Popular "Wisdom"

OK, I've scoured the 'net and read better than 20 mock drafts. Some by informed folks like Chad Ford and others by guys that were distracted by having to take time out to vote for Kristi Yamaguchi as their favorite celebrity dancer.

We all agree that mock drafts are a crap shoot. But by taking the average of 20 different people we can at least narrow the scope a little bit. I used this method last year and it determined that our choice would most likely come down to Hawes or either Julian Wright or Jeff Green. So at least it was kind of close.

The mock draft tarot cards tell us that these six players will be absolutely, positively gone by the time we draft:

  • Michael Beasley
  • Derrick Rose
  • Brook Lopez
  • O.J. Mayo
  • Jerryd Bayless
  • Eric Gordon.

The data then tells us that only 12 other players will be considered as lottery picks. I also calculated their percentage of availability at the #12 draft slot, based on how many times they were selected prior to #12 on the various boards:

  • Danilo Gallinari, 10%
  • Anthony Randolph, 10%
  • Kevin Love, 20%
  • D.J. Augustin, 25%
  • DeAndre Jordan, 40%
  • Russell Westbrook, 60%
  • Darrell Arthur, 80%
  • Nicolas Batum, 90%
  • JaVale McGee, 95%
  • Joe Alexander, 100%
  • Donte Greene, 100%
  • Kosta Koufos, 100%

Going strictly by percentages, it would appear that our choice may come down to Russell Westbrook or Darrell Arthur. You could probably also say that if Westbrook and/or Arthur move up it would probably cause Augustin and Jordan to slip.

It appears that there will likey be good potential to be had at #12 at PF/C or PG. That is, even if Gallinari slipped all the way to #12, one of Randolph/Love/Jordan/Westbrook/Arthur/Augustin would still have to be left on the board.

Of course, this all changes if one of these guys pulls out of the draft by June 16th. Roy Hibbert's reversal last year likely cost us a chance at Brandan Wright or Joakim Noah (which may not wind up being a bad thing). The larger impact as it pertains to guys going back to school will probably be felt at our 2nd round picks. But if (for example) Jordan and Westbrook pulled out and went back to school, we could be choosing between Nicolas Batum, Donte Greene and JaVale McGee.

Not to worry, kids. The draft is only 36 days away...



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