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Faux Ron-manticism

There are a few things right about Scott Howard-Cooper's contrarian effort on the Ron Artest trade, in which Scoop basically tells the ways the Kings will be worse next season. But there's also plenty wrong.

DEFENSE

If Ron Artest was the best defender on the 2007-08 Kings, John Salmons and Francisco Garcia were #2 and 3. Guess who is taking Ron's place in the rotation? John Salmons. And who will take John's spot? Francisco Garcia. So really, the defensive impact of losing Ron is the marginal difference between Ron and John and between John and 'Cisco. That's not nearly as serious as "Kings loses former DPOY."

POST PRESENCE

In the new NBA, guards and bigs who can create from 17-feet are the stars. How many real, potent  post presences are left? Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, Elton Brand, Yao Ming? Even Yao has been taken away from the basket to open up lanes for Tracy McGrady, and Brand and Duncan have murderous 15-footers. Just because every NBA team of the '80s and '90s had a true post presence doesn't mean it's necessary today.

The key on offense is to have players who score efficiently and get easier shots for their teammates. Artest had a True Shooting percentage of 53.5%. Among rotation players, only Quincy Douby and 15-game Mike Bibby were worse. Being the mythical "post presence" didn't help Artest get more efficient scoring opportunities, did it?

Post players also kick out to the open shooter off the double team. Artest's assist numbers are only very slightly better than those for Salmons. Brad Miller had more assists per minute than Artest, as did all three point guards who started games.

Also, from Howard-Cooper:

After the trade is official, defenses will be able to fan out even more on the perimeter and not have to be concerned with getting hurt inside. Bad news for Kevin Martin.

Scott Howard-Cooper, I'd like you to meet Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson. Spencer, Jason, this is Scott.

I'm not saying either youngster will be a dominant inside presence now or ever. But the Kings are addressing the need for size. They have spent subsequent lottery picks on a center and a power forward. This is a young team. It is building for the future. I imagine part of that plan is getting these guys the ball on the block every once in a while. Just a hunch.

REBOUNDING

There's no reason for NBA writers to still get rebounding wrong. SH-C writes:

The Kings finished 26th in rebounding percentage. Brad Miller led the team, Mikki Moore was second, Artest was third at 5.8, a solid contribution for a small forward.

Scoop uses rebounding percentage, hurray! Good.

... but then he uses that insightful statistic "rebounds per game" to judge the players.

Guess what? We can do "rebounding percentages" for players, too! And Ron Artest was not the third best rebounder on the team.

The list, best to worst:

Shelden Williams, Brad Miller, Spencer Hawes, Mikki Moore, Ron Artest, John Salmons, Francisco Garcia, Kevin Martin, Beno Udrih, Quincy Douby. This list excludes Justin Williams, Kenny Thomas, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and Dahntay Jones, all of whom would also finish above Artest.

Scoop is also ignoring positions and positional expectations.

In January, I put together a fairly thorough study on Ron's impact on the Kings. A part of that looked at defensive rebounding, which is really the weakness here. Artest is worse than the average small forward at rebounding (as of those statistics -- I don't recall Ron getting better as the season moved along). Salmons was also worse.

Donte' Greene, as a small forward, projects to be an excellent rebounder -- much better than Artest. It probably deserves a mention in a passage about how Artest's rebounding will be missed, considering the Kings, you know, traded Artest for Greene.


I don't doubt the Kings could be worse this season because of losing Artest. But the impact really isn't that heavy. The offense should get better. The defense could get a bit worse. The team, as a whole, is treading water. Let's not overblow things.

2 recs | Comment 49 comments

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And whatever impact is felt,

it will only be felt 70% of the time, based on the 25 games that Ron missed last year.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Aug 3, 2008 2:02 PM PDT   1 recs

Rec'd because sometimes the simplest statement is the most intelligent one

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Aug 6, 2008 12:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

you gotta believe that this team without Ron will get the chance to have training camp together and finally gel with each other in the locker room. I like our chances with a young core and a positive veteran leader in Bobby Jackson.

by GOKINGS on Aug 3, 2008 2:17 PM PDT   0 recs

the veteran leadership of Bobby Jackson

I guarantee we’ll come to appreciate this next season.

Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.

by Holmdel on Aug 3, 2008 6:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Am I the only one here that thinks Scott Howard-Cooper is a moron?

i never really like his “articles” and much of what he has to say makes no sense or are totally uninteresting. He should change his name to Scott Howard-Douchebag.

by hentaiking on Aug 3, 2008 3:11 PM PDT   0 recs

I don’t agree. He’s a good reporter and a good writer. I just think he’s wrong here.

by Ziller on Aug 3, 2008 7:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's where we disagree

I think he’s a putz with a press pass who overstates his own opinion as fact.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Aug 6, 2008 12:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Bee writers

What I do like about them as a group is that their voices are so varied. Amick, Cooper, Voison, MacNeal and Gutierrez all have distinctly different styles and approaches. I often disagree with them individually (some much more than others), but I do enjoy the different variations on a theme.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Aug 6, 2008 12:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's a good point

Kreidler in that mix worked even better IMHO. That being said, other than Amick or Gutierrez, whom I don’t have enough sample pieces to be critical of yet, Kreidler was the only reasonable writer of any of the rest of the group.

I have never felt Cooper informative because of his know it all attitude he takes with every single piece he has. (I think the recent trade opinion he offered of making it work with the Lakers is one excellent example. For those wondering what I mean Otis had a fanshot of it. I think it’s titled “who pissed in Scoop’s cheerios?”)

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Aug 6, 2008 1:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

6 of the champions in the 90s didnt even have a low post threat

but then again our 23 isnt quite up to the level of their 23.

"everything was beautiful and nothing hurt"

by richmond02 on Aug 3, 2008 3:35 PM PDT   0 recs

Kings Fan again.....

Good riddance to Bill and any trade that got him out of here was good. His presence on the Kings sutied no purpose whatsoever and was like hitting a pause button on the Kings organization.

Any person that has the inability to just keep their yap shut and make millions is beyond comprehension. At least Latrell Sprewell has someone he can say is equal on the IQ scale now.

by monkeyklawz on Aug 3, 2008 3:35 PM PDT   0 recs

first of all

what is wrong with being worse next season?
That’s why I love this trade so much (wouldn’t mind to see Brad go, too) – it finally puts us in a full rebuilding mode instead of trying to quick-fix stuff and get to the playoffs which, given the current state of western conference, is doubtful anyway. It also gives us two of the three things that rebuilding teams look for in trades – draft pick and a prospect (third being cap space of course).
Thing is, we need another star player, and in my opinion we have the best chance of getting one via the draft (hi brandon, hi ricky!).

by cwebb on Aug 3, 2008 3:45 PM PDT   0 recs

amen

I have been saying for a few years that the Kings are in the worst possible position an organization can be in. Not good enough to make the playoffs, not bad enough to get a really high draft pick. Hopefully Hawes and Thompson work out, but I like this trade a lot because of that. The only reason San Antonio is so good now is because David Robinson got hurt for a year and they were so bad that they got to draft Duncan.

by lodisacfan on Aug 3, 2008 5:55 PM PDT to parent up   1 recs

What I will miss.

The unknown. Ron’s entertainment value both in basketball and personality is very very difficult to duplicate. But alas, I must concur seeing him go makes sense in so many ways I can’t even begin to describe. Having Bjax back is pretty damn awesome too.

by dkons21 on Aug 3, 2008 3:56 PM PDT   0 recs

Realism

Seriously guys… the vast majority of the rookies play 5-20 minutes. On our roster we already have Brad Miller, Mikki Moore, Cisco and Salmons in front of Thompson, Donte (and Hawes). Is there any realistic chance any of them could get 30 minutes and take a lot of shots? I seriously doubt it. It’s very rare and it only happens in the last couple of months in the season or earlier for really hyped up top drafted rookies.

If Theus attempts something that revolutionary and play for instance Hawes in front of Miller and decrease Moore’s minutes to 20, it would be totally unexpected. Do you really see that happening? I hope so but I can’t believe it.

The most realistic scenario would be….

- Hawes… 15-20 minutes if Brad won’t get injured.
- Thompson… 5-10 minutes depending on his battle with Shelden and Donte maybe.
- Donte… 5-10 minutes.. I guess we’ll see if he can also play the 3.
- Shelden… DNP-10 mins.

What do you think?

by ZenBaller on Aug 3, 2008 4:47 PM PDT   0 recs

Agreed.

But…..
It shouldn’t be that way, because Mikki Moore and Brad Miller are not going to be here when/if this franchise does anything of any significance. I love Brad Miller (especially now that he is a known pothead) but I would like to see him as more of a mentor to Hawes, and have him and Hawes play about 25 min each. I would love it if Thompson could start and have the older guys tutor him. I also don’t really see Salmons with this franchise for a long period of time, although I like him a bit.

by lodisacfan on Aug 3, 2008 5:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

We need Hawes to hit the boards like Elton Brand

not Elton John.

Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.

by Holmdel on Aug 3, 2008 9:00 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

What cwebb said

Pretty much the whole point, I think. We are in rebuilding mode, which is where we’ve needed to admit to being for a couple of years. The Kings aren’t one big signing away from being contenders, and no amount of trading can make them one, either.

I wouldn’t crap on Ron Artest, because when he was on the court, he gave 100% every second, unlike Bibby, who seems to hate playing a game for a living. I’d say the same thing about Miller up until last season when he seemed to really find his joy for the game (and apparently, “special” brownies) again. I’ll always have respect for Artest that way. The man worked.

That being said, the Kings are better off with him gone, not in terms of wins in ‘08-’09, but for subsequent seasons. If the youngsters can get enough minutes to find their games, we may be in position to become contenders when cap space is freed up in two years. Sacramento could be a desirable place for a top-tier free agent, especially if we can show that we have a fantastic core of young players surrounding Kevin Martin.

Let them play, Reggie. Why you sat Douby to give minutes to Anthony Johnson last season will always be a mystery to me…

Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.

by andy sims on Aug 3, 2008 5:47 PM PDT   0 recs

Because Douby can't play the point

He’s a turnover waiting to happen when he’s the primary ball handler.

Let's go home.-Kevin Martin

by LeaguePassAddict on Aug 3, 2008 6:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

To be fair, he has plenty of missed FGAs to go with those turnovers.

by Ziller on Aug 3, 2008 7:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't know what I was thinking.

You’re absolutely right.

Let's go home.-Kevin Martin

by LeaguePassAddict on Aug 3, 2008 8:41 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Douby excelled in the summer league at the two

he’s clearly not a one. but its hard to see him get any minutes behind cisco, kmart and Bobby J. But then again, i would love to see Bobby take Douby under his wing

by hentaiking on Aug 3, 2008 6:40 PM PDT   0 recs

Douby

He’s at his best when playing the same position as…Kevin Martin.

I like Douby. For his sake, I hope he gets a change of scenery.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Aug 3, 2008 6:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

careful!

That’s how rumors and trade ideas get started.

Now I can put my pink lace bra and panties back on. - Kfan in Korea

by iashwash on Aug 3, 2008 7:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Agree

I think he’d do really well as a two guard with a run-and-gun type offense. And he’s a decent defender. But he tends to camp out behind the three point line and wait for the ball instead of moving and cutting.

He did show a bit more ability to create his own shot in summer league, but, then again, it was summer league.

Let's go home.-Kevin Martin

by LeaguePassAddict on Aug 3, 2008 8:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Firepower

I’m telling you guys, the bench lineup of Cisco/Bobby Jackson/Douby/2 rebounders may set the record for least assists per 48 minutes ever, but they will be fun and dangerous. One of those guys will be hot at all times, it remains to be seen if they figure out how to identify that person and get them the ball.

Its also not the worst defensive team ever.

by ForThree on Aug 4, 2008 5:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Douby?

What, in the history of his play with the Kings, makes you think he’s capable of being the assist machine you envision?

He has never shown anything of the kind.

Let's go home.-Kevin Martin

by LeaguePassAddict on Aug 4, 2008 8:39 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Read it again...
...may set the record for least assists per 48 minutes ever…

I think that all of Douby’s history of play with the Kings makes ForThree think that he’s capable of being the kind of assist machine he envisions.

by smgmatt on Aug 4, 2008 8:43 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Gotcha. My bad.

Funny.

Let's go home.-Kevin Martin

by LeaguePassAddict on Aug 4, 2008 8:55 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Douby

I feel like the Kings don’t need him. They already have K-Mart at the 2 who won’t be giving up his starting position anytime soon, they have Cisco to be a reliable 2-3 backup, and Douby hasn’t shown any ability to play point. I don’t see a spot for him of 10-20 minutes a game on this team, and he really hasn’t shown he deserves that type of minutes anyways.

by iamstern'skippah! on Aug 3, 2008 8:59 PM PDT   0 recs

But isnt it great...

When you can yell “Light it up Douby!!” when he enters the game? Also, he will be nice when the injury bug inevitably hits

by lodisacfan on Aug 3, 2008 11:25 PM PDT   0 recs

I think it's safe to say

The Kings will miss Ron’s contributions on the court. I think the Bee guy was pretty spot on.

Some of Z’s comments were pretty humorous. I’d hope the point guards and Brad Miller, one of the best passing big men in the game, would have a higher assist rate than Artest.

I’ll pass on dissecting the rest of the crapfest, but I will say I also like the contributions of a lot of new posters on this thread. I hope you folks stick around; we could use some more diverse opinions around here.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Aug 4, 2008 12:45 AM PDT   0 recs

I’d hope the point guards and Brad Miller, one of the best passing big men in the game, would have a higher assist rate than Artest.

When the point guards include gunners like Bibby and Udrih, it’s worth mentioning.

by Ziller on Aug 4, 2008 7:47 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

How many 3s

had more assists per 48 than Artest last season?

I don’t know the answer, and I may not like it, but I think it’s worth raising here as part of the discussion.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Aug 4, 2008 1:48 PM PDT   0 recs

Did a forward search on

Basketballreference.com

I searched Per 48mins. – 07-08 – Ass – min 50 games – Forwards. Dropped players like Garnett/Odom/Nowitski. Then searched Guards%Forwards same parameters and added players like LeBron/Pierce/Prince(who for some reason were all listed as guards). Here’s the list I came up with.

Assists per 48:

1. LeBron James 8.6
2. Tracy McGrady 7.6
3. Emmanuel Ginobili 6.9
4. Joe Johnson 6.8
5. Hidayet Turkoglu 6.5
6. Andrei Kirilenko 6.2
7. Paul Pierce 6.1
8. Luke Walton 6.0
9. Caron Butler 5.9
10. Andre Iguodala 5.8
11. Stephen Jackson 5.0
12. Devin Brown 4.8
13. Tayshaun Prince 4.8
14. Matt Barnes 4.7
15. Mike Dunleavy 4.7
16. Mike Miller 4.7
17. Fred Jones 4.6
18. Carmelo Anthony 4.4
19. Ron Artest 4.4
20. Grant Hill 4.4
21. Gerald Wallace 4.4

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Aug 4, 2008 2:33 PM PDT to parent up   1 recs

Great post!

Stars score. Super-stars score AND make their teammates better.

Let's go home.-Kevin Martin

by LeaguePassAddict on Aug 5, 2008 8:15 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Some of those guys

are guard-forwards to be charitable. A few of those guys also can’t shoot very well or have more shooters to pass the ball to, so I hope they are giving the rock up.

So Artest was 19th of out of how many?

by coolcatreportdotcom on Aug 4, 2008 7:33 PM PDT   0 recs

well, more like 21

he’s tied with those guys

Now I can put my pink lace bra and panties back on. - Kfan in Korea

by iashwash on Aug 4, 2008 8:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

but we can assume what, fifty?

32 starting small forwards + 16 =48

Now I can put my pink lace bra and panties back on. - Kfan in Korea

by iashwash on Aug 4, 2008 8:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes

it is hard to differentiate between SG/SF at times. They are really the same position. You didn’t stipulate that they needed to shoot worse than Ron or that they had less shooters to pass to(the Kings have plenty of quality shooters to pass to BTW).

You asked:

How many 3s had more assists per 48 than Artest last season?

My answer 17. We initiated our offense through Ron quite often last year. When you take that into account Ron’s 4.4 is poor compared to Hill’s 4.4, coming on a team that initiates through its point guard.

Bottom line he wasn’t a great assist guy.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Aug 4, 2008 8:30 PM PDT to parent up   1 recs

Didn't you know?

When we get an answer we don’t like, we change the question!

by smgmatt on Aug 5, 2008 6:47 AM PDT to parent up   1 recs

Would be funny

if it wasn’t true.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Aug 5, 2008 7:31 AM PDT to parent up   1 recs

Bottom line

It appears he was in the top 30-35% of all SFs in the league in terms of assists. That’s why the followup question was relevant.

But hey, if we don’t like the question, there’s a simple solution: just don’t answer it.

And naturally, since you did the “forward” search, I think it’s same to assume the list did not stop at No. 21. You just cut it off there.

The solution was simple: just provide the whole list. I guess it’s just easier to posture.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Aug 5, 2008 10:00 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Now you're just being silly

He’s #18 out of 30 teams. How is that top 35%? Even if you say 3-4 of those listed are SGs he’s still very middle of the pack.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Aug 5, 2008 10:50 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Here's how
  • 30 teams in the NBA.
  • 12 active players on each team.
  • 360 active players in the league (stop me if I am going too fast).
  • 360 / 5 positions = 72 small forwards, more or less.
  • 19/72 = .26.
  • Ooops, you’re right. He wasn’t top 30-35%, he was probably top 25-30%.

Plus you acknowledge your list includes guards, so he probably moves up to top 15.

Just run the whole list, not the chopped off version.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Aug 6, 2008 12:21 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Ah

You want to include all the backups and end of the bench guys. Ok then yeah he’s in the top 1/3.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Aug 6, 2008 12:41 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Here's how
  • 30 teams in the NBA.
  • 12 active players on each team.
  • 360 active players in the league (stop me if I am going too fast).
  • 360 / 5 positions = 72 smnall forwards, more or less.
  • 19/72 = .26.

Ooops, you’re right. He wasn’t top 30-35%, he was probably top 25-30%.

Plus you acknowledge your list includes guards, so he probably moves up to top 15.

Just run the whole list, not the chopped off version.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Aug 6, 2008 12:19 AM PDT   0 recs

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