With or without Oden, Portland is a pretty damn good team.

This is in no way an attempt to replace TZ's excellent game Previews.   I've been posting some of my thoughts in those excellent Previews, but my comments seem to be getting longer & longer, and seemed inappropriate for comments.   So, here are my thoughts about the Portland game.

With a record of 14-11, they are better at home (8-4), but they’re only slightly worst than .500 on the road (6-7).   Since Oden got hurt in the Hou game, which they won at home, they are 1-3 on the road.   But, it took MIL 2 OT’s to beat them, or else they would have been .500 on the road without Oden.

If there is any weakness in their record, it might be whom they have beaten.   I’m not one to devaluate any win in the NBA, but here’s the facts for your examination.   The Trailblazers only have 4 wins against upper echelon teams.   They lost to ATL twice, Cle, Den, Mia, Utah, went 2-1 against Hou, and beat SA & OKC.   That’s 4-7 against other playoff teams.

Who did they beat to get to 14 wins?   Besides the 4 already mentioned, POR beat MIN 3 times, split with MEM, beat NJN, IND, NOH, CHA, DET, & CHI.   That’s 10 wins against sub .500 teams.   Plus they lost to NYN, GSW, MEM and MIL

So they have a 36% winning percentage against playoff caliber teams.    And, a 71% winning percentage against sub .500 percentage teams.   Unfortunately, the Kings fall into the latter category.   So, winning 67% of their home games and 71% of their games against teams comparable to the Kings, it wouldn’t seem that we are favored to get our 2nd road victory.

But, don’t give up hope.   Players win ball games not statistics.   So, lets look at the players.   As I mentioned earlier, Portland lost Oden 5 games ago.    With Oden they were 12-8 or a .600 winning percentage.   Without Oden they are 2-3, or .400 winning percentage.   But, if they could have pulled out the double OT game at MIL they would have still been .600.

Before Oden’s injury the team shot 45% FG%, 35% 3P%, 11 ORB, 42 TRB, & 96 ppg

Since Oden’s injury the team shot 43% FG%, 34% 3P%, 11 ORB, 42 TRB, & 96 ppg

What’s happened is that Przybilla has stepped up and rebounded exceptionally well.   Also, Roy, Aldridge, & Miller have picked up their scoring.   Roy is taking almost 25 FGA’s per game, and Aldridge & Miller have upped their attempts to 15 per game.   It looks like Portland might be able to continue without Oden, without skipping a beat.

It comes down to the match ups.  Spencer never matched up well against Oden, but I believe he should be able to hold his own against Przybilla on the boards, as should JT against Aldridge.   And, Beno is shooting as well as Blake did against us last year.   It’s really going to come down to one thing.   How do we defend Roy & Aldridge?

The big question is ‘Will PW start Donte at the 2?’   Most of the 2’s Donte’s had to defend weren’t of the caliber of Brandon Roy.   There’s no way Donte is quick enough to stay in front of Roy & if he plays off him Roy is good enough to shot over him.   Of course the match up most people want is Tyreke on Roy.   The only problem is that Roy has 3 years of experience over Tyreke, and that might be enough to win the battle.   And, I’m not sure that Beno can win the battle at PG against Blake, Miller & Bayless.   My biggest hope is that Sergio punishes Portland for giving up on him, but my biggest fear is that he will try too hard and fail miserably.  

Aldridge is another problem.   Aldridge does most of his offensive damage away from the basket, shooting jumpers on 64% of his shots.   But when he does score inside he has an eFG% of 61%.   My gut tells me that JT isn’t the one to defend Aldridge away from the basket.   I just see foul trouble written all over this match up.  

If PW starts Donte and the 2, and Donte can hold Roy to 25 pts or less, then we have a chance.   But, my best guess is that Roy kills us, and goes off for 40.   Plus I think we’re going to need Donte to help at the 4.   Unlike in the Minny game where Brockman & Thomas could defend in the paint, they won’t be much help defending away from the basket.

I’d start Beno, Tyreke (sg), Noc, Donte, & JT.   If Tyreke gets into foul trouble I’d move him back to PG, and use a rotation of Omri & Udoka to defend Roy.   If we could compete on the boards with that line up, I’d stay with a 3 big rotation of JT, Donte & Spencer as much as I could.

But, PW likes to reward players for past performances and effort, so I see the same line up as last game returning, Tyreke, Donte, Noc, JT & Spencer.   I think we’ll keep it close, but foul trouble, and big time scoring from Roy and Aldridge will win the game for POR.  

Plus the Blazer’s bench may be better than ours.

I see it going 98-90 Blazers with the Blazers winning the rebound battle.   But, if somehow Tyreke can offset or neutralize Roy, the winning streak continues.  

GO KINGS.