The $ucking Chest Wound
Over the past couple of days, there has been some discussion as to what (and whom) is to blame for our current salary woes. From C-Webb's knee to the MLE, everyone has an opinion as to what has caused us to have no cap space and a team that would consider a .500 season a success.
OK, so how are we spending over $70 million this year? Where have we over spent? The starting lineup is the best place to look first. These guys get the most minutes, make the biggest difference...yeah! I'm sure that it's the money that we're spending on our starting lineup.
Center Brad Miller will make $11.4 million this year, while the NBA average for starting centers is $8.7 million. Jermaine O'Neal tops this list at $21.4 million, while Joakim Noah looks to be the cheapest at $2.3 million. Miller really is about right smack dab in the middle of the NBA center pool, and $8.7 million would be about right for him. The verdict: Miller is overpaid by almost $3 million.
Power Forward Pucker up, MLE haters. Mikki Moore will make $5.8 million this year, while the NBA average is almost twice that much at $11.0 million. Kevin Garnett's $24.8 million tops this list, while Hakim Warrick occupies the position in Memphis for $2.1 million. There are only six starting NBA PF's that make less than Moore (ha! less than Moore...), and every one of those guys are working off their first contract. Moore may be miscast as an NBA starter, but this is through no fault of his own. Indeed, this guy is a screaming success story when you look at where he started and how hard he has had to work. Imagine Mikki's heart in Joe Barry Carroll's body. Moore would be fair value as the first big off the bench. As a starter he is at least a $6 million player. I'll call this one a push. Moore may not be the cure, but he certainly is not the cause.
Small Forward John Salmons was another MLE signing, but I don't think that the Kings paid the full MLE (I could be wrong). Regardless, Salmons will make $5.1 million at a position that averages $8.1 million. Paul Pierce leads at $18.1 million, and Jamario Moon comes in at a tidy $700,000, the lowest paid starter in the NBA. There are about 10 guys that make less than Salmons, mostly youngsters. Salmons is right there with Moore - not a real cure but not a guy that's dragging you down by virtue of his play, contract, or attitude. He made Artest more easily expendable. He is not in the long term plans for the Kings, but like Moore he is an important transitional piece. Salmons is at least a push, and may even be good value should he replicate his numbers as a starter from last year.
Shooting Guard Kevin Martin will make $8.8 million this year, but that is still below the $10.1 million average for the SG position. Thank Kobe and his $21.3 million contract. Ronnie Brewer (should he hold off Kyle Korver) weighs in at $1.8 million, or about $10,000 a pound. Corey Maggette and Chris Paul were the only other scorers in the top 20 last year that made less than $10 million, and CP3's going to get squared on that deal next year. For all the talk of what Martin needs to do to get to the next level, he is a $12 million dollar player right now if he does nothing more for the next five years than maintain his 62% true shooting percentage. There are 17 starting shooting guards that make more than Kevin Martin. There are not 10 shooting guards that are better than Kevin Martin. Kevin Martin is at least a $3 million value.
Point Guard Beno Udrih for $5.6 million or Jason Kidd for $21.4 million? On the other hand, how about Rajon Rondo for $1.3 million? The NBA average for starting PG's is $7.8 million. That number will jump next year when CP3 and Deron Williams get paid. Beno Udrih or Chris Duhon? They will both make $5.6 million this year - Duhon may not even start. Udrih is close to being fair value no matter what side of the argument you may be on - he's either slighlty underpaid or slightly overpaid depending on you point of view. Wait and see...
To recap, the starting lineup is about fair value. Not overly talented, but fair value. The starting lineup for the Kings totals $36.7 million, while the NBA average is $45.7 million. Hmmm. That would lead me to believe that the trouble might be further down the bench.
Bobby Brown, Donte' Greene, Quincy Douby, Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes make a combined $6.7 million. They might be good value, they might turn out to be no value. But at an average of $1.3 million per player, they can't be bad value. Francisco Garcia at $2 million could be the best value on this team not named Kevin Martin.
Next comes Bobby Jackson at $7 million, and Shelden Williams at $3.4 million. Both of these guys are here as a result of trades that unloaded contract and/or drama. Jackson will lend a veteran presence and some backup PG minutes, but he is at least $5 million short of justifying the salary. Williams could earn that $3.4 million as a banger if he is given the minutes, but if he winds up behind Miller/Hawes/Moore/Thompson, he is overpaid by almost $2.5 million.
So that leaves Shareef Abdur-Rahim at $6.2 million and K9(woof!) at $8.6 million. That's $14.8 million for two guys who will contribue nothing this year. There are only 15 starters in the NBA that make more than $14.8 million. $14.8 million would be the 8th largest investment for a starting power forward. Elton Brand will make $13.8 million this year.
So while the starters are relatively fair value, the bench appears to have about $20 million in fat, most of it coming by way of problem-unloading trades (C-Webb's knee, Bibby's salary, Artest's Artestiness). 'Reef, through injury, is the one bad free agent signing. Interestingly, C-Webb, Bibby and Artest all came here via trade. Win a few, lose a few.
Does this mean that we blame bad trades? No. We blame the situation. Webber doesn't blow out his knee, and we watch as Miller becomes the new Vlade in time to hang the 2nd and 3rd championship banner in the rafters, leaving us to piss and moan about the 4th one that we got jobbed out of in 2002. We blame K9(woof!) for losing his blue collar attitude and degenerating into an untradeable blob. We blame Shareef Abdur-Rahim for being a great guy with bad knees.
Of course, I could be dead wrong. Maybe I am. Too f*cking bad. TZ just signed me to a full MLE.
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Comments
Great Analysis
It’s clear to me (and I could be wrong of course) that K-9 and Reef’s contract are mainly the problem. The root of the contracts is of course C-Webb’s knee (K-9s trade and having to sign Reef cause we needed a power forward). The only other bad contract is B-Jax but that was a necessary risk in order to get rid of Bill Bill.
Like I mentioned in the Cisco discussion, this is just the business side of the NBA. You gotta overpay a little bit in order to get the player that you want. If you don’t, the next team will. Even then, we haven’t really made horrible mistakes when it comes to signing players (Brian Cardinal anyone? or maybe Brian Scalibrini?).
Once the bad contracts are gone, we are gonna have a great opportunity to add some missing pieces to this team and hopefully make some noice in the L.
by eduardo_m7 on Sep 24, 2008 11:40 PM PDT 0 recs
Great work
I choose to look at it by position. The salaries of Moore, Shelden,Reef, & Thomas for the PF position total $24M. They produced 886 total points for the season in 3079 minutes of playing time. Beno produced 834 points in only 2080 minutes at a cost of only $5M.
The four PF’s had a total of 663 rebounds in those 3079 minutes. Brad Miller had 681 rebounds in a little over 2500 minutes at a cost of $11M.
So, one PG & one C out rebounded & out scores our entire PF line. At a cost of $9M less. IMHO, we couldn’t have done any worse if we had kept CWebb until he took an injury retirement.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
by HighTops on Sep 25, 2008 12:11 AM PDT 0 recs
Which he didn't take High Tops
Chris got paid almost all of his contract when Philly bought him out btw.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Sep 25, 2008 6:30 AM PDT
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And ...
… it was for five years. ClipperSteve took 214 out to dinner last night in Bakersfield, but got distracted by some Baron Davis webvid.
by Ziller on Sep 25, 2008 5:28 AM PDT 0 recs
CS is good peoples
Don’t diss him like that or I gotta take you out back and whoop you up some!
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Sep 25, 2008 6:32 AM PDT
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Full MLE for Section?
That’s an absolute steal!
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
by Exhibit G on
Sep 25, 2008 7:39 AM PDT
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I should have read the fine print
Turns out I signed for the full Moron Level Exception. I get paid in stale Cheetos and Billy Beer (mmm, Billy Beer…).
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on
Sep 25, 2008 8:02 AM PDT
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Stale Cheetos and Billy Beer?
I stand corrected. TZ, you’re overpaying!
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
by Exhibit G on
Sep 25, 2008 8:45 AM PDT
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No way
Section is worth every last Cheeto in the bag.
Just pity poor Mrs. Section who has to clean the orange fingerprints off the keyboard.
Let's go home.-Kevin Martin
by LeaguePassAddict on
Sep 25, 2008 5:38 PM PDT
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There are a lot of reasons
to pity poor Mrs. Section.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on
Sep 25, 2008 6:19 PM PDT
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Great Post Section
I think it illustrates somewhat the difficulty of rebuilding a team when you try to remain competitive.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Sep 25, 2008 6:31 AM PDT 0 recs
Detroit?
Donte? Donte'! Donté?!?!
'spect da 'xtra E'
by iashwash on
Sep 25, 2008 9:17 AM PDT
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Close...
I think it illustrates somewhat the difficulty impossibility of rebuilding a team when you try to remain competitive.
Shut up and Coach
by Carl on
Sep 25, 2008 9:25 AM PDT
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At least you mostly agree with me Carl LOL
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Sep 26, 2008 11:17 AM PDT
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You go get 'em section!
Great post. Break everything down to its basics, and its easy to see where the problems lie. And the lie with K9(woof!). While Shareef’s salary hurts too, I have no bad feelings toward such a stand up guy.
Wait....Why is everybody clapping? Everyone around me is clapping.... I guess I should be clapping too... GO LAKERS!!! I hate living in So Cal
by 27freethrows on Sep 25, 2008 12:41 PM PDT 0 recs
I'm not so sure
Averages are the best way to calculate whether someone is good money or not. The ideal starting lineup wouldn’t be a bunch of players who are average and make average money. The ideal is, NBA history shows, two or three stars who make top money, combined with two or three solid role players who are good value but not costly. Yes, it is not Mikki’s fault he gets paid well and is a NBA starter despite the fact that he’s not your ideal starting PF. It’s Geoff’s. But we’re not evaluating Mikki here as much as we’re evaluating Geoff, right?
In the end, however, I agree with your conclusion in parts. The problem is the dead weight in the form of SAR and KT. I don’t think “win some and lose some” is the correct final takeaway, though. As Cal notes above, it’s impossible to rebuild and remain competitive. Do or do not, there is no try. I think KT and SAR, and Mikki to some extent, are casualties of a band-aid mentality from 2004-2007. Finally, with the Bibby trade, and Artest coming soon after, we’ve moved into full rebuilding. At some point we’re going to have to draft, trade for, or develop (hopefully one if not both of Hawes and JT pans out very nicely) one or two more stars to go with Martin.
by LPKingsFan on Sep 25, 2008 2:04 PM PDT 0 recs
Do or do not, there is no try
Since 2003 we have been trying to replace CWebb, it’s time to do it. And, your observation
NBA history shows, two or three stars who make top money, combined with two or three solid role players who are good value
makes sense to me. If we could trade KT + any combo of extra PF’s, SF’s, or Draft choices for a Starting upper tier PF FA next year, then we would have two stars. Now, Hawes, JT, and Greene’ don’t have to be stars. They ony have to be solid role players. IF one or more does becomce a star, so much the better.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
by HighTops on
Sep 25, 2008 4:01 PM PDT
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