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by section214 on May 21, 2008 11:18 AM PDT in NBA Draft Comment 23 comments

OK, I've scoured the 'net and read better than 20 mock drafts. Some by informed folks like Chad Ford and others by guys that were distracted by having to take time out to vote for Kristi Yamaguchi as their favorite celebrity dancer.

We all agree that mock drafts are a crap shoot. But by taking the average of 20 different people we can at least narrow the scope a little bit. I used this method last year and it determined that our choice would most likely come down to Hawes or either Julian Wright or Jeff Green. So at least it was kind of close.

The mock draft tarot cards tell us that these six players will be absolutely, positively gone by the time we draft:

Michael Beasley
Derrick Rose
Brook Lopez
O.J. Mayo
Jerryd Bayless
Eric Gordon.

The data then tells us that only 12 other players will be considered as lottery picks. I also calculated their percentage of availability at the #12 draft slot, based on how many times they were selected prior to #12 on the various boards:

Danilo Gallinari, 10%
Anthony Randolph, 10%
Kevin Love, 20%
D.J. Augustin, 25%
DeAndre Jordan, 40%
Russell Westbrook, 60%
Darrell Arthur, 80%
Nicolas Batum, 90%
JaVale McGee, 95%
Joe Alexander, 100%
Donte Greene, 100%
Kosta Koufos, 100%

Going strictly by percentages, it would appear that our choice may come down to Russell Westbrook or Darrell Arthur. You could probably also say that if Westbrook and/or Arthur move up it would probably cause Augustin and Jordan to slip.

It appears that there will likey be good potential to be had at #12 at PF/C or PG. That is, even if Gallinari slipped all the way to #12, one of Randolph/Love/Jordan/Westbrook/Arthur/Augustin would still have to be left on the board.

Of course, this all changes if one of these guys pulls out of the draft by June 16th. Roy Hibbert's reversal last year likely cost us a chance at Brandan Wright or Joakim Noah (which may not wind up being a bad thing). The larger impact as it pertains to guys going back to school will probably be felt at our 2nd round picks. But if (for example) Jordan and Westbrook pulled out and went back to school, we could be choosing between Nicolas Batum, Donte Greene and JaVale McGee.

Not to worry, kids. The draft is only 36 days away...

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Terrific idea. Gallinari seems to be one of those guys who could go #3 or #20, so it’s interesting to see him pegged for the top #11. The Knicks obviously loom largely in his scenario.

If Randolph and Westbrook both get to pick #11, I’m doing backflips. That would’ve been like Wright and Noah getting to #9 last season.

by Ziller on May 21, 2008 2:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Haven't we...

Warmed to the idea that Hawes is at least a better pro prospect than Wright?

And I fully admit I’m negatively biased against scrawny forwards with long wing spans who could be the next Kevin Garnett if there weren’t questions about their motors.

Having said that I’d take Randolph and/or Jordan in a heart beat this year. F*ck consistency.

by rbiegler on May 21, 2008 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe Hawes has acquitted himself, yes. But wouldn’t you still at least think about a Wright for Hawes trade straight-up?

by Ziller on May 21, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For sure

No question, but in the trade off between athletic intangibles (which Wright clearly has) and intellectual intangibles (which Hawes clearly has…at least as it pertains to hoops…) I take Hawes. At least as long as Petrie is around.

On a completely unrelated note did anyone see that RealGM has nicknamed Joe Alexander Vanilla Sky? If he came to Sac with that nickname can you imagine the way his jersey would sell in North Highlands? Maybe we should draft Alexander solely for the sake of sentimentality…

by rbiegler on May 21, 2008 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Apologies

There are YouTube videos of Alexander with the Vanilla Sky moniker that predate the RealGM article, one of which I think Section recently linked to. Clearly was distracted. Bad ass nickname either way.

by rbiegler on May 21, 2008 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed, though I’m equally in favor of restricting the number of people who have lived in West Virginia for any amount of time to our city as much as possible.

by Ziller on May 22, 2008 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You must've watched THAT Daily show episode.

by moproblemz on May 22, 2008 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

I thought we upgraded the demographics quite nicely.

"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act but a habit." Aristotle

by wvphil on May 22, 2008 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

As an armchair GM...

my rebuilding plans involve shipping Artest to GS for Wright. If he came here he could get close to 20 minutes of PT, if not more and be fairly productive, which he was in games for the Dubs where get got more time. If Petrie could somehow trade Artest for Wright and draft a backup PG I think we’d be a pretty happy blogging community. It’d would be so nice to get rid of a head case, have a really good young front court combo and have the other positions covered pretty well. We might actually be decent.

by vfettke on May 21, 2008 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two problems with that idea

1) They wont’t part with Wright – they really like him.
2) They can’t afford to take on Artest’s salary – they’re almost hoping that Davis opts out so that they have more room to pay Biedrens and Ellis.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 21, 2008 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My idea is not without its flaws...

Obviously they like Wright, but I really think that they’re in a win now mode if Davis stays. He’s been playing great, he’s healthy. They need to win. So I think they’d be willing to give up Wright for Artest. Obviously they’d have to throw in filler for the contracts to work.

Keep in mind, Nelly loves him some Artest. A trio of Nelly, Artest, and SJax is freakin scary. That gives them some amazing defensive options. Remember what Jackson did to Dirk last year in the playoffs? Imagine what he’ll get Artest to do. And Ron will listen because Nelly speaks fluent whacko. Artest also gives them some more scoring options. Nelly’s game plan is to run and shoot an ill advised three pointer. Ron Artest loves to run and shoot ill advised three pointers. It’s a match made in mental health patient heaven.

The deal’s sort of a crapshoot, and relies on Davis staying as well as Nelson’s pull within the organization. He has to have a say w/ personnel issues because of his style of play. Plus, the summer after we fired Adelman Nelly wanted to come here because he would love to coach Artest. So if Baron stays they can rent Artest for a year. They’ll have a crappy cap situation for next year. If it doesn’t work then its okay because Ron, Baron, and Adonal Foyle all come off the books, which is close to $35 mil in salary.

It could work, don’t ruin my dream!

by vfettke on May 21, 2008 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But -

(and not to ruin your idea) – they have no filler. They do have a trade exception, but you would probably have to take back Al Harrington (2 years at almost $20 million) and throw in Douby to make a deal work. And if Davis stays, they go probably fo into luxury tax land.

I’m all for Wright for Artest. Hell, I’ll drive Artest down to Oakland and pick Wright up! But my bet is that if you run this scenario over at “Golden State of Mind” you will get a resounding “No thank you!”

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 21, 2008 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Section

You forgot to end the piece with “Hi, I’m Rob 214, and I approved of this message. I’m just saying sir.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on May 21, 2008 4:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Ha!

I’m no longer in the public eye, which enables me to say things like “F*@# Peaches!”

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 21, 2008 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which of course is the most important thing :)

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on May 21, 2008 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No Europeans plz!

As a European who watches how the game is played here and in the NBA for many years, I say we really have to stay away from Europeans like Gallinari. It’s extremely rare for a European player to deserve a top 15 pick. I know there is a trend for international players lately but let’s face it, most of them are busts. Dirk was a one in a lifetime case. There are NO hidden Dirks in Europe waiting for a NBA scout to find them lol.

Let’s keep this real, how many Europeans that play in the NBA now would deserve a top 15 pick? Dirk, Parker, Gasol, Ilgauskas?

Calderon, Turkoglu and Okur would probably belong in the 1st round but they’ve come a LONG way to play at their present level.

And as a Greek, I’d say to stay away from Koufos. He’s a good player but the last thing we want is another soft center with mid-range shot who can’t play D.

by ZenBaller on May 21, 2008 5:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Ummmm

Calderon wasn’t drafted, Turkoglu was drafted 16th in a weak draft in 2000, and Zilgauskas went 20th in one of the strongest drafts ever in 1996. I’m not sure you chose the best 3 players to highlight your point.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on May 21, 2008 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well I must modify the original statement

Dirk went 8th overall. Pau Gasol went 3rd overall. Parker dropped in 2001,. but that was a wierd draft. Okur went in the 2nd round. My point is that European’s have value, but at what rate is the real question. I”m not sure the players you highlighted showed a farily clear approach to define that value.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on May 21, 2008 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know the draft history. I was talking about were those players SHOULD have been drafted based on their value as they developed.

My point is, only 2-3 Europeans like Dirk and Gasol would really deserve a top 10 draft in history. And Gallinari is definitely not one of them. It’s just the same mistake NBA scouters do again n again.. drafting players like Bargnani, Belinelli too high. Europeans can be excellent role players like Peja for instance but nothing more so far.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUvANZFA51s

Watch that little breath at the 16 sec... worth the 20 million $ salary!

by ZenBaller on May 22, 2008 6:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to disagree with your zen like knowledge

But Peja made the All Star game twice. Role Players don’t do that. He might have been the 8th or 9th best player in 1996, but in most drafts of the last 10 years he would have been the 2nd 3rd or 4th best. That’s a large difference. Role players don’t usually qualify as that.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on May 22, 2008 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly

it’s just nice to not see us ending up with another promising 2 or 3. Give me a 1 or 4 with upside and I’m dancing in the street.

"Being loquacious and being right aren't necessarily always the same."
GP, the man, the myth, the legend, puts the smackdown on Reggie

by SavageBeast on May 21, 2008 6:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

TRADE UP!!

Riley said hed listen to offers for the second pick so cmon Geoff get to work.

How’s Miller, Artest, and the 12th + 42nd picks sound?
More realistically it would be Garcia instead of Miller or perhaps it would take even more than that but how sweet would it be to land Rose or Beasley.

"everything was beautiful and nothing hurt"

by richmond02 on May 21, 2008 9:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs