Where We Stand, or Sit, or Lay Down, or Curl Up in the Fetal Position
by Tom Ziller on Jan 20, 2009 10:28 AM PST
in Commentary
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PrintNewsflash, dateline Sacramento: the Kings suck.
But how? You can't fix problems without, um, identifying the problems. So let's head through this methodically.
FOUR FACTORS X 2
Dean Oliver's seminal Basketball on Paper introduced possession-based analysis to the masses. One of the most central team analysis tools he offered is called The Four Factors. These four factors define the quality of an offense. They also apply to defenses, hence the "X 2." Oliver used regression analysis to divine the elements that make an efficient or inefficient offense/defense. In order of import: shooting, turnovers, rebounding, fouls. Shooting is by far the most important element on either end; rebounding and turnovers are about equal in importance. Foul-drawing/giving is a factor, but not as big a deal on a league-wide level as the others. All other stats you could bring up factor into one of the these eight categories.
So stack 'em up.
OFFENSE
Shooting, as expressed by effective field goal percentage: Kings -- 21st with .482 eFG%; league average -- .495; league high -- .543 (Phoenix); league worst -- .459 (Clippers).
Turnovers, as expressed by turnovers/100 possessions: Kings -- 26th with 14.6; league average -- 13.6; league best -- 12.0 (San Antonio); league worst -- 15.4 (Boston).
Rebounding, as expressed by offensive rebounding percentage: Kings -- 24th with 25.3%; league average -- 26.8%; league best -- 32.7% (Portland); league worst -- 21.3% (San Antonio).
Fouls, as expressed by free throws made/100 field goals attempted: Kings -- 9th with 24.7; league average -- 23.6; league best -- 29.9 (Denver); league worst -- 18.9 (San Antonio).
DEFENSE
Shooting, as expressed by opponent effective field goal percentage: Kings -- 28th with .519; league average -- .495; league best -- .458 (Orlando); league worst -- .527 (Washington).
Turnovers, as expressed by opponents turnovers/100 possessions: Kings -- 17th with 13.1; league average -- 13.6; league best -- 15.6 (Milwaukee); league worst -- 11.8 (Phoenix).
Rebounding, as expressed by defensive rebounding percentage: Kings -- 29th with 70.5%; league average -- 73.2%; league best -- 77.2% (San Antonio); league worst -- 67.1% (Golden State).
Fouls, as expressed by opponents free throws made/100 field goals attempted: Kings -- 27th with 26.8; league average -- 23.6; league best -- 18.3 (San Antonio); league worst -- 30.1 (Milwaukee).
***
Of the eight factors which decide a team's quality game-to-game, the Kings rank above average in ... exactly one. And it is the least important factor on offense. The Kings rank among the bottom third of the league in all but two categories. On defense, Sacramento ranks among the worst four teams in the league in three of the four factors ... including the two most important.
***
There isn't a magical dressing for such widespread anemia. Carlos Boozer won't fix it alone, nor will some 19-year-old point guard. There's a sincere talent deficit working here, to go hand in hand with bad execution and often poor effort. Multiple miracles are required over the next few years so that we don't find our team in a re-run of the franchise's first 15 years in Sacramento.
Not to beat a long-dead horse, but in 1998 the salvation came in waves: the Webber trade, the Divac signing, bringing Peja over, drafting Jason Williams. And we'd have more moves before getting to the elite level -- trading for Mike Bibby, trading for Doug Christie, drafting Hedo Turkoglu, signing Bobby Jackson, drafting signing Scot Pollard. (Thanks Chris!)
That is one helluva of a re-imagining. It can happen, but it seems so far away, so ... invisible.
Let's hope Petrie, Cooper and Levien are cooking something up. Because it needs to be BIG.
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We may have had a few of those waves already
Petrie’s ability to clear out cap space, and the drafting of two young bigs with potential.
But damn, looking at your list of what it took to put the early 21st century Kings team together (you could probably add the Rick Adelman hire), it does feel like there’s a lot left to do. This isn’t the NFL, where you can go from the slums to the penthouse in a year – so Petrie’s going to have to have a Midas touch outside of just making good draft decisions.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
…Carlos Boozer won’t fix it alone, nor will some 19-year-old point guard…
While this is true, Boozer is an excellent rebounder, and would obviously help our rebounding statistic on offense and defense. And to replace Udrih would be to replace a player with one of the worst assist/TO ratios in the league at the point guard position.
although i agree with your overall thought that there is no magical solution that can be applied to fix our issues.
Wouldnt it be a lot more comforting..
If we had ANY idea about what direction this team was going in. No one can seem to guess what direction Petrie is going with this rebuild, and Petrie is the last person on the planet who is going to tell anyone what he is up to. So as fans we are left to guess what the “Genious” is up to. Looking at all the recent trades and moves, one is left with the impression that even Petrie doesnt know what will happen while he continues to dump salary and talent at an alarming rate. I mean, what exactly did we get in return for Webber, Bibby, and Artest? I mean talent left, but no talent returned. That is the main reason for the total void of talent we now have. This was planned by Petrie. He has some grand move up his sleeve, but no one but he can see it. If he is able to bring in an allstar with all these moves he has made, then all praise Petrie. If he just dumped talent and salary in the hope that there would be something better to spend the money on later, then we may be in a heap of trouble as the Owners are starting to feel the economic pinch like everyone else. Could be you are seeing the product on the floor now that was intended to contend. If so, we are in for a longer drought than expected..
Some thoughts on this
First, maybe I should finish BoP (I do find it too manual TZ, but then again, I’m stuck on Restaurant at the End of the Universe. Take it for what it’s worth.)
Second, good stuff on the 4 Factors points. I don’t know if the FT attempts is less overall to a quality offense, but it doesn’t make up for not hitting shots, the lack of o boards (Shock excepted), and in general poor effort.
Third, the Kings are skewed. This was a flawed poorly executed, veteran quitting on, hurt basketball team. Oklahoma City is bad. It’s easy to imagine them getting blown out by 50 many games without Durant or Green, let alone both of them. I’ve said this many times about this group, but I’m going to say it again: This is a mediocre team having a crummy season. Assuming the world doesn’t fall apart by 2012 (don’t ask), I think the team will reap the benefits of this particular season. Petrie has already found some future of a core in Hawes and Thompson on the front line. It’s already assumed Garcia & Martin are also parts of this core. Some of the pieces fit, and some of them don’t. At some point, it’s up to Petrie to get this team to the right level it needs by changing the mix of the players. That starts with Brad Miller in my opinion.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Restaraun at the End of the Universe
You owe it to yourself to finish it, along with the rest of the books in the series.
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
I do no question
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Petrie needs to just gut this team
…but it almost seems like he’s apathetic towards doing to. His accomplishments the past 2 years have been trading out Bibby and Artest…and signing bottom of the barrel, D-League talent to fill the roster. The management just frustrates me.
Petrie’s moves 08-current, 07-08 via hoopshype:
SEASON 2008-09
December 15 2008
Fired head coach Reggie Theus and assistant coach Chuck Person and named Kenny Natt interim head coach.
November 25 2008
Named Jason Levien team general counsel/assistant general manager.
October 21 2008
Waived forwards Bobby Jones and Noel Felix.
October 16 2008
Exercised the contract option on center Spencer Hawes through 2009-10.
October 8 2008
Waived center Zhang Kai.
October 1 2008
Signed forwards Bobby Jones and Noel Felix and center Zhang Kai and named Shareef Abdur-Rahim assistant coach.
September 29 2008
Signed guard Francisco Garcia to a contract extension.
August 14 2008
Traded guard Sean Singletary and forwards Ron Artest and Patrick Ewing Jr to the Houston Rockets for guard Bobby Jackson, forward Donte Greene, a future first-round pick and other considerations.
July 25 2008
Signed guard Bobby Brown.
July 9 2008
Signed guard Beno Udrih to a contract extension and signed guard Sean Singletary and forward Patrick Ewing Jr.
July 8 2008
Signed forward Jason Thompson.
Draft 2008
Selected forwards Jason Thompson (12th overall pick) and Patrick Ewing Jr (43rd overall pick) and guard Sean Singletary (42nd overall pick).
SEASON 2007-08
February 29 2008
Waived guard Tyronn Lue.
February 16 2008
Traded guard Mike Bibby to Atlanta for guards Anthony Johnson and Tyronn Lue, centers Shelden Williams and Lorenzen Wright and a second-round pick; w aived guard Dahntay Jones and forward Justin Williams.
December 10 2007
Signed guard Dahntay Jones and waived center Darryl Watkins.
November 15 2007
Waived guard Orien Greene.
November 1 2007
Signed guard Beno Udrih.
October 31 2007
Waived guard Mustafa Shakur.
October 14 2007
Waived forwards Nik Caner-Medley and Brandon Robinson and centers Rashid Byrd and Adam Parada.
October 4 2007
Named Lafayette Lever director of player development.
October 1 2007
Signed forward Nik Caner-Medley and centers Rashid Byrd, Adam Parada and Darryl Watkins.
August 31 2007
Signed guard Orien Greene.
August 29 2007
Signed guard Kevin Martin to a contract extension and named Rex Kalamian assistant coach.
August 7 2007
Re-signed forward Justin Williams.
August 1 2007
Named Chuck Person and Randy Brown assistant coaches.
July 13 2007
Signed forward Mikki Moore.
July 7 2007
Named Kenny Natt assistant coach.
July 5 2007
Signed guard Mustafa Shakur and center Spencer Hawes.
Draft 2007
Selected center Spencer Hawes (10th overall pick).
June 22 2007
Exercised the contract option on guards Francisco Garcia and Quincy Douby through 2008-09.
June 19 2007
Named Reggie Theus head coach.
April 20 2007
Fired head coach Eric Musselman.
Every move
Looking at every move is not going to show you the full picture.
In TZ’s breakdown he illustrated how the previous turnaround came to be (trade for Webber, sign Divac, bring Peja over, etc). If you listed every transaction during that era, there’d be a ton of fluff, just like your breakdown here. When we look back in a couple of years, we very well could look at the turnaround like:
“Salvation came in waves: Drafting Hawes, Drafting Thompson, the Kevin Martin extension, the trade for Donte Greene….”
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
Exactly
This team is missing parts sure, and some of that is being tied up in veterans like Brad Miller. Even then, Miller has to draw interest, and right now, he isn’t. Or, not to the level that Petrie would be willing to deal him anyway.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
...Actually Charlotte expressed interest in him
We could do some 3 team trade, even, dealing him off for expiring contracts and picks or rookies.
As long as G-Dub isn't coming back
I can live with it. Or Diop I suppose.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Too many of those items are directed at two weaknesses IMO
1> A true interior player primarily on D and some on offense.
As expressed in the ‘Bigger is better?’ thread and the basketball geek analysis, it looks like shoot %, rebounding, fouls and some other items are related to that could be adressed on both ends. Those can be addressed with a personnel change, Boozer or other. How else to explain that Orlando, which really plays with only one (a dominant one of course) interior player can be among the leaders?
2> lack of effort. How can that be addressed? Well, …..everyone knows what i think on that point. We need a leader.
So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,
Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii
So that's why you're high on Blake Griffin
You think he’s going to be Dwight Howard?
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
pook, have you seen him play? Pretty dang impressive.
"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley
But I didn't watch Derrick Rose play either
It’s not about watching a guy play.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Most teams get thier big time interior play from the PF spot
and I think JT can be a Center after a few more pounds. As for Griffin, he’s great, but positionally, I’d rather have Thabeet depending on how he plays/develops the rest of the season. If he looks like he’s Motumbo, trade down to get him maybe….
I’m not paid to make those decisions. (thank God)
If you get the #1, you have to take Griffin as of today and keep or trade him for the guy you want + next yrs #1 or something. Will we have that decision to make? I doubt it, looks like WA or Okl will finish last.
But Griffin is clearly the best PF in the country right now, D Lee with a shot + upside.
So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,
Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii
You can't win a championship without an allstar caliber PF/Center
All the top team contenders have three elite or near elite players on their rosters in addition to solid role players.
San Antonio -Parker,Ginobli,Duncan
Lakers-Bynum,Gasol,Bryant
Orlando-Howard,Lewis,Turkolou
Cleveland-James,Williams,
Pheonix-Stoudamare,Nash,Richardson,Hill
Houston-McGrady,Ming,Artest
Boston-Garnett, Rondo,Pierce
The Kings have maybe one near elite player in Martin. I don’t predict Hawes to be one of those players in the future. Maybe Thompson.
That means we need a point guard and a PF. Hawes/Thompson can fill the role of center but need we still need a strong PF. Griffin would be great but thats a long shot as I doubt we are going to get the #1 pick. That leads to picking a PG in the draft and trading for a all star PF.
Any ideas other than Boozer we might be able to pick-up????
Martin not 'near elite'
The Kings have maybe one near elite player in Martin.
I will give him some props, because he is clearly playing hurt and is missing some of his hops, which hurts him when he tries to finish.
But let’s face it: Kevin Martin is a one-dimensional player with a ton of weaknesses.
PLUS:
- He is a very efficient scorer because he draws a lot of fouls and is an excellent free throw shooter.
MINUS:
- For the most part, he hasn’t shown the ability to be an effective scorer in crunch time. As The Man, maybe this develops over time.
- He’s a poor ball handler (lots of turnovers).
- He’s not a very good passer.
- He’s not a good rebounder.
- He’s a terrible defender.
Elite players do more than score.
The key questions become: will Martin improve in the areas he’s weak in? If not, is he part of the future, even if you are not expecting him to be the first fiddle?
It’s probably going to take another season to sort out.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Jan 25, 2009 11:34 AM PST up reply actions
Wait so what your saying is that we are bad?
There now I've met the 75 word count. -pookeyguru
by moproblemz on Jan 20, 2009 4:39 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
NEWS FLASH!
seriously though, I’d cool the Bynum item, he’s still looking pretty ordinary most nights.
Cleveland: neither of those guys is a PF/Center, but they do have a good Center in Z.
Not that I disagree with the point NBN. Phx, barring a few ejections in the Western Finals, may have been the exception to the rule a few years ago. (not that I disgree with the point)
So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,
Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Jan 20, 2009 4:58 PM PST up reply actions
Rec'd for brevity
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
Nice post TZ
I’ve been thinking about this since the last game. The way we started the first quarter looked like we were the worst team in the NBA. I’m a regular reader of Wages of Wins and it’s editor Dave Berri posits here that we are the worst team in the NBA: http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/01/15/bad-days-in-sacramento-and-the-hawks-sort-of-soar/
I like his blog and read it weekly, I know that members of this site don’t like “stat geeks” but basketball is the one sport that best lends itself to statistical analysis and there is truth in the numbers though they don’t tell the whole story and paint an incomplete picture. The one thing about statistical analysis is that the stats are relative for all teams. As I have been looking at the team my question is not who do we trade but who do we keep. Brad Miller is statisically our best player but obviously not in our future.
I would think we keep Kevin at the 2, JT at PF, and Spence at 5 as back up center, cisco off the bench and maybe
e’ to see if he’s going to develop. I agre with LTTG that we need a floor leader who brings passion, fire, and who won’t settle for anything less than his teammate’s best. I think Griffin who I watched this weekend would bring that kind of leadership along with huge skills. I’m not sure that Thabeet brings the fire but like they say you can’t teach 7’-3".
We can’t rebuild until we finish tearing it down, with our record nobody is sacred and I’m praying GP has a plan. OKC is looking better and when Monta comes back the dub’s record should improve as well. There is a very good chance that we end up with the second worst record after the Wiz and even in this draft should give s someone ho GP can build around.
"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley
Best Sport for Statistical Analysis
First of all, I love “stat geeks”.
That said, I disagree with this comment:
…basketball is the one sport that best lends itself to statistical analysis and there is truth in the numbers though they don’t tell the whole story and paint an incomplete picture.
Emphasis mine.
I’m really glad you added that second part, which incidentally is also why I disagree with the first part. The key to using statistical analysis to determine the value of players, is to first isolate them from their team.
The nature of Baseball (Hitter vs. Pitcher) gives a much more accurate statistical representation than Basketball (or Football for that matter). Basketball has been making good strides, but simply doesn’t measure up at this point, in my opinion.
In short, baseball lends itself to statistical analysis of players much better than Basketball.
There are less people who totally "love" basketball as well
Look at the total #‘s of fans for MLB & NBA. If MLB hadn’t had such a god awful marketing posture for the last, oh, century, they would have an ubiquitous presence at the moment. Think about that for a moment. In an age where digital media rules, and you can be a fan of the team and watch as many games in say, Seoul, South Korea, as you can in Sacramento, CA, USA, MLB has lost their advantage there.
The NBA would have never got to the heights it did without Magic & Larry, but I think partly, some of that had to do with Larry being white. Name another league that is so constantly conceptualized (fair or not) as black, than the NBA?
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
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