Trading Up/Down
by section214 on Jun 25, 2008 8:47 AM PDT
in NBA Draft
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PrintOver the past few weeks there has been a lot of conversation here regarding trading up or down in the draft, and there has been at least some level of frustration that we are not doing anything to imporve our situation. While I share the frustration (doesn't the 9th pick look oh so much better than the 12th pick right now?), I'm not sure that anything can be done about it.
The Miami Heat and Memphis Grizzlies are (supposedly) having conversations about swapping picks. Memphis would send Miami Mike Miller, Kyle Lowry (though Miami wants MIke Conley) and the #5 pick for something like Mark Blount, Daequan Cook and the #2 pick. If this is true, we don't have nearly the components to make such a deal. The closest we could come would be Hawes, Salmons and the #12, and that offer pales when compared to the Grizzlies package.
So let's think the #7 spot, one ahead of Milwaukee, which would likely secure us Joe Alexander or one of Bayless/Westbrook/Augustin. What do we have that would excite the Clippers enough to trade down five slots? I don't think Salmons or Moore would do it, they wouldn't want Miller, we can't trade Ron on draft night. Would you swap Garcia or Hawes for Brevin Knight to move up five spots in this draft?
So we get to #12 and there are five or six guys that we like about the same. Let's trade down. The problem here is two pronged. First, you have to find a trade partner within the next five picks that does lust after a specific player. Second, they have to have something that you want and that they are willing to give up to move up a few spots. Let's eliminate Portland and Golden State from this conversation, as I just can't envision them giving anything up to move up two slots. Phoenix may like Brandon Rush enough to want to insure securing him. But I don't know that the #12 and John Salmons would be enough to secure the #15 and Barbosa, especially since there has been conversations with the Suns and the Clippers regarding their #7 and Corey Maggette.
I can't figure out a deal with Philly. Toronto has Ford. If Toronto wanted to swap picks as part of a Salmons for Ford deal, would you do it? That seems like an awful lot for Ford, but when healthy Ford is legit and you're still drafting at #17 (and you've retained your 2nd round picks). I should note that this deal might not even work as Ford is a BYC player, and if it did work it would drive the Kings right to the cap limit, so it's bye bye Beno (or anybody else). If you don't make this deal you now need to drop to #18 or below to make a deal.
Washington has Brendan Haywood, but you would have to (a) like him and (b) either give up Salmons, Moore, or Williams/Douby to make the deal work. Is that enough juice to make that deal? Cleveland really has nothing that they could trade us. Denver showed last year that they don't want to part with Kleiza, and while GP has interest in Nene he is not interested in his 4 year, $43 million contract. The Nuggets have been talking to the Nets about Macus Camby. Would they swap picks with us and send us Camby for Salmons and Moore, or Salmon, Douby and Williams? Doubtful.
Would New Jersey (at #21) swap the enigmatic Marcus Williams and their pick for the #12 and Douby? Would we want to do that?
I can't find another deal until I get to Seattle at #24. Watson and the #24 for Moore and the #12. Yuck. And at this point you've pretty much traded out of the wheelhouse of the 1st round.
My long drawn out point is that I don't think that it's a matter of Geoff Petrie not wanting to make a deal. I think it's a matter that he doesn't have the working pieces to execute a deal. Such is the problem of a team on the rebuild. Teams like Portland and Atlanta have the working pieces to move around on draft day, but that is a result of them sucking longer than the Kings, which resulted in consistently higher draft picks. Kevin Pritchard has done some really slick stuff in Portland, but without the picks he does not have Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge or Brandon Roy on the roster (I know, Aldridge and Roy were technically draft day trades, but they were made possible because the Blazers had high draft picks).
OK, kids. Pens and paper out, and click on shamsports or Hoopshype or wherever you like to go for salary information. Your assignment is to craft a draft day deal that works. Ron Artest is excused from this exercise for good behavior. Eyes on your own paper, and begin.
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Petrie
My guess is if he can’t trade down, he’s still going to pick the player he wants, even if it’s perceived to be “way too early”.
"Boo Lakers! Boo Kobe! Go Kings! Go Giants! Boo Dodgers!" - my 5 year-old daughter - 4/15/08
That's why I stumped so hard for Speights yesterday Otis
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Leave the rambling in incoherence to me sir
The reason Ford for Salmons can’t be done is simple. The trade value matches up but the salary doesn’t. I will do what I did yesterday.
Ford’s salary: 8.2 million Salmons salary: 4.75 million (for the 97-08 season)
Ford’s trade value: 4.1 million Salmons trade value: 4.75 million
For most players their trade value is the same as their salary, except for when they are BYC or PPP. (I won’t bother to explain the PPP provision. It’s too difficult to understand if you’re failing to grasp BYC.)
Now for the rest of your stuff. I think moving up or down is hard to do without giving something up. Moving up I’m not sure is worth it since Bayless, Mayo, Gordon, and Westbrook are all top 10 talents. I’m not sure the Kings need to trade a rotation player to get any of those guys. Also I’m not sure if 12 is the worst position to be in since so many players are so close to each other in this draft after Rose and Beasley.
Normally I think stockpiling draft picks is nice and a worthwhile thing to do. But it also creates playing time issues, and I do think getting Shawes into the game caused Reggie Theus some difficult decisions when Shawes was still recovering. It took nearly 3 months for Spencer to find any kind of quality flow before he even produced a little bit. You can only have so many rookies on a team before you end up where the Sonics or Wolves are currently at.
I’m not going to bother to bust out a draft day deal because I think one is pointless. I would rather the KIngs draft a Speights like player and work with him all year long. You can only have so many players on one team, and only so many young players to work with. I like the idea of staying pat with the 12th overall pick, and the 42 and 43rd overall picks myself to fill roster hole’s by looking for a sleeper at PG, C or both.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
I'll take a shot
From Chad Ford:
Let the LeBron 2010 Sweepstakes begin. The Nets are dangling this pick [smgmatt: #10] along with Richard Jefferson in an attempt to get under the cap by the summer of 2010.
If this is legit, Brad Miller for Richard Jefferson & #10 works (according to RealGM). It’s more realistic than other possible 2010 ideas (such as say K9/SAR – which also works, btw).
This frees up playing time for Hawes, almost guarantees that the Kings get a PG from the Westbrook/Bayless/Augustin group (picking before Indy at #11).
BREAKING THE RULES: this also makes an Artest for Ford deal more likely. And if that happened, we’d be watching a rotation of….
Ford/Augustin, Martin/Garcia, Jefferson/Salmons, Moore/Williams/#12, Hawes/Moore/#12
Back to dreamland, if K9/SAR flies instead of Miller (perhaps without the #10?), and Salmons/Douby work instead of Artest…..
Ford/Garcia, Martin/Garcia, Jefferson/Artest, Artest/Moore, Miller/Hawes
ONE MORE!
If you bring Artest back into the equation (after the draft) then perhaps a deal with Portland would be an option (they’re looking for a Veteran):
Outlaw, Jack, Player picked at #13 for Artest should work under the cap.
Ok, I’m done.
Sweet bro
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Jersey
Great thoughts. But I would think that the Nets could get (for example) Al Harrington and the #14 from the Warriors for Jefferson and the #21, or Hedo from the Magic straight up, or maybe even Mobley and the #7 for Jefferson and the #21, or Camby and the #20 for Jefferson.
Except for Kevin Martin, I believe that Richard Jefferson scored more points per salary dollar than any of the other top 10 scorers in the NBA. He is a very good player and the Nets don’t have to be in any hurry to deal him, as 2010 is still some time off.
Again, I like the deal. But my bet is that someone would come along with more assets. It would probably take Miller and our #12 for Jefferson and no pick, or Moore/Garcia/Williams/#12 for Jefferson/#21.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
All good points
After I finished my post I wondered if it would take more to get a deal done.
- Miller/12 for Jefferson/10?
- Miller for Jefferson/21?
- Miller/12 for Jefferson/21?
- Throw in Douby?
- Add #42 or #43 to the mix?
- Include Garcia?
- Salmons? (least likely, as he still has salary in 2010)
I like the Moore/Garcia/Williams/12 for Jefferson/21 deal, although the thought of getting a PG at 10 is very enticing. Then again, looking at Dalt’s rankings, there isn’t much difference there between Augustin & Chalmers, so maybe Chalmers could still be picked up at 21!
Beno?(MLE)/Chalmers?(21), Martin/Salmons, Jefferson/Artest, Artest/Dorsey?(42/43), Miller/Hawes
The Kings would lose a lot of their depth, but when you get the best player in any trade, it’s should almost always be considered a good trade.
On another note, had the Kings picked up NO’s pick at #27, there would be a lot more options . . . which just has to be worth $3M, doesn’t it?
More Rambling
I agree with you section that Petrie doesn’t have the pieces to accomplish what he almost certainly wants. My point earlier, and maybe I didn’t communicate it well, wasn’t that the Kings had to make moves just to make things interesting. It was that this draft is deep and they should take advantage. Now, as pookey suggests, maybe that means staying at 12, 42 and 43. But I believe if there is a deal to be had, and especially if gets rid of one of contracts that are simply waiting to expire, then now might be the time to act. Overall though I’m in agreement with both section and pookey, maybe I’ve been getting too impatient.
"... if you watch the way I play, I'm not going to be flashy. I'm just going to get it done. I led the league in free throws made per game. There's nothing soft about that." - Speed Racer
Just so you know -
I wrote this post before I read your post. Mine was based solely on thread comments that have been made over the past several weeks.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
I believe last year was the year to make the move
This year is the year to stay pat. To the day I die I think Petrie made a large mistake not dealing Artest or Salmons or both in a move to move forward. I will believe that, as I said, to the day I die. These moves were there last year. But, because, the coaching search dragged on too long, and because it was handled so poorly and clumsily maybe that hurt the deal. Maybe the “we always gotta win mantra” was spent too much too often being repeated too. (I vote on the latter playing a huge part.)+
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
..."to the day I die."
Or until Hawes becomes an all star, whichever comes first. So, how’s your health, pookey?
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Not too good
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Force fluids and get a lot of rest -
Drink until you pass out.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
It's called Buttface Amber Ale
That’s my sleeping pill!
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Last year
would have been ideal, but I still think Petrie will find a way to make amends, even if that means holding still for this draft.
"... if you watch the way I play, I'm not going to be flashy. I'm just going to get it done. I led the league in free throws made per game. There's nothing soft about that." - Speed Racer
Gallinari
If he were to fall to #12 Petrie could select him as trade bait. Rumors have consistently had him going to either New York or New Jersey, but if both those teams passed on him that might not mean they wouldn’t give up something else to acquire him.
What if. . . New York selects Gordon or Bayless at #6 and Love falls to New Jersey at #10 . Petrie picks Gallinari at #12. Sacramento then sends Gallinari to New York in exchange for David Lee and a Future Draft Pick. Would you take Lee over Randolph? Hibbert? Speights? Arthur? I’m not sure I would, but that’s the game so there it is.
"... if you watch the way I play, I'm not going to be flashy. I'm just going to get it done. I led the league in free throws made per game. There's nothing soft about that." - Speed Racer
Yes
you gotta take Lee over any of those question marks!
If Gallinari falls to us, everybody sing “hallelujah”! If Petrie can somehow turn that into David Lee… well, just hope that he didn’t have to go down to The Crossroads at Midnight and sell his soul to the Devil.
Hey, wait! Can we still trade the pick for Joakim Noah!
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
On David Thorpe's chat today...
Someone asked if Memphis would trade the #5 pick to NYK for David Lee. He said that Memphis would do it in a heartbeat, but there’s no one good enough at 5 to warrant trading Lee….
Last year this might have gone through under the chaos of Isaiah. This year, I think Donnie is too smart to give up his one solid player.
A trade idea
John Salmons to Cleveland for Damon Jones and the #19. Throw in Douby or Williams if necessary to make it work. Jones does little for the Kings, but he expires at the end of the season cutting a ton of salary, and they can pick Hibbert (or whoever) at #19. The problem with trading Salmons is that it’s a given that Artest needs to go. If they both go, the Kings are suddenly thin at small forward.
SF is the easiest position to fill
make it happen
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Jun 25, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
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