Trading Kevin Martin
by section214 on May 26, 2008 2:52 PM PDT
in NBA Draft
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PrintFor the past couple of weeks we've tossed around scenarios designed to either move us up in the draft or get us an additional pick. We have sacrificed at the draft altar the likes of Ron Artest, Brad Miller, Quincy Douby, John Salmons, Mikki Moore and Francisco Garcia. One name that has not been offered up is Kevin Martin.
Allow me to say that there is no one in this draft that I would trade Kevin Martin for. But I'll also say that someone might be able to make a compelling argument as to why we could and should trade Martin for (say) Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley.
For the purpose of this discussion, let's not worry about how the other teams would feel. In other words, let's not complicate our minds with all of the reasons that Chicago would never trade their rights to the #1 pick for Martin. And let's not cloud things with what players would have to be thrown in to make a deal work, or draft picks, or back massages, or any of that stuff. Simplicity rules. Would you trade Kevin Martin for the #1 pick in this year's draft? How about the #2? The #3?
Again, don't worry about what is plausible. Jason Richardson fetched the #8 pick in last year's draft, but Golden State was motivated by cap concerns (you think J-Rich might have made the difference of a game or two for the Dubs this past year?). And TZ did a great job reviewing that and other draft day deals. You are the GM for both teams here. You have complete control. You get to make the deal, as long as it is Kevin Martin and only Kevin Martin for one and only one draft pick.
Kevin Martin is 25 years old. He will make $55 million over the next five years. He has shown marked improvement each of his past three years in the league. Of the NBA's top ten scorers, only Amare Stoudemire had a better true shooting percentage than Martin. He's not an all star (yet), but that might not be the case had he been wearing a Piston or Celtic uniform this year. His defense needs work, but Reggie Miller was never known for his defense (one shove to Greg Anthony's back notwithstanding), and Reggie will wind up in the NBA Hall Of Fame.
But Kevin Martin may not be that elusive "franchise" player, and there is talk that Derrick Rose may/will be, and that maybe even O.J. Mayo could be that type of talent. That Michael Beasley could have a Karl Malone type career.
Allow yourself the opportunity to pit Martin/Udrih vs. Salmons/Rose, or Beasley/Salmons vs. Moore/Martin (substitute Garcia for Salmons if you like). Does that change your thinking at all?
So, is Kevin Martin on your table? And if he is, how low would you go? For the purpose of the following poll, list out the players in this year's draft that you would deal Kevin Martin for. If there are three players, then you would select "A top 3 pick." If the list is only one deep, then you would choose the "#1 pick." Don't try to estimate where these guys might actually go in the draft. For example, say you like Rose, Beasley, Eric Gordon and Anthony Randolph, then figure that they will be the 1st four guys chosen in the draft and you would have to pick "A top 4 pick" to secure a player that you would deem worthy of dealing Martin for. I'm selecting "I'm not trading Kevin Martin." Of course, I also thought that Ricky Minard was going to be the better player when both Martin and Minard were drafted by the Kings back in 2004, so there you go.
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I picked "not trading ..."
His attitude, work ethic, talent and upside are too good to trade at this point. If we’re not contending in two years then we start thinking that way.
Section 214 is one lucky schmoe
My totally crazy dream scenario
Sac Out: Martin, Artest, Miller, #12 Pick
Sac In: #1 Pick, #2 Pick, Blount, Haslem, Hughes, Mourning
Why: Those picks. We get rid of Artest and Miller’s contract. Bad contracts end in 2010, giving us a lot of cap room then.
Why Not: We lose Martin and take on some bad contracts
Miami Out: Blount, Haslem, Mourning (S&T @ $2.5mil), #2 Pick
Miami In: Hinrich, Artest
Why: They get a pretty decent point guard who unfortunately had a bad year and Artest, someone Riley’s wanted. They also get rid of 2 crappy contracts. If Artest doesnt work out he’s gone in a year. There starting lineup is pretty strong except at C. We might have to throw in a second rounder or two to get it to work.
Why Not: Artest is crazy and Hinrich had a crappy year. They lost Rose or Beasley
Chi Out: Hinrich, Hughes, #1 Pick
Chi In: Miller, Martin, #12 pick
Why: Uhh, Kevin Martin rewls. Miller just played an awesome season. They get a lottery pick back.
Why not: They lose pick # 1 and have to take on Miller’s contract. Does Gordon run the point? However, Miller can easily play point center with a gunner like gordon at PG
I love this idea solely because of what we get and am too biased to see at from the other teams’ perspectives so let me know what ya think
Waitaminute
Or even better for the Bulls: They keep Hinrich and Miller goes to the Heat. This gives Miami a center that they need. It weakens them at 1 but Wade tends to run the offense a lot anyway. Plus, the Bulls keep their PG and are basically trading Hughes and the #1 for Martin and the #12.
I voted NO TRADE, but this is interesting
Obviously if this was possible I’d be for it, but even though it’s not ridiculous (you made a fairly decent proposal), it’s just not realistic (as in, it realistically wouldn’t happen – even if it made sense for everyone involved).
Using only the criteria that Section laid out, I would take the known entity in Martin over the unknown draft pick.
Using a bigger picture view, I would seriously consider trading Martin for Beasley/Rose (more likely Rose) if it was done in conjunction with another deal (or deals). For example, if the Kings traded Martin/12 for Rose/Hughes and then traded Artest for Josh Howard, that speeds up the rebuilding process to the tune of: Rose, Hughes, Howard, Miller, Hawes with another trading piece in Salmons/Garcia (or a stronger bench if you play them together, in which case Douby’s done in Sac).
But even then, a case could be made that if Rose doesn’t pan out, that the Kings would have been better off keeping Martin. We just wouldn’t know for sure until everything sorted itself out. It’s a classic Risk vs. Reward scenario: if Rose is the next CP3/Deron, then it’s a good move . . . if he’s just a mediocre/average PG, then you should’ve kept Martin.
Here’s a quick hit-list of players, by position, and the estimated cost[] they would take to acquire…
[]LARGE GRAIN OF SALT – this includes the criteria from Section’s original post.
PG:
Beno (mid-level)
Rose (Martin[])
Westbrook/Augustin/etc. (#12)
Bayless/Mayo (trade up to Top 5 or Martin[])
Ford (Artest or Salmons/Moore)
Hinrich (Miller?)
SG:
Martin ($55M over the next 5 years)
Garcia (extension)
Douby ($1.4M, $2.2M, $3.1M before needing an extension)
Mayo/Gordon (trade up to Top 5 or Martin[])
Rush/Budinger/Lee (trade down)
SF:
Artest (extension)
Salmons ($16M over the next 3 years)
Garcia (extension)
Howard (Artest?)
PF:
Beasley (Martin[])
Love/Randolph (Trade up or Martin[])
Alexander/Arthur/Greene (#12)
Moore/K9/SAR (our collective sanity)
C:
Miller ($11.3M, $12.2M)
Hawes ($11M over the next 4 years)
Jordan/Arthur/McGee/Speights/etc. (#12)
This obviously isn’t a complete list, it’s more of a off-the-top-of-my-head collection of things mentioned here in the last week or so. PLUS, I have zero doubt that I made a glaring mistake on here somewhere.
I have no idea if this is even coherent, but since I’ve typed this much I might as well post it (on a side note, I just spent five minutes trying to get an asterisk to post correctly, but apparently it’s also used to bold words, which is why I ended up with [] as my notation).
No.
No, and here’s why:
Kwame Brown
Michael Olowokandi
Joe Smith
Pervis Ellison
Ralph Sampson
That is all.
Listen
Ralph Sampson was vastly underrated. And in the right system Kwame Brown could be amazing.
And don’t even get me started on Michael Olowokandi!
That must be the "Bluetooth" system
because like Mikki Moore, Kwame Brown is hands free.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on May 27, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
i'd absolutely trade KevMart for Derrick Rose
Rose has leadership ability that we sorely need. He will be a first banana. I’d trade a second banana for a first banana any day. The fact that most voters said they’d never trade Kev just shows how sentimental they are. Sentimentality can stop you from taking big leaps forward. I’d trade KevMart and Hawes for Rose or KevMart and Artest. You name it. Anybody on our roster to get that guy. Stars win championships.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
I respect your opinion, Holmdel
Please don’t dismiss my vote a sentimentality. My vote is of a “bird in the hand” nature.
Yes, Rose has been a leader at the collegiate level. So was Martin. So was Quincy Douby. So was Bobby Hurley and Kenny Smith. To be fair, so was Deron Williams, CP3, and Magic Johnson.
Also, are we dismissing Martin to 2nd banana status at age 25? He may wind up being just a 2nd banana, but I had no idea the jury had returned with that verdict.
To recap, I would trade Martin for CP3, perhaps even Deron Williams. But would I trade him for the unknown and untapped potential of Derrick Rose? No. That doesn’t mean that I’m right. But that’s being conservative, perhaps pragmatic. Certainly not sentimental.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
And 1
Check out this list of former #1’s since the lottery was created. I count 12 of the 23 (including Greg Oden) as players that I would have traded Martin for.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
What about...
The other 11?
I count 12 of the 23 (including Greg Oden) as players that I would have traded Martin for.
What you’re saying is that you’d trade Kevin, a strong candidate to be a franchise player, for a 50% chance of getting a franchise player.
And then there’s that nasty 50% chance that you’ll have traded him for a player that turns out to be a bust, and your upward trend in your current rebuild takes a nosedive.
When you say that a certain player in the draft is going to be a top banana, there’s just no way of knowing that. Of the top 3 picks in arguably the best draft in the last 10 years, only LeBron has turned out to be a top banana. Darko? Umm, no. Melo? Close, but no cigar. Good? Yes. Able to carry a franchise? Obviously not if they needed to bring in AI.
What I’m saying (in far too many words) is IMHO, trading Martin for “potential” is craziness at this point. Later, when we have a more substantial core of players, maybe you take that risk. But why trade one of the team’s only bright spots for an unproven guy?
TickTickTickTickTickTick
by LeaguePassAddict on May 27, 2008 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions
The 12
former #1’s that I would have traded Martin for:
Greg Oden
Brad Daugherty
Elton Brand
Chris Webber
Allen Iverson
Dwight Howard
Yao Ming
Patrick Ewing (Sr.)
David Robinson
LeBron James
Shaquille O’Neal
Tim Duncan
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
No argument
(except that Brad Daugherty doesn’t ring a bell…)
But isn’t the essence of a number one pick that he’s supposed to be a franchise player, a cornerstone? And you’re only getting one about 50% of the time.
The Bird in Hand argument is totally valid here.
TickTickTickTickTickTick
by LeaguePassAddict on May 28, 2008 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I think that's Section's point
What he said was that he only would have been interested in trading Martin for about half of the last 23 #1 picks, so it’s not like he’s saying he would have made this deal every year (in which case it would only have worked out 50% of the time). He even voted NOT to trade Martin this year, back up his point.
To me, it looks like he’s listing everyone that he would have traded Martin for before they were drafted . . . and if that’s the case, he’s got about an 83-92% success rate of getting a franchise player (10 or 11 out of 12, the Jury’s still out on Oden’s health, could be the next Daugherty, although even that’s debatable because he played 8 seasons and 5 All-Star teams).
Well,
I’m not that smart. It’s not like I would have known not to offer at Kwame Brown. I guess what I was saying is that if I traded Kevin Martin each of the past 23 years for the #1 pick, I would have made out alright about half the time. Of course, this is also based on the (false?) notion that Martin is near his peak. If he gets even better (and I think he will), then maybe that list gets reduced to seven or eight players.
It’s risk vs. reward, and while I don’t think that it is worth the risk, I can certainly understand why roughly half the people that have voted would pull the trigger. That’s what really intrigued me when I asked the question. But with all due respect, I think the 21 people (so far) that would take a 6-30 pick for him are little loco en la cabeza.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Oh, I see...
I’ll make sure not to overestimate you again. =)
I agree that anything outside of the Top 5 is indefensible, and while I voted not to trade him at all in this scenario, I believe that there is at least an argument to be made for doing so. He’s the least available King in my mind, but he’s not untouchable.
And on that note, great conversation starter Section!
Rose or Beasley
works for me…
Hey, I love Kevin, and he’s the best player on this team, but let’s face it, we need to re-tool in a major way and some well considered dice rolling will be needed in that process.
A point guard of Derrick Rose’s calibre would be a HUGE boost back towards the playoffs, (see Deron Williams and Chris Paul) and Beasley is a freakin’ beast down low.
Point is, the Kings just aren’t gonna be able to draft a player like those two kids until they: A) hit rock bottom; and B) get lucky. If we could get them before we’re faced with that not altogether pleasant prospect I say “why the hell not”?
Again, Martin is a terrific player but his position would be much easier to replace than a great #1 or a big man.
(And by the way, section214, surely you know that there’s no way the Jazz or the Hornets would consider trading Deron Williams or Chris Paul for K-Mart, right? Dominant point guard = NBA contender. Great two guard = use that lottery pick wisely and keep working,)
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
Point taken
But by that logic th Bulls would have traded Jordan for Gary Payton or Kenny Anderson, and the Lakers would have traded Kobe for Mike Bibby or Jay Williams. My point was that you’re not getting CP3 or Wiliiams – just a chance at ‘em (a roughly 50/50 chance based on what I’m reading in lottery pick history).
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
KevMart is no MJ or Kobe or GP
And Derrick Rose looks to be way more of an NBA star in the making than Kenny Anderson, Mike Bibby or Jay Williams did coming out of college (just based on his size, wingspan, athletic ability and defense).
I think Mucho Moss made the right point. KevMart is a fine #2, but you can replace what he brings to the table. And if you have watched KMart play for the past three years and have heard him interviewed, you know there is no way that guy is ever going to be a Chauncey Billups type leader on the floor and in the locker room. The jury is in on that one and you’d have to be really really generous to KevMart to claim he might still surprise us on that score. As Bill Parcells says, “you are what you are”. Guys can become better help defenders, they can become better dribblers, but they don’t tend to become alphas who go into other arenas and remain as forceful and entitled and vocal as they are in their home gym unless they at least showed some of that personality over the course of their first 25 years.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
These are all excellent points
And you guys may very well be right. Let’s be fair, though. Bibby and Jay Williams were both highly touted coming out of college (both went #2) and Kobe wasn’t Kobe his first few years (he didn’t average over 20 pts. a game until his 4th year – granted, he also came right out high school). Also, Jordan was unfairly thought of as a bit of a ball hog that couldn’t win a big playoff game until they got some support around him.
Thanks for your viewpoints. I appreciate the perspective.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
I don't think you have to be a vocal leader/Alpha type
to be a #1 scoring option.
Section 214 is one lucky schmoe
by Kfan in Korea on May 26, 2008 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions
and how many years did it take Billups to develop....
into a NBA player, let alone a leader??? Billups first 5 years he was a complete bust, maybe you should look at his numbers. He has found success late but on a veteran laden Detroit team coached by Larry Brown and Flip Saunders. Billups played on 5 teams in his first 6 years which doesn’t exactly instill confidence in his leadership ability either. Given the chance to shine as the leader, Martin may or may not turn into a vocal presence but to think of dealing him at this juncture when the Kings are ready to move away from the Bibby/Artest era would be a colossal mistake unless you are getting a proven NBA star who is a leader/point guard under the age of 25 (CP3 or Williams). Let Martin have this team and if he can’t run it go get someone in 2010 who can step in as a leader on and off the court.
Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.
NO
I don’t trade Kevin unless I am getting back Kobe , Lebron or Dwight Howard.
BOOK IT!
From Puerto Rico one kings fan!!
En Español====Nunca pense que en las mentes de los que forman el equipo de los kings le pase por la mente en cambiar al mejor anotador del equipo y mucho menos el mejor defensor del equipo a la misma ves de mi parte como fiel fanatico o s quedan con Kev.Martin o se quedan con Ron Ron. una buena opcion seria negociar a Martin junto con Miller ah chicago por la primera seleccion y Huges sin seder el turno #12 para entonces cojer el centro que se nos va y con el Salario firmar uno nuevoy bueno!! otra opcion seria Artest a Miami y el pick #12 a cambio del pick #2 y Haslem entendiendose tener un quinteto de point guard usar el salary junto con Martin, Beasley, haslem y Miller teniendo que seria un excelente equipo cn reboteros y gente nueva!!! Udrih en back up de el ponti guard salary y salmons francisco quincy puedon llenar esas vacantes de guards!!! esta es mi opinon..
English=====I never thought that in the minds of those forming the team of kings will pass through the mind to change the team’s best scorer and best defender let alone the team to look the same from me as you remain faithful fanatico with Kev. Martin or stay with Ron Ron. a good option would be to negotiate together with Martin Miller ah chicago by the first selection and Huges without Seder’s turn then cojer # 12 for the centre and we are going to wage a new one good sign! another option would be Artest to Miami and # 12 pick in exchange for the # 2 pick and Haslem have understood a quintet of point guard use the salary along with Martin, Beasley, haslem and Miller taking that seriously cn reboteros an excellent team and new people! ! Udrih in the back up of salary and salmons ponti guard Quincy francisco puedon fill those vacancies for guards! this is my opinions
I like the way you think...
However, Artest and #12 will not be enough to get Haslem & #2. Miami might be willing to trade Haslem for Artest 1-for-1, but the difference between #12 and #2 is too much to add without Sacramento adding more to the deal.
Using your deal as a starting point, my guess is that it would take at least something like this:
Artest, Miller, #12
for
Haslem, Blount, #2
Miami: Wade, #12, Artest, Marion, Miller
Sac (with either Rose or Beasley): Rose/Beno, Martin, Salmons, Beasley/Moore, Hawes
With a large number of good SGs available at #12, that wouldn’t be a terrible deal for the Heat . . . although I still don’t think they would do it.
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