Three Players
by SavageBeast on Oct 31, 2009 12:38 PM PDT
25 comments
Three players:
Player One is listed at 7-1, and 245 lbs. In one year of college play, he averaged 15 pts and 6.5 rebounds in 15 minutes in the PAC 10. In two years of NBA play, he averaged 13.5 pts and 9 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Player Two is listed at 6-11 250 lbs. In four years of college play, he averaged 16.5 and 9.5 in 32 minutes in the MAAC. In his first year of NBA play, he averaged 14 and 9.5 per 36 minutes.
Player Three is listed at 6-9 266 lbs. In three years of college play, he averaged 16 and 10 in 28 minutes in the ACC. In three years of NBA play he has averaged 16 and 9.5 per 36 minutes.
Player 1 has played a total of 150 NBA games. He is 21 years old. He shoots 46% from the field.
Player 2 has played a total of 84 NBA games. He is 23 years old. He shoots 49% from the field.
Player 3 has played a total of 84 NBA games. He is 25 years old. He shoots 46% from the field.
I think you know who these players are and where this is going, but more after the jump.
In case you didn’t figure it out, players one and two are Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson. Shock and Hawes. Our future. They are the 1-2 punch Petrie drafted out of nowhere. They are going to become Webber and Divac reborn. All we need to complete our 4-5 picture is a decent back up at each spot.
But then out of nowhere, we signed an overweight, injured, joke of a washed up player. The only reason we could possibly have signed him is because the Maloofs are cheap and May doesn’t cost much. It definitely couldn’t be because the coach thought he had a chance of real playing time—unless the studs got injured or had foul trouble.
Except, the starting center is not playing much like a center. He is not driving to the hoop. At 245 lbs, he gets man-handled by the big power centers like Bynum and Odom. He skipped Vegas. The power forward looked lost in the first couple of Vegas games, but then he came on strong. So strong, in fact, that he actually looked better at center than the center did. He is more muscular and although two inches shorter is at least five pounds heavier.
And, oh yeah, the overweight joke of a player. He dropped the weight. He looked good. He played well. In fact, he somehow managed to earn a spot in the starting line-up. He is currently shooting 60% from the field and 75% from the FT line. But he still sucks, right? He’s still a joke. Isn’t he?
Here’s where it gets a little confusing. JT is our starting four. We all know that. Noc was going to play some four, along with maybe Donte if things worked out. What we needed was a backup center. So when we drafted May, we assumed he was just an undersized center. Except, he is not playing center.
Looks at those weights and heights again. Yes, Hawes may gain some more weight. He’s young. But he is the lightest of the three players. He’s tall, but that has not translated into a ton of rebounds or points in the paint. The guy who plays most like a center on the defensive end is JT. Realizing that JT may well be our best center at this point, you have to ask yourself who is the better PF, May or Hawes? Or put another way, do you get more out of a Shock/Hawes 4/5 or a May/Shock 4/5? When you study the numbers, it is virtually a tossup. Hawes gives you height. May gives you bulk. And not in a bad way. This is 260+ pounds of pretty solid muscle. He is much harder to move in the paint, and his outside jumper is every bit as sweet as Hawes.
What is my point? Am I saying that Shock and Sandwich should be our 4 and 5 of the future instead of shock and Hawes? Am I suggesting Hawes should always come off the bench? Not at all. The season is young and so are the players. What I am suggesting is that we are far from rock solid at the 4 and 5 positions. We don’t know if Hawes can turn into a top ten center. We don’t know if JT can become an all-star. We don’t know if May will even be here next year. What I am suggesting is that all three of these players have not played enough NBA games to know what they can become. All three have weaknesses in their games. None of the three are a true smash-you-in-the-face, clog-up-the-lane kind of center. In short, any of the three could be starting for us three years from now, or none could.
My best guess right now is that JT has the best shot of securing a long term starting position. As for the other two, the clock is still ticking. But to suggest that May is somehow the weak link, or that PW is an idiot for starting him is completely unjustified by anything other than our own preconceived notions. Remember that those career NBA stats for May include a rookie year, an injured year, and an overweight year. He has never had a complete 80 game season to prove what he can do when he is healthy.
We can keep right on making May jokes—in fact it is almost a requirement that we do. But very quiety and methodically, May is setting out to prove that he is no joke.
(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)
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Good stuff SB, Rec'd for perspective
I like what we have up front and, though, I agree that against certain teams we may need an extra big guy to throw out there, I’m cool with running with this roster and let PW figure it out.
I’m not going to freak out because Hawes is coming off the bench, or because May is starting, or if JT is missing some shots around the basket, or really with any other questions surrounding our big men. These kids are who they are, and I’m more than willing to wait and let them develop and show this franchise what they are really worth. If it’s not now, then when? I’d much rather lose games now but truly learn what we really have with our young guys, than win but be unsure in what we need to address and how we need to get better.
The problem with finding out what we have is that we can’t really learn anything after summer league, or after preseason, or after two regular season games. From the stats, JT, Hawes, and even May have had OK careers so far. They may not have superstar potential but they have actually shown they can contribute in this league.
The key to me is that we finally have a coach that (looks like) will be here for a couple years and one that will implement an actual system. If this is truly the case, then we should be able to finally learn who could fit in ther long term plans. I still think we are missing certain things up front that our current players won’t be able to provide so I believe this will be addressed next year’s draft. But that’s next year and there’s no point in talking about it. Right now, what I’m gonna do is support these young guys that we have no matter what and at the end of the year come back and reevaluate what we have, what works, and what doesn’t work.
Welcome to Rebuilding. I, personally, have nothing to complain about
The future begins now...
by eduardo_m7 on Oct 31, 2009 1:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice post
I still prefer a starting lineup of Thompson and Hawes, but it is solely because I am (too?) focused on the future and not focused (enough?) on the current year. That is, I just don’t see Thompson and May as a future starting front line for the Kings, while I still hold out at least a little bit of hope that Thompson and Hawes could become that tandem.
Bottom line, I have nothing against May or Westphal – Hawes’ current malaise is of his own doing and it will be up to him (and only him) to work his way out of his current funk. It’s still early in both the season and Hawes’ careeer (one hopes) to write him off, but the meter is running.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Oct 31, 2009 1:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
eventually
I want to see that too, but I have no problem with making Hawes earn it instead of just handing it over.
by SPTSJUNKIE on Oct 31, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
With
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Oct 31, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other than Hawes shooting poorly
He has been doing decently otherwise. PW won’t give up on him.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Oct 31, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good points.
It’s working for the Kings right now and that’s all that matters IMO. May has done everything to the best of his ability and I applaud him for that. He’s earned the starting job and I think how potent the bench is when Spence is playing his best. So glad I never partook in the May jokes. We all deserve a chance at redemption.
Thanks for this. Rec’d fer sure.
33 Wins. Yeah, I said it.
by JETisKing on Oct 31, 2009 1:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
May's biggest problem (no pun intended) is his future
Let’s day he pans out 20 with 8 and 6. What about next year? Do you give him a contract? How many years, 5 seems too long for a guy that could revert to a pudgesicle. 3 with a team opt out. How much would you invest, knowing the risk.
Just asking because I’m sure there is a contract I could live with but at this point I don’t know what it would be.
Obviously if he doesn’t pan out we have no issue.
by ElRonToro on Oct 31, 2009 1:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe a 3 year 10mil
or 3 year 8 mil?
The future begins now...
by eduardo_m7 on Oct 31, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not worrying about that yet
thats way too far ahead.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Nov 1, 2009 9:58 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
The thing to remember with this year’s Kings is that so much is fluid. As fans, we look at our youngs and try to visualize them as the next Kings playoff team. But the truth is that very little is proven. Even after two full years, we don’t really know what we have in Hawes. Look at how slowly K-Mart took off. I can imagine many worse scenarios that May playing so well we want to resign him.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
by SavageBeast on Nov 2, 2009 7:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Couple things
I think Spencer Hawes missing VSL was good for the Kings. It got a chance for PW to see Donte play multiple positions (2, 3 & 4), and got a chance for JT to play alot of C which he had not done previously.
If Spencer is there, JT doesn’t play as much C. That’s not necessarily a bad thing for JT.
Spencer is playing poorly right now, and while I"m not enthused, it’s far too early to write him off. If he keeps playing poorly for a month, than I’m going to wonder if he can ever regain his confidence.
I like how May played last night. He wasn’t super flashy (except that oop pass to Mason at the beginning of the game), but he was efficient and grabbed a lot of boards. If he does that consistently throughout the game, I’ll be truly thrilled.
I don’t mind PW starting May because I think Shawes needs to earn his starting spot, and he is not out-playing May yet. That being said, I think May will eventually cough up the spot to Spencer in the next week because Spencer will finally put it together. This isn’t Kenny Natt changing his mind every other week about Spencer this time around. This is Spencer not exactly having adjusted to what PW wants him to do yet. I have confidence he can, and that he will.
If Spencer isn’t this team’s 3rd option, I fear that we are going to see a lot of JT 4-16 nights.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Oct 31, 2009 1:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
SB - as always, your contributions are well thought out and well explained
First off, the future is not now. Well, not really, so to kick around this discussion, again, is fun.
Hawes is the big issue here. May is playing well and without injury. He can do all of the things expected. I respect his commitment to his career. JT is well, JT. Even though the new guys – Evans, Casspi and Brockman – are new favorites, JT is a beast and a continued favorite. He brings it every night and as a fan that is priority number one. The best part of JT’s game this year is that he has improved. And that brings me back to the counterpoint on Spencer Hawes.
Incomprehensively, Hawes has not improved, and in the limited time he has spent on the court, has arguably regressed. It is difficult to assess as I am somewhat influenced by the cacophony of “Hawes sucks” posts that seem neverending this season. It may be that, as with any new boss, Spencer has not found the place where he fits. Maybe the ex-Trojan coach got hip pointered by Daddy Hawes. I don’t know and can’t even venture a reasonable guess. What I do know is that Spencer Hawes has smarts,talent and youth and a desire to succeed. It may take time. It may take a chance with another team and coach, but two games into the season, who can say?
by betweentheeyes on Oct 31, 2009 2:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
correction: maybe Uncle Hawes, not Daddy
1972 NBA Draft. First round #10 – Paul Westphal. 2nd round, #11 Steve Hawes (out of U Wash)
by betweentheeyes on Oct 31, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Funny how things change
20 years later 11th overall is a lottery pick in the NBA, and there are suddenly 27 teams instead of 10.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Nov 2, 2009 11:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So the question is
with Europe and more $/exposure are their 2.7x as many talented players entering the draft?
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
by SavageBeast on Nov 2, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing is perfect
The pool of talent is bigger now that European players are not viewed with skepticism by NBA teams as they were even a decade ago. Dirk Nowitzki changed that by himself. Yao Ming shattered the rest of it. Vlade Divac and Peja Stojakovic did more than enough to re-consider any philosophy where you close a pool of players off.
Even though Pau Gasol was actually drafted before Ming, I put him in the next generation (albeit the first set) where getting into the NBA was a real reality.
The reality has been that the NBA draft can be a screwy product, and obviously mistakes are made. Take 2001 which is a great example.
Here are the 5 players who I think have given the most to their teams: Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Pau Gasol, Joe Johnson and Mehmet Okur. (Tyson Chandler was also drafted, but I would put Okur ahead of Chandler in terms of total contribution. That’s me. It’s close.)
If you don’t include Chandler, 2 of those guys (Arenas—picked 30th and Okur—picked 38th) were drafted in the 2nd round. Parker was drafted with the last pick of the 1st round (28th). Johnson was picked 10th, and Gasol 3rd overall. (Tyson Chandler was picked 2nd.)
Still, 2001 was a highly screwy draft where a lot of the teams picked potential in the lottery. The actual draft winner was San Antonio because of Parker. In the long run, they got the most because they got the 2nd or 3rd best player in a draft where they selected last out of everyone.
The Grizzlies had a great draft that year because of Gasol, and this irritating Dukie named Shane Battier. What made the draft better was that the Grizzlies traded Shareef Abdur-Rahim to the Hawks for the rights to Gasol.
At the end of the day, it’s a matter of opinion. I don’t think the NBA has over-saturated it’s market, and it’s interestingly not very over-saturated either. It’s pretty balanced at the moment. But, if the NBA keeps expanding, and right now the league is thinking about how to save it’s business first & foremost, it will be under-saturated with talent. The last time this happened? The early 90’s where very few players picked high had quality years. You’ve heard of the big names like Gary Payton, Derrick Coleman, Larry Johnson, Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo, Shaquille O’Neal, Chris Webber, Penny Hardaway, and what not. (I could keep going. I just named 4 drafts worth of players who were top level/franchise players. And I’m sure I forgot somebody too.) Out of those drafts, how many of those players were guys who were ultimate winners and were a major reason that their team won a title?
Every single one of those drafts had a few foreign players go to college and the NBA. What’s changed is that foreign players will still play in US colleges, but many realize that it’s just as reasonable to be able to make the NBA by jumping from the Euro Leagues first.
Hell, an American kid named Jeremy Tyler made that decision. Whether he succeeds or not may prove to be how ultimately worthwhile the age limit is imposed in the 2011 CBA negotiations. (If he does succeed, you can bet blue chippers will be going over to Europe for 2 or 3 seasons. More than a few will droop out of HS just to get paid for 3 seasons and play at high level of basketball before entering the NBA.)
You’re question was simple SB. The problem is that the real solutions to the issue are very complicated, and I tried to keep it pretty simple. The explanation ranges a great deal wider than the one’s I’ve focused on, and it’s a bit complicated to go through it all. Maybe someday I will.
Yet, even then I spent what 1200 words writing a reply to a pretty reasonable question. And the answer is, after having looked at multiple drafts and how they turned out at the end of the day, is that any given draft will vacillate with how many quality players there are in each draft, how teams work with these players once they get onto teams, and how players develop as they get older. As Jerry Reynolds said, that’s the history of the draft. No franchise player in the history of the NBA has not been drafted. (Unless you want to call Ben Wallace that. I don’t.)
If you told people in 1996 that Kobe Bryant would be a top 15 NBA player of all time, there would have been a lot of people that would have called you a retard clown. (I doubt any of them would have worked for the NBA though. NBA teams knew he was going to be good.) Franchises don’t expect that out of players at 18/19/20 years old. What they hope at some point is that a player works his ass off to get to that point. And, all of them know there is maybe 2 or 3, maybe 4 or 5 of those guys in every generation. Maybe there is up to 10 of them, but at least half are greatly debilitated by injuries.’
Wish I had an answer, but I don’t. Sorry.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Nov 2, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Great response Pookey
Long but definitely worth the read. heck, it was practically a fan pot in itself. Rec’d.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
by SavageBeast on Nov 2, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Heh, that's how I roll
Thanks SB.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Nov 2, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Brockman
He’s quickly making this a four-man argument, and that’s good thing.
They are all going to get their share of minutes, and Westphal will probably go with the hot hand and the player who is giving the best effort for the most part. That means the bulk of the minutes will go to JT with the others playing 15-30 minutes a game.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Oct 31, 2009 2:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Your analysis is right on
So can anyone explain why PW played Brockman the entire 4th quarter and left May & Hawes on the bench.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
by HighTops on Oct 31, 2009 4:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Brockman was performing.
He was diving, blocking, rebounding, slapping at the ball and came pretty close to putting CP3 in the soprano section for life.
He showed heart and tenacity. He’s a guy that other teams are going to hate, hate, HATE to see come in, like Harpring or Bowen or Bell.
The draft lottery has reinforced my belief that there are not enough bad words in the English language.
by LeaguePassAddict on Oct 31, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He had 2 rebounds, 1pt and no assists in the 4th quarter.
I just think when we need to protect a lead, we need more than hustle guys on the floor. And, if the jest of SB’s post is correct, May or Hawes should have seen some minutes.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
by HighTops on Oct 31, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Think May will play better
as he gains experience and confidence. He has a very nice shot, his defense sucks, but whose doesn’t right now?
Should he be starting?
No.
But I don’t think its a permanent situation and I’m more concerned about Mason.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Nov 1, 2009 10:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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