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TZ Minus 5 - For Every Action There Is A Reaction

Sir Isaac Newton said it, and Bruce Bowen seems to live every waking moment by it - To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

But does that apply to the upcoming NBA draft where the Kings are concerned? That is, will the type of player they draft have an immediate impact on the future of other current Kings players? And by immediate, I mean this year. And for the purpose of this discussion we'll include Beno Udrih, even though he is technically a free agent.

First, a reference piece, flawed though it may be. My initial mock draft from April 27th has its failings, but it does give a little biographic information on each of the potential draftees that I will mention below.

Let's start with the bigs. If we secure a top three pick we would be interested in Michael Beasley but really no one else, as that's too high to draft Anthony Randolph and Brook Lopez is too much like Spencer Hawes. If we pick at 12 we may or may not be too late for Kevin Love and DeAndre Jordan (Chad Ford has us taking Jordan now). Darrell Arthur may be available, as well as Mareesse Speights and JaVale McGee.

So, would the drafting of any of these guys have an immediate impact on the future of our current batch of bigs? Let's start by figuring it has no impact on K9(woof!), since he does not figure to play for us no matter who we draft and he may be the most untradeable human being not named Barry Zito. Let's also dismiss 'Reef from this conversation until such time that he shows that he can play again.

The drafting of Beasley could impact Miller or Moore, though probably not both. The thought here is that if you're drafting a kid like Beasley he's going to get playing time right away. Hawes stands to see increased minutes, so that leaves one more big to get real minutes. Moore is probably easier to move due to his reasonable contract, (two years at roughly $6 million per, with an early buyout option in the 2nd year), but Miller could be a huge contributor for the right team. Watching Orlando, wouldn't Miller be awesome with Howard, Lewis and Hedo? Big, big contract, though. Tough man to trade.

The impact is less if you're drafting from the 12 hole, as you have to figure that all of the youngsters (Love and Jordan are freshman, the others sophomores) would need more time to develop and would probably see the same type of minutes that Hawes saw this year.

In either case I don't see the selection of a big man having much of an impact on Shelden Williams. If he plays out of his mind in camp this fall the Kings extend him, if he doesn't they don't.

On to the point guards. A top three pick could net us Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless or perhaps O.J. Mayo. D.J Augustin or Russell Westbrook might be available at 12. I still think that Ty Lawson will fall to the late teens or early 20's, and he may still opt to go back to school.

The drafting of any of these guys might encourage Udrih to look elsewhere, as he is looking to be the point guard of his team. Now, Rose, Mayo and Bayless are all freshman and may need some time to develop. Westbrook and Augustin are sophomores but still unfinished products by NBA standards. Could the Kings draft one of these guys and still convince Udrih to sign here? Would the Kings prefer a veteran (Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue, Sam Cassell, Lindsey Hunter, Anthony Carter, Jason Williams, Darrell Armstrong) to put with the rookie?

I balk at placing Quincy Douby into this conversation. Q-Dub says that he is still working hard on his point guard skills, but I just don't know. I like Douby a lot, and it sure seems that a team like the Hawks or anyone that needs a shooter/scorer off the bench would be a better fit for him. The Kings may still extend him, but we need a miracle for the phrase "Quincy Douby, point guard" to be applicable.

OK, on to the dreaded wings. I can't see us taking a 2 or 3 in the top three picks. Eric Gordon will be gone by the time we draft at 12. That potentially leaves Danilo Gallinari, Nicolas Batum and Chase Budinger. For the sake of this conversation let's say that Gallinari is available at 12 and Petrie can't resist. We have now spent our pick on a guy that plays the same position as Salmons, Garcia and (for all intents and puposes) Artest. And you can add Kevin Martin and Quincy Douby to that list if you include the two guard position.

Does the drating of Gallinari then automatically generate the need for a trade involving Salmons or Artest, or even both? Put another way, had we drafted Al Thornton or Julian Wright this past year and not dealt anyone, would either of those rookies received more than Dahntay Jones minutes?

No matter who we draft at the wing, I see it having no impact on Martin or Garcia, unless someone offers some insane package for Garcia that nets us a very good player or draft pick and also takes a bloated contract off our hands. It might cost Douby a chance at an extension, however.

Item last, and it's in regards to our 2nd round picks. I think of guys like Carlos Boozer and Michael Redd and even Lawrence Funderburke and I get a little excited about Petrie having some extra picks. But you have to keep it in perspective. The list of Petrie's 2nd round picks: Ricky Menard, Corsley Edwards, Maurice Jeffers, Jabari Smith, Ryan Robertson, Jerome James, Anthony Johnson, Jason Sasser, Tyus Edney and Dejan Bodiroga.*

*Side note - I researched the 2nd round picks at Hoopshype and discovered that Petrie's worst transaction (which they used to list as the Webber trade to Philly) is now the hiring of E-Muss. Ha!/Ouch!

OK, boys and girls. GM hats on. How do you move this team forward? Remember, there are no wrong answers - just wrong people giving bad answers.

 

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I say we trade down

Pick up an additional pick and draft Hibbert in the second half of the first round. Run him at the 4 and Hawes at the 5 on offense, and the opposite on defense. Frontcourt is covered for the next ten years.

Yes, I have some irrational liking of Hibbert. There’s no ‘splaining it.

"Boo Lakers! Boo Kobe! Go Kings! Go Giants! Boo Dodgers!" - my 5 year-old daughter - 4/15/08

by otis29 on May 14, 2008 11:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I say GP does everything within his power to get back into the 1st round.

The Kings need a true rebuild. Deal Salmons, Moore, Miller, Artest and anyone not named Martin, Garcia or Hawes. One of these guys, along with 1 or both of our second rounders might get us back around the 18-25 range in the first. Sheldon Williams and Quincy Douby might make a nice trade package with their 5 million in expiring contracts (with options) that could land the Kings a trade exemption and a pick. This is a very deep draft, filled with Kings specific need players (points and powers). I would not be opposed to 2 or 3 first rounders, signing Beno, playing on the cheap until the big money falls off two years from now. In two years, Martin would still be in his prime, the rookie class and Hawes will have been evaluated and needs can be filled at that point through free-agency. Add a high lottery pick or two while the rebuild happens and we could be back on track in 2 years when Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix and Houston are falling off.

I trust Petrie with 3 picks, but those picks have to be in the first rounders to have any chance of success.

Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.

by jjham15 on May 14, 2008 12:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Available 1st round picks?

You would think that Golden State (14), Denver (20) and Orlando (22) would all be willing to deal their picks to “win now” if you could come up with the right scenario. Artest would fit in Golden State, especially with Pietrus and Barnes becoming free agents. Artest would also work in Denver and Miller in Orlando. The trick is coming up with the appropriate deal, which currently seems to be out of the scope of my ability.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 14, 2008 1:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

SAR and John

I don’t understand the affinity for Shareef. His career is O-V-E-R like Kenny Thomas. We took a gamble on his knees and LOST big time. Shareef was past his prime after his last year in Portland. Keeping Kenny and Shareef is wasting roster spots and cap space. Notice how the Kings played better when Thomas and Shareef didn’t get major minutes?

Salmons is a keeper if he can learn to impact the game as a sixth man. He simply can’t disappear just because he’s not starting. I don’t think Salmons is a starter in the league anyways for any team in the NBA. The guy’s role is to be an all-purpose player off the bench and change the tempo of a game type player.

The Sacramento Kings: Where Amazing Happens!

by kingme18 on May 14, 2008 2:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think one reason Petrie was reluctant to deal Artest for cap room is the following

- Shareef might be able to get a medical retirement which would take effect BEFORE the end of the 08-09 season (the exact date would have to be specified in fairness, but if you’re looking for a timetable, it would probably be no earlier than mid January 2009).
- Dealing Ron would make Petrie want to get a Josh Howard level player back in return
- Last point is simple: Petrie likes to trade talent for talent

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on May 14, 2008 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To clarify (i forgot to read the whole thing)

When you have a player who medically retires his cap figure comes off the cap when he’s declared medically retired.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on May 14, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What would i do?

With an assist via Sam Amick. The Josh Howard rumor is a terrific start in many ways. Another point would be that the team still needs shot blocking/rebounding/athleticism and needs it in the worst way.

For example, though, if you brought out Josh Howard and all that nonsense, what would you do if you had the first pick? Would you pick Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley? Would you pick neither? How do you go that route? I still would argue Rose myself, but I’m open to Beasley arguments. I think it could go either way, and 10 or so un-told/un-known issues will crop up that settle that argument.

I think this team can compete if it deals Artest for Howard, primarily because Howard won’t use up so much of Reggie Theus’ maneuvering to grab the locker room in his firm grasp, and in part because Howard won’t take shots away from Kevin Martin. That’s not a terrible thing is it?

I think if the Kings stay @ 12, well that’s a totally different story. I mean, it’s quite simple, and there is no easy answer here, but one is to decide whom you must have 3 years down the road under any circumstance. I think Martin, Hawes, Garcia, and to a degree, Udrih all fit that circumstance.

Because in this draft there probably isn’t a true impact game changing player who will make your team go from 22 to 42 wins in a single season, and those are quite rare (unfortunately I haven’t been able to drop a 7 part draft related series on the history of the draft due to personal issues), and the players you would think have done it, haven’t in short. Jordan, O’Neal, Russell, Chamberlain all didn’t make their teams 20 games better. In fact the players who have done so aren’t players you would think of off the top of your head. Bob Cousy is one (betcha ya didn’t know that did ya?), and Elton Brand is pretty close to another (and the Clippers didn’t even make the playoffs his first season either). Larry Bird is another, but that again, is another story as the circumstances surrounding the team totally changed (like Bird and Tiny Archibald who weren’t on the previous year’s team). As I said that’s totally unique situation, and totally a non-indicator of potential ring winnings.

I think the biggest thing about this team is that Petrie doesn’t lock Artest down long term, and Artest doesn’t opt out, because with so many teams making changes Artest could be an extremely attractive short term option, and that Petrie doesn’t look for the game changing franchise altering/lifting player in this upcoming draft. (Even if you’re a Chris Webber nut licker, you have to admit the man wasn’t, particularly on a per minute basis, the greatest rebounder ever. He had holes in his game. The injuries, and per minute rebounding mostly, but that’s why I would have never paid him 122 mill. Yes, I said that in 2001.)

I also think that the team makes a decision on whose totally expendable. Is Douby not worth including in an upcoming trade with Artest? What about Garcia? Is he THAT untouchable, especially if you’re bringing Josh Howard back in a trade, that you wouldn’t trade him? Eh, the conondrum of satisfying demanding never satisfied groups. Joy Joy!

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on May 14, 2008 6:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Let's assume that the thing that's most likely to happen happens

and the Kings hold on to the 12 spot. Let’s further assume that nobody who is a nobrainer in that position slips to us (Mayo, Gordon, Love, B. Lopez, etc.). Who do we take? We know that our most pressing needs are an athletic, tough big man and a franchise point (regardless of whether we get Beno back). Can we afford to reach on a project like DeAndre Jordan (who Chad Ford has us taking), or a guy like D.J. Augustin whose game might not translate well in the NBA? Can Kings fans suffer through another Petrie drafting another Euro dude that nobody has ever seen? If these questions had obvious answers, we wouldn’t be killing ourselves trying to turn Quincy Douby into a first rounder on the WWL’s Trade Machine. I guess I’ll stop dancing around the issue. Isn’t anybody else just the least bit enticed by the prospect of going another year without a legit enforcer in the middle and just drafting Donte Green? If I’m alone, I’ll shut up, but I got the chills envisioning Hibbert and Hawes as our frontcourt for the next ten years…

by furious.d on May 17, 2008 8:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Donte Greene

I like Donte Greene, but to be fair he is as much of a “project” as guys like Jordan, and it’s impossible to say whether his game will “translate” better than Augustin’s. Hibbert is a non-lottery pick at this point, so I don’t think you have to worry about Hibbert/Hawes resulting from the 12th pick.

Because the Kings need help at the point (even with the re-signing on Udrih they still need another PG) and the 4, it is only natural that most KIngs fans would have little interest in Greene, Gallinari, Budinger or Batum. Guys like Augustin, Westbrook, Jordan, or Arthur fill needed slots on this team without us having to conjur up trade scenarios.

All of that said, if Petrie pulled the trigger on Greene, I would be intrigued, given GP’s draft track record.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 17, 2008 9:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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