Have the Kings improved since the start of the season?

by HighTops on Dec 13, 2009 9:36 PM PST

Disclaimer: Post was written before the Minny game.

The Kings have played 21 games, or ¼ of the season. So, I decided to try and find out if we’re getting any better. So here are some facts. I compared how we fared against our opponents in several categories during the 1st 10 games of the season and the last 10 games.

First 10 games Last 10 games Improvement?

Wins 5-5 4-6 No

2nd Chance PTs 6-4 6-4 Tie

Steals 6-4 4-5 No

Rebounds 5-3-2ties 5-5 Tie

Fast Break PTs 1-9 4-6 Yes

Pts in Paint 4-6 6-3 Yes

FG% > 45% 4-6 9-1 Yes

FG% > 50% 0-10 6-4 Yes

TO’s 4-6 2-8 No

So, we improved in Fast Break Pts (offensively & defensively), Pts in the Paint, FG% greater than 45% & greater than 50%. Even though we didn’t improve in 2nd Chance Pts or Rebounding, both categories have been a positive throughout the season.

So using 2nd Chance PTs, Pts in the Paint, TO’s & FG%, we can see that our offense has gotten better and more efficient as the season progressed. Defensively, our Steals are down, and although our Fast Break Pts are improving it’s still a negative. Offensively the greatest area in need of improvement is TO’s. Defensively the greatest need in defending the Fast Break.

One promising area, that a lot of people were concerned about is rebounding. Rebounding seems to be a positive this year. We have out rebounded our opponents 10 to 8 with 3 ties through 21 games. And, more importantly we have had more 2nd chance pts than our opponents 13 to 8. Who needs a sticking 3rd big?

Scoring by Quarter: Which quarters did the Kings win? The numbers represent the number of games the Kings won that quarter, followed by the number of games won by our opponents, and the third number is a tie.

1st Qt 2nd Qt 3rd Qt 4th Qt

First 10 games 2-7-1 6-3-1 5-4-1 4-5-1

Last 10 games 2-7-1 6-4 7-3 8-2

Total 4-14-2 12-7-1 12-7-1 12-7-1

So, based on the chart the Kings got outscored in the 1st quarter 14 to 4 games this season. And,

all season long we have dominated the 2nd & 3rd quarters. But, in the last 10 games we have been extremely strong in the 3rd & 4th quarters. Specifically, improving our scoring in the 4th quarter from a negative 4-5-1 to a dominant 8-2 in the last 10 games.

Some interesting stats from the Kings game day notes:

The Kings are 7-0 when leading at the half

The Kings are 1-10 when losing at the half

The Kings are 9-4 when leading going into the 4th

The Kings are 0-8 when trailing going into the 4th

Over the last 10 games the Kings have won the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter. But, they really haven’t figured out how to get off to a good start. If they can make up the 1st quarter deficit in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, they seem to be figuring out how to finish even if the wins aren’t coming, yet.

My analysis is that the Kings need to slow down the pace in the 1st quarter, to limit TO’s, limit possessions, work on getting higher percentage shots, and get back on defense to limit easy fast break points. Thereby, limiting the deficit that they are going to have to make up in the 2nd & 3rd quarters. The offense is definitely improving but the defense needs some work.

So, the answer to the question, “have the Kings improved since the start of the season?” is an emphatic Yes, even if the wins don’t show it yet. Let’s hope the defense starts to come around as effectively as the offense has.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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+1 Excellent

by MustangMBS on Dec 13, 2009 10:29 PM PST reply actions

Very nice read

The progress that you show is encouraging

"Even a fool is counted wise when he holds his peace; When he shuts his lips, he is considered perceptive." Proverbs 17:28

by kwill on Dec 13, 2009 10:36 PM PST reply actions

HT

Do you have a win /lose % for the teams that we played as of the date we played them?

"Even a fool is counted wise when he holds his peace; When he shuts his lips, he is considered perceptive." Proverbs 17:28

by kwill on Dec 13, 2009 10:38 PM PST reply actions

No, I didn't go into it that deeply,

But, with such a small sample size, I’m not sure it would have added much more to the accuracy. Win % is such a volitile number. We could have beaten a playoff team early in the season, who had a poor winning % because they had played 3 games against other division or conference leaders. The numbers would have shown that we played a team with a 0% winning percentage when in actuallity they were a top 4 playoff team.

I can tell you what the winning percentage is now. The percentage of the teams we played in the 1st 10 games is .471 & the last 10 games is .446. But if you adjust for the fact that we played NJN who have a .083 percentage the last 9 teams average .486. So, if your asking to find out if the last 10 games were an easier schedule, the answer is Yes & No.

We were 1-1 with OKC in the 1st 10. And, 1-1 with NOH in the last 10. We won a game to Mem in the 1st 10 and lost to them in the 2nd 10. And, we lost to the Spurs in the 1st 10 & the 2nd 10. There are other factors besides winning % to explain why the improvement in offensive effeciency didn’t translate into more wins in the last 10 games.

What the numbers (FG% & 4th QT pts) do seem to indicate is, that our young team is learning how to close out games. Which should translate into more wins, if they can stop putting themselves into a hole in the 1st quarter.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Dec 14, 2009 12:31 AM PST up reply actions

Very interesting

Thanks for the reply. Good point about the winng % at the begging of the season. I guess I had a brain Musselman (fart)

"Even a fool is counted wise when he holds his peace; When he shuts his lips, he is considered perceptive." Proverbs 17:28

by kwill on Dec 14, 2009 1:27 AM PST up reply actions

Hmmmm, numbers

I was pretty sure we were getting better :)

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Dec 13, 2009 11:38 PM PST reply actions

Good Post

And that's wassup.

by Sacramento_Strong on Dec 14, 2009 8:48 AM PST reply actions

Turnovers

I think we haven’t improved in this area mainly because we’re passing more, trying to do more, playing a slightly more complex game than in the first month of the season.

I see us getting better here over the next few weeks. Certainly we have had fewer of the “mental error” types of turnovers recently.

StR Token Female

by LeaguePassAddict on Dec 14, 2009 9:18 AM PST reply actions

TO's from being aggressive are easier to live with.

Here’s an interesting stat from the Kings Game Notes:
The KIngs are 6-6 in games after committing 15 or more turnovers
The Kings are 4-6 in games after committing under 15 turnovers

We have actually won more games when we commit more to’s. Not that I would advocate taking more chances.

I agree with your take on the type of TO’s. In the early part of the season, we were turning the ball over just trying to hand the ball over to each other. Now, with increased playing time by Sergio, some of the to’s are from aggressive lighting quick passes. But, some of the to’s are from bad spacing, and players standing and waiting for the pass instead of moving toward the ball.

But, that’s not to say that there isn’t a lot of room to improve. We’re still making stupid cross court passes, passing into a crowded paint when a pass to the corner is safer, and the ever popular charging into a double/triple team under the basket.

One thing about the previous stats. More important that total to’s is pts off of to’s. That’s why I can live with a turnover on a long outlet pass. Because, most of your team is already back on defense when the ball is turned over. Where as, getting trapped under your basket and threwing a pass out to the top of the circle, can lead to a steal and a uncontested break away.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Dec 14, 2009 12:41 PM PST up reply actions