Sacramento's Tough Road Ahead

not being a downer, it’s being a realist. This team, although surprising so far, is still a young team. The teams they’ve played aren’t exactly the best teams in the NBA. There’s going to be a drop off, and it’s going to be fine. As long as the team doesn’t lose any confidence, and plays hard in every game like they have been, they’ll be fine, no matter what their record is..

But all these points are certainly valid. There are really four general steps in gauging the rebuilding of this team IMO – first is to win consistently at home (check), the second is to beat good teams at home (TBD), third is to get road wins against weaker or middle of the road teams (definitely not there yet), and lastly is to be competitive and win games against higher level teams on the road (way off in the distance).

So I’m excited about the next three weeks, to see where this team is – if they continue to play with the same effort, I think they will do well enough.

This team is so much better than last season’s version, no matter what happens from here. But don’t get it twisted: it’s going to get rough. There will be losses, perhaps blow-out losses. There might be losing streaks. I’d love to be surprised, but a sense of realism dictates the realization that reality is working against the Kings. With no Kevin Martin, beating the Hornets, the Knicks, the Nets, the Pacers … that’s improbable, perhaps, but believable. With no Kevin Martin, beating the Suns? The Heat? The Spurs? The Hornets on the road? It’s much less likely, unfortunately.

I hate to be a downer, but as high as these wins have taken our spirits, we should prepare for the slide. This team probably won’t be above .500 a week from now, and that’s OK.

The team has definitely surprised the “realists” to this point, and I think they will continue to surprise us.

I’m looking forward to seeing Tyreke cover some of the best players in the league and for the Kings to continue to shock the nation.

The Knicks have been looking like YMCA team much of year, and they whipped the Suns. When this happens to bad to mediocre team, the first reaction is to conclude those guys suck. For example, the Bobcats lost to the 0-18 Nets? Those guys suck! When a top echelon team loses, the reaction is along the lines of better watch out for them (Suns) next game. The Suns game versus the Knicks was the ‘next game’, as they were previously routed by the Cavs. My reaction to a blowout is to conclude chinks in the armor exists, and there is game tape coaches, PW and crew, can analysis to find areas to exploit, and mirror some of the successful strategy, if possible. (The Knicks employed a soft trap against Steve Nash that was effective much of the game.)

We can compete with the Suns and the Heat. I predict a big win on Sunday! The cream of the crop in the NBA is the Celtics (9-1 on road, stifling defense), the L*kers (biggest frontline in history of basketball), the Magic, and the Cavs. That’s four teams, 3 in the East, of whom we only see twice.

Other playoff-caliber teams trying to get to elite level are a notch or two below the rest IMO (Spurs, Heat, Suns, Hawks, Nuggets, Mavs, Bulls, Blazers, Thunder.) These teams have a superstar talent which makes them highly formidable, but their supporting cast is hot-and-cold and no better than ours. I put us in this group next year with the ascent of Tyreke to superstar, and K-Mart as unstoppable second option.

The 15 teams I did not mention above are all on par with us or worse, and can be beat at home or road. That’s half the league, and a lot of winnable games.

One thought regarding our relatively tough upcoming schedule. Is there a reason Noce cannot raise his level of play? I think he can! We need him to play at higher level. As far as I am concerned, he is getting a lot of great looks. His shot has been inconsistent. If he can deliver a few more 8-14 and 6 for 10 shooting nights, and fewer 3 for 9 type shooting nights, the court opens for all involved. The Kings as road warriors will be a site to behold.

Tonight and tomorrow I’d guess Ime Udoka will see time against Steve Nash and Dwayne Wade. He needs to pester, foul without getting called for it ;), harass, and fight through every screen like Sean May to the front of a buffet line. If he wants to make a shot, that wouldn’t be a bad idea either.

The month of January is even harder in terms of the quality of opponents. I think its safe to say that if the Kings can remain at .500 through December and January, they’re making the playoffs, mainly because they would have shown they could be a tougher quality of opponent, and the schedule is easier from there. I doubt it will happen though.

One things for sure though, I expect the team to show a lot of heart in these games, and as long as they’re doing that, I don’t mind.

Although admittedly, getting half of them before the new year begins would make for a long winter and spring.

What’s the over/under on the gentle ball-fondling of Kevin Martin by the haters once a losing streak begins?

“Trade him for Chris Bosh and then….now wait, I LOVE HIM.”

Kentucky JOHN WALL on tube now v. NC: His speed in open court is ridiculous. Often I say don’t believe the hype. But with this guy, believe the hype!

It seems that the teams that hurt us most have a dominant or at least damned good low post presence. They capitalize on the lacking depth in our roster in ways that even PW’s creativity is limited in being able to address.

In looking at the low post I think we have the edge on them. We have some athletic young guys who are making great strides and they just aren’t that big. Can we defend against Amare Stoudemire? I hope so… Should be interesting to see if his Brockness can smack him down and make it hurt too much, but then he probably isn’t quick enough… JT and Spence may be able to hang. We will see it K9 gets some burn.

On point I think that we can compete against them with our trifecta and I would love to see us out-phoenix them with Captain Serge taking PG into overdrive. Evans may given them fits, especially if Noc, Bomri, or Donte’s 3s start dropping and they gets hot, opening up the lane a bit.

I don’t think the Phoenix game is unwinnable as you clearly point out TZ, none of these games are unwinnable your attempt to moderate expectations. This may be needed for some of the underbridge dweller who malign attempts at perspective, but then again nothing seems to really help there anyway.

Winning depends on two things. If we miss a ton of shots we will get killed on transition. If we have a ton of TOs we get killed on transition. Value the ball boys and make them count!

So just thought I’d drop this quote from Paul Westphal from the preseason game against the Suns:

“We have to tell him ‘Hey Omri, back off a little bit,’” Westphal said after Tuesday night’s exhibition game against the Phoenix Suns. “He wanted to guard (Amar’e) Stoudemire. ’I’ll stop him, I’ll stop him.’ Not tonight Omri. Save that for the regular season.”

It’s regular season time. Unleash Jewbacca!

:)
Tempering expectations is probably a good idea – but I still think the guys go 6-8 the rest of the month.

Tyreke’s blow up for 40 or 50. They have nobody to stop him. Our bigs have to hit a couple Js, continue to rebound (the Suns are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league.) I think the Kings will out rebound and over all out hustle the Suns, who are reeling still from 2 bad losses. Sacramento has a deeper bench than Phoenix. The Kings could really pop the Suns in the mouth this game. And Evans will lead the charge.

I’ve said it before that I’m going to try my best to judge this team by their play and not by their record in this upcoming months. I think if they play well and continue to do what they’ve been doing they Ws will come. I’d definitely won’t cry if we lose to better teams and won’t whine if the kids have a bad showing from time to time.

I think we can still get some nice quality wins but we are still long ways away from beating good teams on a consistent basis. I actually think Phoenix is not a terrible matchup for us and if a couple things go our way we could steal one.

I’m very excited about the net couple months. It;s going to be great to see how the coaching staff and these young guys adjust to playing much better competition. I’d certainly be more excited about staying in games, playing great, and maybe losing against the best teams in the league than playing average and beating the bad teams.