Pricing Beno
Lots of talk today concerning our ability to re-sign Beno next year. Based on TZ's post and if Ron does not opt out, there would be about $4 million available for Beno, and that's with us carrying only 13 players.
Is $4 million reasonable? Not if you look at starting point guard salaries across the NBA.
Let's throw out the veterans. Guys like Bibby, Kidd, Marbury, etc. These guys are all getting paid on their "big" contracts and that really does not apply to Beno. Let's also throw out the guys still working on their rookie deals (Paul, D.Williams, Felton, etc.) and focus in on the guys working on their first non-rookie contract. Here is what these guys are scheduled to make next year (priced by millions):
$7.8m - Devin Harris$10.0m - Kirk Hinrich
$4.9m - Rafer Alston
$5.8m - Shaun Livingston
$8.4m - Mo Williams
$5.6m - Jameer Nelson
$6.2m - Earl Watson
$8.0m - T.J. Ford
$6.8m - Jamaal Tinsley
The average for these guys is $7.1 million per year. And Beno would probably fit somewhere in the middle of this list.
My spidey sense tells me that $4 million won't get it done. Something else will have to give.
(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)
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Section I consider you a wise scrub
Philadelphia has cap room. They also have Andre Miller. Charlotte will have cap room, but the undoubtably, and Felton's presence of course increases this part, of Charlotte looking at Emeka Okafor. Memphis has cap room, and Mike Conley, Javaris Crittenton, and Kyle Lowery. Seattle might have enough cap room, but I doubt it (there draft pick will count against cap room). After that they might not have any more cap room than the Mid Level Exception anyway. In otherwords Sacramento has every bit the bargaining power with Beno as does every team around the League. Which is a nice feeling for a change.
a wise scribe (and definitely not a scrub)
Good points, pookey
Based on the above numbers I would bet that at least one team out there would offer Beno at least the full MLE (one example - Miami!). We can do that, too. But unless something else happens that $6 million contract will be the equivalent of an $8 million contract after the luxury tax kicks in. Would the Maloof's be willing to pony that up for Beno?
My point is that I feel that we are mistaken if we feel that we can sign Beno for $4 million. As I often say, I could be wrong. But based on the numbers I can't see Beno not getting at least a full MLE.
Beno can't get more than the MLE
I think Beno can be had for $3.3 million
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 21, 2008 10:17 PM PST reply actions
And...
That was easy
You should take your time next time and not always make the easy assumptions.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 21, 2008 11:15 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks, Chuckles
Hmm, guess I'll respond. You cherry picked your results, I chose a random five ranked lower than 34 in response to your question: what's a 34th ranked PG worth?
And, none of it matters if Beno ends up as a 34th ranked PG in anybody's survey.
Anyway, it's late and I believe I'll accept your disclaimer for the rest of the night.
You're confused
I like section's take; I just tried to add something to it. And actually I had already made my points in the other thread before I even knew this one existed. In fact, it barely was in existence when I made the other posts.
I just chimed into the discussion. Sorry you took it personally.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 21, 2008 11:48 PM PST up reply actions
Yep
http://www.sactownroyalty.com/comments/2008/2/20/215430/348/153#153
That speed typing and speed thinking will get you every time :)
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 21, 2008 11:53 PM PST up reply actions
A lil hot sauce
I didn't cherry pick
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 21, 2008 11:50 PM PST up reply actions
Beno Udrih
I :heart: you.
Viewpoints
I give you the twisted Brady Bunch version.
There were times during the glory years
If you were a character...
For the record, I love this comic strip when I have a chance to read it, I just recently found out that it's on TV. Or was, is it still on? I'd love to find it.
The comic strip isn't running still
That's when it is
Hilarious.
I think
Keep hurting my feelings
He could do well
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 21, 2008 10:56 PM PST up reply actions
Really?
Is Beno the same off the bench as he is as a starter?
Was there zero difference in his PER between starter and backup games?
Granted, his falloff was not as steep as Salmons' has been, but there was a difference. You'd know that if you ever checked this shit out on a game by game basis. By the way, have you gone back to check out the salaries on PG's in your Hollinger PER link yet?
You Have Some Catching Up to Do, KK
Only on the top 42 :) Which is obviously more than you've done before deciding to pop off.
>>Is Beno the same off the bench as he is as a starter? Was there zero difference in his PER between starter and backup games?<<
Good question, and I don't think Hollinger provides the answer. And I'm pretty sure YOU don't have the answer. Surprise us.
>>Do you even watch the games or follow these stats until you want to make a point?<<
I've watched just about every Kings game this year. I've probably missed 4-5, mostly because they weren't televised. Some of those I followed on Game Channel.
I also know Ron Artest is ranked No. 9 in PER among small forwards, Kevin Martin No. 4 among shooting guards, Brad is No. 13 among centers (was lower when I wrote a diary ranking NBA centers last month), while Mikki drags up the rear with a No. 48 ranking among power forwards. I look at those numbers and other rankings numbers every once in a while and try to offer reasoned analysis when I post, not just mimeographed opinions.
In other words, feel free to eat my dust.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 21, 2008 11:27 PM PST up reply actions
The only point you have in your favor is
Just to Clarify
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 21, 2008 11:41 PM PST up reply actions
I disagree with much of your basketball opinion
Let me clarify the last line
Unfortunately
If I thought Salmons or Salmons and Garcia combined could produce the results Artest can -- and I realize those results will always have to be qualified -- then I would agree with you.
Garcia I think can be a solid player. Salmons is decent as well, productive, whatever. They just don't have the star power to get it done. And if I have to pick between Salmons and Garcia as a part of the Kings future, I pick Garcia because he's younger, cheaper (now), is effective as eithe ra starter or sub. And I love his 3 ball.
And, as I've tried to point out, I think we can sign Artest and Beno and those other two will be part of the puzzle as well.
If I have to pick among the four of them -- Artest, Beno, Salmons and Garcia -- Salmons is the one I try to deal.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 12:12 AM PST up reply actions
You think of Artest as a franchise level talent
As far as trading Salmons I don't particularly like the idea at the moment, but I'm open to it. I'm just not open to the idea of trading Salmons to create room for Artest. I think that's dumb from every angle.
Artest
If you mean Tim Duncan or LeBron James or someone up THERE, no, Ron's not that guy. But Salmons is not even close -- he's simply a nice 28-year-old role player who had the best 20-game stretch of his life but who struggles to contribute off the bench.
Ron is unique in that he plays D and can guard multiple positions. That's actually what makes his game and adds value. His offensive skills are not as polished as they could be, but he can be a force there as well if he uses good shot selection.
The Kings are still a legitimate power forward away from being a serious contender, and that is assuming Beno develops as we think he can. If both those puzzles add up, Artest is just another key piece that makes that vision happen.
Now of course that may be too optimistic. Artest may just be a bridge to a contending team. I just think if we had dealt him the team would have spiraled and lost a lot of confidence. I think Ron keeps them relevant in the short term and hopefully surprises us and does more than that over the longer haul.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 12:43 AM PST up reply actions
This team is a legitmate top 10 player
As far as re-signing Beno and Ron that just doesn't seem feasible for the Kings without paying luxury tax. So which amount of players do the Kings have to dump for that to happen? I don't think that scenario is worth it to begin with. And i'm tired of arguing specific value's of Artest's worth. I already know he's talented, indeed I'm quite aware as everyone else around here at what he does well and doesn't. I'm also perfectly aware he's a better basketball player than sometimes my comment indicate either. I just don't think he's worth keeping under any scenario. Given Petrie's comments to Amick, and the fact Artest wasn't trade for expiring deals, clearly Petrie feels differently. I'm not looking forward to the journey. I'm also done arguing against Artest. This is clearly more of an issue of whether Petrie has lost his mind now.
Agreed
by misterbrister on Feb 22, 2008 7:23 AM PST up reply actions
Miami
Half a season
Situation isn't comparable
Chuckles
When you leave some, I will eat it.
Having said that, goodnight.
And
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 12:04 AM PST up reply actions
Re: And
BWAHAHAHAHAAAAHAHAHAHAAAAAHAHAAAHAAA
/takes deep breath
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAA
Otis
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 6:28 AM PST up reply actions
New StR feature request
by NYCFan @ Sactown Royalty on Feb 22, 2008 8:58 AM PST up reply actions
Not sure about PER
As a starter:
18.9 P/6.7 A/4.9 R/1.6 ST/3.5 TO/45.5 FG%/43.2% 3PFG%
As a sub:
16.5 P/4.1 A/6.4 R/1.2 ST/3.1 TO/37.4 FG%/30.4% 3PFG%
I don't know how PER is calculated, but his starters numbers are better (outside of assists and a slightly higher turnover ratio). I'd have to imagine he bumps up a bit in PER.
And we are talking about a 25 year old guy who has started 39 games in his career.
For a guy who crows about Artest's performance on a game by game basis, coolcat seems to have ignored Beno's 10 assist, 0 turnover game the other night.
Where did you get those numbers?
The only missing number, and it's crucial in terms of PER, is how many minutes he's averaged when he started, and how when he didn't. I'd have to assume it's higher when he started, but I'll take a look.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 6:32 AM PST up reply actions
Ooops
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 6:33 AM PST up reply actions
Actually
I like Beno and I hope we can resign him. My $3.3 million may be a little cheap, but it isn't that far off. It's in the ballpark, and I don't see a lot of opportunities out there where he would walk into the situation a clear starter.
He's also competing against a pretty decent crop of point guard free agents that starts with Davis and Calderon and at least four college players who could start at point guard in the NBA next season.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 6:51 AM PST up reply actions
I Ran The Numbers & PER Guess
So your point is certainly valid: Udrih plays better as a starter in all areas except rebounding and turnovers per 48.
His starting numbers in points, assists, rebounds, steals and turnovers are on average about 15% better than his non-starter numbers per 48.
He's played 46 games already with a PER of 13.02. Assuming a 15% improvement in PER in the remaining 29 games -- and that's a big fat guess based on my lack of knowledge of how PER is calculated -- that would give him: 46 games with a PER of 13.02 and 29 games with a PER of 14.97.
Overall that would give him 75 games with a PER of 13.76, which would move him up from 34th currently to 26th on the PER list.
A PER of 14.97 based just on his starting performances would rank him 20th.
Again, a lot of educated guesses and assumptions here, but I'm probably in the ballpark.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 8:59 AM PST up reply actions
PERs
You're a numbers guy, and I'm sure the numbers here are all that matter to you. But before you start de-valuing Beno, you might think about these three questions. Answers appear at the end of this post.
- Is the team better with him on the floor?
- Does he contribute in ways that don't show up on the stat sheet?
- Could you replace him with a proven equivalent or upgrade for the $3.3 mil you suggest?
by LeaguePassAddict on Feb 22, 2008 9:40 AM PST up reply actions
Sizing Up Beno
That's wrong, but I think you know that. Numbers are a start, and it's certainly more than naive to think Beno's agent won't be spinning whatever positive numbers he can come up with. I don't think he will simply tell Geoff that "the team is better with him on the floor."
I'm certainly not devaluing Beno. He is what he is: a very promising young point guard with less than 30 games as an NBA starter under his belt.
Answers to your questions also aren't so cut and dried as you might suggest.
Is the team better with him on the floor?
Assuming that means as opposed to the other point guards on the team, the answer is clearly yes. If you are talking about compared to other possible scenarios, that would depend on who you are talking about and what timeframe you are attempting to analyze.
Does he contribute in ways that don't show up on the stat sheet?
Yes, he does, but you could say that about every player in the league. Bad question.
Could you replace him with a proven equivalent or upgrade for the $3.3 mil you suggest?
Maybe not, but remember $3.3 million might not be what we end up talking about here. I'd definitely like to keep Beno for $3.3 million, and frankly, in light of the new numbers TZ is putting up, I have no problems paying him more. Naturally the higher you go, the more alternatives you have if you choose to go a different direction.
Another route is to go for a rookie point guard, which would definitely be cheaper and would allow you to upgrade the team at power forward, where we still are searching for an answer. And if your time frame is longer and you think the rookie in question can become the next Paul or D Williams in 2-3 years, then it becomes a maybe, not a clear-cut yes or no.
You also use the word proven, and I'd think you can say Beno himself has not quite passed that test yet.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
Regardless of other points
If you want to develop a young rookie point, go ahead. If you want to include Beno in a trade, go ahead. You can do all sorts of things paying Beno at that price.
Point guards are key players
I'd rather chew broken glass than start a rookie point guard.
by LeaguePassAddict on Feb 22, 2008 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
I would have liked to see Bobby Hurley
I am sure
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
I'd rather draft a rookie point guard
Agreed
by LeaguePassAddict on Feb 22, 2008 2:44 PM PST up reply actions
Amen, Brother
by SavageBeast on Feb 22, 2008 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
About as Insane
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
To keep the chain going...
Sulking Salmons
You can tell where the team is going by who's on the floor in crunch time. More and more it's Garcia, not Salmons. Obviously there's no question Ron is on the floor at crunch time.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 2:22 PM PST up reply actions
Salmons
Salmons is averaging 1.4 points per game in 19 minutes on 3-17 shooting in the last five games.
Meanwhile Artest is a lock-down defender and in the top five in NBA scoring for February.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 23, 2008 7:13 AM PST up reply actions
Come on coolcat
Now, do you think really believe the Kings will be a playoff claber team with any pointguard they can get for $3m, or any point guard they can draft between 12 and 14? Yes New Orleans and Utah started rookie point guards, but they also had back ups and they drafted the top point guards in the draft, if not the best rookie point guards in the last ten years.
Your Ron may be Superman, Spiderman, and The Incredible Hulk combined, but he still needs a point guard or his team is going to suck.
Of course going by your previous logic, we could just let Ron walk, sign Beno and go with a rookie small forward. I mean look at happy Denver is with starting Carmelo.
Point Guards
I think Darren Collison is a good point guard prospect who will available at 12-14 if the Kings need him. But if we're able to keep Beno then I'd prefer to go with a big man in that slot.
Again, though, if the choice is over keeping either Beno or Artest, you know where I stand.
Naturally I'd like to have superstars at all five positions with three sitting on the bench. Ain't gonna happen, though. Choices have to be made.
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 2:31 PM PST up reply actions
Section,
You and Pookey both make good points. I'm fairly sure Beno will go to whomever gives him the best offer, but hopefully he has some of that SpeedRacer attitude and is grateful to the Kings for giving him an opportunity to show what he's capable of and will sign for some portion of the MLE. After all, the Kings are the team who believed in him enough to sign him fast off the waiver wire and gave him his opportunity.
signed,
Hopeless Optimist
Hopeful Optimist
Or Billy Beane ass kissers
There is that aspect of things
Billy Beane
I'm kinda pissed about Swisher.
by LeaguePassAddict on Feb 22, 2008 9:43 AM PST up reply actions
I'm definitely not
My favorite A's this decade are: Dan Johnson, Danny Haren, Miguel Tejada, and Huston Street. (And Street is overrated as hell. I just like the kid wants to battle.)
Denver
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 21, 2008 10:52 PM PST reply actions
Unrestricted free agent point guards
Eddie House, Earl Boykins, Jeff McInnis, Chris Duhon, Anthony Carter, Lindsey Hunter, Sam Cassell, Dan Dickau, Jason Williams, Darrell Armstrong, Carlos Arroyo, Kevin Ollie, Tyronn Lue, Anthony Johnson, Damon Stoudamire, Darrick Martin.
Yummy.
So is Udrih more fairly compared to the players on this list or the list that was provided in the original post? If Rafer Alston is at $4.9 million, Jameer Nelson is at $5.6 million, Earl Watson is at $6.2 million and Jamaal Tinsley is at $6.8 million...
Here it is in a nutshell. Beno's agent has access to these same numbers. Throw out the rookie contracts as they don't apply. Throw out the mega contracts as they don't apply. If Beno plays well down the stretch of this season somebody is probably going to offer him a full $6 million MLE. For God's sake, the Lakers will do it just to piss us off!
holy jab-nibblers!
It makes so much basketball sense, though.
Hyperbole
From Your List
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 22, 2008 9:08 AM PST up reply actions
Is that your fallback list, Section?
I also wondered aloud (just before the deadline on another thread) if Memphis would swap Lowry for Douby (and possibly a 2nd Round Pick if necessary). Since Memphis still has 3 PGs, this could be a possibility in the off-season as well.
Had Artest been moved for another pick (preferably ATL's from PHX, but even Denver's would have worked) then the Kings would have more options in the draft, and could pick up a big (as has been mentioned) and a point.
I know that I would have been happy if the Kings had another 1st Rounder last year, so that they still could have picked up Law/Crittenton/Brooks after getting Hawes, but alas, the Bibby deal for Cleveland's #1 (and parts) never went down. Hopefully the Artest non-trade doesn't have the same effect (many liked the Scola-Brooks idea from Houston, if Bibby would have been traded last year it could have netted the Kings Gooden and Brooks).
Hell no at Duh
As far as Douby for Lowery that's something I'd have to consider. I don't think Douby's received a fair shake, and has usefulness, and I'm not sure Lowery is the type of player I'd want in return. I want to see Douby get 10-15 mins this season and see what he can do with it. Personal opinion.
Luxery Tax
That being said, if Petrie and the Malloofs are seriously considering signing him to a longer term (3+ year) deal, how important, really is a few millions dollars in lost in LT money?
I say this because if you keep Ron Ron, it would certainly appear that you have decided to try to win games while waiting for some of the big salaries come off the books. At that point your options are wide open.
If you don't resign Beno, you not only hurt your future, but you suddenly have a team that can not win games. If you pay a few million extra to keep him, and you put together an exciting team that can win games, you easily recoop what money you lose on the tax. Especially considering that if you keep Ron Ron, you trade Salmons for an expiring, so you really only pay the tax for a year or so.
And you quite possibly could have a playoff team next year, which would more than cover your costs. I don't think that is pie in the sky thinking. If we had the current team playing the way they are now, at the beginning of this year, I think we could have snuck in.
Excellent Point
I may not be able to spell
Not to nitpick
(Once an editor, always an editor.)
by LeaguePassAddict on Feb 22, 2008 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
As in real life
by SavageBeast on Feb 22, 2008 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
Nah
(Ducking, covering, running, and yelling in terror.) That tick, tick, tick, may not just be Ron.
by SavageBeast on Feb 22, 2008 10:31 AM PST up reply actions
You have time to run
Funny boy
by LeaguePassAddict on Feb 22, 2008 10:37 AM PST up reply actions
But what if?
That's the question.
by SavageBeast on Feb 22, 2008 10:29 AM PST up reply actions
Good Call.
Things like:
3 missed 3-s a game (if you're hot you're hot)
4 chest-thumps a game
2 Flip flops on his Kings plans per week (I want to retire a King unless I get traded to the Knicks because I'm all about winning, I mean money, I mean the team, how about my rap album?)
He must set at least one half-court (Miller-esque) screen per game.
I mean you throw in a couple of those, and I'm ok with an Artest deal.
This isn't what I meant
by LeaguePassAddict on Feb 22, 2008 10:39 AM PST up reply actions
One day...
So apparantly the whole
by SavageBeast on Feb 22, 2008 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
Not quite
Sheldon Williams DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TURTLE!
That's hilarious IAsh
Holy cowbells!

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