Friday's Trade Scenario
by section214 on May 30, 2008 9:50 AM PDT
in NBA Draft
48 comments
I thought up this one while reading R-Man's FanPost:
Brad Miller and Quincy Douby to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich and Joakim Noah.
From Chicago's side (and this only works if they are drafting Derrick Rose), they rid themselves of the $37.5 million, four year contract of Hinrich's and free up the point guard position for Rose. They acquire a high post center in Miller that they will have to pay for two fewer years than Hinrich. That gives them a backcourt rotation of Rose/Larry Hughes/Ben Gordon, and a frontcourt rotation of Miller/Drew Gooden/Tyrus Thomas, with Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni at small forward. Oh, and this probably works only if Paxson is tired of dealing with Noah.
For the Kings, they add Noah to their front line. If Shelden Williams plays as an enforcer type the trio of Noah/Hawes/Williams could develop into something sort of cool. You still have Mikki Moore while these guys continue to develop. Hinrich makes up the backcourt with Martin. You still have Artest at small forward, with Salmons and Garcia coming off the bench, so you still maintain some tradeable assets. And you have not used your draft picks yet. The $9.3 million that Hinrich is due in 2010 should still leave the Kings with plenty of cap room for the big free agent acquisition that Petrie has in his sights. If the Kings get the Kirk Hinrich of two years ago (16.6 ppg, 6 apg, 45% fgp) it's not a bad deal. If they get last year's Kirk Hinrich (11.5 ppg on 41% shooting) it's going to be a long four years.
So, thanks to R-Man's inspiration I pose the question via the following poll:
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Joakim Noah is not a throw in
want Aaron Gray?
by your friendly BullsBlogger on May 30, 2008 10:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well,
I know how impatient Pax is having to answer questions about the #1 pick (btw, let him know Geoff Petrie will gladly take the pick off his hands if it’s too much for him to bear), so I wasn’t sure how he was feeling about Jo-Jo. We love lost souls here (C-Webb, Artest, Olden Polynice, Keon Clark, Vernon Maxwell…).
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by section214 on May 30, 2008 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And 1
Noah may be too steep a price, but when you look at the teams that need point guards and their cap situations, it appears that the Bulls will have to give up something good (or take back something so-so) if they are to jettison Hinrich.
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by section214 on May 30, 2008 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hinrich doesn't need to be dumped
He isn’t good enough to block Rose, and Rose probably won’t be good enough to deserve 35 MPG right away. If there aren’t any decent Hinrich deals this summer, he could be traded midseason, and a return to normal + other teams hurting for a point guard could really pay off. The Bulls might even be able to dump a contract that actually needs to be dumped.
by hscs on May 30, 2008 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hscs
That’s totally wishful thinking. How well did that work with taking Ben Wallace off? Brad Miller and Quincy Douby make less money overall than Noah/Hinrich will.
I agree that Hinrich won’t block Rose, but that doesn’t mean the Bulls shouldn’t look perhaps for a different look to change up some of their woe’s. (This is not my way of saying Miller helps the Bulls greatly because he doesn’t.)
If Noah is untouchable than so be it. Nothing wrong with that in any way.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on May 30, 2008 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Bulls won the lottery
They don’t need to shed any salary to sign expensive free agents, and Larry Hughes expires just in time for the 2010. I’m not expecting Hinrich to play really well, but he’s not hurt, old, or paid nearly as much as Ben Wallace. He won’t be highly coveted, but he won’t be unmovable, and it’s not a huge risk to expect him to return to above averageness.
by hscs on May 30, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keeping Hinrich
If the Bulls keep him to start the season they probably keep him for the season. Not too many teams striving for the playoffs deal their starting PG at the deadline. The Kings traded Bibby and the Nets traded Kidd when they decided to pack in their season. The Bulls (by virtue of being in the east) are a lock to be in playoff contention at the deadline. And if Rose and Hinrich go to camp with the PG job up for grabs, Hinrich probably takes it just by his experience.
Bottom line, Hinrich is not worth the price of his contract right now, and concessions will probably need to be made by the Bulls to move him. Like us with Bibby, traded for expiring and a wish of a hope of Shelden Williams. Trust us on this one. We’re KIngs fans. We know of untradeable (or nearly untradeable) contracts.
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by section214 on May 30, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have no problems with the Bulls trading Hinrich for a little less production
Aaron Gray, Simmons, and Sefolosha are the only potential pot sweeteners allowed. T.J Ford is the only other extra, decent, semi-veteran point guard out there. I don’t think the Bulls are under the gun to move anyone, and they have 2 players more useless, and more overpaid than Hinrich in Nocioni and Hughes.
by hscs on May 30, 2008 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right about the PG's
Lot’s of quantity, little quality amongst this list of free agent PG’s: Sam Cassell, Eddie House, Earl Boykins, Chris Duhon, Tyronn Lue, Anthony Carter, Lindsey Hunter, Dan Dickau, Smush Parker, Jason Williams, Darrell Armstrong, Keyon Dooling, Carlos Arroyo, Beno Udrih and Anthony Johnson. Jason Hart, Jacque Vaughn and Jannero Pargo hold player options, and Gilbert Arenas and Baron Davis (and Marbury, for what it’s worth) have early termination options.
It will be interesting to see how the Bulls move forward (after the Kings, they are my favorite team).
hscs, thanks for the great perspective.
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by section214 on May 30, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other offers
Miami could offer Haslem & Smush Parker for Hinrich, in which case they wouldn’t have to ship out Noah. BTW, did Miami release Parker, or can they still include him in trades? I ask because he’s listed on the Hoopshype salaries page, but that doesn’t mean much (see Dallas-Finley).
Remember, it’s not like they HAVE to dump Hinrich at all at this point. He’s not putting them into the Luxury Tax or anything. They could keep him in a rotation with Rose & Gordon to ease Rose into the league.
by smgmatt on May 30, 2008 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smush Parker is no longer on the roster smg (I looked awhile back)
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on May 30, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smush was paid out and finished with the Clippers.
Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.
by jjham15 on May 30, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you both
I had a feeling he was gone, but I couldn’t remember off-hand (and didn’t care enough to look further).
by smgmatt on May 30, 2008 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Second Chances
I don’t know if Noah really fits into this category (I don’t think so, but it would be nice for us if Pax did), but there is something to be said about players getting second chances in a smaller market. Less media means less scrutiny, and that’s a recipe for putting problems behind you.
by smgmatt on May 30, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh man, no thanks
Even with Hinrich as the odd man out, Doug Collins slowing the game to a crawl, and Noah getting on the wrong side of a rent-a-cop, I can’t believe they’d be traded for 2 seasons of an old Brad Miller and a pile of suck like Douby.
by hscs on May 30, 2008 10:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i don't know what you mean about douby
he may not be great, but he could be good in my opinion. he didn’t get much playing time the last two years here. the kings refuse to play any rookie significant minutes in their first year and then this past year they had bibby and martin starting, with beno and garcia (with garcia also playing the 1,2 and 3 positions). true douby gets in the game and he looks confused and just uses pure energy and doesn’t think half of the time, but so does garcia to an extent. i could see douby being a good sixth man, like a ben gordon type of player. he may not have the scoring ability as gordon, but he isn’t a shitty jump shooter either.
douby needs playing time and i think he would be ok. he just isn’t going to get it here.
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by Cynema the Band on May 30, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uhm
No. I root for the Doub as much as anyone, but the evidence is pretty clear that he’s not going to be anything more than below-average bench fodder in the league.
He’s got great potential in Europe though!
Sorry Section, this trade is pretty ridiculous. Surprised you didn’t ask for their #1 pick as well if we threw in our #12. :)
"Boo Lakers! Boo Kobe! Go Kings! Go Giants! Boo Dodgers!" - my 5 year-old daughter - 4/15/08
by otis29 on May 30, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
May not be viable
But I’d stop short of calling it ridiculous. Really now, compare Bibby to Hinrich. Bibby was more expensive per year but Hinrich has the bigger overall contract (by about $10 million). I think that it was proven that Bibby was not easy to move, and in the end he was given away for nothing (The Landlord notwithstanding). The Bulls will have to come up with money for Gordon and Deng a year from now or lose them. If the Bulls draft Rose, Hinrich is a luxury they can’t afford, and because he is overpriced they will have to give him up for nothing, perhaps even have to sweeten the pot if he continues to play as he did last year. If you’re the Bulls, why keep him for another year when you can sign a veteran free agent point guard for a fraction of the price?
Granted, Noah may not have burned his bridge in Chicago, which makes this a non deal (which I believe I noted in the original post). But if the Bulls think that they are going to snap their fingers and be rid of Hinrich, they are in for a surprise. True, there are not a lot of quality free agent point guards available. But it is just as true that there are not a lot of teams out there looking to spend $37.5 million over the next four years on a guy that finished 36th in PER last year.
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by section214 on May 30, 2008 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not necessarily ridiculous when you compare contracts
But it’s the kind of deal that would look horrible for the Bulls. Giving away two young players with decent potential (yes, I think Hinrich still has the potential to be a good to very good player in the league) for a guy that is fairly close to retirement and a guy that is NOT, and probably will not be, a decent player in this league.
My guess is they could find a half dozen better offers if they wanted to.
No offense to you, I just think it’s a ridiculous scenario. Maybe not on par with the Gasol trade, but damn close.
"Boo Lakers! Boo Kobe! Go Kings! Go Giants! Boo Dodgers!" - my 5 year-old daughter - 4/15/08
by otis29 on May 31, 2008 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hinrich
If Hinrich can return to being the player that he was a couple of years ago (like Brad did last year), then he goes from being a bloated contract to being a valued point guard at near fair value, so point well taken. But I still think that until that happens he’s going to be tough to move for anything worthwhile in return.
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by section214 on May 31, 2008 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see it
I don’t see Chicago doing this. You’d probably have to throw in the #12 for Chicago to even consider it and I’m not sure I’d want to do it anyway. I’m not that impressed with Hinrich and we just got rid of a ridiculously overpaid point guard with a questionable jump shot.
by Carl on May 30, 2008 10:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m not a big Hinrich fan only because it looks like the Kings should be able to get Udrih for the same contract length at a (much) lower price. If you can get Udrih to take a 4-year deal for the full midlevel (roughly $25 million in total), you’re saving $12 million over the life of the deal, or an average of $3 million a year.
And what’s the difference between Hinrich and Udrih? Beno’s a better shooter, Hinrich has been a better distributor, both are below-average in turnovers. Hinrich’s the better defender, but Udrih offers some measure of consistency. I don’t think Hinrich’s worth the extra cash.
Also, Brad Miller’s important. If you trade Miller for a second-year, 25 mpg hustle center and maybe a slight PG upgrade, you’re losing more games than last year (all else being equal). I like Noah a lot for this team, but it’d seem impossible he + a year of experience for Hawes could make up for Miller.
(If Beno gets a five-year deal, it’d total $32 million with a peak salary in 2012-13 of $7.4 million. Martin makes $13 million that year.)
by Ziller on May 30, 2008 10:51 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I think it depends on who you have coming in through the draft
What if the Kings draft Westbrook, and say draft a Dorsey type in the 2nd round? Why not do this deal? The Kings will be young, and it will give them time to develop together, and it doesn’t take the Kings into terrible terrible territory.
I am with you Beno is the better deal, and if you’re considering Hinrich than re-signing Beno is the better option. Either way I’d rather bring in TJ Ford if you’re bringing in Westbrook. If nothing else watching TJ/Westbrook would be fun. Hinrich is just too damn boring.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on May 30, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would also be fun...
...to call them TJ Westbrook.
It just has a nice ring to it. Don’t ask me why.
by smgmatt on May 30, 2008 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that's better than "Ford Westbrook"
Sounds like one of those old faux wood panel station wagons.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on May 30, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think in terms of potential Hinrich destinations
I think Seattle is a better destination for Hinrich if Seattle can unload Watson/Ridnour I could see that being a potential Hinrich destination. If Bayless is available at 4 for Seattle then you have to think It’s easier for Seattle to go that route. Especially because Bayless’ ball handling is such a difficulty for him at this point. Either way this offseason should be what last offseason was supposed to be. Busy, busy, busy.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on May 30, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brad Miller is important, but Noah isn't a flopping, hustling ball fetcher
It’s likely that Miller will make more of an impact next season, but I doubt it’ll be much more, and Noah has his entire career ahead of him (obviously). Their total rebounding numbers are remarkably similar, but Noah will probably improve on a 15.3 TRB%, and can we really believe in a rejuvenated Miller and his 16 TRB%? Noah creates more turnovers, runs, dribbles, and passes. He just can’t shoot, but he can make layups, and he’s shown some ability to create his own scoring opportunities.
by hscs on May 30, 2008 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Make no mistake
I’m no fan of Hinrich. And Brad Miller is important to the team as currently constructed. I would have no interest, for example, dealing Miller for Hinrich straight up. The key would be Noah, who may not even be available. Hinrich is more expensive than Udrih but you’re paying for him (in part) with Miller money (or Brad bucks, if you prefer).
All told, I’d still rather move Artest/Douby (or Moore/Salmons) for T.J. Ford.
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by section214 on May 30, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miller Money? Brad Bucks?
It seems like you bring something new to the table every day, Section. Good times.
I agree with this post almost completely (especially regarding Ford).
by smgmatt on May 30, 2008 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Puzzled
I am not a rabit fan as most of you are but one question keeps bugging me. Maybe you can explain it to me. Both the Lakers and Kings fell on hard times at about the same time. Yet, the Lakers have rebounded and are ready to take the championship in the next round. The Maloofs say Petrie is the greatest thing since the invention of the wheel. What does that make the general manager of the Lakers?
by Tan Fan on May 30, 2008 6:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Two Words
Kobe Bryant
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by section214 on May 30, 2008 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget
When the Lakers traded their aging big man, they got Lamar Odom back (not to mention Caron Butler) . . . when the Kings traded their aging big man they got back Kenny Thomas.
by smgmatt on May 30, 2008 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
O'Neal
still had two good legs and some gas in the tank. C-Webb was damaged goods.
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by section214 on May 30, 2008 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand that
Shaq helped the Heat win a title in Miami, I wasn’t saying he and Webber had the same value. I was just pointing out that the Lakers might not have been in quite the same situation as the Kings were (even aside from Kobe).
Caron Butler became Kwame Brown’s Expiring Contract which became Pau Gasol. Brian Skinner became nothing of value. Not exactly apples & apples, even at their lowest point.
by smgmatt on May 31, 2008 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I supose it worked out
But the aquisition of Kwame Brown for Caron Butler was almost as horrifying as trading Kwame for Gasol. If the Grizzle don’t giftwrap Pau for the Lakers Kobe Bryant is a Bull and this whole conversation is moot. If you watched the WCF trophy presentation you could still see Kupchak’s fresh blood on the Devil’s contract. I knew that GMs would go to hell and back for a championship but that is just ridiculous.
Does anyone else find it apalling to see Jerry West handing out the WCF trophy? I know he was not involved in the Pau trade but c’mon. He was just too close to the situation for it to seem appropriate. There’s your conspiracy theory Cytheria (or whatever the hell your new name is NBA Officials are on the Take).
by Mityt on Jun 1, 2008 1:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A really, really good writer
over at AOL Fanhouse had his take on that very thing a couple of days ago.
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by section214 on Jun 1, 2008 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We obviously need GP to go work for Orlando or Cleveland
Then we can get Howard or LeBron for K9 and Reef.
Section 214 is one lucky schmoe
by Kfan in Korea on Jun 1, 2008 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would seem to me that Jery West is still the GM of the Lakers.
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by kangsfan on May 30, 2008 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uh I meant Jerry West.
Can the Kings have Chris Bosh for free?
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by kangsfan on May 30, 2008 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still Confused
All the things you are saying being accurate, that would make one conclude that rather than the second coming Petrie missed some opportunities to have the Kings up there with the Lakers. Petrie is responsible for Kenny Thomas isn’t he?
by Tan Fan on May 30, 2008 8:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Petrie is responsible for Thomas
as part of the Chris Webber deal. I suppose it was Petrie’s fault that C-Webb blew out his knee, which prompted the trade. Petrie did not give Thomas the contract that he currently has.
Good grief, doesn’t anyone remember what it was like around here before Petrie was hired? 2nd coming? No. Top 10 GM? Easily.
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by section214 on May 30, 2008 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And two straight losing seasons
And things don’t look to get any easier in the West.
I agree though, Petrie is probably the right guy to run this ship since there are really no better candidates out there. However, he still needs to prove (just my opinion of course) that he can build a team for a coach not named Adelman. Jury’s still out on that one.
"Boo Lakers! Boo Kobe! Go Kings! Go Giants! Boo Dodgers!" - my 5 year-old daughter - 4/15/08
by otis29 on May 31, 2008 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hindsight
I think even more so than Webber blowing out his knee (or at least as much so) is the fact that Kenny Thomas became completely unmovable when his production fell. We all knew that the Webber deal couldn’t fully be evaluated until subsequent deals were made:
Step 1 was breaking Webber’s contract into smaller, movable contracts.
Step 2 was then using those contracts to get something positive done.
Those moves in Step 2 just never happened, so now it looks like the Kings might have been better off waiting out Webber’s deal. Obviously this is hindsight talking, but I think for some it’s a mark against GP. Whether or not that’s a fair criticism is debatable.
by smgmatt on May 31, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This trade is very lopsided...
...I can’t see the Bulls trading two young players with upside for an aging center that lacks an inside game and an unproven tweener. Don’t get me wrong, I would love the trade, but I think at the very least we’d have to give up the #12 pick, or we would have take on one of the Bulls bad salaries (e.g., Nocioni instead of Noah)
by R-Man on May 30, 2008 8:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good Point
If I remember correctly, though, Miller is the one that is coming off the better season. His total contract is $14 million less than Hinrich, who is entering his 6th year, so I don’t know about his “upside.” I wouldn’t trade Miller and his contract for Hinrich and his contract, would you? As far as taking on one of their bad salaries, that’s Hinrich, at least based on how he played last year.
As I’ve said before, there is no deal as long as Noah has not worn out his welcome. And if Chicago selects Beasley they don’t need to trade Hinrich. But we know how hard it was to deal the $28 million Bibby. I just don’t think that Hinrich will be easily dealt by the Bulls.
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by section214 on May 30, 2008 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hinrich will be easier to move than Bibby...
Bibby had a bigger contract and was older. Plus, Hinrich’s deal is rare in that it declines each year (i.e., each susquent year is less than the previous), making him a bargain by the end of the deal if he gets back on track.
by R-Man on May 31, 2008 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Declining Contract
I’ve loved that the Bulls were doing this when they had the cap room. I thought it was genius. Pay more upfront when you have the space, and then you can continue to bring in high salaries when those get low, or overlap your big salaries with increasing salaries if your Championship window is close enough to take that chance.
OH, and it works great for older players whose talent may decline over the course of the contract (imagine if K9’s contract got smaller every year!).
I’m shocked that more teams aren’t doing this, and I was hoping that Martin’s contract would look that way (although that $3M would have pushed the Maloof’s closer to Luxury Tax territory this year, so I get why they didn’t).
by smgmatt on May 31, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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