How much are the Kings players worth?

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 15, 2009 11:52 AM PST

I wrote a post the other day assessing Beno’s salary value: Here it is:

If the average player makes about $5.85 million a year and there are 15 players on each roster and the average player thus plays 16 minutes a game, would it be fair to conclude that a guy who makes $5.85 million and plays 16 minutes a game with a (so they say) average PER of 15 is fair value?

If so, how much is Beno worth playing 30 minutes a game with a PER of 17.3?

If X / $5.85M = 30*17.3 / 16*15, X = $12.65M a year.

So is Beno a bargain?

After thinking about it a bit I tweaked the formula to include the team’s winning percentage. My rationale is that it’s harder to get playing time on a good team than it is a bad team.

I started thinking about the Kings players stack up and what they are worth this season and what they were worth last year.

The basic stats (minutes played, PER) come from Basketball Reference. Again, here’s the formula:

X (Player’s Salary Value) / $5.85 million = Minutes per game X PER X Team’s Winning Percentage / Average of 16 minutes per game X Average PER of 15 X Average Team Winning Percentage of .500

Injuries hurt a player’s value, so instead of using minutes played per game the player played in, I used minutes played for all the team’s games.

I eliminated all players who were not with the team for the entire season just to make things a little easier to calculate.

Here are the findings:

2008-09 Kings Salary Values (Team Winning Percentage of .207)

* Kevin Martin, $4,600,000

* Jason Thompson, $3,939,000

* Spencer Hawes, $3,614,000

* Beno Udrih, $3,436,000

* Francisco Garcia, $3,427,000

* Donte Greene, $464,000

* Kenny Thomas, $67,000

2009-10 Kings Salary Values (Team Winning Percentage of .455 in 22 games)

* Tyreke Evans, $14,330,000

* Jason Thompson, $13,367,000

* Beno Udrih, $10,466,000

* Spencer Hawes, $8,773,000

* Omri Casspi, $7,279,000

* Andres Nocioni, $6,800,000

* Kevin Martin, $5,331,000

* Donte Greene, $5,219,000

* Sergio Rodriguez, $5,158,000

* Kenny Thomas, $2,218,000

* Jon Brockman, $2,179,000

* Sean May, $613,000

* Francisco Garcia, $0

TOTAL: $81.12 million (does not include Udoka and Mason)

Kevin Martin’s numbers are hurt by his injury problems. If you gave him as many minutes as Tyreke this year and he played at the same level he displayed in his five games, his salary value would be $19,284,000.

It appears the Kings are getting good value for the most part. Hawes’ numbers may be the biggest surprise.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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Comments

i think that is a good gauge of who is the most valuable to the team

Also, you should become a sports agent and sign Evans, Thompson, Beno and Casspi. You could make a lot of money if you got those figures for them.

Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut

by Ice_9ine on Dec 15, 2009 12:22 PM PST via mobile reply actions

also, doesnt this tell us that maybe Casspi should get more time?

Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut

by Ice_9ine on Dec 15, 2009 12:23 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

Interesting coolcat but I think there's a major flaw

worth isn’t linear. Your own sig makes the point perfectly.

Players that are significantly better than the norm aren’t worth somewhat more than average players, they are worth multiples of average guys.

You need to take your calculations, but apply them to a scale that grows very slowly up to a PER of 14 or so, slightly faster from 14-17, much faster from 17-22 and is parabolic at 22+. If you did that, I think you’d get a more accurate picture of what you are trying to get at.

Professional Hyperbole Slayer

by ForThree on Dec 15, 2009 1:17 PM PST reply actions

+1

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

Oh, hes in the laegue two and Jayson Thomson and that Boggins dude on Milwokee, and Occur for the Jizz. Its a talented laegue.--Kfan in Korea

by pookeyguru on Dec 15, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions

You may be right

But I think this formula covers that pretty well.

You’re taking PER and minutes played to measure the star power and also rewarding them if they play on a winning team. LeBron plays more than twice the number of average minutes I used and has almost twice the average PER of 15.

So the average guy has PER X MInutes of 240 and LeBron has PER X MInutes of 1,158 — almost five times the value of an average player, and that’s before adding in the team factor. So he has a salary value of $28.23 million before adding in the team factor.

Add in the team’s winning percentage of .708, and that pushes him up to $39.97 million — almost seven times more valuable than the average guy.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 15, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions

Actually coolcat, I think TZ did a post awhile back on this based on an article Tom Friedman (?) wrote

and as I recall the amount he came up for LBJ was fairly similar to yours so maybe your formula is not that far off. It’s hard to know how the new basketball economics are going to affect salaries going forward but I would think that Spencer’s is probably about what he’ll get paid when/if (almost certainly) he’s extended. I’m a shameless homer but I think JT is going to get LMA type money. Interesting exercise.

"I make love to pressure" - Stephen Jackson

by Bluejohn on Dec 15, 2009 4:08 PM PST up reply actions

I do think its interesting

you project Kevin at worth more than $1mil per game he played.

Professional Hyperbole Slayer

by ForThree on Dec 15, 2009 5:49 PM PST up reply actions

The salary figure is annual

So in essense you could say the formula values him at about $5 million for every 20 games he plays. If he didn’t play any more games this season, the salary number would drop to about $1.5-$1.6 million if the Kings finished .500 or better and less than that if they don’t. Naturally that number will shoot up if he comes back on schedule and puts up good numbers for the rest of the year.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 15, 2009 6:31 PM PST up reply actions

That's the problem, though.

A player like Lebron is worth a hell of a lot more than 5 Nocioni’s. Or even a roster full of average players.

The most important component in building a winning team is having a superstar, and in assessing the value of an average player, you aren’t factoring in the opportunity cost of those average salaries taking up cap space that could be used on a superstar (or 2 superstars). ForThree is right that worth isn’t linear in the NBA, so in reality, an average player should be worth much less than the average salary.

If you compare the average player to the median salary, you might get better results.

by Charlieb on Dec 16, 2009 6:05 AM PST up reply actions

How much is the median salary?

I’m guessing it’s not a lot different than the average, but I could be wrong.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 16, 2009 8:41 AM PST up reply actions

Looks like it's about $3 million.

by Charlieb on Dec 16, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions

A player like Lebron is worth a hell of a lot more than 5 Nocioni’s.

I may be misunderstanding you, but I am talking about one player compared to one other player. It’s obvious that LeBron and four slightly less than average guys are going to beat five guys like Nocioni. But if the other four players are the same, saying LeBron is 5-7 times better than average is pretty significant.

If you want to say LeBron is 25 X bettter than Nocioni or whatever number you have in mind, it’s not going to work in the economic context of the game. You can’t afford to pay LeBron $40-50 million a year, and guys like Nocioni aren’t going to play for $1-2 million a year.

Actually that last point is the key. What you want to do is find guys who do play for $1-2 million a year, but perform like the $5-10 million guys. And in Sacramento’s situation, we’re going to have to get at least 2-3 guys who are at least half as valuable as LeBron for half the cost.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 16, 2009 8:52 AM PST up reply actions

I agree with Charlieb

that working from the median rather than the average is a step in the right direction.

Professional Hyperbole Slayer

by ForThree on Dec 16, 2009 9:56 AM PST up reply actions

If you work from the median, if it is indeed lower

All the numbers go down proportionally. So LeBron is “worth” about $15M instead of $30M (rough).

If you want to change the numbers to reflect more value for a higher PER, that’s the number you need to play with. Maybe you just count PER at 2X the value. That might be valid, because Beno for example is not that far off LeBron in terms of minutes played, but lags worse in terms of PER.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 16, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions

Hey Man

This is good stuff.

If Winning Isn't Everthing, Why Do They Keep Score? - Vince Lombardi

by Rayder K on Dec 15, 2009 2:36 PM PST reply actions

Top 50 PER Players

These lists will probably come out jacked, but they are of the top 50 players in terms of PER. The first list rewards players regardless of ho wmany games they’ve played, the second factors in the numbe rof games. So if healthy, maybe Kevin Martin is a $25-million man.

The salary value number does not take into account team winning percentage.

1 LeBron James, CLE 27.77
2 Kevin Martin, SAC 25.97
3 Chris Paul, NOR 25.31
4 Kevin Durant, OKC 23.79
5 Dirk Nowitzki, DAL 23.35
6 Carmelo Anthony, DEN 23.13
7 Chris Bosh, TOR 23.11
8 Dwyane Wade, MIA 22.97
9 Kobe Bryant, LAL 22.88
10 Tim Duncan, SAS 22.06
11 Pau Gasol, LAL 21.27
12 Deron Williams, UTH 20.32
13 Dwight Howard, ORL 20.10
14 Steve Nash, PHO 19.29
15 Carlos Boozer, UTH 19.24
16 Brook Lopez, NJN 18.78
17 Antawn Jamison, WAS 18.78
18 Josh Smith, ATL 18.34
19 Lou Williams, PHI 17.92
20 Brandon Roy, POR 17.79
21 Zach Randolph, MEM 17.73
22 Danny Granger, IND 17.68
23 David Lee, NYK 17.54
24 Joe Johnson, ATL 17.44
25 Marc Gasol, MEM 17.36
26 Tyreke Evans, SAC 16.94
27 Rajon Rondo, BOS 16.79
28 Andrew Bynum, LAL 16.52
29 Paul Pierce, BOS 16.43
30 Al Horford, ATL 16.26
31 Nene, DEN 15.80
32 Carl Landry, HOU 15.76
33 Kevin Garnett, BOS 15.54
34 Chauncey Billups, DEN 15.49
35 Al Jefferson, MIN 15.31
36 Marcus Camby, LAC 15.15
37 Vince Carter, ORL 14.82
38 Al Harrington, NYK 14.64
39 Kevin Love, MIN 14.62
40 Marreese Speights, PHI 13.63
41 Greg Oden, POR 13.60
42 Kelenna Azubuike, GSW 12.64
43 Mike Dunleavy, IND 12.53
44 Manu Ginobili, SAS 12.46
45 Luke Ridnour, MIL 11.68
46 Ryan Anderson, ORL 9.08
47 Nazr Mohammed, CHA 7.78
48 DeJuan Blair, SAS 6.71
49 Sergio Rodriguez, SAC 6.49
50 Rasho Nesterovic, TOR 4.57

1 LeBron James, CLE 27.77
2 Chris Bosh, TOR 24.96
3 Dirk Nowitzki, DAL 23.35
4 Carmelo Anthony, DEN 23.13
5 Kevin Durant, OKC 21.88
6 Dwyane Wade, MIA 21.13
7 Kobe Bryant, LAL 21.05
8 Dwight Howard, ORL 19.29
9 Steve Nash, PHO 19.29
10 Brook Lopez, NJN 18.78
11 Brandon Roy, POR 18.51
12 Carlos Boozer, UTH 18.47
13 Deron Williams, UTH 17.88
14 Tim Duncan, SAS 17.65
15 Zach Randolph, MEM 17.02
16 Josh Smith, ATL 16.87
17 David Lee, NYK 16.84
18 Marc Gasol, MEM 16.66
19 Rajon Rondo, BOS 16.12
20 Joe Johnson, ATL 16.04
21 Nene, DEN 15.80
22 Paul Pierce, BOS 15.77
23 Chauncey Billups, DEN 15.49
24 Chris Paul, NOR 15.19
25 Carl Landry, HOU 15.13
26 Al Horford, ATL 14.96
27 Kevin Garnett, BOS 14.92
28 Tyreke Evans, SAC 14.91
29 Al Jefferson, MIN 14.09
30 Al Harrington, NYK 14.06
31 Marcus Camby, LAC 13.94
32 Andrew Bynum, LAL 13.88
33 Danny Granger, IND 12.02
34 Vince Carter, ORL 11.86
35 Greg Oden, POR 11.42
36 Luke Ridnour, MIL 10.28
37 Pau Gasol, LAL 10.21
38 Lou Williams, PHI 10.03
39 Antawn Jamison, WAS 9.77
40 Manu Ginobili, SAS 8.47
41 Nazr Mohammed, CHA 7.15
42 Ryan Anderson, ORL 6.90
43 DeJuan Blair, SAS 5.91
44 Marreese Speights, PHI 5.45
45 Kevin Martin, SAC 5.19
46 Sergio Rodriguez, SAC 4.93
47 Kelenna Azubuike, GSW 4.55
48 Mike Dunleavy, IND 4.51
49 Kevin Love, MIN 4.09
50 Rasho Nesterovic, TOR 3.11

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 16, 2009 9:19 AM PST reply actions

Recd

Fun way of looking at the age old problem of how much is a guy really worth. It’s rough, but I think your numbers generally work. I don’t think it’s a problem that one Lebron equals five nocs or whatever, because those are outliers. The truth is that there are always a few players that are so valuable they are not tradeable for anything but another untradeable player. Good stuff

"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke

by SavageBeast on Dec 16, 2009 10:49 AM PST reply actions