Measuring the progress of a young team

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 18, 2009 2:44 PM PST

The Kings are 11-13 overall, 10-3 at home, but just 1-10 on the road. If they were to keep up that pace, they’d win 31.54 games at home and just 3.73 games on the road for a total of 35.27 wins.

I think most would consider that a successful season, although the strong play of our young team despite missing Kevin Martin and Francisco Garcia has teased us into hoping for more and expecting more when those two return to the court.

There’s been some talk of formulas to measure the progress of a young team, and three were put forth in the Kings-Blazers post-game thread.

Otis:

1. Win games at home versus bad teams.
2. Win games on the road versus bad teams.
3. Beat good teams at home.
4. Beat good teams on the road.

ForThree:

1. Win the vast majority of games at home against bad teams.
2. Win half your games at home against good teams.
3. Win half your games on the road against bad teams.
4. Beat good teams regularly at home.
5. Win .400 of road games overall (you’re a playoff team here)
6. Win .500 on the road.

Kfan:

1. 20 wins at home – 10 road = 30 wins (poor team).

2. 25 wins at home – 15 road = 40 wins (borderline playoff team).

3. 30 wins at home – 20 road = 50 wins (home court contender).

4. 35 wins at home – 25 road = 60 wins (title contender).

I am not sure what constitutes a good vs. bad team, and there’s probably room for average in there, but that would tend to make things a little too messy. Probably better to just use above .500 as a gauge of good teams and below that mark to indicate bad teams. I am going to call .500 Oklahoma City a good team for purposes of this exercise.

Anyway, let’s see how the Kings are stacking up by these three sets of criteria:

1. Win games at home versus bad teams (8-1, PASS).
* Nov 2: MEM (.400), W 127-116

* Nov 8: GSW (.280), W 120-107

* Nov 17: CHI (.375), L 87-101

* Nov 25: NYK (.320), W 111-97

* Nov 27: NJN (.077), W 109-96

* Nov 29: NOR (.458), W 112-96

* Dec 2: IND (.391), W 110-105

* Dec 12: MIN (.154), W 120-100

* Dec 16: WAS (.304), W 112-109

2. Win games on the road versus bad teams (0-3, FAIL).
* Oct 30: @ NOR (.458), L 92-97

* Nov 23: @ MEM (.400), L 105-116

* Dec 8: @ NOR (.458), L 94-96

3. Beat good teams at home (2-2, PASS/FAIL).
* Nov 4: ATL (.750), L 105-113

* Nov 10: OKC (.500), W 101-98

* Nov 13: HOU (.560), W 109-100

* Dec 6: MIA (.542), L 102-115

4. Beat good teams on the road (1-7, FAIL).

* Oct 28: @ OKC (.500), L 89-102

* Oct 31: @ SAS (.565), L 94-113

* Nov 7: @ UTH(.600), W 104-99

* Nov 20: @ DAL (.731), L 102-104

* Nov 21: @ HOU (.560), L 106-113

* Dec 5: @ PHO (.654), L 107-115

* Dec 9: @ SAS (.565), L 106-118

* Dec 15: @ POR (.593), L 88-95

ForThree:

1. Win the vast majority of games at home against bad teams (7-1, PASS).
2. Win half your games at home against good teams (2-2, PASS).
3. Win half your games on the road against bad teams (0-3, FAIL).
4. Beat good teams regularly at home (2-2, FAIL).
5. Win .400 of road games overall (you’re a playoff team here), (1-10, FAIL).
6. Win .500 on the road (1-10, FAIL).

Kfan:

1. 20 wins at home – 10 road = 30 wins (poor team).

2. 25 wins at home – 15 road = 40 wins (borderline playoff team).

3. 30 wins at home – 20 road = 50 wins (home court contender).

4. 35 wins at home – 25 road = 60 wins (title contender).

We’re on pace for more than 31-32 home wins and less than four road wins, so FAIL across the board.

It’s still a pretty small sample size to draw any conclusions from. We’ve had a loss of success at home, but we need to improve our performance on the road. I’m pretty confident this team is going to win more than four road games, but winning more than 30 home games would definitely be a surprise.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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Comments

Now 0-4 on the road

vs. bad teams. We get another chance in the same category tonight against a “better” bad team than the one we blew chunks against last night. Time to bring our A game and get over the hump.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 19, 2009 9:18 AM PST reply actions

The Kings join Charlotte and New Orleans

as the only teams currently in the top 10 in home winning pct. and the bottom 10 (and bottom 5) in road winning pct. If the Kings were just playing at the league average on the road (.376), they would be 15-11 after tonight’s game, with a 5-8 road record.

Ah, the travels and travails of a young team.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Dec 19, 2009 10:34 AM PST reply actions

Your breakdowns show a lot

Home: vs good – 4 games
Home: vs bad – 9 games

Road: vs good – 8 games
Road: vs bad – 3 games

We’ve played more bad teams at home, thus the high home winning percentage and we’ve played more good teams on the road, thus the low road percentage. You also expect a young team to struggle a bit on the road. I expect both percentages to normalize a bit.

20-25 home wins and hopefully over 10 on the road. That would be very nice and way above the 24 total wins I was expecting at the beginning of the season.

I know it’s fun for you to post my numbers and then claim fail across the board, but it’s supposed to be goals, not a checklist.

First target is get to 50% at home and 25% on the road. Then you go for 66%/33% – that gets you .500. Is it possible to progress faster at home than on the road? Of course.

It was just a numbers game that I used to use when back in the 90s when I was trying to figure a way for the Kings to make the playoffs. “We can win 66% at home, we just need to get 14-15 road wins and we’ve got a shot.”

A Quick look at last season’s standings:

Philly and Chicago both finished at .500, winning 24 and 28 at home respectively.(Projection: 25)

Dallas won 50 and NO won 49, winning 32 and 28 at home respectively. (Projection: 30)

Orlando won 59 and Boston won 62. 32 and 35 at home respectively. (Projection: 35)

GS won 29 and NYK won 32. 21 and 20 at home respectively. (Projection: 20)

It seems to work, way better than I expected actually. The proper analysis of where the Kings are right now, using my list, would have been:

We’re winning at home like a solid playoff team, but winning on the road like a very bad team. This is likely because of the youth of the team and the strengths of our early home and road schedules.

Which oddly enough is very similar to your conclusion for the article as a whole.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Dec 19, 2009 3:13 PM PST reply actions

Touchy

I know it’s fun for you to post my numbers and then claim fail across the board, but it’s supposed to be goals, not a checklist.

I wouldn’t overanalyze the use of the words PASS and FAIL. It’s a young team, so you expect failure. It’s encouraging that they are passing some tests, and I think the various checklists are a good way to measure where this team has been and by extension where it is headed.

Which oddly enough is very similar to your conclusion for the article as a whole.

You do get it right every once in a while.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 19, 2009 5:28 PM PST reply actions

I was mostly kidding, but then

you come back with a comment like this:

You do get it right every once in a while.

and claim that I’m being touchy?

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Dec 19, 2009 5:36 PM PST up reply actions

I was also "mostly kidding."

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 20, 2009 8:39 AM PST up reply actions

The difference being

My mostly kidding was about you insulting me and your mostly kidding was about you insulting me, so now I’ll just say you’re being mostly an asshole.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Dec 20, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions

Soft

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 20, 2009 7:14 PM PST up reply actions

fine have it your way

you’re being mostly a “soft” asshole

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Dec 20, 2009 8:09 PM PST up reply actions

You get the last word, Mr. Softy

I still don’t think I insulted you until you started acting like a real dick. The fact that you took it that way is what really makes you soft. I won’t call you an asshole, but that also fits pretty well.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 20, 2009 8:27 PM PST up reply actions

I'm pretty sure

You do get it right every once in a while.

is an insult, but I did over react a bit by calling you an asshole for it. So, for that I apologize.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Dec 20, 2009 9:21 PM PST up reply actions

I'm willing to let bygones be bygones

and submit that both your response to my fanpost and my repsonse to that contained “veiled insults.”

If anything, I added your discussion into my discussion and added some context. If I knew doing that was going to turn this into an “asshole for an asshole” thread, I would left that out. I’ll consider myself forewarned in the future.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 20, 2009 9:51 PM PST up reply actions

You crack me up

I’m willing to let bygones be bygones

Right after you get in one more jab. So magnanimous of you.

Almost as funny as your previous “You get the last word” post as you then proceed to call me 3 names.

You’re a riot.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Dec 21, 2009 4:50 AM PST up reply actions

Projection

Here’s the projection assuming all four of these groups represent one-fourth of the Kings games (including the win over the Bucks).
1. Win games at home versus bad teams (8-1). 18.22 wins.
2. Win games on the road versus bad teams (1-4). 4.10 wins.
3. Beat good teams at home (2-2). 10.25 wins.
4. Beat good teams on the road (1-7). 2.56 wins.
TOTAL: 35.13 wins

So we’re a 35-win team without Kevin and Cisco. When they return, is a .500 season in the cards?

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 20, 2009 8:47 AM PST reply actions

I'm guessing

HOME: 24
ROAD: 11

As was mentioned above our road schedule has been fairly difficult while our home a little easier.

Thats saying we’ll only win half our home games from here on out and 9 of 29 more on the road.

35 wins is sounding a little conservative at the moment but I’ll live there for now until we figure out a way to beat some better teams.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Dec 20, 2009 1:47 PM PST reply actions

yeah, that's about where I was at

Going .500 at home the rest of the way seems low, but I’m having trouble hoping for more than 35 wins or so.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Dec 20, 2009 2:51 PM PST up reply actions

I think its interesting to push those predictions around some

and add some content to give them a little flesh.

Good job.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Dec 21, 2009 9:28 AM PST reply actions

Another measuring stick of the composure of our team could be analyzing how well we close out games:

Out of all the games this season, eight have been decided by 5 or fewer points:

@ New Orleans: L 92-97
@ Utah: W 97-92
vs. OKC: W 101-98
@ Dallas: L 102-104
vs. Indiana: W 110-105
@ New Orleans: L 94-96
vs. Washington: W 112-109
@ Milwaukee: W 96-95

We are 2-3 in close games on the road, and 3-0 in close games at home, bringing us to a grand total of 5-3 in games decided by 5 points or less.

This is pretty surprising to me. It felt like a lot of the time, we have been getting the short end of the stick when it comes to games decided in the last couple of minutes. But it looks like we are doing a pretty good job.

I can only think of one real place for improvement. Hitting our free throws down the stretch has been a very weak point of this team. That Portland game would have been very different had we hit our free throws. Same with the second New Orleans game. The only game where free throws did not come back and bite us in the ass is the Washington game.

by UCIrvine kings fan on Dec 21, 2009 1:35 PM PST reply actions