Narrowing Our Options
We're still about three and a half weeks away from the NBA draft, and while a lot can change in the next few weeks, a lot won't, especially as it pertains to the top 12 picks. The general consensus of the current class of draftees has been honed over the past year. Personal workouts may move a few sleepers up the board (for reference from last year please see Young, Thaddeus) and every few years there is a guy that slips (please reference 2006 and Williams, Marcus).
But for the most part, these players will be drafted within a range of where they are currently projected. After reviewing the last few drafts I have found that almost 95% of the players selected in the top 12 are taken witihn 5 slots up or 5 slots down of where they were projected by a compilation of "experts." By "experts" I mean virtually anyone that posts a full 1st round mock draft. And while that is ridiculous, I have found that if you gather at least 20 mock drafts, the overall average of those mocks will give you a list of draftees that will be about 95% accurate (using the 5 up, 5 down rule).
Using last year as an example, Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Al Horford and Yi Jianlian wound up right on their projected numbers. Mike Conley, Jr. and Jeff Green both jumped five slots, while Brandan Wright and Julian Wright each fell four slots. Acie Law IV (from 15 to 11) and Thaddeus Young (from 16 to 12) jumped into the top 12, and J.Wright (from 9 to 13) and Al Thornton (from 12 to 14) fell out of the top 12. Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, and Spencer Hawes also fell within the parameters.And even though the volatility of B.Wright and Green could be attributed to draft day trades, they both fall within the parameters of the 5 up, 5 down rule.
Let's apply the 5 up, 5 down rule to this year's class and see how it will impact our options at #12. The number that you will see next to each player is their average draft position, the result of compiling 25 mock drafts.
Derrick Rose(1.5), Michael Beasley(1.6), O.J. Mayo(4.5), Jerryd Bayless(4.7) and Brook Lopez(4.8) will all be gone by the time we pick. Using our formula Beasley and Rose would not drop past #7 (duh) and Mayo, Bayless and Lopez won't slip past #10.
Next we come to Eric Gordon(7.2), Danilo Gallinari(7.4), Anthony Randolph(8.0), Kevin Love(8.4), and DeAndre Jordan(9.3). These guys will likely be gone, though there is a small chance that one of them could drop to us. You can find scenarios out there that have each of these guys going in the top 5. Gordon will go lights out in a workout somewhere, and he will convince someone that he is more Mitch Richmond than he is Ben Gordon (which is also not a bad thing). Regarding DeAndre Jordan, just remember that Patrick O'Bryant, Saer Sene and Andrew Bynum did not last past the #10 pick. That tends to happen to 7 footers with perceived athleticism. Someone will envision Randolph on a weight program. Love will impress. Gallinari is the wild card here, but for most of us wanting PF and PG addressed in the draft, we're probably more worried that he will drop to #12.
At this point I will add that if by some miracle one of these guys dropped to #12 Petrie would likely snap them up. Even Lopez or Love. While their talents might be somewhat redundant to those of Spencer Hawes, GP won't pass on that type of talent for need.
That's 10 players gone and we pick #12. Russell Westbrook(11.2), D.J. Augustin(11.6), Darrell Arthur(13.3), Joe Alexander(14.4), Donte Greene(16.7), and JaVale McGee(17.4) come next, with Marreese Speights(18.2) falling just outside the parameters. One of these guys may wind up in Indy, but let's not worry about that for the time being. Our choice has been simplified to Westbrook (is he an NBA point guard?), Augustin (is he big enough?), Arthur (can he/will he rebound?), Alexander (a small forward), Greene (small forward, part II), McGee (very raw) and Speights (also raw).
Easy, no? All that hand wringing and it comes down to six, maybe seven players to choose from. The poll will take it from here. It's now up to you to bring us home a winner. Remember, the top ten guys that I listed are gone, so if you're going to click "other" in the poll it should not be for one of those guys. Use it for Robin Lopez, Roy Hibbert, Chase Budinger, Nicolas Batum, Brandon Rush, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Ty Lawson or any of the other guys that couldn't crack the top 17.
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Like usual Section you're a wise sage
If there is ever such a prime example as paralysis by analysis, the month before the draft is a prime example. You see so much talk about this that and the other, and the truth is, most teams have made strong decisions on whom they want to draft by this time. The only thing they’re doing at this point is deciding if they want to go against what they know already, or found something totally discouraging, or another direction that may come up that’s unknown until a certain time (like draft day).
Thanks, again, for the wisdom.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
speights
I got a chance to see one of Speights workouts on ESPN.com along with Alexander’s. Speights is big with nice hands, can shoot the ball, and looks to be rather athletic. The guy on the video was saying speights may be that player we look back on and say “he went that late in the draft?” I find him very interesting. He was stepping out and hitting the 3’s, nailing elbow extended jumpers regularly, and had some nice moves in the paint. He is a sleeper, the kings should pay attention. I can envision him and Hawes together in a couple years, what a duo that would be. I would grab Speights before Arthur any day. Speights will be a BEAST! Hopefully with the Kings!
Nice Work
Nice Work Section! Every compliment that I would have like to have given has been said in the above threads!
I have a hunch about this off-season fellas. I strongly believe that as the draft approaches, Petrie will make a solid attempt to jump up in the draft..And I’m not buying Petrie’s, etc assertation that the Kings big offseason is the 09’-10’ seasons. Petrie is a guy who traditionally keeps his card close to his chest. He has also proven over and over again to be “misleading” when it comes to player movement.
Why not now? I fully understand (about as well as any die-ard NBA fan without a finance degree can) the salary cap situation and how that can limit player movement on any given team. Therefore, by packaging the #12 pick with a role player, our ability to move up in the draft this year will not (should not) negartively affect our $$.
I have seen some very interesting trade proposals on here, especially intriguing to me were the ones that involved the Bulls. However, given Petrie’s history, I dont believe hne will make a multi-player deal unless he feels he gets equal production in return. therefore, I see the Kings packaging the #12 and a player (most likely Salmons, Garicia and any combination with Douby) to move up a few spots in the draft with the possibility of acquiring a “throw in” backup PG as well.
I see the Kings attempting to move up in the draft by trading with one of the following teams as a real possibility; The Nets, The Bobcats or the Bucks. I’d be willing to bet that Petrie has his eye on at least one guy in this draft that he really wants (I’m guessing that it is either Love,Westbrook or Bayless) and he’ll do everything in his power to get them. Even if that means parting ways with any combination of Salmons or Garia, and Douby.
So once again, Great post Section!!!!! However, something tells me that the Kings will not have the #12 pick in the draft this year!
That workout vid of Speights
is worth watching. Alexander also really shines there.
I too would say Speights should go before Arthur. Speights has some serious question marks, and the scouting at Draft Express particularly noted that he slipped into some bad habits, (especially with his shooting) later in his workout, but his physical gifts are real and his ceiling seems quite high.
As for Westbrook, wow, it’s sooooo tempting if he’s there: a very athletic, super-quick guard who can defend is exactly what we want IF he can dish out assists and run an offense at the NBA level. That is a pretty big if, though. Basically the guy came out of nowhere this year. He’s not a great shooter, and they say his natural ability in terms of seeing the whole court
If Petrie grabs either of those guys I’m content that it’s about as good as we could do with a #12 pick.
However, just to make things interesting I voted for Alexander. If you haven’t paid much attention to him yet, check out that video clip 214 mentioned, or watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YkitJ5-wuQ
Sure, small forward isn’t a priority, but I’m thinking of a post-Artest world, and I do think that we should take the best player in that spot rather than draft for need.
Joe Alexander is an athletic freak, and by that I mean even at the NBA level he has the kind of physical abilities that could allow him to take over a game. His combination of size and length, explosive strength, leaping ability and overall agility would make him a match-up nightmare as a 3.
He has a really sweet jump shot with a beautiful arc that is pretty much unstoppable and that he nails with confidence from pretty much any spot on the court out to about 17 feet.
From his on-line interviews he seems like a very focused and extremely determined kid who is devoted to improving every facet of his game. (The Draft Express scouting report terms it a “maniacal” work ethic). He’s only been playing hoops for (I think) five years, so he really has some serious upside.
I understand that Alexander has not gone unnoticed by the Kings, and if he’s the pick, I’m cool with that too.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
Wow 86 of 118 votes for one of the 2 PGs at the time of this post
That really surprises me. I’m really not convinced that either or the 2 PGs on this list are the answer. It’s not too often that a college SG gets remolded into a top flight NBA PG, that’s just really rolling the dice, and I’m not sure the upside is that great. I’d say the FUCLA guy’s upside is a backup guard in a 3 guard rotation. I’m not sold on DJ either. I’d rather roll the dice on one of the bigs that has Bynum-like potential or trading up or down a bit wouldn’t upset me either.
Section 214 is one lucky schmoe
Its like we were seperated at birth.
This is my issue as well. Neither of these points project as starting NBA guards. In the heated Douby discussions of the past this has always been my issue. Regardless of need, GP made a horrible pick in Douby when both Josh Boone(PF) and Marcus Williams(PG) were still on the board. Regardless of how these players have panned out, Douby projected as a back-up 1/2 with limited experience as a play maker. Williams was projected in the top 5 picks overall and rated as the 1/2 point (with Randy Foye) in the draft and Boone fit both a need and projected as a better player at the pro level than Douby.
So again, why draft a point projected as a combo or back-up at the pro level and leave a player with amazing upside at a power position on the board and at massive position of need. The bigs on the board may all be busts but the if the Kings can find the next Andrew Bynum or Carlos Boozer to match up with Martin and 30 million in cap space two years from now then we are talking about a championship caliber team. If they draft a point and then lose Beno because he doesn’t feel they have faith in him (due to the draft pick) then the Kings set themselves back and we as fans watch some crappy ball next season.
Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.
Dude...
Why u hating on Scooby already? Some guys take a bit longer, look at Wallace, Gerald. Let’s exude some patience. I’m not ready to call him a bust yet but I’m not going to say he’s a future all-star. Marcus Williams and Josh Boone are overrated. Boone is getting minutes in an absolutely terrible frontcourt., which, IMO was the worst in the NBA. Last year Mikki Moore was the best player in their frontline.
If u really think GP should have picked someone else, you should tell Petrie he should've took Rajon Rondo. He's the starting point guard for a NBA Finals Team.
BOOK IT!
Already????
Douby vs Wallace is a very bad comparison. Douby was a 22 year old college senior who should be a lot more polished than he is even today. Wallace came to the Kings as a 19 year old freshman who didn’t even start in college. Douby has no potential to start (when drafted or now), no natural position on the court (still to this day), and has not been successful at learning how to run a team or score consistently for a very marginal team. Gerald Wallace is a natural small forward (albeit with limited shooting range) who has developed because he earned minutes on a bad NBA team and improved every year in the league.
When Petrie drafted Douby it was a mistake IMO. Not only were two better players on the board (Boone and Williams) but both players had a natural position and the Kings were in need of both of those positions. I agree that both players are overrated now but when drafted, both players were higher on every draft board available (except GPs).
So, in short, I don’t hate Douby, I just think that he was a bad pick in principle. GP should have chosen not only the best player available but also need, which IMO and most basketball people was not Douby but Williams or Boone. I would like this to not happen again this year, instead, I would like to see GP take a flier on a big and not a back-up point or combo guard who will never be starters in the NBA like Q Douby. Sometimes you have to gamble to come out ahead, I would like to see the gamble involve an athletic 7 footer.
Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.
I hear you...
kfan.
I cut myself off in my previous post, but to finish my thought about Westbrook, I meant to add that his court sense and ball handling ability don’t seem to be NBA ready, at least not to the degree we’re going to be looking for (ie a point guard who’ll be in the same ballpark as Mike Bibby in terms of effectiveness within two or three seasons).
I can see Westbrook has a lot of gifts, and he’s still learning; but his drawbacks can’t be taken lightly either.
DJ Augustine… I should research him more, I guess. Exciting college player but I have a difficult time getting past his size (or lack thereof). The Longhorns listed him at 5’11. Does that mean he’s really like 5’9!?
Dammit…. can’t we come up some more fantasy scenarios that have the Kings moving up to get Derrick Rose?
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
Judging College PG's
Is anything tougher than judging a college PG? Usually (though not always), the one’s that get tabbed as “pure” point guards earn that distinction because they can’t shoot, thus making them “pass first” PG’s. Mike Conley, Raymond Felton, and Rajon Rondo would all fit this bill.
Deron Williams’ college credentials did not scream “I’m an assist machine.” He was a shoot first PG because he was one of the better scoring options at Illinois. Guards that have been drafted in the latter stages of the lottery that would fit this bill include Jason Terry, Terrell Brandon and Tim Hardaway.
As TZ pointed out so well, most of the new breed of successful point guards are guys that can score and dole out assists. Can Westbrook or Augustin be one of those guys? I suppose that if the answer were a resounding “yes” then they would both be long gone before the 12th pick, the same way that Arthur would be gone had he been a more consistent rebounder.
Although I voted for Westbrook I too am surprised at the high percentage of votes being thrown at the guards. From the various posts and threads that I have read here over the past few weeeks, perhaps it is because there are more projected FP’s that might be lying around in the 2nd round than PG’s.
Whatever the outcome, rest assured that the player that we draft at #12 will be met with equal measures of excitement and angst.
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Well, the poll seemed to ask “who would the Kings pick?” Not, “who should the Kings pick?” I think the reason why so many people voted for PGs is due to our need at PG, as well as the crop of PG talent to be drafted in the lottery. The only other PG I see that should be picked up in the late 1st to early 2nd would be Ty Lawson.
So, it really leaves Petrie with 2 options:
1 – Draft a small, then either hope some bigs are available in the second round, such as; Ryan Anderson, Jawai, or Joey Dorsey (a great gamble with Dorsey, since he’s drawing lots of comparisons to Ben Wallace). Or, Petrie can trade up with his 2 picks and secure one of those players.
2 – Draft a big and hope Lawson is around in the second round. This is where I would find that Petrie would really need to trade up with the 2 picks, or even package someone in for a late first round pick to try to secure a Ty Lawson pick, since I don’t see much more PG talent later in the draft.
So, I feel that people might feel safer picking up a small, early on, rather than taking a big risk on a big, then lay our team hopes on re-signing Beno, and/or picking up Lawson.
westbrook
I voted for speights b/c I feel westbrook will be picked up by the clippers. I live in L.A. and it sounds like the Clippers have a lot of interest in westbrook and I don’t think he’ll be around. I watched all of his games this year at UCLA and he will be a very good player in the L. He reminds me of a fellow named Monta Ellis but bigger and better defense. If the Kings have a shot at him it’s a no brainer. He’s a ball hawk and it would be a great day if he was available! We can only hope…
by socalkingslover on Jun 1, 2008 10:39 PM PDT reply actions
One more thing.....
Westbrook and Martin together would be a blur….......good luck opposing defenses!
by socalkingslover on Jun 1, 2008 10:40 PM PDT reply actions
welll...
from a talent perspective, i think i’d like to have westbrook at 12 (if available). however, something tells me this might be the time the kings should focus primarily on pressing team needs: rebounding and someone to run the offense.
our rebounding problems are well documented, and dont really bear much repeating. and from what i’ve seen this past year, our offense really bogs down without a playmaker (beno or bmiller) on the floor. we have a decent spread of offensive weapons in martin, salmons, garcia, artest….so it seems pure PG would fit the bill. in this case, i would give augustin the nod over westbrook. granted, augustin is undersized and might not be a great defender, but its not like we’re packed with stalwart defenders at each position anyway ;)
when it comes to addressing rebounding, it doesnt seem like there will be much distinctive talent left at #12, so i’d go with the most athletic big left (preferably at the 4) who showed the ability to board at the college level.
My question is are we drafting for '09 or '10?
I don’t know that we have the ability to fill the four and one from the draft. the odds are very highly against it. I think Westbrook has a better shot at becoming a PG of the future than any of the projected available guys do of being the four of the future. I think we have to assume that 09 is only going to be a step toward ‘10, not a success or failure in and of itself.
"Being loquacious and being right aren't necessarily always the same."
GP, the man, the myth, the legend, puts the smackdown on Reggie
Augustin over Westbrook
I don’t follow college basketball very well. I’d like to do better, but it just doesn’t happen. So I get very little information to base my decisions on, very few games watched. I rely on my guts. I’ve been wrong several times, just look at my outrage when we drafted Hawes last year. That being said, though, I didn’t hear a thing about Westbrook until the tournament started. Is he actually that good, or was he part of a good team? If he gets drafted the right NBA team, will the distinction matter? I don’t know the answers to these questions. What I do know is that when I have watched college ball, and caught games involving Augustin, I was very impressed by him. He seems like an excellent young point guard who comes up big when it matters. Again, I watch very little, so if these observations are not the norm, I apologize. I just can speak to what I feel.
"Rapport? You mean like, 'You run as fast as you can, and I'll throw it as far as I can'?"
-Jeff Kemp, 49ers quarterback, when asked about his rapport with wide receiver Jerry Rice

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