On losing, the odds, Rubio, and the "untouchables"

by eduardo_m7 on Feb 1, 2009 1:24 AM PST

Have a couple topics I wanted to give my take on and instead of replying individually in different posts I thought I would just do it in one big post. Maybe others have something similar on their mind so now we all have a place to discuss. Anyways... here I go. Enjoy... or not

Ping Pong Balls

Especially in game threads, many people have mentioned how this team needs to lose to get more ping pong balls and increase our probability of landing the #1 pick to the draft. I've said it already and, why lie, it really bugs me that some haven't realized this yet: the worst record in the league does not guarantee you will get the #1 pick!

I finally had a chance to look up some stats and since 1995 only twice the team with the worst record got the first pick in the draft: the Cavs in '03 when they picked LeBron and the Magic in '04 when they got Superman (kinda weird that it happened in back-to-back years). So out of 14 times only twice (or only 14% of the time) has this happened. I hope this clears some stuff up. Yes, having the worst record gives you a better probability of getting the first pick but history proves that it is no guarantee. It's a toss up, a lucky draw, and no matter how bad your record is you are not picking first automatically.

On the same topic, there's also a lot of comments about tanking. I don't think those comments are necessary with this team. We don't need to lose on purpose, this team loses very well even when trying (or should I say when not trying). This team is not going to win that many games so why not root for them to win some? We really don't need to wish for losses for two reasons: 1) They are going to come anyway, and 2) no matter how many L's we accumulate in that column we may still not get the number 1 pick.

Draft

I guess this could be my chance of a coming out party.... no, not that kind. The kind where I officially announce my Ricky Rubio endorsement. It's cool to see where everyone stands in terms of the draft so I guess this is my chance. I'm aware this all depends on him declaring this year so I'm assuming he will.

A couple quick points why I would draft Rubio. I strongly believe the Kings need to draft a PG with their high pick. After seeing the team a couple times live I think we are missing a true floor general who can pass the ball and find his teammates in positions where they can succeed. I see Rubio as such a pass-first player who can, for example, help Speed get a couple extra easy buckets a game, find JT for high percentage baskets, penetrate and kick out to Cisco for mean 3s, and know when and where to post up Hawes to work under the hoop. IMO Rubio will not only bring this to the team, but also a defensive presence to the PG position. Our future PG is gonna have to be able to play wih the Chris Pauls and Deron Williams of the West for years to come so why not Ricky Rubio? Out of all the prospects I've seen I like him the most and believe he definitely fills a need on this team (one of many). By the way, my impressions on Rubio are all based on Olympic play and clips I've watched so a lot of it comes down to my personal opinion so of course, I can never go wrong with that.

What about the other prospects being discussed here? I'm not a big fan of college hoops so I'm definitely no expert but from what I've seen I'm not that impressed with Griffin. It's hard for me to compare college competition against real NBA competition and eventhough he has impressive numbers I'm not sure how they would translate to the NBA. Two more things: his game doesn't seem like it fits the type of game Petrie prefers and we already have JT, who I believe will cover our PF position for years to come.

Thabeet?? Intriguing to me but no way we are drafting him with that high of a pick. I guess we could draft down for the right package but I would have to see what package before making a decision.

So for now Rubio is my guy, and it doesn't hurt that he speaks Spanish... Gotta love a guy who speaks your language right? Minorities representing...

The Untouchables

One last quick point. I mentioned this on the game thread against the Bulls but I thought it's a cool topic to discuss. On a team with a bad record, is it possible to attach the untouchable tag to some players? I say yes. Isn't Kevin Durant untouchable on a 11-36 OKC team? How about OJ Mayo on a 11-35 Memphis team? Hell, I even mentioned Eric Gordon and the Clippers. OKC sucks with Durant, Grizzlies suck with Mayo, and the Kings suck with Martin.

Kevin is a very good player and effective scorer that are hard to find in this league. Is there really other player that you could trade Martin for that would improve this Kings team dramatically?? I don't think so. That's why to me he's "untouchable." Of course I would trade him for LeBron or Dwight Howard but wouldn't OKC and Memphis do the same with Durant and Mayo? Please don't let the horrible record distort your view of this team's players; some of them ARE part of our future and IMHO Kevin Martin is. We just need players who complement him and cover up for his deficiencies.

Hopefully Brad and Salmons are able to net us some nice pieces for the Kings continue to build this puzzle. I'll be watching, that's for sure.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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Comments

Untouchables

On a team this unsuccessful there are no real untouchables but at some point Petrie has to keep some foundation players to build on and I would think the list would start with Kevin, there’s only a handful of players who score more than him and at the end of the day you still have to put the ball in the hoop. I’m guessing that the other foundation players are Cisco, JT and Spence.

It doesn’t mean they aren’t tradable just that they aren’t likely to be traded. There is such a lack of talent on our team that in reality Petrie will listen to offers on everybody probably including Kevin.

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on Feb 1, 2009 10:29 AM PST reply actions

Not-likely-to-be-touched-ables then?

by DustyG on Feb 3, 2009 9:10 AM PST up reply actions

there you go

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on Feb 3, 2009 9:47 AM PST up reply actions

The points in favor of Rubio

He’s young (barely 19 when the season starts in 09), plays top notch defense, is a pass first type player, and a born leader. Some thinks he doesn’t have the athleticism to play PG, and some thinks that some of the other traits are a function of playing in a lesser league.

As far as untouchables, Martin is pretty much untouchable until July at least, because of his contract status. That is equally true of Cisco, only it extends to July 2010 for Cisco. (It’s impossible to trade a guy that is BYC or PPP to a team that doesn’t have cap room, and right now, only Memphis has cap room. Get it? It’s impossible to do.) Beyond Kevin & Cisco’s contract status, I don’t think either guy is a problem long term for this franchise. The rebuilding process has started, and they’re both key pieces for the future. I believe JT, Donte, and Shawes all belong in that group as well. I’m not convinced anyone else could be, but that’s already 5 guys at 4 positions, and if you draft Rubio, that’s 6 guys at 5 positions. You only have 5 positions for 5 players at a time, and you have to satisfy your best players with playing time. In other words, it’s always possible you have too much talent. Fans don’t think that way, but franchises do. It’s important to have stars and role players. Cisco is a valuable role player. Martin is a valuable star. And so it goes on as such.

Now, does this team stink? Yes, it does. Is that all Kevin Martin’s fault? No. Is that any one player’s fault? No, but several players who aren’t performing to last season’s levels (Miller, Udrih) probably hurt this team far more than anyone in management could have believed. And dem’z da breakz. You live with ‘em, and you move on. I don’t expect rebuilding to last 5 years if Petrie & the Maloof’s work together moving forward. If they don’t work together, it could last 5 years. It’s really hard to say.

Loved the post Ed.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

I am the stone that builder refused..I am the visual...The inspiration..That made lady sing the blues....I'm the spark that makes your idea bright.....The same spark that lights the dark....So that you can know your left from your right...I am the ballot in your box....The bullet in your gun...The inner glow that lets you know...To call your brother son....The story that just begun...The promise of what's to come...And I'm 'a remain a soldier till the war is won....

by pookeyguru on Feb 1, 2009 11:57 AM PST reply actions

The odds of finishing with the worst record and getting the #1 pick are 25%

But the odds of ending up with eh worst record and getting no worst than the 4th pick is 100%.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Feb 1, 2009 3:56 PM PST reply actions

Exactly

I don’t think there is any shame in this. If you win, win a championship go for it all. If you lose, lose well, with a purpose and go for the best chance of improvement.

It is the big elephant in the room – don’t you think that is the reason the interviews with management are always so vague? If you are the owners of the team you can’t come out and say “Yes, we suck and our best chance of getting better is to lose every single game remaining just to have the oppurtunity to have more ping pong balls and draft a player that may help us start our turnaround” But truly, isn’t that what us fans all want?

Load up the PP ball truck. The worst is fourth. How do you all feel if the Kings win 16 games, come in second or third in draft order they do the lottery thing and they end up with the fifth pick? or the third? Will those extra few wins you wanted so much during the season provide solace? Not for me. Go 0-33 from here on out, makes more sense. Will it taint the current team? Not any more than being one of the worst five teams versus being dead last. Wining is the only cure for bad memories.

Let me ask you – if the Kings trade John Salmons ( a bad move in my opinion unless you get back much more) and he goes to say – Portland – do you think he will be negatively effected because he played on a bad team? Nope, he won’t. He will be happy and play hard.

by betweentheeyes on Feb 1, 2009 5:05 PM PST up reply actions

and another thing...

do you really want the GD LA Clippers to have the worse record and then get the better draft pick? That would be way to low.

by betweentheeyes on Feb 1, 2009 5:12 PM PST up reply actions

Considering their history with top draft picks...

I’d be willing to pick right after them. :)

by misterbrister on Feb 2, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions

And in a surprise announcement...

…the Clippers select Michael Olowokandi with the 2009 #1 draft pick. Asked why his team would select a 33 year old center who was not in the draft and was widely panned as one of the all-time worst picks in the history of the universe, Clippers GM and Head Coach Mike Dunleavy replied, “I thought we were supposed to pick the worst player available. Is that not how this works? Oh shit.”

It explains so much.

A lonely Kings fan in a sea of gold and purple...

by Jaycee on Feb 4, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions

Salmons didn't look too unhappy yesterday

Vs OKC to be honest. Looked like he was having just a teeny lil bit of fun.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 1, 2009 10:19 PM PST up reply actions

Everyone seems to project a lot of hopes and dreams on Rubio

I hope he pans out for whoever gets him, but I think there’s very little info to go on.

This makes me very nervous.

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 1, 2009 9:43 PM PST reply actions

There isn't any more info on Rubio than there is Griffin

I’d relax. Lusting after young players is what it is.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 1, 2009 10:20 PM PST up reply actions

Only one opinion counts

I don’t believe Rubio has the speed to defend the Williams’ & Westbrooks of our conference. But, even if every poster on this site wants Rubio, it doen’t make any difference. GP is going to make the pick not them, so I stopped trying to argue my point. Now, I just hope someone who plays GREAT man defense, steps up in college.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Feb 1, 2009 11:13 PM PST up reply actions

You're telling me my opinion don't count

Cuz Petrie has the final call? Shit, I gotta take my ball home and go away, and never come back again. (What’s the chance of that happening HT?)

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 1, 2009 11:24 PM PST up reply actions

I don't know but miracles happen every day Pookey

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Feb 2, 2009 12:41 AM PST up reply actions

HaHa

Well not on this day it doesn’t HT.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 2, 2009 9:43 AM PST up reply actions

But even after noting that point separately

One might out that one of Rubio’s attritbutes is his defense. Whether it’s his passing lane defense (one thing I’ve seen specifically written), or his man to man defense, it’s a bit hard to tell. It would be equally as hard to tell from watching college also.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 1, 2009 11:25 PM PST up reply actions

His basketball IQ isn't in question

Only his speed and quickness. The times I’ve watched him, his defense reminds me of Cisco. Quick hands and plays the passing lanes well. But, can’t stay in front of quicker PG’s and relies on blocking their shots from behind.

In my Smores analogy from a previous post, I pointed out that until Martin improves his man defense, the Kings can’t afford to have 2 guards with poor defense. So, if Martin is going to be our future SG, we need a Great man defender at PG. And, I can’t see Rubio as a great defender. Our front court can’t continue to defend their own man and driving PG who blast past our backcourt players.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Feb 2, 2009 12:54 AM PST up reply actions

One last thought

If we do draft Rubio, assuming he enters this years draft, Speed with have another year to work on his defense because Rubio probably wont come over until 2010/2011. So, maybe it won’t be too bad. It all depends on Martin and the accuracy of my observations. And, the worst case senario, we end up trading Martin and/or Rubio.

Plus without a starting PG next year, we’ll get another top 5 pick in 2010, so we can draft another PG/SG then.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Feb 2, 2009 1:04 AM PST up reply actions

He could guard Marcus Williams

Does that count for anything?

by furious.d on Feb 2, 2009 2:08 PM PST up reply actions

But

wouldn’t that mean that Marcus Williams would actually have to get into a game?

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Feb 2, 2009 5:49 PM PST up reply actions

Call me a cynic but

I can’t seem to get too invested in the pro/con Rubio debate because

a) with our luck we won’t get a top 2 pick, and
b) he may not even declare this year anyway.

I know we wont know about a) for some time, but regarding b) whats the latest? I’ve heard it repeated numerous times that he’ll declare if he’s guaranteed a top 3 pick. But is there a link? Isn’t that pretty much certain anyway? DX has had the best success predicting drafts so far by my watch, and they don’t have him on the board. We’ll see, I guess.

by LPKingsFan on Feb 2, 2009 9:01 AM PST reply actions

There was some reference

like ‘unnamed sources close to Rubio say….’ a few weeks ago. Not much to go on, but thats where it came from.

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 2, 2009 9:40 AM PST up reply actions

Right now LP

It’s all speculation about Rubio. But, the general belief it would take awhile to get him over. In DX’s last entry of him, they mention his buyout is 7 million Euro’s, or just over 8.92 million dollars. His buyout won’t be cheap for awhile, because he’s a hot commodity.

Now, that being said, DX mentions that his team, DKG Joventut has buyout options on him until 2011, so unless he wants to come over when he’s 22, and I doubt that, then it would be a waste for him to delay coming over. If he’s a top 3 pick, and there’s a great chance he could be, then I would bet he would very much consider coming over for 3 reasons.

His buyout could run for 4 seasons on this current rookie contract, and the Kings would also pay 500 K of it. (Well they would if they were smart anyway.) He would be 23 at the end of his current contract. His parents don’t need a ton of his money; they’ve turned down endorsement deals for him since he was 16. He wasn’t even doing interviews until the Olympics. Now he’s 18 they can’t bar him from reporters, but he still isn’t obviously saying much. At this point, why?

Last but not least, I think what will determine if Rubio comes out is how many teams would select him int the top 3 (alot in the lottery I would assume). It’s worth remembering that much of this is conjecture, but that A) the buyout probably won’t stop him B) if he’s in the draft for good then he can decide what he wants to do; entering and not coming over is a decision he can make later on C) He stands to gain more financially if he comes to the US this season, as opposed to 2010 because of the endorsement opportunities he’s likely to get in Europe alone. Who knows what kind of opportunities he could get in a market like Sacramento.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 2, 2009 10:02 AM PST up reply actions

James Harden

I honestly don’t think Rubio will enter this draft. Draft express also has us getting Harden, but I don’t see how a Martin/Harden lineup is plausible given their size. There hasn’t been much talk about him considering it’s not a position of need, but what is the general consensus on him?

Hypothetically, if Griffin is taken and Rubio/Monroe don’t enter, how do you see the draft shaping up for the Kings? I hope I don’t get ripped too hard for this, but what do you think about a pick on Harden and a sign and trade with Bosh involving KMart.

by SeeingStars on Feb 3, 2009 12:24 PM PST up reply actions

Nobody will say Rubio is coming out

Because nobody knows. Therefore, until Rubio announces he’s entering the draft, no site will have him on there. It’s just that simple.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 3, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions

Same is true

for all other draft-eligible players right? But they ended up on some draft boards.

by DustyG on Feb 3, 2009 2:59 PM PST up reply actions

The difference is

Rubio “supposedly” said he wasn’t coming out. And Rubio is a professional player in Spain who has a buyout, and it’s pretty prohibitive. That’s the reason he isn’t on there.

The truth is, he will probably declare for the draft depending on who finishes with the worst 5 records, and how many of them definitely need a PG.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 3, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions

But probably won't actually show up for a year or two...

just keep that in his pocket,

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 3, 2009 3:21 PM PST up reply actions

That makes wonder re the Maloofs and Petrie

Can they afford to make a pick that doesn’t sell tickets next year? Will they?

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 3, 2009 3:23 PM PST up reply actions

Yes they could

But, I don’t really think that’s the issue with Rubio. I think the issue is playing time, and let me ask you this, who is good enough on this roster to take that from him?

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 3, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions

If this kid was totally about money

HIs family would have taken the multiple endorsement offers already offered. They turn down media requests (a lot of them I would guess) and as such, they sought to create a normal childhood. My guess, and it’s only a guess, is that what Rubio has to offer from the NBA in 09 10 is a challenge he won’t get playing for JKG Joventut. It’s really up to any NBA team that selects him to convince him he won’t get lost in the rotation for a year. Can you imagine that the Kings would have a hard time selling that point?

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 3, 2009 3:45 PM PST up reply actions

So...

it’s not that simple is it?

by DustyG on Feb 4, 2009 11:12 AM PST up reply actions

Nope Never will be either

Come April, and Rubio has definitely said he won’t come out, then yeah, I was wrong. Until then, I’m going to assume that Rubio will enter this draft. He can always decide he doesn’t want to come over right away (although that isn’t to his advantage).

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 4, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions

Why isn't it to his advantage?

Its seems like a ‘cake and eat it too’ situation to me.

A high pick with guaranteed money just waiting for him whenever he decides to show up.

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 4, 2009 4:09 PM PST up reply actions

You can keep arguing it

I can keep making my points. It would be quite nice if you just stop it. You don’t seem to quite get it, and I’m tired of explaining it.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 5, 2009 12:07 AM PST up reply actions

I agree, we don't see it the same way

we’ll find out I suppose.

I still wonder which side of this discussion GP and the Maloofs will settle into.

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 5, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions

Now that I agree (how the Maloof's/GP see it)

But I know the smart way to approach the draft is not worrying about selling tickets. It’s building a winning team.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 5, 2009 1:42 PM PST up reply actions

The worst team in the league needs the best player available

Until we know who enters, your guess is as good as anyones. But, if whoever is the best player available should be our pick. The player with the most value around the league. Whether he ever plays for us, depends on who wants to trade something we need of equal value.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Feb 3, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions

I like the lottery system

It’s way too easy to tank. Tanking in the NFL doesn’t mean anything for you long term It could mean everything to a NBA team.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 3, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions

Rubio's Badalona is playing this Saturday

Against Unicaja Malaga, a top Spanish team (that Brandon Jennings suffered against last week), the game starts at 11am of Pacific time. It should be streamed so maybe it might be of your interest.

by KingsFanfromCentralEurope on Feb 2, 2009 11:26 AM PST reply actions

Thx for the heads up KFfCE

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 2, 2009 6:03 PM PST up reply actions