Staying Ahead of the Curve
Lets all take a trip down NBA history lane. Hold on to your hats, take my hand... ok, don't take my hand.
In 1995, the "popular" thing to do was to take NCAA production from big schools in the draft. In the meantime, a then obscure, now infamous GM named Kevin McHale fell in love with a skinny 6'10 HS kid and took him with the 6th pick overall. It was considered a reach at the time, but nobody knew then what Kevin Garnett would become. It was the type of move that would be blasted by the likes of ESPN today. The next year, Kobe Bryant fell all the way to 13 and Jermaine O'neal went 17th. The year after that, Tracy McGrady went 9th. They were the only prospects to be drafted straight out of High School since Moses Malone.
Fast forward to the early 2000, where High Schoolers (and by extension due to the no HS rule implemented in 2006, college freshmen) are now all the rave. People scour the prep landscape searching for the next KG, Tmac or Kobe. Prospects are lauded for their massive potential, dreaming of what the 18 or 19 year olds will look like when they are 24 or 25. Kwame Brown goes first overall in 2001. A record 8 high schoolers get taken in 2004. And in consecutive years (2007 & 2008), new records are set for the amount of Freshman taken in the first round. Despite huge numbers of busts, scouts are fueled by gems like Amare Stoudemire, Al Jefferson, Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, and Lebron James, and continue to drool over their potential.
Ok, now go back to 1996. The Kings are on the clock. Fans are screaming for John Wallace of Syracuse. "With the 14th pick in the 1996 NBA Draft, the Sacramento Kings select... Pedrag Stojakavic from Serbia-Montenegro." The City of Sacramento grabs it's torches and pitchforks, thirsty for blood. No European had been selected in the first round since Vlade Divac in 1989. And yet, when the young man does come over from Europe, he explodes. Wallace fades into obscurity, and Stojakavic is an instant steal. The floodgates are cracked, and would be open forever two years later, when the Mavericks traded the rights to Tractor Traylor for German star Dirk Nowitzki. ESPN laughed, claiming that the Mavs had been hoodwinked. And yet, we all know the story. Tractor Traylor is a joke, and Dirk is an MVP winner. Not to mention Manu Ginobli, who fell all the way to 59th (!!!), quite possibly the greatest second round steal of all time.
Forward again to the 2000s, where Europeans have exploded beyond imagination. Driven by the success of the Kings' Euro trio of Divac, Peja, and Hedo, scouts are now all over Europe trying to find the next Ginobli. Go onto NBADraft.net and see how many "Dirk Nowitzki" comparisons you can find for the most obscure kids. "Tall, mobile, skilled" becomes the mantra for these guys. Skita goes 5th in 2002. Darko goes second in 2003, the first of a record-setting amount of Euros taken in the draft that year. All culminating with Bargnani going first overall in 2006, the first Euro taken first in NBA history. Euros become infamous for busting, yet nobody wants to miss out on the next Tony Parker (28th, 2001).
So, what's my point through all of this? Well, pools of talent go in and out of fashion throughout NBA history. HSers and Euros are a perfect example of this. Those who are the trendsetters are those who open the floodgates with their steals never thought of by ESPN or mock draft websites. There is a danger, though, of striking when the iron is cold and coming off looking like a fool. But the truly brilliant GMs have perfect timing in their selections, and all it takes for one reach (KG, Dirk) to open the floodgates.
So how does this relate to the Kings? Well, we just took Jason Thompson 12th overall. Draft graders are ridiculing us. Mock drafts were destroyed (including mine lol). And yet, we are again tapping into a pool of talent that hasn't quite becoming trendy yet: the mid-major school. We've done it before, with Kevin Martin in 2004, which was a runaway success. And yet, guards don't usually set trends, it's big men that do. People are terrified of mid-major big men because of Olowakandi. Perfect example of striking when the iron is cold. Because of that fear, people just haven't taken a good look at some of the talent in the mid-major level. People may say that all of the true talent gets recruited into the bigger programs. But, that doesn't account for late-blooming players like Kmart or JT, who don't blossom until later in their college careers.
I'm not saying that JT is going to be a super steal, it's still up in the air. I'm just saying that over time, there have been areas of talent that just aren't accessed, and the GMs who stay ahead of the curve and the trendy thing to do are the ones who get major steals. Who knows, maybe scouts will scour the land looking for the next Jason Thompson in a few years.
I also would like to note that NCAA seniors are also being horribly underrated these days. They don't have the potential of underclassmen, but have much less bust potential and still normally have room to improve. The Kings took 3 NCAA seniors this year.
(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)
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well said. I commend.
Recd for now till thoughts can chew some more. Great Post.
Mikki Moore in the skills challenge! - LPA
by iashwash on Jun 28, 2008 2:44 PM PDT 0 recs
Tip of the hat
“Rec” of the post.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Jun 28, 2008 2:55 PM PDT 0 recs
Nice well thought out post
Sometimes you hear that smart investors see what the masses are doing and do the opposite. For instance the guys who went around buying up property and such during the depression, got richer. I’m sure there are people today who are actively grabbing foreclosed houses for pennies on the dollar, who will then turn them for huge profits in a few years.
I think this fits in with your point. When everyone starts going freshmen, Petrie goes senior. Sounds like a smart move to me.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Jun 28, 2008 6:18 PM PDT 0 recs
i like
But too bad JJ Reddick and the Landlord haven’t lived up to the hype.
BOOK IT!
by kingme18 on Jun 28, 2008 8:41 PM PDT 0 recs
HYPE
We’ll see, but the NBA folks can get fed and counter fed by thier own hype. Nothing creates more hype than the ‘new kid’ or the ‘new idea’ or the guy who gets on television a lot. The more I think about this guys size and the fact that though he was in the MAC, he got double teamed every night because a guy like him was IN the MAC and still put up 20 and 12. We’ll see but I wonder as with a guy like Stuckey and Landrey whether we’ll see very soon that this guy can play. AND he has better size and numbers coming from college than they did.
eternal skeptical optimist
by lietothegirls on Jun 29, 2008 2:21 AM PDT 0 recs
Technically Shawn Kemp went to college
But since he never played at the Junior College in Texas he enrolled in, some consider him a straight jump to the pro player as well. Thought I would throw that out there. Your point about the big “4” is well taken regardless.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Jun 29, 2008 12:48 PM PDT 0 recs
Overall Scirocco
I enjoyed the post. Well thought out, and well stated to boot. I agree with the idea of trends, and I think it’s perhaps more important for Petrie to scout the Mid-Major school’s of talent.
I think the thing about Mid Major’s is that they haven’t produced their share of uber talented game changing NBA talent’s yet. Those guys all went to major schools. (Maybe the lone exception’s are Bill Russell and KC Jones who went to USF, but college basketball was very different in the mid 50’s than today). One example that sticks out in my mind, and again it’s a very old one, is Elgin Baylor who played at Seattle University in the late 50’s. Again, Baylor also led SU to a NCAA championship game in 58 before graduating and being signed to the Minneapolis Lakers.
But other than Baylor and Russell, who were playing in less saturated media at the time than they would be now, it’s hard to remember a mid major player becoming a game changing talent in the likes of the big names usually thrown out. That’s why I think, to this day, so much focus is on the big conferences.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Jun 29, 2008 12:55 PM PDT 0 recs
True
This is an excellent point, there is a reason that the mid-major hasn’t exploded yet. There are late bloomers like Thompson and KMart out there that get underrecruited, and just maybe one of them might break through.
by Scirocco on
Jul 3, 2008 9:09 AM PDT
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One Problem
I enjoyed your post, and it’s something I’ve been thinking about as well.
The one complaint I have is this:
But the truly brilliant GMs have perfect timing in their selections, and all it takes for one reach (KG, Dirk) to open the floodgates.
You’re using Kevin McHale and Donnie Nelson as your examples of truly brilliant GMs?I know McHale wouldn’t be on my list, even though the KG pick was great. What’s that saying about the sun even shining on a clock’s ass or a dog being right twice a day?
McHale’s handling of the KG-era was worse than Brian Sabean’s handling of the Barry Bonds era in SF. I find it a little more than ironic that KG won a title in post-Timberwolves Year 1.
Sorry to get off-topic, I really did enjoy this post. Good stuff.
by smgmatt on Jun 30, 2008 6:52 AM PDT 0 recs
But your point brings up a great point
There is an awfully fine line between sheer genius and sheer idiocy. And one need look no further than Danny Ainge, who has lived on both sides of that line in the last two years.
And a lot of it is “luck” properly executed. McHale squandered his luck where KG was concerned, the same way that Danny Ferry is squandering his luck in Cleveland. On the other hand, R.C. Buford and Greg Popovich capitalized on their Tim Duncan luck. Yes, they would have won a championship with Duncan and David Robinson no matter what. But the additions of Parker and Ginobli to an already good team turned them from one hit wonders into a quasi dynasty.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on
Jun 30, 2008 8:19 AM PDT
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Well...
That just enforces the point that one must look at the entire body of work, and not just some of the pieces.
Your prior comments regarding the decade of success that GP was responsible for should probably have more weight than any individual transaction that I/you/we didn’t like.
by smgmatt on
Jun 30, 2008 9:47 AM PDT
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Agreed
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on
Jun 30, 2008 10:43 AM PDT
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Good point
You’re right, nobody in their right mind would call McHale a genius. I’m guessing that’s just the blind squirrel finding an acorn.
by Scirocco on
Jul 3, 2008 9:08 AM PDT
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And me also
How this next yr or so go will truly tell. Petrie and the Maloofs dug themselves into the salary cap hole because they had a contender. They’re on the verge of climbing back out. How they/he do it will confirm or cast doubt on his body of work.
eternal skeptical optimist
by lietothegirls on Jun 30, 2008 1:25 PM PDT 0 recs
Thanks
Thank you for the compliments and recommendations. I had fun writing it too :D
by Scirocco on Jul 3, 2008 9:07 AM PDT 0 recs
Thank You
For writing it and sparking a good debate.
by smgmatt on
Jul 3, 2008 10:27 AM PDT
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Off topic
but what if Isaiah Rider, Stephon Marbury, Latrell Sprewell, and Sam Cassell weren’t crazy? What if the T-Wolves hadn’t lost their first round picks for five years in the prime of KG’s career? Obviously what-ifs are meaningless and McHale is ultimately accountable for the failure of the KG era in Minny, but it is interesting to think about.
by furious.d on Jul 3, 2008 8:36 PM PDT 0 recs
Dont Forget
David West went to a mid-major (Xavier) and he is an NBA all-star at the 4, so it might be becoming the new trend. Look at Bogut at no. 1 a few years ago.
by VenomySnicket on Jul 5, 2008 9:50 AM PDT 0 recs










