = .005
If you take a hundred shots, and you made 1 basket, you made 1/100 of your shots, or .01 - which is 1%. Half of .01 is .005, and half of 1% is .5%
Told you percentages are confusing.
Umm
He is
No
It looked to me
I might be wrong, but it wouldn't surprise me to know that Bibby didn't inbound it to Martin, or that Artest didn't get him the ball like he was supposed to.
There was time.
by LeaguePassAddict on Feb 12, 2008 9:16 AM PST up reply actions
I dont want to be called dramatic nut...
by 27freethrows on Feb 12, 2008 4:33 PM PST up reply actions

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