Thoughts on the Kings vs Bulls game

Disclaimer:  I'm headed out and won't be able to post to TZ's Game Preview Post as usual.   So, I thought I'd comment here.

With the help of my shrink, I’m finally over the Minny game.   He told me everyone has a bad day once in a while, and that I shouldn’t let it keep me bedridden and depressed.  So with that advise and a 6 pack of beer, “I’m feeling much better now”.

Chicago had the benefit of playing 8 or their 10 games in December at Home.   They lost both their road games and managed to split the 8 home games.   Of those wins only the last game against ATL was against a quality opponent.  (GSW, NYN, DET were the other wins)   So, even though they won their last 2 games, Chicago has been colder than a midnight walk in January down Lake Shore Dr.   For December they’re shooting 42% Field, 28% 3PT, and scoring 90.3 PPG.

In the last few games they’ve started Brad Miller at PF where he is shooting 42% Field, 13% 3’s (1-8), with 5.5 rebounds and 8.3ppg.   Rose is even worse at 3pt shooting, hitting only 1 of 9 in December.  So, among the starters if you can cover Deng and Salmons (35% from 3), Chicago has almost no 3pt shooting.  The only player that has consistently produced is Luol Deng.   In the last game against ATL, Deng out scored and out rebound Miller & Noah together.  

Other than Rose (19.2ppg) & Salmons (12.8ppg), the only player who has picked up his game of late is Taj Gibson.   Gibson is shooting 54%, with 7.8 rebounds 1.2 blocks, and 10.6 ppg.   Gibson & Noah are almost sure bets to score double doubles.

So, how are the Kings going to win this game?   Let’s look at how we lost the last CHI game in Sac..   It was Tyreke’s 10th game as a pro.   CHI packed into the paint and denied Tyreke any penetration.   Evans ended up 8-19, 0-4 from 3, and only 4 trips to the FT line.   The trio of Noah, Miller & Gibson held JT & Spencer to 15pts and 13 rebounds totaled.  There was almost no ball movement, and the Kings committed 21 turnovers.   But, worst of all the Bulls bench out scored the Kings bench 31 to 15, mostly thru the shooting of Pargo.

Well, Tyreke has had 16 more games to learn how to deal the teams packing the paint.   Omri is starting now and should put up more than the 4pt he had in the last game.   And, even though the starting backcourt of Beno & Tyreke didn’t work out in the last Bulls game, after how they finished the Bucks game, we might see them start again.  Of the ten starting lineups that PW has put on the floor this season, the Beno, Tyreke, Noc, JT & Hawes line up is the most successful (4-2 or 67% winning percentage).    While the line up of Tyreke, Greene, Noc, JT & Hawes is 4-5 or a 45% winning percentage.   And, with Beno starting I look for them to reduce their turnovers.

I look at the last Bulls game as another off night, in the same vein as the Mem & Minny games.   And, not soon to be repeated.   JT & Hawes will step up their games, and offset the play Chicago’s bigs.   In the last game the rebounding was 41 apiece with the Kings +1 on the offensive boards.   I predict that the Bulls shooters will be as cold as the reception that John McCain would receive at a Chicago Democratic fundraiser.   But, most of all the Kings will stifle Deng.   Without him Chicago can’t win.   Whoever PW starts at SF, be it Noc, Omri, or Green, will need to stay on Deng.   No help coming from Dengs’ man.   The only time they should be further than 5 ft away from him is when they go to the locker room at half time.  Noc knows the Bulls and I expect him to have a good game and come out of his shooting slump. 

Tyreke is a god, so I don’t care who PW starts in the backcourt with him.   Whether it’s Donte or Omri or Beno, it doesn’t matter; they will crush Rose & Salmons.   As in the Bucks game it’s more important who finishes the game than who starts the game, so I’m up with whichever line up PW comes up with for this game.   

Well, that one was the beer talking.   I do care.   I like Beno’s defense against Jennings and think he can defend Rose.   Tyreke on Salmons might be a tougher matchup for the rookie, but I’d like to see the defensive battle.   And, as always, I’d rather see Donte using his length & quickness defending the PF and scoring closer to the rim, than trying to stay in front of quick SG and playing offense out at the top of the arc.   Besides Miller & Gibson are more jump shooters than low post players.   Miller takes 68% of his shots from outside & Gibson takes 60% of his from outside.  

But, the lineup of Noc, JT, Hawes, Casspi and Evans worked last game and I think PW will go with that one again.   With Beno coming off the bench at the PG, and Donte playing some PF or helping out defending Deng.

The Kings come home with their first winning road trip in over a year.   I’m calling this Kings by 9, 102 to 93.   Go Kings.