Alternate reality: Ricky Rubio at PG

by 9erguy on Dec 17, 2009 3:46 PM PST

Watching that Wizards game the other day, I was utterly thrilled about how Tyreke handled the clutch situation. After icing the game, I wondered what would've happened if with the 4th pick we ended up selecting Ricky Rubio instead. Looking at Rubio's stats in depth, I've tried to envision how he'd do in the NBA and how he would've impacted the Kings. (given he didn't decide to stay in Europe afterall)

One thing I can say with absolute confidence is that he'd have a much lower scoring average than Tyreke. Taking into consideration his minutes and competition, I think Rubio's average would be around 9-10 points per game. The most points he's ever scored was 15. In terms of assists, I'd say Rubio would've edged out Tyreke by maybe 1 to 1.5 and thus average around 6-7 assists a game and perhaps having a few less turnovers. Ricky also seems to have the ability to go off for like 14 assists if he played heavy minutes. To my surprise, he has quite the healthy stealing average. Still, being from Europe and being relatively small, I strongly doubt his defensive abilities would be on par with Evan's. No way he has as many blocked shots. In terms of rebounds, its no contest. After the jump, I look at how I think Ricky Rubio would've impacted the Kings.

As it currently stands, the Kings offense ranks 8th in the league in terms of points scored (107). Our defense is 27th in the league in terms of points against us (108). I believe that if we had Rubio instead, we lose a net total of 6 points to bring us to 102. (I assume he scores only 10 points a game and dishes out 7 assists) That brings our offensive rank to golden state territory. Defensively, that is harder to decide. In my mind, I feel that 'Reke allows 5 fewer points than Rick. If that was true, than we'd fall to the bottom of the league.

In terms of wins, I think we lose 3 wins. I think we don't pull out the game in Utah where Evan's goes off for 32. I think we lose the Pacers game and I think we lose that squeaker over the Wizards, making us 8-16. At this point, we'd be hearing all this stuff about how Rubio's still young and getting used to the pace of the game and how he has all this great potential. Afterall, he's barely played over 20 minutes in any stretch of his career. Grant Napear would've exaggerated ad nasuem about how awesome every pass he made was. By the end of January, Kings fans would've already been talking about next year's draft position. Sure, every now and again there is a flashy pass to Kmart or Jason Thompson that makes the ESPN highlight reel, but the Kings still would lack the offensive firepower and clutch ability that Tyreke brings to the team. And before anyone suggests I'm just jumping on the Tyreke Evans bandwagon because he's the Rookie of the ~~month~~ year, I suggest you read my previous post. Now then, if we could only get a reliable big man either through a trade, next year's draft or through signing a big name free agent this off-season, I think we go deep in the playoffs.

Poll

If we had drafted Ricky Rubio instead

The Kings would've been a better team

9 votes

The Kings would've been about the same

20 votes

The Kings would've been a worse team

188 votes

I'm still sad we didn't get Blake Griffin

17 votes

234 votes | Poll has closed

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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Comments

Sigh...

Oh well

by Mityt on Dec 17, 2009 3:49 PM PST reply actions

Rubio,

would have had a longer adjustment period and the injury to Martin would have taken away one of his primary targets. I think the defense would be (potentially) about the same due to the other draftpicks and deft coaching (and the fact that Rubio is not a bad defender). The offense would be solid overall (we would just lack a true closer). However, missing Martin and Garcia would be more pronounced.

I think Rubio (if he ever decides to come over) will still be a great PG in the NBA. If he were a King right now we would not be looking at a potential Rookie of the Year canidate (even though we would steal the once in a bluemoon highlight on ESPN). I also agree that our win total would not be as high.

I was one of the biggest prognosticators for Rubio and and was bummed when he was not selected… that being said Evans and this scrappy-doo version of the Kings have changed my heart.

Go Kings!

Blessings.Love.Peace

by lifestyleforthesellout on Dec 17, 2009 4:50 PM PST reply actions

uh

‘prognosticator’ – really?

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Dec 17, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions

Sorry

office mode. Not to mention that it’s a little out of context.

Blessings.Love.Peace

by lifestyleforthesellout on Dec 17, 2009 11:50 PM PST up reply actions

Please

No more Rubio talk until he plays in the NBA or wins something in Europe.

"Even a fool is counted wise when he holds his peace; When he shuts his lips, he is considered perceptive." Proverbs 17:28

by kwill on Dec 17, 2009 5:04 PM PST reply actions

Well, to be fair to the kid, he is 18, and has the body of an 18 year old.

He has tons of potential, but people were confusing potential with ability. I’m super glad that we have Tyreke, but anybody that had a level head about Rubio knew he would be a project.

It’s not his fault that he is a project that got hyped as an instant star.

"Thou must give props" - Ice_9ine

by tomroadrunner on Dec 17, 2009 6:24 PM PST up reply actions

Scouting in Europe is WAY better than here, in my observations. Just look at all of those European

soccer clubs that have 9 year olds in their farm teams. Look at Barcelona, a lot their star players grew up IN the city of Barcelona and were hand picked as children.

My point in saying this is that if a European club of Barcelona’s stature pick out someone at that age and says, “he has great potential”, there is a good chance that he does. And that is exactly what they did with Rubio. That doesn’t mean that he is surefire, it just means that you might want to reserve a spot for a potential star.

"Thou must give props" - Ice_9ine

by tomroadrunner on Dec 17, 2009 6:31 PM PST up reply actions

This is a little bit misleading

As Rubio is someone they actually looked to bring directly into the first team, rather than develop. And I wouldn’t necessarily say that Barca bringing him into the basketball team is a a great recommendation of his skill, as Barca doesn’t have the international reputation or current youth development system in basketball that they do in soccer. All Rubio’s transfer to Barca demonstrates is that he’s a high profile player and that Barca is one of the only Spanish clubs who can afford his Joventut buyout clause.

European scouting does function differently, there is more vested interest in getting players young, because the benefits of getting them young can mean saving massive amounts of money later on transfer fees, not to mention indoctrinating them in the club’s style and mission. It’s an interesting world relative to here. I’d say that the primary beneficiaries of the European system are the world’s biggest and richest clubs, and the players, because in Europe, you rarely see a KG in Minny situation, i.e. a great player on a shitty team. Conversely, and depressingly, the primary beneficiaries of youth development in the US (at least in major sports like basketball and football) is the NCAA, as well as the corporations that sponsor the NCAA tournament and BCS crapshoot.

Sorry for the digression, it’s just more complicated than better or worse.

by bartenpa on Dec 18, 2009 8:37 AM PST up reply actions

Solid logic.

"Thou must give props" - Ice_9ine

by tomroadrunner on Dec 18, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions

Tom, I agree with you

I’m just pat the Rubio stuff because I’m content with Reke. I hope I did not imply that it’s a bad thing to post Rubio stuff here (it’s not my concern). I just am sick of Rubio because it is such a non issue for the team now.

"Even a fool is counted wise when he holds his peace; When he shuts his lips, he is considered perceptive." Proverbs 17:28

by kwill on Dec 17, 2009 6:33 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

True dat.

"Thou must give props" - Ice_9ine

by tomroadrunner on Dec 17, 2009 6:35 PM PST up reply actions

love Tyreke, he is the right choice

But I think it is interesting to compare the breakout of Brandon Jennings in the NBA with his Euroleague and Italian stats. Then take a look at Rubio’s Euroleague and Spanish league stats.

They are very similar in minutes and points, but Rubio is just a little better in assists and rebounds. Makes you wonder what will happen when he comes over. You know he is looking at Jennings thinking he could do that, or better.

Jennings is a bit older, but he had a big culture shock to adjust as well. Rubio is actually 3 inches taller, though probably not as quick.
Tyreke is the man the Kings needed though.

Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut

by Ice_9ine on Dec 17, 2009 10:54 PM PST via mobile reply actions

+1

by Mityt on Dec 17, 2009 11:02 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

definately not as quick

While everyone was raving about the Olympics, My point watching was always that I couldn’t find where he had any ability to penetrate against NBA caliber players.

Amazing handle of course but PGs in the NBA must be able to penetrate. That said, he’s young and his story isn’t over.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Dec 17, 2009 11:23 PM PST up reply actions

We have to wait two years

to make a judgement. What do the T-Wolves do? Flynn is looking really solid as a pg but theres no way i see him playing SG. It would cause so many mismatches on the defensive end for the T-Wolves. Hes way to small to play the 2. I wouldn’t be surprised if they dangle his rights before the draft next year.

Punjabi by Nature

by Robby1987 on Dec 18, 2009 1:51 AM PST up reply actions

The Knicks will definitely outbid themselves to secure those rights.

There's nothing to fear but everything.

by elfboy_ on Dec 18, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions

Rubio is no speed demon, and he can't hit a jumper, but i dont think that stops him from being effective

He would just need to be on the right team, and that is not the T’Wolves. I am not surprised that he didn’t come over after they drafted him.

But I think it will work out for Minny, they are at the very lowest depths of their rebuild, and I think they will eventually trade their rights. Rubio needs to be on a team with players that can cover his weaknesses and maximize his strengths while he develops, a la Rajon Rondo. Rondo isn’t the fastest, and he was a horrible shooter, but being able to focus on playmaking and defense has turned him into some weird, otherworldly specialized basketball freak.

I think Rubio, in the right situation, could be at least as good. Whether or not that situation will ever come together for him in the NBA is somewhat doubtful. But imagine a team like the Clippers getting his rights, with someone to dump off to in Kaman, someone to oop to in Griffin, someone to shoot the 3 in Gordon, and hopefully a coach that makes them all focus on defense. I think Rubio could work in something like that.

Tyreke, on the other hand, would make an impact wherever he had went, and we are super lucky that he dropped to us, and that management saw Evans value.

I was thinking about how the how badly we have all been hoping for a presence in the frontcourt, and how, when Kevin comes back, that may not be as necessary as we think.

Teams won’t be able to collapse in the lane on Tyreke with Martin cutting, ready to shoot. With another steady teammate to pass to, Martin won’t have to conserve his energy for offense, he will be more willing to pass, and he will become even more efficient. With more focus on the backcourt, defenses will allow Thompson and even Hawes to be more opportunistic, and more effective. And if Casspi and even Greene can continue to improve, we will have one more weapon that can’t be ignored.

Tyreke’s 20/5/5 isn’t some arbitrary statistic. Oscar, LeBron, Jordan. That could be our future. And while the other 2 are great, I see this team developing something even more akin to Jordan’s Bulls.

All the pieces are in place. Jordan had great wing players in Pippen and Kucoc. Tyreke has a future of Martin and Casspi. Jordan had somewhat underwhelming centers but tough opportunistic power forwards in Wennington, Longley, Grant and Rodman. Doesn’t Hawes just remind you a bit of a skinny Luc Longley? Wouldn’t you love to see Shock as a Rodman/Grant hybrid?

So, I get excited easily. But my point is, Rubio will be nice, but Tyreke could be great.

Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut

by Ice_9ine on Dec 18, 2009 10:33 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

This makes me happy

I get excited easily as well.

put me in, Coach

by LaBradford on Dec 18, 2009 11:08 AM PST up reply actions

i know, i am freaking giddy

Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut

by Ice_9ine on Dec 18, 2009 11:11 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

It's hard to make presumptions

“Rubio is no speed demon, and he can’t hit a jumper, but i dont think that stops him from being effective”

Scouts also said Tyreke couldn’t hit a jumper.

Right now, I’m not sure about Rubio, because I haven’t seen him play enough to make a solid determination in how he’d play in the NBA. …I’m sure Rubio might be a great to at least solid player, but he’ll have some huge shoes to fill if he’s being compared to Tyreke.

by CloudyEyes on Dec 21, 2009 4:45 PM PST up reply actions

Way too early for a poll

Our goal last summer was not to build a fringe playoff contender for this season. Our goal was to build team that could be a contender a few years down the road. Tyreke is older and we all knew he’d be more ready for this season. We’d be worse this year with Rubio, but in the big scheme of things, that’s next to meaningless. Where would we be three years from now? That’s a more important question, and it’s one that we have no good way of answering right now.

by twasserm on Dec 18, 2009 7:25 AM PST reply actions