Four Factors Through Three Games

by Tom Ziller on Nov 1, 2009 9:56 AM PST in Numbers

I thought it'd be worth checking out how the Kings figure in the general offensive and defensive categories through the early going.

OFFENSIVE

Overall: 20th -- 101.1 points per 100 possessions, 4.4 points worse than league average.

Shooting: 25th -- .438 eFG%. Current league average is .491. God, I hope this improves.

Turnover rate: 14th -- 13.4%. League average is currently 14.1%. Expect league average to improve, and the Kings' mark to get worse as the big men come back to Earth.

Offensive rebounding: 4th -- 31.4%. League average is 25.8%. Credit Jason Thompson and Jon Brockman with this. I have no idea if the Kings can keep it up. The team was in the league's bottom third in this category last season.

Free throw rate: 21st -- .229 FTM/FGA. The Kings finished 5th in the league last year. The N.O. game (one FTA for JT and Kevin Martin combined) really skews this, I think. The team should finish top 10, barring catastrophic injury.

DEFENSIVE

Overall: 30th -- 114.8 points per 100 possessions. Surprise!

Shooting defense: 29th -- .563 eFG%. Again, league average is .491. Guh. The Warriors are the only team worse.

Opponent turnover rate: 14th -- 14.1%. If you had told me the Kings would force more turnovers than they'd make during any span of this season -- even through one quarter of play -- I would have accused you of insanity. But there it is: the Kings force more turnovers than they give up. I have no idea how this is happening, although somehow the data says the Kings have 23 steals through three games. I must have missed all but the floor-burn Tyreke Evans one.

Defensive rebounding: 11th -- 76.4%. I can't imagine this will last. I expect a low 20s finish. Big ups to Brockman, Spencer Hawes and ... Desmond Mason on the defensive glass early on.

Opponent free throw rate: 20th -- .274 oFTM/oFGA.

***

In conclusion: offense mediocre, defense atrocious. The Kings are still giving up too many open threes and too many easy layups while taking too many tough shots. But the rebounding has been much better and the turnover situation has been surprisingly good. We'll see how it plays out.

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Comments

So this is your idea of taking it easy?

The draft lottery has reinforced my belief that there are not enough bad words in the English language.

by LeaguePassAddict on Nov 1, 2009 10:00 AM PST reply actions

What you forget..

…is that TZ being a Dean Oliver acolyte is merely child’s play, and hence not work.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Nov 1, 2009 10:39 AM PST up reply actions

Ah the 4 factors

How I missed thee.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Nov 1, 2009 10:34 AM PST reply actions

...and substance returns to StR...

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Nov 1, 2009 10:59 AM PST reply actions

It's a relief isn't it?

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Nov 1, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions

Finally, meat to go with the sauce

Welcome Back Ziller

LIke flies at a manure plant, the site has been thick with opinions and critiques: it is refreshing to have some numbers to munch on.

It is a 3 game sample and I am willing to bet that the San Antonio game skewed the numbers decidedly against as did the first quarter of the OKC game.

The numbers confirm observation: the rotation on defense is horrendous and there is little shot blocking or lane clogging by the big men. Offensively, there are few “good” shooters sans Kevin Martin. Take his numbers out of the mix and whew!.

by betweentheeyes on Nov 1, 2009 11:01 AM PST reply actions 1 recs

Welcome back Ziller!

For what its worth, I think OKC at least had an above average shooting game against us. Our defense isn’t going to be good, but I think we’ll get better; its not completely hopeless like last year.

Professional Hyperbole Slayer

by ForThree on Nov 1, 2009 11:25 AM PST reply actions

do you think that defense is a team chemistry, team experience, NBA experience thing?

all factors that this Kings team is particularly lacking?

I expect the team to play tough and hard but to produce, to “gel” on the defensive end will take at least one long season if not many more.

by betweentheeyes on Nov 1, 2009 1:38 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks for this!

33 Wins. Yeah, I said it.

by JETisKing on Nov 1, 2009 11:40 AM PST reply actions

Overall Offensive rating is to be expected

New players & new system, so it’s going to take more than a month to get the rough edges smoothed out. We’re still a terrible 3pt shooting team with our top 2 shooters hitting only 35% & 27%. When Martin has the ball the offense looks the same as last year. The bigs move away from the paint, to open the lane, and Martin drives and shoots. No one moves because Martin seldom if ever passes once the starts his drive. And, even when Tyreke or whoever does kick out, they take the shot even if the defense rotates to them instead of making the 2nd & 3rd pass to get an open shot.

I do have a question, TZ. Are the Offensive rebound numbers based on the total available rebounds? Or, is it just because we’re missing so many shots that we have a higher number of chances than other teams?

Defensively, I don’t see much difference than last year. Players are still leaving 3pt shooters open to help even though they accomplish nothing with their help (Martin). When a player gets beat or someone leaves his man to help, others are slow to rotate.

I know it’s early and the sample size is small, but I don’t see much of an offensive system. Last year we had Martin & Salmon’s attacking the basket even when the lane was packed. This year we have Tyreke & Martin. The only difference I see is that Martin has moved from 1st option to 2nd option.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Nov 1, 2009 2:04 PM PST reply actions

Yes HT

The offensive rebound % is based off the total rebounds. It would be impossible to do it based off on actual opportunities, or if it was, it would take a lot of work.

If you look at a lot of team’s offensive rebound %, you’ll notice that it’s very low like that. Most of the rebounds for every team do come on the defensive end after all.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Nov 1, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions

I see improvement, or at least the potential of it

Rebounding and TO numbers are encouraging. 20th on offense, and I hasn’t seemed like we’ve been clicking at all, would be a 5 spot improvement on last season. On defense Basketball-Reference shows us with the same 114.8 but as tied for 29th with the Knicks, not 30th. So that would be up one spot. ;p

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Nov 1, 2009 2:39 PM PST reply actions

The player leading the Kings in assists per game so far????

Jason Thompson with 4 APG. I didn’t see that coming.

Ba-da

by Ba-Da Bing on Nov 1, 2009 3:28 PM PST reply actions

same here

I have been a little surprised when I look at the box score and see that. It is a cool stat if you look at it on a player level, crappy when it is on a team level.

by Hilton on Nov 1, 2009 5:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

JT and assists

Most people forget that JT started playing basketball at PG, but then grew so damned big. He has a good handle and can pass, especially for a 6’11" 255 lb. dude.

by MustangMBS on Nov 2, 2009 9:30 AM PST up reply actions

I just want to tell you guys who told me 3 games of preseason

was too small of a sample, that
You fuckers were right
my bad

by ElRonToro on Nov 1, 2009 9:35 PM PST reply actions

Bad defense

leads to selfish offense. Work on the D!

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Nov 1, 2009 10:03 PM PST reply actions

I may be an optomist,

but I think the defense will improve a lot. We were getting killed by the pick & roll plays, and I think it was mostly just poor communication. Both defenders were playing pick, leaving Parker and Ginobli with easy drives and jumpers. That was causing the other perimiter defenders to collapse.

That leads me to the offensive issues, and I don’t know if it is selfish basketball or lack of trust. The difference between the San Antonio offense and the King’s offense was painfully clear durint the game. First, San Antonio NEVER took contested long jump shots early in the shot clock. They always execute their offense first. Second, they always made the extra pass.

by markdog333 on Nov 2, 2009 7:35 AM PST reply actions

On the pessimistic side,

I’m not sure if Martin is a plus or a minus. I’ve been on both sides of the debate on this one. I hate watching him play because I know what he is going to do. If he doesn’t take the 3 when he first gets the ball, he is going to drive into his defender, rotate his arms to make contact, and throw the ball in the general direction of the backboard. I hate that he doesn’t try to make his shot after contact, and I hate that he doesn’t pass to open teammates when he draws another defender.

I like that he has a reliable outside shot and helps space the floor. I love his scoring efficiency. I’m just not sure that is enough…especially for this team. I do believe he would be a valuable asset on a better team.

Back to the hate though, I just hate reading his line sometimes. I don’t see how he, even when he has an on shooting night, can have such a bad +/- at times.

by markdog333 on Nov 2, 2009 7:49 AM PST up reply actions

Thanks TZ

For posting on stats with such a small sample size. It is what it is and that is can be informative. Good stuff.

by MustangMBS on Nov 2, 2009 9:33 AM PST reply actions

Oh, let it go already.

The draft lottery has reinforced my belief that there are not enough bad words in the English language.

by LeaguePassAddict on Nov 2, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions

Please let this go already

There are reasons he brought this up. (He posts 4 factors info throughout the season. It’s a nice way to measure progress.)

Mustang, if you like stats, you really should read Basketball on Paper (by Dean Oliver). Then you will realize how much YOU HAVE NO CLUE about stats.

Either way, I hate calculating this stuff, but I thought it was useful to see what the 4 factors stuff are since there is a reasonably high correlation. Oh, and Dean Oliver? He just happens to be a consultant for the Denver Nuggets.

(My point: There wasn’t any real conclusions drawn, but the stats back up the observations.)

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Nov 2, 2009 11:19 AM PST up reply actions

LOL

Comparing analysis from 3 regular season games versus 1 preseason game is quite different.

Desmond Mason - Untied the balloon in Colorado, forged Obama's birth certificate, and ruined the careers of Omri Casspi and Tyreke Evans.

by otis29 on Nov 2, 2009 12:01 PM PST up reply actions

Maybe you should show the newb's what a broken in StR saddle looks like Otis LOL

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Nov 2, 2009 12:40 PM PST up reply actions

Jeez..

I was thanking him for providing such useful information. There is nothing wrong with what he has posted in this article and my thanking him. You guys should get off this already.

Give it a rest people.

by MustangMBS on Nov 2, 2009 1:26 PM PST up reply actions

Only reason I brought it up was because you mentioned the sample size (and that's the only reason)

I’m not calling you an idiot or anything else.

You got one thing right:

I was thanking him for providing such useful information

Yup. No question. And, get used to it.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Nov 2, 2009 1:46 PM PST up reply actions

Yes

Expressing positivity about information that is helpful and information can’t be bad. And, yes, thanking somebody for useful information was what I did. I do know that this is what I did.

I would also say that my statement below was correct as well. So, maybe that is two things I got right.