A Kings Fan's Guide to the Salary Cap 2009 edition

by ForThree on Nov 25, 2009 1:10 PM PST

This guide exists because I wanted to figure out what our free agent possibilities were for the next few years under various scenarios and decided to subject the rest of you to my inane ramblings. It also helps that I am pissed off I have to work today and Friday which has motivated me to be more productive in terms of FanPosts than actual work.

First, some basic assumptions:

1) Next year's salary cap, as well as the year after, will be equal to this year's cap: $57,700,000. Yes, I know its rumored it might go down next year, I'm not buying it unless Stern is as good at hiring CPA's to cook the league books as he is at hiring corrupt [redacted] fans to be officials.

2) The Kings will not, under any circumstances, pay the luxury tax in our lifetimes.

3) The league will not have a lockout or other labor strife and the future salary system will be something resembling the current system. Yes, this is hopelessly optimistic, because I'm sure as soon as we look like we might be good there will be a season ending lockout, but if we don't have this assumption we can't speculate, and what fun is that? We all know the reason Al Gore invented the Internets was so random idiots like myself that know nothing about what they are talking about can speculate on useless topics like professional basketball salaries.

Second, the credit:

This probably should have gone first, but hey, I'm a heartless jerk. All of the information that is correct in this FanPost is from ShamSports.

Third, the disclaimer:

This post will exist only long enough for pookey to find it and write a good version. The over-under on errors pookey will find in this post is twelve. I'm taking the over.

---

So where are we heading into next year if we do nothing?

2010/2011

If we make the qualifying offers to Sergio ($2.338mil) and Brockman ($932k) we'll be at $40.6mil in salary with 11 guys under contract. Throw in a #1 pick at $3mil (less than Tyreke) and we are about $14.1mil under the cap to sign 0-3 guys.

That means we're not in any danger of signing any of the max guys this summer (not that people thought we would be). $14million should be a hell of a lot of money though for say a $9mil/year free agent and a $3mil or so short contract reasonable bench guy and our 2nd round pick.

2011/2012

Honestly, this season is damn similar to 2010/2011 assuming we keep everyone that's on the team now. Of course, presumably we'll have another #1 pick, call that guys salary another $3 mil, but if we let Sergio walk that almost balances it out.

So what does it mean?

If we do nothing, you can expect either this summer or next to be able to add one mid-tier $8-10mil kind of guy either via signing or a trade. But...you only get one, and whoever that guy is probably will be the last one for a while. After 2011/2012, our young guys will begin needing to get paid, so its safe to assume we won't have a lot of cap space then.

What other options do we have?

Ahh, the Noc and Beno question. These guys make between $6 and $7mil each in the next two years. If we can get rid of one of them, our cap space goes from about $14mil to over $20mil. Suddenly we have serious money to throw around. I'm in the camp that says we won't get a top tier guy to come here easily, but I also believe money talks. If one of these guys are movable with out taking on salary, you have to like being in a position to spend the money on an expensive free agent or a trade. Now, of course, we have no idea what the Maloofs appetite would be to spend $$$ but a $14mil guy and a $4mil guy is different than $9mil and $3mil.

You guys know I've been willing to get rid of Nocioni since he got here, I'm still in that camp, and think its at least possible, because the guy has been playing well most of the time.

As for Beno, yes he's played great, but if he's ever able to be moved, he has to go. His contract after this year is: $6.47mil/$6.92mil/$7.37mil...its horrendous, he has to go if we can figure it out.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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Comments

Not being critical cuz Lord knows I know less than you

but have you included the cost of extending Spencer in the 11/12 season and Jason/Donté the following season. The only reason I include them is the FO has to have cap room to sign them. As I understand it the cap doesn’t preclude you from resigning your own players but as you resign your own players you still are liable for paying the lux tax. If the cap does go down that would indicate to me that we don’t have all that much room.

"I make love to pressure" - Stephen Jackson

by Bluejohn on Nov 25, 2009 2:16 PM PST reply actions

When Spencer needs a new contract

Nocioni will have disappeared, unless we pick up his option, which isn’t happening. After that, no I didn’t look out to JT and then Tyreke’s contracts.

And yes, if the salary cap goes down significantly, we’ll have a lot less space.

Professional Hyperbole Slayer

by ForThree on Nov 25, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions

That could be enough offset

and I’ll let Pookey deal with the cap holds and all that stuff. My point was, (and I don’t know the answer) is how does the front office account for future extensions? Let’s say that JT’s first year extension pays him $7 mil and Donté signs for the full MLE, say $5 mil. That means that in the 12/13 season the King’s salary for those 2 players is going to increase by $9 mil. My question is then: Knowing that, how much can the FO really pay for a free agent in the summer of 2010? I don’t know the answer but I’m guessing it has to have some effecton the amount they are going to pay free agent (s). Good post ForThree.

"I make love to pressure" - Stephen Jackson

by Bluejohn on Nov 25, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions

The Salary Cap & Players Salaries are tied to the BRI

The BRI “Basketball Related Income”, is the basis for Salary Cap (51% of BRI), Luxury Tax (61% of BRI), and Players Salaries (57% of BRI). So, if the Cap goes down it’s because the BRI went down, and therefore the Players share of the proceeds goes down. And, the value of the contract that players can expect ot get should go down.

So, if the Salary Cap goes down, other teams, even those in a Major markets, need to be considerably under the Cap to be able to match what the Kings can pay. Therefore the Kings won’t have to match the type of contract offers made in the past when the BRI & Caps were rising.

Because the BRI was lower than expected in 2008/2009, the players paid back $220M to the owners. The Kings got back $6.4M from their players.

There is a danger is signing a major FA, or even trading for one if it uses up all of our cap space. The danger is that teams usually need to give away talent to clear salary and create cap space (see Okafor trade for an example). So, if we had no cap space, and only had bad MLE contract to trade, we wouldn’t be able to trade them for cap space. Therefore we might have to pay the Luxury Tax to resign our rookies, until the MLE contracts expire. Or, we might have to give away one of our young pieces, for cap space, to keep under the Luxury Tax.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Nov 25, 2009 3:05 PM PST up reply actions

This is based on the current CBA

This is from Coon’s CBA FAQ

The current CBA has been in effect since July 2005, succeeding the previous agreement which was in effect from 1999 to 2005. The agreement will expire following the 2010-11 season, although the league has the option to extend it through the 2011-12 season. The league must exercise its option to extend the agreement by December 15, 2010.

So, alot of this can change if a new CBA goes into effect in 2011 or 2012.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Nov 25, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions

I'll play

I have some time to kill before I’m done for the day so why not right?

I think there needs to be some additional assumptions on top of yours:
1. Even if it is possible, no mega- or semi-mega demanding max salary will sign in Sacramento
2. If a borderline star does come to Sacramento, there will need to be some Vlade Divac type of situation, i.e., overpaying to come to play for the Kings.

Given my assumptions above and your assumptions of cap room that I’ll just go ahead and assume are pretty much correct, is there anyone here the Kings should try and spend $8-10 million on in 2010? I just scanned the list, but David Lee and Carlos Boozer are the only two that even come close to that criteria. And if I’m the Kings, do I want to pay starter level money for either of those two or Jason Thompson to be a sixth man? On top of that, do I think Donte Greene is a 3/4 or 2/3 or 2/3/4? Now perhaps the last question is answered during this season and may be superfluous, but I think making a major money acquisition is probably not likely. Above that, I’d posit that it probably isn’t in the best interest of the team either. Maybe a “glue guy” that is <$5 mil and more skilled than Ime Udoka, would be the best bet here…

2011, as Bluejohn notes above, brings more major questions. This shows Spencer Hawes’ qualifying offer at about $4 mil. If the Kings want to sign Shawes to a longer term contract, which I’m going to assume they will, the first year salary will be likely higher than the $4 mil qualifier. For our purposes, let’s say it’ll be a first year salary of $7 mil (yes, this may be high). Given this and the two rookie salaries in the original post of roughly $6 mil, the total salary allotted for 2011/12 with all options taken sits at about $50 mil. Put $4 mil for “glue guy” signed in 2010 and cap room is pretty much gone.

All that for this – if I’m the Kings I most certainly don’t put much effort toward signing anyone near $10 mil in the 2010 offseason. If anything, I keep that cap room and hope against hope for the ability to use the existing contracts you mention (Nocioni, Udrih) and cap space to land a mega or semi-mega star. If it doesn’t happen, then you are no worse off, fielding a youthful club that could become better and hopefully aren’t losing money. If it does, well golly, wouldn’t that be nice?

by towndunce on Nov 25, 2009 3:25 PM PST reply actions

I think the key there is Luxury tax

Not the soft salary cap. Assuming the team is of playoff caliber and an arean is in the works I don’t doubt we’ll be over the cap (but still under the tax) come 2011/2012.

That allows more room to re-sign our JTs etc..

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Nov 25, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions

I'm going to disagree with assumptions #1 and 2

I am sure the cap will go down some….not to 52 mil which is worse case scenario, but revenues are down at least 2% which will drop it a million. #2, the Maloofs will go into luxury tax if we have a legitimate chance of a title,
Actually, I will be amazed if there isn’t a lock out.
And your right, pookey will jump all over this even if your 99% correct. He must be on the road driving to family.

by ElRonToro on Nov 25, 2009 4:35 PM PST reply actions

Oh, sorry

you said what I said more or less

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Nov 25, 2009 5:00 PM PST up reply actions

The new salary cap appears to me based on how league revenues have declined over this and last season

will probably fall in the mid range between the existing cap and the worst case scenario. I have mixed feelings about whether the owners will force a lock out or not. On one hand the PR fallout from any lock is not well tolerated by the fans. On the other, half the teams are losing money and a lock out would be an economic boon to them. A new CBA with shorter and possibly less guaranteed contracts is also in the owners interest. Part of the art of “capology” is due to the complexity of the CBA and hence the trading of players contracts who are no longer playing etc to make trades work.

I haven’t read anything about a hard cap and don’t know if that’s something the owners are seeking or not. There has been a lot of talk from the smaller market teams about some enhanced form of revenue sharing that addresses their needs better than the lux tax does

The other major issue us that based on what we saw this past summer, player’s salaries are going down. Both Ron Artest and Trevor Ariza both signed for the full MLE. Shawn Marion went from $14 mil to roughly $7 mil. Many of this record 2010 free agent class are going to sign for a lot less money than they or their agents were planning on. It also looks like most of the restricted free agents are going to sign for their qualifying offers or risk having their rights renounced. Many players in fact may be renounced outright with their teams hoping to resign them at a lower rate.

So ElRon, this is my long winded way of saying, I agree with you. Between the cap going down and a new CBA it’s difficult to project what will be happening in the NBA’s future by looking backward.

"I make love to pressure" - Stephen Jackson

by Bluejohn on Nov 25, 2009 5:21 PM PST up reply actions

Good job 4-3

You picked the one day where I can’t get on and type a complicated response. (You did this on purpose. I know you did. I’m coming to get you buddy.)

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

Oh, hes in the laegue two and Jayson Thomson and that Boggins dude on Milwokee, and Occur for the Jizz. Its a talented laegue.--Kfan in Korea

by pookeyguru on Nov 25, 2009 8:06 PM PST reply actions

Lol

mostly I just wanted to inspire you.

Professional Hyperbole Slayer

by ForThree on Nov 25, 2009 9:10 PM PST up reply actions

Sorry not inspired mayne

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

Oh, hes in the laegue two and Jayson Thomson and that Boggins dude on Milwokee, and Occur for the Jizz. Its a talented laegue.--Kfan in Korea

by pookeyguru on Nov 27, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions