For the Amateur Capologists ...

by Ziller on Jun 29, 2008 8:03 AM PDT Comment 26 comments

Since we're all throwing around salary numbers in our discussions of Beno Udrih and the other point guard options, it helps to have the most accurate picture of the salary cap, luxury tax and mid-level numbers as possible. I asked around at the APBRmetrics board, and was pointed to this May piece on DraftExpress, which has some estimates of those figures:

The most interesting thing to come out of the seminar might have been the insight that was revealed about next year’s cap figures and the NBPA’s plans regarding the upcoming CBA. Next year’s salary cap is currently being estimated at 58.5 million dollars, up from 55.63 million dollars. The luxury tax threshold is projected to rise to 71 million dollars, up from 67.865 million this year, and the Mid-Level Exception is expected to rise to 5.55 million dollars, up from 5.36 million. These are not final or official numbers at this point, but rather the NBPA’s estimations, as they were told to us.

The important ones for Sacramento's purposes are the luxury tax and mid-level. We had been estimating a five-year mid-level would cost about $32 million. Here's what would actually be, based on these estimates from the Players Association:

2008-09: $5.55 million
2009-10: $5.99 million
2010-11: $6.44 million
2011-12: $6.88 million
2012-13: $7.33 million
TOTAL: $32.19 million

(Holy crap that was a good guess!)

Beno will turn 26 years old next week, so this deal would expire before he turns 31. Chauncey Billups is 31 years old. Derek Fisher is almost 34. Both are shooter-points, and both got free agent contracts last summer. Barring catastrophic injury or rampant suckitude, Beno should be worthy of minutes all the way through this contract.

But is he worthy of the salary? section214 has done the comparisons several times, and the mid-level salary seems well within Beno's wheelhouse. So the question becomes: is he good enough to be the starting PG in 2011, 2012, 2013 with the team where we'd like it to be? Is he a contender-level starting PG?

The jury's out. Some people think he's the next Gail Goodrich, after all. Some think he's a career back-up. Obviously, the truth is out there. The Kings could win or lose either way.

One more cap-related glance: how close are the Kings to the luxury tax, assuming both possible Ron Artest scenarios?

With Artest, without Beno: $64 million -- $7 million under the tax
Without Artest, without Beno: $56.6 million -- $14.4 million under the tax
With Artest, with Beno: $69.5 million -- $1.5 million under the tax
Without Artest, with Beno: $62 million -- $9 million under the tax

If Artest stays and Beno gets his full mid-level from the Kings, Sacramento will be flirting with the luxury tax. The best case salary-wise would probably see Artest opt out and Beno stay -- there'd be plenty of breathing room for potential expiring contract trades, and we'd have a point guard not named Francisco Garcia.

I know most hope Artest stays in so that the Kings can "get something" for him. While he's a hell of a talent and possibly a decent chip, I'd be fine if he opted out: it allows Petrie that much more flexibility this summer.

I'll have my personal thinking on Beno tomorrow morning. In the meantime, new featured poll.

Poll

Should the Kings offer Beno Udrih the maximum mid-level: $32 million for five years?

Yes

123 votes

No

234 votes

357 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 26 comments

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Comments

If Beno is that good

why would he want to sign a 5 year MLE deal anyway? Why not sign a full MLE deal for 3 years, prove what he is worth and go get the big bucks?

"Being loquacious and being right aren't necessarily always the same."
GP, the man, the myth, the legend, puts the smackdown on Reggie

by SavageBeast on Jun 29, 2008 9:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

After his career to date, I imagine he wants some security. He’s got tight jeans to purchase, you know.

by Ziller on Jun 29, 2008 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one wants Beno

He’s solid, nothing else. This year he averaged 13 points and 4 assists. He also hits a few threes and get a few steals, but overall I think his ceiling is around 15 points and 5 assists. Not a championship caliber point guard unless we have a big three outside of him, but even then we’ll need a pure point guard who can average 7+ assists. Beno shouldn’t be signed for the mid level for that long. I would say you go three years at the most.

by HarbirD on Jun 29, 2008 10:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree that a 3 year MLE

is about what Udrih is worth. But I would bet that if that is all that we offer he will wind up somewhere else. It only takes one team to offer the five year MLE, and point guards are at a premium. Just take a look at the free agent PG’s. Someone will pony up the extra two years and $14.2 million for Udrih.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Jun 29, 2008 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

3 yrs

And see how it goes. He played well but 3/4 of a season isn’t enough to pledge to him for five years. If additional years were options – I’d be fine.

I really like the guy, he clearly can play in this league. The question is whether there’s any additional upside.

On the Artest opt-out: I think wishng that is a big mistake! Correct me if I’m wrong Ziller – but if he opts out we DON’T have 9 mil to play with, we’d still be over the ‘salary cap’ so all we could offer would be the MLE. You can only exceed the ‘cap’ without penalty up to the luxury tax threshold in signing your OWN free agents. (?)

eternal skeptical optimist

by lietothegirls on Jun 29, 2008 11:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

True

but if he opts out we DON’T have 9 mil to play with, we’d still be over the ‘salary cap’ so all we could offer would be the MLE.

And Beno would use that, but it would allow us to take back extra salary in a trade(the 125% rule) without paying tax. TZ isn’t clear if the numbers he uses above include JT or not. If they don’t then our number with Artest and Beno may be over the Tax with JT and the 2nds.

That would mean we’d need to take back less salary(again using the 125% rule) in any upcoming trade.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Jun 29, 2008 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

3 year MLE.

5 years are too many. The last thing we need is risk our cap for another overpaid untradeable player. As most of you said the 3 year MLE is great. It’s perfect because he will have only 1 year left in the pivotal 2010 summer when Reef’s, K9’s and Brad’s contracts expire. Thus, he’ll be tradeable.

by ZenBaller on Jun 29, 2008 12:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

To be fair...

Lets take a look at Steve Nash’s stats when he started out…

His 3rd season: 31.41 mins per game, 7.9 PPG, 5.5 APG, 2.1 TO, 0.9 SPG, 36.3 FG%
His 4th season: 27.23 mins per game, 8.6 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.8 TO, 0.7 SPG, 47.7 FG%

Now I’m not saying Beno’s going to be Steve Nash, but when I see Beno play, I see a younger Steve Nash sometimes. It makes you wonder “what if” the potential is there. Nash didn’t peak out until his 5th season, around the same time Nowitzki started becoming really good. Maybe what the Kings have needed is that big go-to-guy that a PG can rely on and rack up assists with.

Now I’m not advocating a Beno MLE deal here. I’m afraid that the Kings will sign him to that kind of a deal, but at the same time I’m afraid of losing Beno, then potentially seeing him turn into the next Steve Nash, while we kick ourselves in the butt for letting him go.

by CloudyEyes on Jun 29, 2008 2:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

The most relevant information in this decision has nothing to do with his stats. Udrih’s stats indicate that he’s good enough to start on a bad team, and would be a quality backup on a good team. The real question in how much you want to invest in him, though, is what does his work ethic look like? Is he spending his off season at a camp, homing his jumper and watching tape, or is he partying in some chic European club every night? I don’t know, so I can’t speak to how the much the Kings ought to pay him.

by Deleran on Jun 29, 2008 2:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Beno

Five years at the MLE is way, way too long. I think even three years is too long. 2010 is the Kings big year for signing young, quality free agents. You give Beno a three year (or more) deal now, and he eats up more than $6 million of the cap that year. I won’t be upset if Beno is re-signed for three years, though I think a five year deal would be a mistake. I’d offer Beno a two year deal with a team option for the third and expect him to walk. I’d also be burning up the phones trying to acquire a serviceable point like Lowry, Crittendon, etc.

by Carl on Jun 29, 2008 3:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Team options are very good for this kind of a scenario. What we’re gambling on is Beno’s potential to be a better PG.

by CloudyEyes on Jun 29, 2008 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But if we sign him for five

We have a value-priced decent point guard as a trade piece to use if/when we draft/sign someone better.

If we don’t sign Beno someone else will. And then we’re left with the PGs the team that signed Beno chose Beno over.

Give Beno the contract stability he wants, give him a traning camp with the coach and players, which he didn’t have last year, and see what he can accomplish when he’s not learning a system and a team on the fly.

My guess is that he’s gonna be pretty good.

TickTickTickTickTickTick

by LeaguePassAddict on Jun 29, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we do sign Beno for five years...

I don’t think you should count on his trade value. If he shows nothing more over the next 2 years he won’t be a hot commodity, even with only 18-20mil left on his deal. Put another way, if he’s value-priced and a trade asset signed to a 5yr MLE, then give me a hypothetical deal we could pull off for him right now if we had him signed to the MLE. I just don’t see it… sure some teams want him, but that has a lot to do with the lack of other options and the fact that they may not have to give up other assets to add him.

If Beno improves, and I won’t pretend to know if that will happen or not, then a 5yr deal could turn out alright. If not, we have less cap space and another player that won’t be easy to trade (unless we’re moving him for a mediocre player/contract).

by cabz on Jun 29, 2008 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but that's the case any time you sign a player

If he turns out to be good, the MLE is a bargain. If he turns out not to be good, you are stuck w/ baggage. However, there are several teams that are going to offer him their full MLE now, so to answer your question, if he had three years left on an MLE today he would be tradeable.

"Being loquacious and being right aren't necessarily always the same."
GP, the man, the myth, the legend, puts the smackdown on Reggie

by SavageBeast on Jun 29, 2008 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you missed my point...

and perhaps that’s my fault.

First, the fact that teams will sign him to the full MLE (which I believe is the case), does not mean that they would trade anything of value for him if we already had him signed. Assume for a minute that you’re the Clippers GM – what are you going to give the Kings of value to get Beno and his 3yr MLE contract? My guess is that, at best, the Kings could hope for an expiring contract and something of little value thrown in (2nd round pick, unpromising big like The Landlord, etc.).

My point in all of that? Don’t count on being able to trade Beno for anything, or at least anything of value. Sure, he COULD get a lot better, but assuming he’ll have trade value (IMO) is the same as assuming he WILL get better (or you can find a really desperate team with a horrible GM, but the Knick have new management).

by cabz on Jun 29, 2008 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He'll always be

At least a solid back-up point guard. Maybe not a starter on a championship team (though he was a back-up on a championship team, dude has a ring) but solid. He will always have trade value, barring a devestating injury, which could happen to anyone at any time.

He doesn’t have to get better than he is now to have value. Watch and see what kind of offers he gets this week.

And again, if we lose him to another team, who are we going to get for the same price that’s better?

TickTickTickTickTickTick

by LeaguePassAddict on Jun 29, 2008 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has a ring...

but he was also shown the door shortly after and had his minutes cut by half each season, down to a whopping 2.5min/game during his final playoff run with SA. I think your implication is a bit of a stretch.

As far as his value, you’re going to have to be more specific. K9 has value, in the sense that we could most likely trade him for another horrible contract. Sure, he’ll likely have ‘value’, but do you really see the Kings getting better than another MLE-type guy signed to a similar deal if they attempt to trade him? I don’t see it, so I’m not in favor of signing him to a longer than ideal contract in the hope that we can trade him for something of value in 2-3 years. If you disagree, fine, but I’d still like to hear who you could see us trading him for right now, pretending for a moment that he’s signed to a 2-3 year MLE contract…

by cabz on Jun 29, 2008 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When I'm constipated I don't want to work with an amateur!

Oh sorry, thought you say crapologists

"Being loquacious and being right aren't necessarily always the same."
GP, the man, the myth, the legend, puts the smackdown on Reggie

by SavageBeast on Jun 29, 2008 3:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Three years, $12-15 million

would be my offer.

by LPKingsFan on Jun 29, 2008 7:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Three years MLE and one year team option

As you have already said, we can trade him in 2010 as an expiring contract and if he would be good (and I am rather expecting him to be much better, though not great, than what we have seen this year), we have a PG for four years.

by KingsFanfromCentralEurope on Jun 30, 2008 2:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

From what I remember

Ridiculous contracts offered by bad teams are always thrown out to guys early in the free agent period and wisely the guys jump at them (Jason Kapono comes to mind), while at the end of the summer there are still a number of quality players who waited too long, or listened to bad advice and have to settle for shorter “audition” contracts (Bonzi is the most obvious that comes to mind, Sactown’s finest also). At this point players are usually thinking “if I’m only getting offered this much I’ll sign for a short contract and try again next year/ two years from now”. Since the Kings are shooting for the magical year of 2010, it seems like the best move would be to wait until the end of the summer, see which veterans slip through the cracks and swoop up one of them on an autition contract.
Of course, you probably don’t get Beno under this plan, and possibly don’t get anyone you were hoping for. But at the same time you don’t get crushed with an awful mid-level long term contract. And who knows, maybe Beno isn’t worth as much as he thinks.

by Travis Mays Hayes on Jun 30, 2008 6:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

what i'm worried about

we don’t really seem to have many other PG options. off the top of my head i can’t think of any other PG free agents out there could possibly grab. the other option is to acquire a PG via trade, which would be fine…but what are our chances at that? i’m not sure how comfortable i am with frisco running the point either.

i worry that although i dont think udrih is worth the full MLE for a bunch of years, do we have too much of a choice?

by sactoreg on Jun 30, 2008 7:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Unknowns

My point earlier was this: [from Deleran] ‘Udrih’s stats indicate that he’s good enough to start on a bad team, and would be a quality backup on a good team.’

Thats a reasonable opinion, but still not a known fact at this point. 3/4 of a season real playing time is not enough to be sure about him. He’s proven the first part, but he may in fact, once he’s not trying to earn a new contract (putting up pts to get noticed), be even better as a distributer/passer.

Thats why I go back to my 3yr MLE + team option for fourth year.

eternal skeptical optimist

by lietothegirls on Jun 30, 2008 8:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

let's be stingy and lose big!

to set ourselves up for next year’s draft and the summer of ‘10!

Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.

by Holmdel on Jun 30, 2008 8:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

will he last?

Let’s not forget that not too long ago the main question was how injury prone Beno is/ will be. He was injured for some time last season with back problems and while he is still young it could be an issue. Signing him for three years would be alright, although I’m not sure how much more he can improve, but five years is unreasonable since we don’t want to be paying a 5 year MLE to a guy that can only play 40 games a season.

by cinderblock on Jun 30, 2008 2:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

if I may

watching the Knicks try to be good and not tear it down and rebuild it gets you nowhere IMO. I don’t know the full Kings roster but I would find a good stop gap non cap killing point guard for this year, develop the young players and look for a long term PG in next years draft. If Lebron leaves Cleveland, which I don’t think he will, look for him to wind up in NYC or with his buddy Jay-Z in NJ. I will agree that the list of availabl free agent point guards is very under whelming. Perhaps if Beno would take the MLE for 3 years it would bee the best option, and if a star PG is drafted next year he could be the back up.

by Beagle12 on Jun 30, 2008 8:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs