The Problems With Beno
It's understood that with a core assumed to be focused on the continued development of Kevin Martin and Spencer Hawes, the Sacramento Kings intend to build an elite offense. Of course, with Jason Thompson and Francisco Garcia (and Ron Artest, for now) aboard, defense won't be relegated to nothingness. But offense will be the priority, I'd imagine.
Beno Udrih is not a defensive stalwart. He's a bit strong, but not strong enough or long enough to make up for his lateral unquickness. I won't bolt him to Bibby status or assure Chris Paul will drop 30/15 every time the Hornets visit, but I'm certainly not going to pretend Beno can become a stopper or anything resembling a great defender.
So, Beno's offense: is it good enough to help the Kings put together an elite assault? The early returns would seem good: Sacramento had the #13 offense in the league last season, despite missing a month of Martin and a month of Artest. The offense got better under Beno, though some of that could also be attributed to more touches for Martin, better efficiency from Artest, and the elimination of Eric Musselman's clusterjunk.
On the individual level, Beno has proven to be an exceptional deep shooter, a strong penetrator, and capable of bringing the ball up the floor without wasting 10 seconds. There are two things keeping him from being a great offensive PG, though ... and I'm not confident either can be fixed.
He doesn't finish well.
Our view of Beno's talent has been clouded seriously by Mike Bibby's long-observed weaknesses. Near the end of his Sactown reign, Bibby stopped driving to the rim. It wasn't because he became a better shooter or because teams clogged the lane against him -- he just couldn't finish any more. He still drew fouls, but it's understandable that once you stop making lay-ups regularly, you're going to stop taking it inside. Bibby lost a touch of his never-spectacular athleticism, and lost at least half-a-step as he aged. Those factors conspired to make him an inefficient finisher, which lead to less penetration, which lead to fewer nifty assists and more jumpers, which lead to less offensive chemistry and less individual consistency. And that's all folks -- Bibby's no longer an elite PG.
Beno wasn't a good finisher last season, and has been below-average on his career. Using NBA.com's excellent Hot Spots data, I broke the field goal percentages on layups or 'close' shots for a random collection of starting point guards. I didn't go after everyone, but tried to include some similarly styled (shoot-first) PGs.
Udrih -- 50.2%
T. Parker -- 59.8%
A. Miller -- 58.9%
Nash -- 56.7%
Telfair -- 45.1%
B. Davis -- 54.9%
Alston -- 46.5%
Calderon -- 66.3%
Ford -- 51.3%
Billups -- 56.6%
Arroyo -- 53.2%
Nelson -- 58.8%
Harris -- 55.8%
Kidd -- 44.4%
Rondo -- 54.3%
It's hardly scientific, but ... most of the great offensive PGs on that have high inside FG%s, yeah? Alston's better than he looks -- he makes a ton of threes. Telfair's simply awful. Kidd's overrated, but passes better than everyone but Nash (at a cost -- both those guys make a ton of turnovers).
What this says to me, though: great offensive PGs can finish at the hoop. Beno's not so hot in this category. He's better than Bibby has been his past two seasons (48.8% in 2006-07, 46.8% in 2007-08), but closer to that pole than fellows like Billups, Nash and Calderon.
Thanks to Beno's exceptional three-point shooting and good mid-range game, this isn't a pox on his game. But at the very least, the iffy finishing hurts the other factor killing his chance at being a great offensive weapon ...
He does not regularly help his teammates get easy shots.
The assist is a tricky matron, and I'm not going to get into all of that noise here. A quick summary of my thinking on the subject: assists are overrated, but probably important to some degree, but painfully misunderstood. That Tony Parker is not considered one of the elite point guards in this league because of his low assist totals is a great sham. There is historically no connection between offensive efficiency and assist percentages, nor between shooting percentages and assist percentages. On the whole, according teams and seasons, assists add nothing to a team's offense.
But certain players most certainly depend on good passes to get good opportunities to score. I'd even say all players would be helped by a good pass. This roster has a few of those guys -- Martin's a stunning isolation threat, but give him some screens, some kick-outs, some lobs and he becomes one of the best offensive weapons in the league. Spencer Hawes needs help getting loose inside -- he's not strong enough to establish deep position against most post defenders, so his dunks are going to need to come off picks-and-rolls and transition opportunities. (Ditto Shelden Williams and, I suspect, Jason Thompson.) Francisco Garcia is much, much better as a spot-up shooter than an off-the-dribble threat. I imagine Quincy Douby would be similar if he ever got any minutes.
How much of that is Beno offering? I'm trying to remember a single Beno-to-Martin alley-oop; I can clearly recall two deliveries from Anthony Freaking Johnson in one half. That glorious "Shock and Hawes" highlight against the Lakers -- Beno drove and dished back to a bulldozin' Hawes for the transition jam. That was way too rare ... way too rare.
I hardly think it's a coincidence the Kings became the worst 'assists' team in the league when Beno took over. He doesn't have the tunnel vision of the true chuckin' PGs, but passing is clearly the last resort when he drives the lane. That's good sometimes, as the Sacramento frontcourt of 2007-08 either couldn't hang onto a ball (Mikki Moore) or finish with a jam (Brad Miller) -- but with Hawes and (hopefully) Thompson, and Garcia and Martin on the wings, the pass off the drive will be the preferred play ... especially with Udrih's stated problems finishing in the lane.
Is the low assist performance of '07-08 a product of Beno's intuition about his teammates? Highly unlikely, considering his record in San Antonio. This can improve marginally, but don't bet on Beno's rebirth as the next Calderon.
(Turnovers are also a problem, but it's a lesser concern as his numbers there aren't atrocious and it's something that usually gets better with age and experience.)
To sum up: I'm not mad at Beno at the full mid-level for five years. I just happen to think -- with the above arguments leading the way -- that he's not going to be good enough to get you where you need to be offensively in order to balance your obvious defensive warts. He's almost certainly the best option next season, and almost certainly for 2009-10 as well. Beyond that, you're risking being stuck with a good point guard when you need to a great one (on either end).
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Thanks for writing this because I was going to write something, and now I'm not going to bother as you summed up it all
I think the bottom line monetarily is that for the next 2 seasons it would make sense if Hawes and Thompson were fully integrated members of the rotation and their passing/low post/shooting skills could be counted on for a combined 65-70 minutes a night. But that is several years off for at least Hawes, and I highly doubt Thompson isn’t in that category as well. So what you’re looking at a potentially good pairing with Beno, if you had what Bibby had when he came to the Kings, which was A) the best passing Big in 20 years, and B) a spectacularly overrated superstar, but a vastly under-rated skilled passing big in Webber. In other words what you have got is a bunch of hunch’s, and that’s connected to the success to the franchise. I’m just not sold that you have a winning formula with Beno. That being said, I’m going to end up asking some questions.
- Is Beno’s finishing strong around the hoop going to get worse over the next 5 years? Most Likely, yes.
- Is Hawes and Thompson, barring injury which is at least a major but with Shawes, going to develop like the organization believes it can?
- Do Hawes and Thompson’s passing skills, and complementary skills around the basket, worth re-signing Beno to the 5 year deal?
- If Beno’s outside shooting and mid range game stay consistent, is that really the most important thing overall?
- What about the “SF” spot, and where it fits into what Beno does?
I don’t really think Beno is worth the 5 years, but I don’t really think the Kings have a better option. I don’t really think Beno is worth gambling the development of 2 young players to consistently prove they are worth bringing in a player like Beno long-term. I really don’t see where this helps the team long term, other than it keeps the team consistently near 500, which is maybe the short term goal. That’s really what bothers me. Beno’s signing seems to be more about winning in the short term, a low priority for me as a fan, than it is the franchise which seems to place a very high priority on it.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Jul 1, 2008 12:45 PM PDT 0 recs
Hmmmm
Interesting analysis TZ. I think the assist thing worries me more (or more accurately, the assist-to-turnover ratio).
Devil’s Advocate though – First, I’d assume both of these categories are seriously affected by the quality and type of offense around the player. And second, while you wouldn’t say Beno’s stats are of the “small sample size” variety, I’d venture we will see some improvement as he gets used to playing significant minutes as a starter, rather than a low-minute reserve.
I’m not sure he merits a 5-year on the MLE, but I’d rather see Petrie give that to guys with some upside (like Salmons) than older players with very little tread on the tires.
Kevin Pritchard stole my daughter's lunch money.
by otis29 on Jul 1, 2008 12:48 PM PDT 0 recs
I think the point was that
the idea of the MLE isn’t as justified unless you’re doing it on a younger player like Salmons or Beno, as opposed to older players like Reef or Moore.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 3:31 PM PDT
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Yeah, that’s what I though after reading it a 2nd time, at first it seemed like he was lumping Beno in with Reef and Moore
by Viliphied on
Jul 1, 2008 4:13 PM PDT
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Another point is that this is eerily similar to what happened with Brian Grant
And eventually Grant walking saved the franchise alot of money and cap room. So my question is, does the franchise trying to do right by Beno by paying him lip-service, if their true intention is to let him walk, intelligent when the short term has the long term price to consider?
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Jul 1, 2008 12:49 PM PDT 0 recs
My Initial Thoughts Too
I have to admit, I first thought of the Brian Grant situation as well as the Bonzi Wells situation with the offer to Beno. If Petrie offers what is perceived as a nice deal while suspecting that someone else is going to offer more (like the Clips, in this circumstance) or the player is going to move on; when the free agent walks, Petrie looks good from a player standpoint because the Kings made a reasonable offer (maybe more than reasonable in Bonzi’s case). It’s kinda a win-win because the player gets the higher salary they wanted and the Kings aren’t given the hardball reputation. Not that GP cares what players think of him as a negotiator, but if the whole point of creating a city where free agents will want to play in the future, then he maintains the good standing as someone who does what’s best for the franchise without completely leaving the players hanging. I mean, I’d like to think that’s part of the reason Corliss came back for his 2nd tour with the Kings too.
by #12Pick...who? on
Jul 1, 2008 1:08 PM PDT
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I'm not going to write this 500 times like I did with the TJ Ford/Jermaine O'Neal deal
But the likelihood of Beno getting more than the 5 years at the MLE is just practically un-likely. The only teams with Cap Space are: The Clippers (who would have to renounce Elton Brand), The Warriors (who would have to announce Baron Davis), The Memphis Grizzlies (who already have a glut of PG’s), and the Philadelphia Seventy-Sixers (who have Andre Miller and supposedly covet Elton Brand according to one report I read many months ago). In otherwords Beno’s maximum market is 5 years MLE, regardless of what his agent says, and if the Kings play hardball what they really do is offer less years. Everyone else can offer the MLE too.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 1:11 PM PDT
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Right
But by offering the full MLE Petrie knocked all of those other MLE bound teams out of the bidding. I’m not sold on the five year deal either, but Petrie must have felt that year 4 & 5 was better than Chris Duhon or Carlos Arroyo for 3 years. We’ll see.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on
Jul 1, 2008 1:26 PM PDT
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Maybe he thinks trading Beno is possible like it was to deal TJ Ford
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 1:27 PM PDT
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Also, this was covered in the Beno FanShot by Carl
But Beno can’t be traded in a sign & trade because he is a non-bird Free Agent.
The earliest you could trade Beno is December 15th assuming you sign him before September 15th.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 1:12 PM PDT
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great write up
I’m really on the fence with what we should do with Beno. In one hand i know he was one of the silver linings from last season but on the other hand is he going to be habitually injured and is he going to improve our assist to turnover ratio which was absolutely horrible.
I would like to say that we get a full training camp with him and a full healthy squad that those problems would work themselves out. At this point though I’m just not sure what other choices we have.
by kingsTV on Jul 1, 2008 12:56 PM PDT 0 recs
Auditioning for GM again?
Despite all the arguments in the other threads, I think Beno is a great fit for the next two years. In a year where there are better point guards in the free agent market, Beno is a three year deal kind of player. Because there are practically no good point guards in the market this season, he’s turned into a five year deal kind of player.
I think it’s a 50/50 kind of deal. Beno could turn into an 18 point, 6 assist point guard, or he could become a guy who averages 13 and 5 while being hurt 30 games every year. It’s the latter and then being stuck with yet another long-term, untradeable contract that worries me.
by Carl on Jul 1, 2008 12:57 PM PDT 0 recs
he's staying!
by David24 on Jul 1, 2008 1:11 PM PDT 1 recs
Nice scoop
So much for this exercise in futility!
"Matt Lauer, up on NBC. You look like a girl, don't talk to me" -Ron Artest
by Exhibit G on
Jul 1, 2008 1:13 PM PDT
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Wow
Done deal, it seems. I’m not going to get too worked up about it one way or the other…but I will say that it’s nice to have the PG problem solved (at least for now). And if Singletary turns out to be a diamond in the rough, so much the better.
Kevin Pritchard stole my daughter's lunch money.
by otis29 on
Jul 1, 2008 1:13 PM PDT
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My only hope is that Beno is tradeable 2 years from now
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 1:16 PM PDT
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I hope TZ's analysis is wrong
And it was somewhat subject to the difficult changing circumstances of a year ago.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 1:13 PM PDT
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That is another argument against Artest though since we're around this argument
He isn’t creating other easier shots for players in a comfort zone with his presence on the court. That’s another reason I’ve angled so much to see him traded.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 1:39 PM PDT
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My problem with Beno
Thanks for bringing up to the topic. I often count on you, section, pookey, etc. to do the necessary research that I am too lazy to do. You bring up some good points, but honestly these are not the things that bother me.
What bothers me is that I fail to see the problem with extending Beno. In my mind, it seems like a good move. But let’s remember rule number 1: I am an idiot. I think we would all agree that the Spurs are a pretty solid organization when it comes to assessing talent. Particularly international players. And yet they did not feel the need to keep Beno. The let him walk, and Beno saw very little interest from the rest of the league. He gets signed by Sacto as a stopgap, and performs reasonably well, and above expectations. Suddenly he’s demanding a 5-year, $32 million deal? I think I missed a step in this process.
"Matt Lauer, up on NBC. You look like a girl, don't talk to me" -Ron Artest
by Exhibit G on Jul 1, 2008 1:12 PM PDT 0 recs
Apparently Beno has agreed to the terms
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 1:15 PM PDT
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I take some issue with your second point
I believe that of all the positions, PG is the one that is most affected by feel and familiarity with your teammates. Udrih was a backup for part of the season and injured during the another; if I remember correctly, parts of the season he did start coincided with the injuries of Martin and Artest, two key cogs to the Kings’ offensive machine. To top things off, the entire Kings roster was playing under a new coach.
Basically, I don’t think Udrih had enough opportunity to mesh with his team. It takes a while to learn your teammates tendencies – good point guards will know where their guys like to take shots, or how to help bring their teammates out of a shooting slump, or where his teammates will be with X seconds left in the clock after a certain play, etc. From what I have seen of Beno’s play, he seemed like a pretty good PG who would get better the longer he was with his team.
I will continue to play devil’s advocate and look at how Beno does not finish well. If you look at some of the PGs listed that have high percentages at the rim – Tony Parker, Steve Nash, Jose Calderon, Jameer Nelson, Chauncey Billups – they all have one thing in common: each plays with a highly skilled or very athletic big man (Tim Duncan, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard, Rasheed Wallace)! Something tells me things are much easier on your guards if you have a big helping to set the table. If Hawes improves, or Thompson comes in and is able to provide an injection of athleticism, it might help Beno at the rim.
This is not to say that this season will be the setting for a huge breakout. I doubt Beno will suddenly become an amazing floor general, or stay healthy for 82 games; in fact he may regress entirely and leave me looking like an idiot :| ...However, in terms of a guy that will run the team, I won’t be too angry if he stays.
by sactoreg on Jul 1, 2008 1:16 PM PDT 1 recs
well crap, i guess he's staying...so much for the post :|
by sactoreg on
Jul 1, 2008 1:17 PM PDT
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Who said it doesn't have merit?
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 1:26 PM PDT
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I think your point about having an inside presence does change the nature of the attempts at the rim
has excellent merit myself.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 1:28 PM PDT
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That is another argument against Artest though since we're around this argument
He isn’t creating other easier shots for players in a comfort zone with his presence on the court. That’s another reason I’ve angled so much to see him traded.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 1:40 PM PDT
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Agree
If you have a nice shooter to kick it out to or a big who will make you pay if you leave him, the help defense will not come, thus allow the PG to make more layups and finish around the hoop. Great point.
by eduardo_m7 on
Jul 1, 2008 4:55 PM PDT
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It wasn't me who made the point
It was actually Sactoreg’s above.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 5:01 PM PDT
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Well there you go
I think it’s a mistake, but I’m not pissed about it and feel like there’s a decent chance I’ll be proven wrong. I hope Beno turns into that 18 point, 6 assist guy.
by Carl on Jul 1, 2008 1:17 PM PDT 0 recs
One more thing
If Artest goes (oh please, oh please…), Beno is going to have the ball in his hands more, which can only be a good thing in finding out what he can do.
by Carl on
Jul 1, 2008 1:19 PM PDT
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Clippers
Well this has to mean the clippers renounce maggette and try for a Baron Davis/Elton Brand combo, right? Can’t really run a playoff team with brevin knight right. Unrelated to the kings, I know.
by Kingsfan banished to AZ on Jul 1, 2008 1:33 PM PDT 0 recs
It's related in the sense that the Kings and Clippers are in the same division
And that the Kings have to keep what other teams are doing in mind when they make their own deals. I’m not sure it comes into play to a huge extent, but it does require, or merit, some level of consideration I would gather.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 1, 2008 1:41 PM PDT
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Woo hoo
I like Beno. I think the Kings got a good deal at $32 mil for 5 years. This is a good contract and may turn out to be one of the better starting PG deals around the league. Now all the Kings need to do is lose some dead wood and we’ll be set for a fun season. I agree with Sactoreg. Beno needs a little more time with this team to develope chemistry and that feel for what his team mates like to do.
by KingsFan on Jul 1, 2008 3:57 PM PDT 0 recs
Last night, looking at a future without Beno
was not a happy event for me. There are so few quality pg’s available right now that I think the price we paid for Beno is reasonable considering the market. Can Cisco run the point? Kinda. Best for the team and him? No. Continuity s important and Beno’s agreement on terms with the Kings allows Martin and the young fellas to continue to grow without the distraction of more drama at the point.
I was thrilled when we signed Beno last season. He looked so much better than Bibby and Orien (sp) Greene and whoever we were bringing in for a look from the summer league and overall I think he delivered. Is he a perfect fit or our pg of the future? Probably not but he will do until someone better comes along.
by Bluejohn on Jul 1, 2008 5:45 PM PDT 0 recs
Davis...
....if he opted out Monday night and with the haste that the Clips signed him, then were they ever really considering Beno?
And if so, who else was in contention? Obviously the Warriors might enter that distinction, but it seems they had a player better than Beno in Ellis to take over. Did Petrie maybe over-project the want for Beno and just immediately offer the full five year MLE?
I’m not against the signing, but I question the duration.
by Red Reign on Jul 2, 2008 9:21 AM PDT 0 recs
My Guess
I think that GP offered what he felt was a fair deal and let the chips fall where they may. He had probably already decided what he was going to do when he drafted JT, so all that was left was waiting to see if Beno accepted it or not and the moving on from there (see: Wells, Bonzi).
As scripted as the Davis deal seems, there’s always the chance that LAC didn’t know anything ahead of time, saw the opportunity to get him and keep Brand, and jumped.
by smgmatt on
Jul 2, 2008 9:44 AM PDT
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I know...
....as fans is that all we do is speculate and really have no idea what is happening. That being said, it is hard to believe that the Clip-Show had no idea what Baron was going to do and how they were going to proceed. Especially considering the fact that his opt-out was a total shock to the majority for the most part. Then, throw in the quotes from Petrie and how he considers 2010 as the true spot for the final rebuild and its hard for me to see how Petrie was not totally in the dark on all of this stuff.
by Red Reign on
Jul 2, 2008 9:58 AM PDT
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To smg & Red
If you want quality informed analysis, head to Clips Nation and Clippers Blog. Clippers Steve and Kevin Arnowitz are probably the 2 most knowledgable non Clipper employees on the planet.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 2, 2008 10:20 AM PDT
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Maggette opting out
I think had more to do with Baron’s decision than anything. Baron’s agent undoubtely knows that the only way the Clippers can get Baron was if they created enough space sans Brand to get him. Now they can with Maggette and Livingston not on the cap.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 2, 2008 10:16 AM PDT
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That explains...
...the apparent last-minuteness of his opt-out.
by smgmatt on
Jul 2, 2008 1:07 PM PDT
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Actually Corey had made the decision weeks before
If you believe Clipper Steve and his amigos at Clips Nation. I’m inclined to believe that actually. Corey Maggette did have his best season as a pro, and there will be strong interest for him. Just not a team that can pay him more than the Mid-Level unfortunately for him.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 2, 2008 1:21 PM PDT
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Yeah
Being “renounced” really hurt his chances at getting paid.
He was a S&T candidate before that, now he’s staring down the barrel of the MLE. Time to look at contenders I guess!
by smgmatt on
Jul 2, 2008 1:42 PM PDT
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I think everyone should go to Clips Nation to read all the stuff
But to recap CS, believes that David Falk, Brand’s Agent, orchestrated the deal for Baron to opt out and for Brand to take less money. I suggest you read the last couple posts on Clips Nation for the full story.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Jul 2, 2008 1:23 PM PDT
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