2008 NBA DRAFT PLAYER RANKINGS by DALT99 (Complete List)
by dalt99 on Jun 21, 2008 7:19 PM PDT
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PrintNow that the date has come and gone to pull out of the draft, I hope everyone will indulge me as I post my rankings of ALL the main players coming out for the 2008 NBA Draft. Four years ago I created a statistical system to rank college players based on many factors such as height, age, position, experience and of course season game stats. I created this system to take the college stats of each player and project their NBA potential. Each player's score is rated from zero to as high as the low 100s, though most scores of prospects fall between 50 and 105. This can be used for any player coming out of college from as far back to the early 1980s. I have seen some great results with this system such as having Brandon Roy and Rajon Rondo ranked as the 2nd and 3rd best prospects coming out of college in 2006. Yes, you could argue that Rudy Gay (4th) and LaMarcus Aldridge (9th) are better than Rondo but Rondo was criminally drafted as the 21st pick! Also in that draft the system had Jordan Farmar as the 14th best prospect, Paul Millsap as the 9th best and Leon Powe as the 16th best prospect. Those players were drafted 26th 47th and 49th respectively and are showing to be much better than where they were drafted. Consequently I do admit to the system not being perfect by any stretch of the imagination. Nick Fazekas (12th) from last year’s draft has shown flashes but not even close to where a projected lottery pick should. Tyrus Thomas (1st) has lots of potential but is still raw and Quincy Douby (15th) well, hopefully he will come along. Still on average it’s had a very good showing each year with many more successes than failures. It takes a lot of time to figure out all the player’s rankings in a draft so forgive me for posting this so close to draft day!
Now, below are the rankings in order of highest to lowest score. If you are curious, before the list is a (relatively) brief explanation of the scores and what they represent.
00-60: NOT NBA MATERIAL. Just about 90% of the players in this range will go undrafted and never make an NBA roster. The ones that do get drafted rarely last in the NBA for more than a season or two.
60-70: ROSTER FILLER/END OF THE BENCH. Very rarely will a player scoring in this range ever make any big impact in the NBA. Almost all of them will be out of the league in less than 3 years. Most players in this range never even become drafted into the NBA. Notable players in this group include Maurice Ager (69) and Darryl Watkins (65.5).
70-75: THIRD STRING/CAREER RESERVE. Not many players who score in this range make a large dent in the NBA. Some will have solid careers as a backup, usually in the specialist role such as a good 3-pt shooter. Players in the group include J.J. Redick (73.5), Steve Novak (72) and Mateen Cleaves (71).
75-80: CAREER RESERVE/6TH MAN. A wide range of players find themselves in this group. Some will find the right team to stick in the NBA with and some will not. A lot of specialists (sharp shooter, shot blocker, volume rebounder) will find roles on teams for many years while a player without any great skill or consistency in one area will usually be out of the league within a few seasons. Players in this group include Daniel Gibson (79.5), Eddie House (79.5) and Lawrence Funderburke (76.5).
80-85: 6TH MAN/FRINGE STARTER. A player in this range usually will make it in the NBA as a solid back-up on the right team. Many of these players will even find themselves in the running for Sixth Man of the Year. Sometimes a player in this range will be a starter if that team does not have a good player at his position. Players in this group include Brandon Bass (83), Bobby Jackson (81.5) and Aaron McKie (80.5).
85-90: FRINGE/SOLID STARTER. Players in this range are usually talented enough to make an NBA roster as a starter, but may or may not be good enough to be a full-time starter on a good team. The closer they are to 90, the much greater chance that they will end up being a career starter. Most, however, will at least have a long NBA career. Players in this group include Marcus Camby (89.5), John Salmons (87.5), Francisco Garcia (86.5) and Doug Christie (85.5).
90-93: SOLID STARTER. A player in this rage will usually impact any team he plays on. He may not be the best player on the team (sometimes is the best player on a bad team) but will usually be a very productive and valuable player for most of his career. Some players in this range go on to be all-stars or are just missing the cut. Some of the great players scoring in this range include Jason Richardson (92), Shareef Abdur-Rahim (92), Gerald Wallace (91.5), Ron Artest (91) and Spencer Hawes (91).
93-96: SOLID STARTER/ALL-STAR. This is the start of the elite groups. A player in this group will almost always become a very solid starter in the NBA. Over 80% so far have. Many in this range (about 50%) have even gone on to be an all-star or multiple all-star. Players in this group include Chauncey Billups (95), David West (93.5) and Joe Johnson (93.5).
96-98: ALL-STAR. This is where some of the franchise players begin to show up. Starting with this score range, the best players in the world are in this group and above. A player in this group will usually, by his 30th birthday, be a multiple (two or more appearances) All-Star. The closer to 98, the more appearances are probable. This group can be the most difficult to gauge however because only so many players can be all-stars and many very good players in this range (such as Zach Randolph, 97) miss out. Also, a few players such as Drew Gooden (97) and Corey Maggette (97.5) never reach the potential that their college stats indicated. Players such as Rasheed Wallace (96), Ray Allen (96.5) and Paul Pierce (97.5) are in this elite group.
98-100: ALL-STAR/FRANCHISE PLAYER. Same as the 96-98 group except a player in this group is likely to become a superstar. Players like Carlos Boozer (98), who was a 35th pick in the draft, Chris Webber (99.5) and Dwyane Wade (99.5) fall into this category.
100+: SUPERSTAR/NBA MVP. The cream of the NBA crop. Players such as Tim Duncan (100), Allen Iverson (102.5) and Shaquille O’Neal (105.5) have fulfilled their college statistical projection of Superstars.
Rank Player-Class Pos. Score
1 Michael Beasley-F F 102.5
2 Kevin Love-F FC 97
3 Derrick Rose-F PG 96.5
4 Marreese Speights-So FC 96
5 OJ Mayo-F G 93.5
6 Ryan Anderson-So PF 92.5
7 Richard Hendrix-J FC 91
8 Bill Walker-So SF 91
9 Nathan Jawai-Euro C 90.5
10 J.J. Hickson-F FC 90.5
11 Chris Douglas-Roberts-J SG 90
12 Jerryd Bayless-F PG 89.5
13 Anthony Randolph-F FC 89
14 Jason Thompson-Se PF 89
15 Brook Lopez-So C 88.5
16 D.J. Augustin-So PG 88.5
17 DeAndre Jordan-F C 88.5
18 Mario Chalmers-J PG 88.5
19 Aleks Maric-Se C 88.5
20 Tony Lee-Se G 88
21 Darrell Arthur-So PF 87.5
22 Omer Asik-Euro FC 87.5
23 Nicolas Batum-Euro SF 87.5
24 Russell Westbrook-So PG 87
25 Joe Alexander-J SF 86.5
26 Eric Gordon-F SG 86.5
27 Sean Singletary-Se PG 86.5
28 Reggie Williams-Se GF 86.5
29 Roy Hibbert-Se C 86
30 Walter Sharpe-So PF 86
31 Joey Dorsey-Se PF 85.5
32 Kosta Koufos-F C 85.5
33 David Padgett-Se C 85.5
34 Danilo Gallinari-Euro F 85.5
35 Jamont Gordon-J G 85
36 Maarty Leunen-Se PF 84.5
37 Malik Hairston-Se SF 84.5
38 George Hill-J G 84
39 DJ White-Se PF 84
40 Donte Greene-F F 84
41 Shawn James-J PF 84
42 Courtney Lee-Se GF 83.5
43 Trent Plaisted-J FC 83
44 Darnell Jackson-Se PF 83
45 Brandon Rush-J GF 82
46 Gary Forbes-Se GF 81.5
47 J.R. Giddens-Se GF 81.5
48 Serge Ibaka-Euro FC 81
49 DeMarcus Nelson-Se G 81
50 Sonny Weems-Se GF 81
51 Mike Green-Se PG 80
52 Darian Townes-Se FC 80
53 Kyle Weaver-Se G 80
54 Davon Jefferson-F PF 80
55 Robin Lopez-So C 78.5
56 DeVon Hardin-Se FC 78
57 James Gist-Se F 78
58 Will Daniels-Se F 78
59 Anthony Slack-Se F 77.5
60 Bo McCalebb-J G 77.5
61 Goran Dragic-Euro PG 77
62 Mark Tyndale-Se G 77
63 Wayne Chism-So PF 76.5
64 James Mays-Se PF 76.5
65 JaVale McGee-So FC 75.5
66 Jeremiah Wood-Se F 75
67 Jamar Butler-Se PG 75
68 Shan Foster-Se SG 75
69 Josh Duncan-Se F 75
70 Marcelus Kemp-Se G 74.5
71 Charles Rhodes-Se PF 73
72 Chris Lofton-Se G 72
73 Novica Velickovic-Euro PF 71.5
74 Reggie Larry-Se F 71
75 Kentrell Gransberry-Se FC 70.5
76 JaJuan Smith-Se G 70.5
77 Kyle Landry-Se FC 70
78 Kojo Mensah-J PG 70
79 Justin Hawkins-Se GF 70
80 Quan Prowell-Se SF 70
81 Sasha Kaun-Se C 69.5
82 Brian Butch-Se FC 69.5
83 Mike Taylor-Se PG 69.5
84 Othello Hunter-Se F 69
85 Anton Ponkrashov-Euro G 69
86 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute-Se F 68.5
87 Sundiata Gaines-Se G 68.5
88 Mykal Riley-Se GF 68.5
89 Bruce Price-J PG 68
90 Rob McKiver-Se G 68
91 Draelon Burns G 68
92 Patrick Ewing Jr.-Se F 67
93 Deron Washington-Se GF 66.5
94 Joe Crawford-Se SG 65
95 Bryce Taylor-Se SG 65
96 Charron Fisher-Se GF 63
97 Kalen Grimes-Se FC 63
98 Pat Calathes-Se F 61.5
99 Tyrone Brazelton-Se PG 61.5
100 Martin Zeno-Se G 61.5
101 Durell Vinson-Se PF 60.5
102 Richard Roby-Se SG 60
103 Jiri Hubalek-Se FC 59
104 Jaycee Carroll-Se G 58
105 C.J. Giles-Se C 58
106 Kevin Bell-Se PG 54
107 Dion Dowell-Se SF 46.5
108 Derrick Low-Se PG 45
109 Boris Meno-Se PF 42.5
110 Alex Harris-Se SG 42
While this is not as good a crop of players this year, the Kings should still be able to draft a player or two that can help out fairly soon. If anybody would like an explanation of why a player is higher or lower than you expect I will try to explain! If you want to know the score of any player from the past 30 years, just ask! Also, if anybody would like to me, I will gladly post the rankings of the past couple NBA drafts.
(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)
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Thanks for all the work
Wow, Ryan Anderson is ranked high. As a Cal grad, I like that. I’m curious, what was Kevin Martin’s College number? Or better yet the college numbers for all the current Kings.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
Kings' Scores
Yah, Ryan plays in the tough Pac-10. Many good colleges in that division so his numbers are quality. He was very productive this season with 10 rebounds and 21.1 ppg. He is one of the better scoring PF in college at 25.7 per 40 minutes. He was the main man at Cal so he has experience as a go-to player. He also shot over 40% from 3-pt range at 6’11”. Impressive. I think he is being underrated in the draft so far.
Here are the current Kings player’s scores:
Brad Miller – 96.5 (Remember, he went undrafted! He may not quite be as good as this score indicates but he IS a 2-time all-star and one of the top 10 centers in the league)
Shareef Abdur-Rahim – 92 (A bit past his prime now)
Kevin Martin – 91
Ron Artest – 91
Spencer Hawes – 91
Lorenzen Wright – 89.5 (Also past his prime unfortunately)
John Salmons – 87.5
Shelden Williams – 87.5
Quincy Douby – 87.5 (c’mon Q-Dub, reach your potential!)
Francisco Garcia – 86.5
Kenny Thomas – 81.5
Anthony Johnson – 78.5
Mikki Moore – 72 (Great job by him to improve his game like he has)
I could not rate Beno Udrih because I couldn’t find any of his European statistics. Former King Mike Bibby scores at 95.5
He can shoot, and he looks great in a suit. Hey, everybody - It's REGGIE TIME!
Thanks for the quick response
This really helps put the numbers in perspective. I’d say you’re numbers do a pretty good job predicting. Maybe a bit over rated for Shelden and Q-Dub, interestingly both players who are a bit short for their positions.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Jun 22, 2008 1:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Sheldon and Q
You are right, but remember, they are only 24 years old and most players will not reach their score potential until the ages of 25-27. My system actually does take into account a players height and position and will put a negative score to an undersized player such as Douby and Williams. Those scores for them already have been adjusted. There are some characteristics however that my system (and just about any purely statistical system) just can’t quantify. For instance, unless you know the player very well, it’s basiclally impossible to score someone on things such as basketball IQ, leadership qualities, competitiveness, adaptability, work ethic, man-to-man defensive ability and athleticism. For example, Michael Jordan, who scores a 97.5, is obviously the best player of all time because he rates extremely high in every one of those characteristics. Obviously, even the scouts back then did not see his true potential since he was drafted behind Sam Bowie! lol
He can shoot, and he looks great in a suit. Hey, everybody - It's REGGIE TIME!
I find it interesting you have Speights 4th overall
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Interesting
Some of these numbers with current NBA players are spot on… Hopefully Hawes develops into a player as good as Ron Artest and Kevin Martin.
You forgot Alexis Ajinca.
After Galinari he’s the most intriguing European player, and DraftExpress has him going to Portland at #13. In fact, they speculated today that based on his workouts this week he could go as high as #9 to Charlotte.
If you want to check him out look at the links on my Sactown post from Wednesday.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
Alexis
I have stats of his from 2006 but I don’t feel it’s enough to rate him very accurately. With the stats I do have he would score an 86. I don’t have any readable stats of his from this year. If you can find some, I will be thrilled to score him. Personally I think he should go in the mid first round. He does look like he has some major upside. Still VERY young and raw but definitely skilled.
He can shoot, and he looks great in a suit. Hey, everybody - It's REGGIE TIME!
I love your stats on these guys
I’m not really sure to what make of them, but I find it interesting you put them into a hopper/database and see what comes out.
I’m not shocked by where anybody’s really at, except for Speights. Then again I haven’t looked at his numbers as a collegiate player because I don’t really see the point. That what I have you for. :)
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
No Pookey!
Don’t do it ,my friend. Don’t look at the numbers. I have had basically no life for the past month while I have been researching all these college players and crunching the numbers. It’s not for anybody with a life. It strains marriages! lol
Actually, I am a sick man so I love it but it’s time consuming. As far as Speights goes, he averaged 24 points,13 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 40 minutes per game while shooting 62% from the field. That’s is fantastic for a sophomore (or any college player). With his athleticism and the fact that he played with Al Horford and Joakim Noah last season, he has a lot of upside.
He can shoot, and he looks great in a suit. Hey, everybody - It's REGGIE TIME!
Stats are so meaningless to me anyway as a college player to a pro
I think they mean something, but I’m not exactly sure what. Take Durant for example. At Texas he played forward, and in PJ Carleismo’s infinite wisdom (which is a kind way of saying he’s a dumb coach who should have never left his ass kissing role of Pop) he was a 2 guard which cut into his boards. The College to Pro’s transistion is one that is a bit difficult to describe, but I will say this for Speights. 8.4 boards in 24 minutes is something to behold. I likey that much.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Please
Don’t say they are meaningless or I have wasted WAY too many hours in my life. lol. Anyway, whether they are or are not meaningless I continue to do it and you can look at the results in the next few years to decide for yourself. You have a good point though. Durant was playing a different position than he was in college. No way he gets 11 rebounds a game playing the SG position in the NBA. Still, even though he only shot 43%, he had a pretty good season for a 19 yo rook. Jeff Green on the other hand is what made me shake my head. I had him as an 84 (fringe starter) so how he got chosen as the 5th pick I don’t understand. He has not impressed me yet either. 10.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 42.5% shooting from the PF position is not going to get it done though he is only 21 years old. He may surprise me. As far as Randolph goes, compared to Speights, Randolph averaged 19 points, 10 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per 40 minutes while only shooting 46.5%. That was on a bad team in LSU too.
He can shoot, and he looks great in a suit. Hey, everybody - It's REGGIE TIME!
Yep Randolph has talent
I’d be surprised if he dropped past the 15th pick because he’s the type of player that could thrive in Phoenix.
I don’t care how you spend your hours of your life. That’s up to you. I’m just not sure that the college to pro translation of numbers mean much other than a particular person trying to highlight what they like about a player. Whether they are meaningless? Shit if I know dude. What I do know is that numbers aren’t automatically transferable from college to pro. As Jerry Reynolds said about coaching vs pro, the players are better on the pro level and can do more, and therefore as a coach you have to do more. I think Speights from every angle is the player who I find most intriguing. What’s nice is the Kings won’t have to trade up to get him, and they could trade down a few spots and get him potentially too. At the 12th overall pick, they don’t have to lose much by taking him, or Arthur, or any other player. They already have talented role players as it is.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Not Meaningless
OK, I will answer my own question. I know for a fact they are not meaningless because I have used my mathematical system to score many many players from the past 30 years and it’s been much more accurate than most of the GMs have been. Of course there have been some big misses as well. You make a fantastic point that there are way too many intangibles to translate college stats to the pros in a consistantly accurate way. There will always be some players that will play great in college and then not have the confidence or work ethic to succeed in the NBA. The intangibles I can’t quantify (such as work ethic, basketball IQ, leadership qualities, competitiveness, adaptability, etc.) can make a big impact on how a player will improve or not improve in the NBA. That’s where the scouts and the interviews/workouts with the teams come into play and become important. I still feel that while no statistical system is perfect, my system is a good gauge as to how good a player COULD be if most of those intangibles are there. If ALL those intangibles are there, like they were for Michael Jordan, than that player will most likely far exceed his statistical potential.
He can shoot, and he looks great in a suit. Hey, everybody - It's REGGIE TIME!
I didn't say they were meaningless
I’m not just sure what the exact value is. Maybe you feel it’s higher than I, but that’s in part because you feel you have a quality system in draft talent. I didn’t say it wasn’t a quality system, or it was. I said I don’t know. There is a vast, and important, difference. The thing that stuck about Speights to me is how well he rebounded in 24 mpg. That’s something I feel is a positive attribute that outweights another high risk reward talent like Randoph. ( I also think Speights other net skills fit well with Shawes too.)
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Lawson
I know you only ranked the players that stayed in, but I’m curious to know where Ty Lawson would have landed in the rankings.
Ty Lawson
If Ty would have come out he would have ranked 4th with a 96.5 score. So I have him projected as a future All-Star. Basically by his 27th birthday. So about 5-7 years from now. The system’s projections are based on when the player reaches his peak which seems to fall around ages 25-27. Some players like LeBron are mature early while players like Francisco Garcia seem to need more time.
He can shoot, and he looks great in a suit. Hey, everybody - It's REGGIE TIME!
You deserve bonus points for having Thompson 14th overall Dalt
You deserve alot for that. Props are deserved when due, and you deserve them.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Thanks Pookey
Again, the stats are the stats and coupled with his 14 boards per game and 3 assists, 3 blocks and 23.5 points per game along with 57% FG shooter, you have a very talented big man at 6’11”. He played at Rider so he gets a fairly large negative modifier to his score which brought him down to a 89 from a 97.5. So if he can really improve he could become a near all-star. That won’t be for a few years though due to his playing at Rider.
He can shoot, and he looks great in a suit. Hey, everybody - It's REGGIE TIME!
That means nothing as CDR's drop proves
Where you play at college means less because after all, in college, you aren’t playing in the NBA. I knew who Jason Thompson was, but I’m probably more frustrated I didn’t look at him, but then again I didn’t think Petrie would take a player like him either. I’m happy with Thompson though. More happy than i would have been with Randolph, Rush, Hibbert or even necessarily Augustin.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
At This Point
I am more frustrated with taking Patrick Ewing Jr. with the 43 than I am with Thompson. Let’s see, there was still Bill Walker, Richard Hendrix (who I swear is this year’s Paul Millsap) and Reggie Williams. He scores at a 67 which is terrible AND he is a senior which means he is probably not going to exceed his potential by much. Hendrix and Walker both have potential to be solid starters at the PF and SF position respectively and the Kings passed on them. Many teams may be very sorry they did.
He can shoot, and he looks great in a suit. Hey, everybody - It's REGGIE TIME!
by dalt99 on Jun 26, 2008 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's incredible
I wouldnt have thought that he would have ranked that high to be honest with you. I feel more comforted now.
As far as Hendrix and Walker that’s potentially true too. That’s always true of the 2nd round. The draft can be a total crapshoot, but some things are generally more obvious than others. (Like taking Derrick Rose first overall for instance.)
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
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