On Desmond Mason's Defense
I have very little subjective observation of Desmond Mason's defense to fall back on. I was not a particularly devout connosseiur of Milwaukee Bucks basketball much of this decade, and I only got a few non-Kings Thunder games in 2008-09. Mason does have a solid defensive reputation, though.
What do the numbers tell us? If Mason will get a) minutes, or b) potentially starter's minutes on the basis that he brings something the team lacks, and it sure as Hades isn't individual offense because his individual offense is pretty terrible, then it must be defense, right? Has Mason been an objectively good defender lately?
* Last season with OKC, Mason had an unadjusted defensive plus-minus of -3.27, which means the Thunder's defense was 3.27 points per 100 possessions better when Mason was on the floor than when he was not. Unadjusted plus-minus is a bit tough to take, which is why we have adjusted plus-minus, computed by various folks but made exceedindly digestable by BasketballValue.com. Mason's total (offensive and defensive combined) adjusted plus-minus with OKC was +5.11, which is pretty damn good (second best to Kyle Weaver on the Thunder).
* In 2007-08, according to BV's figures, the Bucks defense was 1.56 points per 100 possessions better with Mason than without. (It should be noted the Bucks defense was still awful with the team's "best" defenders on the court -- 110 points per 100 possessions with Mason on the floor.) Mason's total adjusted plus-minus for the season was +1.07 points per 100 possessions, third best on the team (behind sub-rotation level Michael Ruffin and Andrew Bogut).
* Eli Witus works for the Houston Rockets as a statistical analyst. Before he got that gig, he ran the insightful Count the Basket. In one of Eli's projects, he took Dan Rosenbaum's adjusted plus-minus figures from the 2007-08 season and split them into offensive adjusted plus-minus and defensive adjusted plus-minus. He found that Mason finished that season with a DAPM of 2.2 -- the Bucks defense was effectively 2.2 points per 100 possessions better with Mason than without. This wedged Mason in the 71st percentile among small forwards, which is to say Mason's defense rated better than 71% of the NBA small forwards in 2007-08. (For what it's worth, by Witus's numbers, Kevin Martin rated as the league's third worst shooting guard defensively and Ron Artest rated as the league's fifth best small forward defensively. Martin was the No. 8 shooting guard offensively. Francisco Garcia rated rather poorly defensively, and Andres Nocioni rated just below average defensively.)
* 82games.com has fairly robust unadjusted on-off figures. The page for each player is rather self-explanatory: in the "on" column, there are the team statistics which stem from the minutes when the player was on the floor. In the "off" column, that's what the team did in the minutes the player was not on the floor. The "net" column registers the difference.
With Mason on the floor last season, OKC was:
- 3.4 points per 48 minutes better on defense.
- better at shooting defense by a 48.9%-52.3% margin (using eFG%).
- slightly more likely to block a shot.
- a better defensive rebounding team by a 73.8%-71.2% margin.
- slightly more likely to surrenders FTAs to the opponent.
- slightly less likely to force opponent turnovers.
But is this a product of not playing with OKC's worst defenders (who, according to defensive plus-minus were Kevin Durant and Jeff Green)? No, actually. Mason played a little over 1,000 minutes. Some 80% of those came in line-ups also featuring Durant. Nearly 75% of Mason's minutes came alongside Green. By simple deduction we can figure at least half of Mason's minutes came in line-ups which included both Durant and Green, by plus-minus OKC's worst defenders.
That also means, given Mason's favorable defensive plus-minus numbers, that in line-ups in which Mason played but Durant or Green did not, the OKC defense was better. That 20% of playing time without Durant could be against primarily bench players, but the other 80% alongside Durant is too much to ignore.
By the numbers, Mason is a good defender.
Of course, it takes more than one defender in the NBA. Unless Tyreke Evans starts and is a stunningly good defender as a rookie, and unless either Spencer Hawes or Jason Thompson makes a serious leap on defense, adding Mason to the starting line-up for defensive purposes isn't likely to make a major difference. And we haven't even discussed Mason's offensive issues, which are serious according to both box score statistics and offensive plus-minus.
We'll see how it shakes out, if Mason even starts or gets major minutes. While the numbers say he is in fact a quality defender, I'm not convinced he can shine up the Kings defense enough for anyone to notice.
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OK, this is the best breakout and breakdown I have seen on defense. Great stats!
Given this analysis, can we expect him to play whenever KMart is on the floor? Or maybe especially when Beno and KMart both play as Evans and KMart might not be too bad defensively as Evans help offset…
It should, however, be noted that KMart was playing on one ankle last season. He was showing much more defensive presence in the 5 practice games.
by MustangMBS on Oct 5, 2009 12:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t like this signing at first, but it’s hard to argue against Mason starting with those stats.
FIRE BRUCE BOCHY NOW!!!!!!
AND TAKE BRIAN SABEAN WITH HIM!!!!!
by 49er16 on Oct 5, 2009 1:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great analysis
I really hope KMart can stay healthy and show that he’s much better defensively when he is healthy, because otherwise he’s really got to go and we’ve really got to stop making excuses for him. Third worst in the League on defense is a horrible example for your vet to set.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
by Holmdel on Oct 5, 2009 1:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There may be a tremendous
team-wide impact on defense in a way that I’m not sure the numbers reflect. That is, they may or they may not reflect, but we don’t know without more information than the numbers.
Is he a defensive communicator? If so, there is valid reason to think that everyone, or many other ones, play better on that end of the floor when he is on the floor. That would be huge, and would explain the rocket he’s riding from fringe/may-not-make-the-roster to possible starter.
On offense he just needs to be active. Go for the offensive rebounds, keep your man busy, slide to an open spot when your man helps on the guards or bigs, help th PG out of trouble when he gets trapped.
Lower their expectations and rise to met them
by left hand on Oct 5, 2009 1:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Under the Zill logic of skepticism (i.e., our defense is so bad I doubt D-Mase can make any difference), he wouldn’t have made much difference with the crappy defenses in Mil or OK, either. But he did. I wouldn’t turn down a 2.2 point improvement in our team defense.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
by Holmdel on Oct 5, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Somewhat, but not totally
With Mason on the court, the Milwaukee defense was still 110, which is horrible. He did make a big difference in OKC, though, to where the OKC defense was about average (or slightly better) when Mason played.
by Ziller on Oct 5, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
big props on the post TZ
I’m glad to see that after your initial reaction you were still willing to take a look at the whole Mason issue objectively. I’m curious to hear if you think that there may but validity to left hand’s comment, essentially that a vet who will fit in well with the kids and who has a defensive mindset and who may communicate that well, will help Westphal’s emerging defensive focus? Sorry about the run on.
"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley
by Bluejohn on Oct 5, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice stats, over all good argument.
But I’ve still got some bones to pick.
1. We’re talking about a role player; despite the starting position there’s no reason that Mason should log more than 1,300 min over the season. So effectively we’re talking about a better defensive presence on the court for one third of each game. Thus the 2.2 point differential would be 2.2 / 3 = 0.733 per game. Which is slightly different than a default 2.2 off the top.
2. Even if we’re generous about Masons defensive skills and assume the 2.2 ppg, then we’re sitting at (according to last seasons schedule) winning 5 more games this year. Which puts us at 22-60. I can’t justify giving those 1,300 minutes to Mason over Greene and Casspi for that record, and I think that’s being generous.
3. While its possible to map the differential between the two seasons in wins-losses and also in defensive statistics, what it is impossible to map is the developmental loss to Greene and Casspi because they we’re not provided the minutes necessary to improve. But we can map that loss in the following seasons as those players either blossom for us at a later point, are traded and or let go and either flourish under some other team or go away completely.
4. I’m all for finding ways to build momentum going into the season, but on this issue I think what we’re looking at, as Ziller outlined in his first article, is a known quantity vs an unknown quantity. If I was a betting man (and I am), and we were betting on which path would lead to a better 2010-211 KINGS team, I’d put all my money on the unknown(Greene, Casspi) option. Absolutely willing to take a small loss with a big upside, instead of a push.
If yr not happy with the results, lower yr expectations.
by tokyo on Oct 5, 2009 5:36 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
As a generality
the ‘develop the kids’ argument has merit. But doesn’t there have to be a relative readiness? Some top-5 picks can’t get many minutes in a rotation because they may have a lot of future potential but are simply not close enough to ready today. I think that applies to both Greene and Casspi.
Enjoy the development at PF, C, and PG, and the quality at SG. Leave Westphal to his best judgment among the cast of not-quite’s at SF.
Lower their expectations and rise to met them
by left hand on Oct 5, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll let TZ rebut this
But my understanding is that a per 100 possession rating is supposed to clear up the differential between 16 and 35 mins a game (for instance). Maybe I’m wrong.
As far as the recognition that Casspi & Greene are the future, I believe that’s true. Except, if they aren’t ready to play today it may not make much difference to throw them into the future before they’re ready to contribute at the NBA level. Development is a tricky thing, and I’ve seen many opinions on it. I know the only way to develop players, though, are with the methods that a particular coaching staff/organization are comfortable with.
Until Paul Westphal proves otherwise, he has my full confidence.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Oct 5, 2009 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Players develop in practice
I think it is a misnomer that players need game time to develop. Players develop their skills and earn minutes in practice.
When players are simply given minutes to be developed, they seem to have a since of entitlement and may not work as hard as others. I don’t think there is anyone on our roster who is naturally gifted enough to be given minutes without having to work for them.
Ultimately, Greene and Casspi’s development growth and success is going to come down to their own work ethic.
by markdog333 on Oct 6, 2009 6:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will never understand playing young guys for the sake of playing them
If Greene and Casspi can’t beat out Desmond Mason, a guy pulled off the scrap heap, for the league minimum, that wouldn’t start for more than a handful of teams, for minutes by destroying him in practice, why should they play in real games?
Dé3 and Omri will show their ready to play in real games by beating an actual NBA player near the end of his career in practice; until they can do that, they have no business getting legitimate minutes in games, and giving them those minutes won’t develop them, because they aren’t ready to do anything useful with them yet.
Professional Hyperbole Slayer
by ForThree on Oct 6, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is merit to your position
but it comes into question when the abilities of the players are nearly equal. If the 33 year old vet is just slightly better than the rookie on a rebuilding team, what good does it do you to play the vet?
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Oct 6, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well stated.
But the only real competition among the SF’s is among three veterans. The two younsters are not in the conversation because “the abilities of the players”, or in other ways not directly related to their physical abilities, are not, evidently, “nearly equal.” That’s what the coach apparently sees, and that’s what I think I’ve seen.
Lower their expectations and rise to met them
by left hand on Oct 6, 2009 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considering we lost
13/15 games which were decided by 3 points or less, his defense combined with Tyreke’s could put us at around 30 wins this season.
Add some real coaching and some improved offense and we may win as many as 36 games this season.
It’s not the playoffs but it certainly is moving the team in the right direction.
by nothingbutnet on Oct 5, 2009 10:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Mason might be our version of
Shane Battier.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Oct 28, 2009 1:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Eep
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by section214 on Oct 28, 2009 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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