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Price Check on 2010 Superstars

As we lustily await July 1, 2010, it's worth finding out just how much the Kings (or any team, really) will need to have free under the salary cap in order to sign a seventh-year player to a maximum contract. (I find four such worthy players: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire. Stoudemire will be an eight-year veteran, but that doesn't change the numbers.)

Players with 7-9 years of NBA experience are entitled a max contract of up to 30% of the salary cap. The salary cap this season is $58.3 million. It was $55.6 million last year, and $53 million in 2006-07. Those are successive increases of 4.7% and 5.4%. Let us assume the cap raises an average of 6% each of the next two season. That would place the 2010-11 salary cap at roughly $65.5 million. Thirty percent of $65.5 million is $19.6 million.

LBJ, Wade, Bosh and Stoudemire should be able to demand contracts with a starting salary of $19.6 million. I see the incumbent team acceding to the request in each case, with Stoudemire as the weakest. (It's hard to gauge Phoenix. Amare will be a 27-year-old microfracture survivor at that point.) Assuming everyone stays home does no good for us, so let's see if Sacramento is on track to have $19.6 million or more in cap space in 2010.

Sacramento has two players locked up for 2010-2011: Kevin Martin and Beno Udrih. John Salmons has a $5.8 million player option, which I assume he'll take. That's $23.4 million.

Spencer Hawes will be in the final year of his rookie contract, making about $3 million. Jason Thompson will also be on his rookie deal, making $2.2 million. Donté Greene is due $1.2 million. We're up to $29.8 million, with six players.

Francisco Garcia will get his contract within the next couple weeks, or next summer. Let's assume his deal sets him up with a $6 million salary in 2010-11 (a bit high). We're up to $35.8 million with seven players.

We have two 2009 first-round picks, and one 2010 pick (as of now). Let's assume, for realism's sake, the 2009 picks fall in the same general area as Thompson and Greene did this year. That's about $3.4 million total. For the 2010 pick, let's assume it lands around the Thompson zone (a bit high, hopefully): another $2 million. We're up to $41.2 million for 10 players, a plausible roster assuming Geoff Petrie doesn't add a weird veteran next summer. Let's also assume Quincy Douby and Shelden Williams -- both restricted free agents in 2010 -- don't get early extensions next summer.

With an estimated cap of $65.5 million and an estimated payroll of $41.2 million, the Kings are left with ... $24.3 million to pursue free agents. That's plenty of space to allow for a bit larger deal for Garcia, an extra pick, a cheap veteran on a multi-year deal, a small contract for someone like Bobby Brown, a trade of one of the 2010 expiring contracts (Brad Miller, Kenny Thomas, Shareef Abdur-Rahim) which brings back a nominal salaried youngster.

Again, it's unlikely any of the four superstars will change hands in 2010. But if any do, the Kings will be in position to pay them as much as anyone else could. The team will also have one of the best two-guards in the league in his prime, a young frontcourt, maybe a new arena, and the best fans in the nation. Excuse me while I dream.

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Plenty to be excited about...

… but I’m pretty sure LeBron’s agent, Nike, McDonalds, Coke, and every other company working for the yough phenom would much rather have him play for a big market franchise (AKA New York, New Jersey, LA, Chicago, etc.) to better publisize his already intense image.

Ziller makes a fine point though,

The team will also have one of the best two-guards in the league in his prime, a young frontcourt, maybe a new arena, and the best fans in the nation.

But lets not forget that this is two years from now. Do you remember what things were like two years ago? It was the heart of the Mussleman era and we were running our offense through The Big Nasty in his 12th and final year in the NBA. All I’m saying is that NBA teams can change pretty quickly from season to season. (Just ask the Lakers, Celtics, Suns, and Mavericks)

This was a great post to see if the Kings are in position to aquire these All Star players as of today, but please do not spend more than ten minutes inquiring about it. Instead look forward to this season and hope that Beno was as great of signing as we hope, pray that Kevin finally makes the All-Star team, wish that Donte and Jason Thompson have a fantastic rookie season, that Spencer looks as good as he did from the end of last year, and congradulate Brad Miller on seeing Pinapple Express seven times this summer while only actually remembering viewing the film three times. Here’s to the future!

by the3rdK-Mart on Aug 27, 2008 2:51 PM PDT   0 recs

Don't spend it before you make it

Recently, Mark Cuban pointed out the the salary cap wasn’t fair to small market teams. Without sky boxes, corporate sponsership, and celebs willing to pay $2k for front row seats, the smaller markets need to fill every seat to make enough money to pay the cap. So if the Kings continue to lose both games and attendance, don’t be surprised if the Maloofs don’t cut off GP’s money supply. Casino owners seldom gamble. That’s why they’re owners, they know the odds are with the house.

As far as a new stadium goes, with northern cal being one of the hardest hit real estate areas in the country and the economy in the dumps, it may be hard to find a developer willing to build a $500M stadium with profits from real estate built on the Cal Expo site. I just hope that the Maloofs are patient and can wait until the economy turns.

In the mean time, Theus needs to win. The Kings need to fill the stadium again and bring back the communities excitement over the team.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Aug 27, 2008 3:54 PM PDT   0 recs

You got a little crazy at the end...

But the numbers you throw around in the guts of your post make sense, the question will be whether or not any of these guys or any other potential plums are going to want to play here.

There’s no way an arena will be built, given that the Maloofs refuse to pony up a thing, and still want all of the ancillary revenue. The thing at CalExpo is the best hope, even though everyone knows it should be built in the railyard. It’s hard to imagine given the projected state of the economy over the next 3-5 years that we can get something funded.

But the team should stay, and there is a tremendous amount of upside with the players we have.

So clearly, I’M ALL OVER THE PLACE.

Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.

by andy sims on Aug 27, 2008 4:37 PM PDT   0 recs

Very nice and simple put analysis. I finally have a clear picture about our salaries and 2010.

Ideal Scenario: Cisco gets a 7 mil contract and averages 26-5-4-2. He’s the new NBA superstar and along with Martin they act as magnets and Bosh decides to join us for for 10 mil per year just for the love of the game. By then we have 7 mil left but we don’t use it for a pure C because Hawes is already averaging 18-11-2. We are winining the NBA championship unbeaten and we decide to donate the 7 mils left to Kenny Thomas for old time’s sake.

by ZenBaller on Aug 27, 2008 6:20 PM PDT   1 recs

Please be Chris Bosh. Please be Chris Bosh. Please be Chris Bosh.

More of this brand of hilariosu insight can be found at vegaskings.blogspot.com and now reclaimingthetitle.blogspot.com

by Muff209 on Aug 27, 2008 6:20 PM PDT   0 recs

The big question mark in this...

is whether or not we move any of our vets for other pieces, or simply let them expire and get nothing in return. Brad certainly has some value, and will likely be even more attractive to teams as the year progresses (and his contract shortens). Even if we were able to cut down our salary to be in contention for any of those players, mathematically, we still don’t compete in terms of the real economic package they could get elsewhere. From a team like Miami, they wouldn’t be paying the same taxes they pay here, and from larger markets, they would almost certainly see more endorsements (or larger payouts for their existing relationships).

I think it’s much more likely that we’ll be a player in 2009 (or even 2011) – just not enough young players available in 2010 and there will be far too much competition.

by cabz on Aug 27, 2008 9:07 PM PDT   0 recs

Sponsers

have you forgotten the automall and goodfeet?

by passionforPERPS on Aug 27, 2008 10:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I like Sacramento

But if you’re a 25 or 26 year old guy, you’re not picking our fine city over South Beach.

by Carl on Aug 29, 2008 11:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yup.

At least we have ownership that has shown they will spend big on players they believe can compete for a title, but in almost every other way there are much more attractive destinations for superstar free agents.

by cabz on Aug 29, 2008 4:59 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

What's Miller worth?

If you trade Miller what will you get in return?? Some once promising player at the end of his rookie contract and a expiring that can’t break into our rotation. (ie the Bibby trade)
And, we already have 15 under contract and 2 1st rounders next year. And, only 2 expiring contracts assuming SAR retires. So, where are you going to put the expirings needed to match Miller’s $12M contract. Which of are players would you dump to make room for the expirings that won’t break into the rotation and won’t be around but for 1 yr

Plus where are you going to get another center to back up Hawes?

We could always try to improve on the center position by trading for another younger center but then your going to have to add one of young guns and maybe a draft choice. So who do we go for? And, who do we give up? Cisco, Greene’, JT It’s a tough decision.

The simplest solution is let Miller become a free agent alone with K9. Their total salary is over $20M. The projected max FA offer is 30% of the salary cap or around $19.5M. Based on our needs in twenty 10 we can make a max offer to the FA of our choice. NO need to pick up any unwanted contract or give away any prospects.

Between now and then we can hopefully trade for a prospect at the 5 using Moore % Doubly & BJax’s expiring. And we still have Miller around for one more year to mentor the new guy and Hawes. That way we can concentrate of a PG with our 2 1st rounders.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Aug 27, 2008 10:14 PM PDT   0 recs

I believe

that the Kings hold player options next year on Brown, Douby and Williams (as well as Moore with a small buyout). Roster spots won’t be an issue.

If Brad follows up last year with another solid year, he would have some value. If he reverts back to two years ago, not so much.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Aug 27, 2008 10:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Bee says

Brown has a player option for next season, which he will most certainly exercise. You’re right that Douby and Williams both have team options. I think Shelden will either be traded or not picked up and Douby is about 50/50 on being picked up for next season.

by Carl on Aug 29, 2008 11:24 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Something to consider regarding

the player options. We need to exercise our player options on Douby/Williams before the start of this season(from lmcoon salary cap faq):

Rookie “scale” contracts for first round draft picks contain team options for the third and fourth seasons (team options for the third season exist only for players drafted in 2005 or later), which must be exercised by October 31 of the prior season No other options are permitted in rookie scale contracts.

The way I read it, we need to make a decision on extending Williams and/or Douby before this season. Just some additional info.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Aug 29, 2008 3:27 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree with your second statement

On the first part: If your saying don’t exercise our options on Brown Douby and Williams then your giving away 3 players with no return just to make room for expiring contracts that your dumping after 1 year. And, your still not going to get a great player in exchange for Miller who will be 33.

If your talking of trading Miller along with Williams and/or Moore your talking between $17M & $24M in contracts. Who are you going to get with salaries to match that. It better be 2 or more bigs because your only left with Hawes & JT.

On a trade your not going to get a star, but let Miller & Thomas’ contracts expire and you have $20M in cap space to go after a Super Star.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Aug 27, 2008 11:11 PM PDT   0 recs

Trading Brad

Three options -

1) Trade him to a team with some cap space (always a small list). That way you’re not taking back the same salaries.

2) Trade him for expiring “meat” that comes packaged with a young player or a draft pick.

3) Trade him to a team with a trade exception (always a small list). Thta way you’re not taking back the same salaries.

There is a big difference between the Miller and Bibby situations. Bibby was a salary dump, pure and simple. Imagine the Kings today if Bibby were still on the roster. No Beno, and Brad would probably have been salary dumped, as there is no way the Maloof’s pay luxury tax on this group. If a team (take Orlando, for example) determines that Brad is the right yin to their current yang (Dwight Howard, for example), then perhaps a deal can be brokered (Battie/Johnson/Redick/draft pick for Miller, for example). As far as the extra bodies are concerned, players can always be waived to clear roster space or be traded for cash or future picks, whatever.

I’m in total agreement that Miller is not a snap easy move, and I also think that he is vital to the team this year, a Hawes and Thompson need to earn and grow into their minutes. One other thing to remember with Brad – he’s always been willing to fill a role. If the Kings can’t get anything for him after this year, they could still elevate Hawes and bring Miller off the bench. He has the temeperment for that.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Aug 28, 2008 8:02 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I was actually thinking of making a fanpost about this

  A while back I also crunched numbers and did some assumptions as to where our current contracts will be going. I think that extra 5 mil of cap (after signing a LBJ) shouldn’t be used on free agents or what have you.

  We have the possibility of drafting our future franchise (or 6th man) PG in the next draft (deep PG draft in 2009). The added PG, plus a superstar along with the team we currently have would make a playoff contender.

  However, I believe it’s in the best interest for the Kings not to allow their nucleus of talent to walk out. After signing a superstar, we’re eventually going to need to re-sign Thompson, GreenĂ©, Hawes, and the 2009 picks, along with future picks. I just don’t want the Kings pulling another Gerald Wallace in 4 years.

  Unless we have the possibility for trading our picks, plus some cap for Rubio in next year’s draft, I’d say save it for the future. Every penny counts.

by CloudyEyes on Aug 28, 2008 3:29 AM PDT   0 recs

The scary part

If those four stay put (or simply don’t come to Sacramento for any reason), then you have to worry about the Kings overpaying a non-max player to max money.

I still think the better option for the Kings is to make a trade in 2009 with another team dreaming of signing a big 2010 FA using the Expiring Contracts currently on the roster.

It will definitely be one of the more interesting FA summers to watch, though.

by smgmatt on Aug 28, 2008 8:25 AM PDT   0 recs

Yeah that's another likely possibility

I don’t like Stoudemire, and don’t think Bosh belongs in that class. I’m not convinced Wade’s body will hold up to keep him there, and I have no reason to believe that LeBron will spurn Cleveland to come to Sacramento. I don’t really give a damn about free agency (something I’m sure in the minority but I don’t care about that) and I think building through Free-Agency is a dumb way to build overall especially if you aren’t building around young players in the interim to make the team worthwhile.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Aug 30, 2008 3:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

To elaborate a bit too

The only player I would be willing to trade 3 or 4 players off this team for a stud is if Dwight Howard came in return. I wouldn’t even consider LeBron (too beat up in my opinion) or Wade or KB8. So, yeah, I’m in the majority of one with my opinions. And so be it.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Aug 30, 2008 3:53 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Um...

By KB8 did you mean KB24, aka Black Mamba?

Just curious.

by smgmatt on Sep 2, 2008 8:27 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yuh

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Sep 4, 2008 3:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You're excused for your dream

But to be honest I think holding onto the money and making nominal improvement is the likely route this team will have to take to make any serious improvement.

Like for instance using the cap space in 2010, and holding onto it, and taking on a bad contract for the 2011 draft in exchange for also taking on a top 3 pick or something like that.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Aug 30, 2008 3:49 PM PDT   0 recs

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