Preview: Heat at Kings
by Ziller on Dec 6, 2009 12:00 PM PST
36 comments
THE OPPONENT
For all the worry about the toughness of this stretch (guilty!), Miami actually isn't that much better than the Kings. The Heat come in 10-9, with a points differential of -0.37 and an SRS of +0.34, 14th in the league. The Heat offense is ranked 18th, the Heat defense is ranked 18th. This has been a thoroughly average team so far.
Our Kings, of course, are 9-9, with a points differential of +0.11 and an SRS of -0.30, 15th in the league. Sacramento hosts the 6th-ranked offense and the 23rd-ranked defense. This match-up is really, really even. On paper, the Kings have the advantages: ARCO Arena is the site, and starting Heat center Jermaine O'Neal is out. O'Neal has had a bit of a renaissance season, playing 32 minutes a game, and contributing 14/8/1.2 for the Heat. His back-up is Joel Anthony, who is a great shotblocker but happens to do most other things quite poorly. Miami could also use a Udonis Haslem/Michael Beasley frontcourt, considering how strong a defender Haslem has been opposite 7-footers (like Dirk Nowitzki in the 2006 Finals, for one example) in the past. For what it's worth, Erik Spoelstra told the Miami Herald that Jamaal Magloire could get "a dose of extended action" in Sacramento. Like Anthony, Magloire is not very good these days. (The Kings have always been good at making "not very good" opposing big men look like All-Stars, of course).
The Heat are mediocre on the offensive glass and a bit above average on the defensive glass. I think the Kings can win the rebound percentages tonight. It could be a matter of hitting shots.
THE KEY BATTLE
Dwyane Wade vs. Tyreke Evans. No word on line-up adjustments from Paul Westphal -- in the backcourt, the Heat are a bit traditional with Mario Chalmers at the point. Quentin Richardson isn't terribly undersized at small forward (especially not against the Kings), and Wade creates problems for any defender or opposing offensive player. I figure that Evans and Wade will match up some, and it'd be a joy to see them go mano a mano down the stretch. Evans has to watch his dribble, or Wade will be darting the other way on repeat.
BOLD PROCLAMATION
Dwyane Wade will hit the floor at some point.
NUMERIC PREDICTION
Kings by 2.
DETAILS
The Sunday 6PM tip-off. KHTK 1140 AM on radio and Comcast SportsNet on TV. Game thread at 6, post-game thread at 8:45, recap blinking on a gutter.
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Spencer and JT
are my keys to the game tonight. With JO out, Kings need to attack the paint with ferocity. If Spence or JT can get their jumper going too and take Anthony out of the paint, it will open up the lane for Tyreke (who will be guarded by Wade in all likelihood).
Our bench also is stronger than they’re bench, so hopefully we get a good game from one of those players.
Go Kings, I’ll miss the game due to work, but I’m expecting a victory.
Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.
the difference between these two teams, is a superstar v. a rookie star
Miami is not all that talented. They have nice pieces who perform well. They are well coached. Wade is the caffeine that races through their bloodstream. Advantage Miami.
The Kings frontcourt v. the Heat – that is the battle for this game, IMO. But I sure do relish seeing the “DWade of tomorrow” v. the DWade of today. I like Beno/Sergio over Mario, and despite the advantage of team experience (which lessens mistakes), I would like to see the molto allegro style of Sergio to overrun this road weary Heat squad.
oops! forgot my own bold prediction
TZ:
Dwyane Wade will hit the floor at some point.
My bold prediction: he gets back up.
by betweentheeyes on Dec 6, 2009 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
He gets back up
at least one more time than he got knocked down… which is weird and kind of impossible, but whatever.
www.mancancook.net
I still have nightmares
watching Beno get stripped by Chalmers over and over last season.
Professional Hyperbole Slayer
Let's see how WaBeno does then.
Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.
ESPN insider has been running a simulator called Accuscore
it has Kings 100.2 Heat 99.8. Kings win by less than half a point! (it’s still a win).
by betweentheeyes on Dec 6, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions
This game is simpler to predict
We take care of the ball and play reasonably well everywhere else
and its a win. GO KINGS!
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
We've been doing an excellent job at taking care of the ball the last few games
And Miami is in the bottom 6 of forcing turnovers. Unfortunately we’re at the bottom 6 in turnovers, and Miami is 2nd.
Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.
First game I won't be able to watch this season.
Bummer. Good luck, Kings!
What's the past tense for "scam?" Is it "scrumped?"
Bold Prediction
Tyreke will B-slap Wade and tell him, “This is my league now, Biyatch”. O.K. not really, but it could happen. :)
My Bold Prediction
Tyreke strips Wade with time running down in the 4th, Kings down 2, hits a running 3 as time expires, jumps on the scorer’s table and yells, “THIS IS MY HOUSE!!!” and becomes front-runner for ROY.
by UCIrvine kings fan on Dec 6, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions
After that
Eric Maynor calls the scorer’s table and tells Reke “your almost as good as me; well, atleast as close as anyone can be!”
Free Brockman
Last night didn’t feature good matchups for Brockman, but tonight I think he could cover any of their bigs and should get 10-20 minutes of PT. It won’t surprise me to see a lot of Brockman and Kenny playing together if JT and Hawes don’t step up their games.
Wade usually doesn’t take off his warmups until the fourth quarter. Then he takes over the game. Make someone else beat you.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 6, 2009 2:07 PM PST reply actions
PW just couldn't take Kenny out
and neither of those guys can score really which makes it nearly impossible to use both at the same time.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Dec 6, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
Unfortunately
He took Kenny out in crunch time. I guess he hit the 18-rebound maximum.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 6, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions
Kenny defends the 3 ball?
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Dec 6, 2009 3:33 PM PST up reply actions
Kenny defended Amare
very well. Let someone else chase Frye.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 6, 2009 5:24 PM PST up reply actions
It was the 3s that beat us at the end
That was the ending I saw anyway. Did Amare score the last few minutes?
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Dec 6, 2009 6:01 PM PST up reply actions
Rephrase
Kenny defended the pick and roll and Amare very well.
I think Amare’s last hoop was when he ran over Beno, but his pick and roll action with Nash set the table for everything else.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 6, 2009 6:06 PM PST up reply actions
Plus they got quite a few tipbacks and boards
and second chances to score in the last few minutes. Those were rebounds Kenny was eating up earlier.
But you’re right, it was a great move to take out a guy with 18 rebounds in crunch time.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Dec 6, 2009 6:08 PM PST up reply actions
Not taking anything for granted
No JO+ At home should be a win.
But the HEAT have given the Kings problems over the year even when they were 15-67 two years ago. They destroyed the Kings by 21 and was up 20 at Arco in the first half.
D-Wade is amazing but the Kings should win tonight.
Prediction: SAC 104 MIAMI 100
BOOK IT!
Bold prediction
Tyreke stuffs Wade. Old school stuff with his hand completely blocking his shot the whole way.
Just once before Wade learns just how good Tyreke is and adjusts.
To finish that bold prediction
Wade hit’s two free throws at the end of that play.
by Smills91 on Dec 6, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Bold prediction
section214 gets a call from his account representative and gets upgraded to a suite for this game.
Hey Bluejohn, I guess that does make me an elitist! So long, suckers! :)
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Bold prediction
I WILL make it to the game, no matter what. I’m just on the way back from an unexpected trip to Napa and my tickets are waiting at home.
The undefeated streak will stand tall after tonight!! D Wade and the Heat are going down!!!!
Godfather of the "nice ass" movement.... the future begins now...
by edm7 on Dec 6, 2009 5:17 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Run eddie run!
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Dec 6, 2009 5:18 PM PST up reply actions
Bold prediction.
A surprise meeting will interrupt my Gamecast-watching as the Kings win by 8. Evans stakes Kings to a lead in the first half, Wade almost overhauls it in the fourth quarter. Noce and Haslem jaw at each other after Noce draws a charge from Wade.
Oh, and Chalmers plays about 8mins total.
There can only be one Noce!
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