Vegas Has No Love for the Kings
by Ziller
on Sep 29, 2008 7:00 AM PDT
How bad does Vegas think the Kings will be? Only two teams -- Oklahoma City and Memphis -- have longer odds to win the 2008-09 championship, according to Ross Siler of the Salt Lake Tribune. The Kings are etched in at 125/1 odds. OKC is at 200/1, and Memphis is at a hilarious 300/1.
This isn't 100% lack of faith in the Kings -- small-market teams get less action, and thus lower odds, across the board. Siler notes Utah has 18/1 odds, despite two straight Conference Finals visits. Portland's at 12/1 with Phoenix, New Orleans is at 8/1.
There also the matter of conference strength: while the East continues to be bolstered at the top, the depth is clearly stronger in the West. So there will be an artificial discount on Western teams because the gulf between them (us?) and the top of the conference is great. There's basically no chance the Kings or Grizz can get to the Finals, let alone win them. In the East, it's easier to imagine lower teams do something fancy and race through the conference to the Finals, where I suppose anything can happen.
But ... Vegas says we have a bottom five team in our town. A few well-meaning, realist pundits have said the same. What do you think?
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Yikes!
The Kings are truly better than only five teams right now – Memphis, Minnesota, OKC, New York and Milwaukee. They are on a par with seven other teams – The Clips, Golden State, Chicago, New Jersey, Charlotte, Miami and Indiana. My gut tells me that they will finish 11th in the West, and they will be the eight worst team overall.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Sep 29, 2008 7:52 AM PDT 1 recs
Agreed
That’s why I voted ‘Yes.’ If you’re the sixth worse team in the league, it doesn’t take much to fall back to 5th. Miller comes in out of shape, something happens to Martin and the Kings will fall back.
Shut up and Coach
by Carl on
Sep 29, 2008 9:58 AM PDT
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Miller
Any word on his physical conditioning program this summer? I can’t imagine that he’d let himself fall apart – especially with already embarrassing himself with the silly pot incident. On the other hand, I’d also be surprised if he came in looking as good as he did last year when his pride was really on the line after a (for him) very poor year.
by Kusian on
Sep 29, 2008 10:34 AM PDT
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It's too easy to imagine Sacramento winning 35 games for one reason or the other
I think the biggest reason Sacramento isn’t considered to do well is largely because they have so well “known” parts that nat’l pundits (Vegas could be considered that) don’t know enough to play the odds on a team like the Kings which is virtually assured to miss the playoffs by being in the West, but could potentially be a better team than a potential playoff team in the East.
In otherwords, it’s all relative. What Vegas thinks is highly unimportant.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Sep 29, 2008 12:28 PM PDT 0 recs
the vegas "pundits"?
Assuming we all know how the betting odds are actually created, let’s remember too that fans of teams are more likely to throw money on their team just for the fun of it. I don’t think there’s as many Kings Fans doing this as there are Nets and Knicks fans and I’m not surprised that Memphis fills the bottom end of the betting odds. 300-1?
Are the Kings better than the worst five in the league this year? Maybe. But they are lumped into a group of teams that could win anywhere from 25-35 games this year. There’s only three teams off the top of my head that are demonstratively worse than the Kings – Minnesota, OKC, and Memphis. There’s a group of teams – LAC, Miami, Charlotte, Milwaukee, NY, Atlanta, Indiana, NJ and maybe even Golden State that could be better or about what they were last year. Maybe worse. The Kings are in that group and do we really need to argue over whose pig stinks less? They’ll need more than luck to make the playoffs this year. Does anyone actually think the Kings have a legitimate shot at the playoffs this year? They look better than last year mostly because they look like they have more potential for the future than in years past. That doesn’t usually get you to the playoffs. I’m not sure they’ll win as many games this yeas as they did last, but they’ll be better in the new future for it.
still Swish Fan #1.
by ChrisCEIT on
Sep 29, 2008 1:06 PM PDT
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What in my statement did you disagree with?
The only thing I disagree with you about is Nick Swisher, but I never liked the guy anyway.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Sep 29, 2008 2:09 PM PDT
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for one.
That the Kings are better than playoff teams in the East. They aren’t better than the Sixers. Are they better than the Hawks? Maybe, but then that’s the Hawks – who knows what that team is going to do this year. I’ll loop them in the same group, but I doubt this Kings team would make the playoffs in the East. And to reiterate my point, the only teams the Kings are clearly better than (on paper anyway) are Western Conference teams.
still Swish Fan #1.
by ChrisCEIT on
Sep 30, 2008 6:47 AM PDT
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I'm going to remain confused
And just simply leave it at that.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Sep 30, 2008 9:46 PM PDT
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Vegas Odds
You can’t rank teams based on Vegas odds. The odds are only based on two things the chances of winning it all and how many people are betting on them. They want you to bet on a loser so they increase the odds. If they started to get a lot of bets on the Kings they’d take them but the odds would go down, so that they wouldn’t get burned if a MIRACLE happened.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
by HighTops on
Sep 29, 2008 1:27 PM PDT
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I know that HT
I didn’t say that the Vegas odds are a ranking. I was making an analogy to pundits like national sportswriters you use big names & glamour cities to often rank disappointments, successes and the like. Sure the Spurs are a classic example of the anti glamour, but some of that is because Duncan isn’t that guy. If his personal life was half as flamboyant as his game is, San Antone would be trouble.
Like Chris I’m beginning to wonder if I’m just too vague to understand my actual point. So I’ll clarify.
I think of the Vegas similar way I do to many nat’l sportswriters. I think many of them see the glamour players (which usually coincide with the best players) and follow those teams. It’s why a guy from England can say Cisco hasn’t earned his extension when he lives in England. (Yes, that guy lives in England. He’s also a Bulls fan. So that is sorta that.) It’s also why the Kings who could be better than all those teams if healthy and also much much worse when not. So much of this is a flip of the coin, and there are many teams in the same boat. I’m happy that Sacramento is in that boat while rebuilding and looking at the future. Memphis, OKC, and MInnesota are in the same boat and are far far worse off.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Sep 29, 2008 2:14 PM PDT
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Wasn't explaining odds making
I was agreeing with
that nat’l pundits (Vegas could be considered that) don’t know enough to play the odds on a team like the Kings which is virtually assured to miss the playoffs by being in the West
Just as odds makers only need to know who’s NOT going to win, these pundits as you called them can say anything they want about teams that won’t win. If they miss by 2,3 or even 8 positions in the standings, who’s going to know or care next April. Now, if they say a contender is going to drop 6 spots, the news hit the internet and their defending themselves all year.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
by HighTops on
Sep 29, 2008 2:43 PM PDT
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Excellent Point
It’s hard to disagree with that.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Sep 29, 2008 10:20 PM PDT
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Gambling Q's: I love them!
OK, first things first. Vegas does not rank teams based on their likelyhood to win a chmpionship. Vegas places odds in an effort to win exactly 50% of the bets. That way, they never lose, just take their small cut of the winnings and continue to profit. When it comes to placing a line such as this, the goal is to set the line high enough to get local fans or gamblers to bite. Lets be honest, we could play this season 125 times and I doubt the Kings would win one championship. However, the odds are placed high/low enough to make a gambler take a chance.
Should a team be lucky enough to win it all (read: NY Giants) the Vegas payout has to be exceeded by all of the other teams that didnt hit, this is how Vegas always wins. In other words, the odds on the Kings winning it all this year arent 125:1, the are 125:1 plus the profit based off of all the other teams that dont win.
What does that all mean for the Kings odds? Not much. No matter where the odds are placed, people will bet. Pre-season championship bets are not for professional gamblers; they are for the fans. If risking 10 bucks is worth to potential $1250 payout, let it ride. And I’ve got an easy 3-game parlay that too good to refuse. :)
Wait....Why is everybody clapping? Everyone around me is clapping.... I guess I should be clapping too... GO LAKERS!!! I hate living in So Cal
by 27freethrows on Sep 29, 2008 9:31 PM PDT 0 recs
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