Every year we over-analyze. Around here, we step it up a notch and over-analyze on a daily basis. Through this abundance of regurgitated information and micro-analysis of every tiny detail, we overvalue some players and undervalue others. This is natural. And I think that, to an extent, it gets worse the more you follow a player. Case in point: Jason Thompson.
Quick sidenote: I am a huge fan of JT. But he is a classic example of how we may overvalue a guy based on watching him every day. We imagine what could be. We see that magical potential. Nothing has ruined more drafts that the idea of potential. That moment when you suddenly forget that the forest is made up of the individual, proverbial trees. Suddenly we're vehemently opposed to including a rookie in a deal for a proven all-star.
We do the same thing, to an even worse extent, with the draft. Every year, players remind me of players past. Good or bad. Overhyped or undervalued. Taking a look at some of this year's (projected) draft crop, these are the similarities I see.
Blake Griffin - Griffin reminds me of Michael Beasley. A guy who people aren't totally convinced about, but he's played well enough in college that people struggle to find an argument against. I'm not sold on him, just like I wasn't sold on Beasley.
Ricky Rubio - I'm including him in this as a way of mentioning who he reminds me of. We all know that there's a possibility that he won't enter the draft, so save it. If you try to start and argument about it, you will be stricken with a horrible STD. Rubio reminds me of Brandon Roy and Chris Paul. Wait, wait, pick the pieces of your exploded head up off the floor. I'm not talking about his style of play. Brandon Roy and Chris Paul were both the clear-cut best guards in their respective drafts. No offense to Deron Williams(he's awesome), but the Williams/Paul debate is a joke. In both years, they were the clear-cut best guards, and yet people found ways to question their value. Both were drafted later than they should have been.
Greg Monroe - Monroe reminds me of Kevin Love. In case you're not picking up on a theme, I'm not necessarily talking about specific skill sets. Kevin Love was knocked with the "not big enough" label, and Monroe is quickly going the same route.
Hasheem Thabeet - Thabeet is the guy I struggle to place. He reminds me a lot of guys like Robert Swift, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, or Pavel Podkolzin. There's the whole "you can't teach height" argument. But obviously these comparisons are unfair. Those were players who never played college ball. Maybe that's what he reminds me of the most. He reminds me of all the reaches for high school players or foreign prospects, even when you don't have enough body of work to really know anything for sure.
Stephen Curry - This one's tricky. Curry reminds me of D.J. Augustin and Jameer Nelson. Really good college players who were undervalued on the idea of their game not translating well to the NBA. Sadly, that last sentence also applies to Adam Morrison. Curry could go either way. I hope he goes towards the path of Augustin and Nelson. I'm a Curry fan.
Brandon Jennings - Jennings reminds me a lot of O.J. Mayo. Tons of hype, tons of physical skills, questions around work ethic and attitude. I think Jennings make a similar transition. He'll go a little lower than he had once been projected, but he'll end up being a very solid contributor and will likely become a star.
Obviously this is not an all-encompassing list. These are my observations and reflections on a few guys I've payed a lot of attention to so far. March Madness will be upton us soon (thank god!), and that's always a great time to finalize opinions and see how certain players will react when the chips are down.