This is How You Remind Me

by Exhibit G on Feb 12, 2009 7:07 AM PST

Every year we over-analyze. Around here, we step it up a notch and over-analyze on a daily basis. Through this abundance of regurgitated information and micro-analysis of every tiny detail, we overvalue some players and undervalue others. This is natural. And I think that, to an extent, it gets worse the more you follow a player. Case in point: Jason Thompson.

Quick sidenote: I am a huge fan of JT. But he is a classic example of how we may overvalue a guy based on watching him every day. We imagine what could be. We see that magical potential. Nothing has ruined more drafts that the idea of potential. That moment when you suddenly forget that the forest is made up of the individual, proverbial trees. Suddenly we're vehemently opposed to including a rookie in a deal for a proven all-star.

We do the same thing, to an even worse extent, with the draft. Every year, players remind me of players past. Good or bad. Overhyped or undervalued. Taking a look at some of this year's (projected) draft crop, these are the similarities I see.

Blake Griffin - Griffin reminds me of Michael Beasley. A guy who people aren't totally convinced about, but he's played well enough in college that people struggle to find an argument against. I'm not sold on him, just like I wasn't sold on Beasley.

Ricky Rubio - I'm including him in this as a way of mentioning who he reminds me of. We all know that there's a possibility that he won't enter the draft, so save it. If you try to start and argument about it, you will be stricken with a horrible STD. Rubio reminds me of Brandon Roy and Chris Paul. Wait, wait, pick the pieces of your exploded head up off the floor. I'm not talking about his style of play. Brandon Roy and Chris Paul were both the clear-cut best guards in their respective drafts. No offense to Deron Williams(he's awesome), but the Williams/Paul debate is a joke. In both years, they were the clear-cut best guards, and yet people found ways to question their value. Both were drafted later than they should have been.

Greg Monroe - Monroe reminds me of Kevin Love. In case you're not picking up on a theme, I'm not necessarily talking about specific skill sets. Kevin Love was knocked with the "not big enough" label, and Monroe is quickly going the same route.

Hasheem Thabeet - Thabeet is the guy I struggle to place. He reminds me a lot of guys like Robert Swift, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, or Pavel Podkolzin. There's the whole "you can't teach height" argument. But obviously these comparisons are unfair. Those were players who never played college ball. Maybe that's what he reminds me of the most. He reminds me of all the reaches for high school players or foreign prospects, even when you don't have enough body of work to really know anything for sure.

Stephen Curry - This one's tricky. Curry reminds me of D.J. Augustin and Jameer Nelson. Really good college players who were undervalued on the idea of their game not translating well to the NBA. Sadly, that last sentence also applies to Adam Morrison. Curry could go either way. I hope he goes towards the path of Augustin and Nelson. I'm a Curry fan.

Brandon Jennings - Jennings reminds me a lot of O.J. Mayo. Tons of hype, tons of physical skills, questions around work ethic and attitude. I think Jennings make a similar transition. He'll go a little lower than he had once been projected, but he'll end up being a very solid contributor and will likely become a star.

Obviously this is not an all-encompassing list. These are my observations and reflections on a few guys I've payed a lot of attention to so far. March Madness will be upton us soon (thank god!), and that's always a great time to finalize opinions and see how certain players will react when the chips are down.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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Interesting observations Ex G

First I think Griffin could go either way. I have not heard any Tim Duncan comparisons, and until then, I’m just not sold.

The Rubio point perked my ears: Huh? If the Kings do pick him I hope that is the case.

I think Jennings stock will be determined by his private workouts. Particularly in how he acts more than anything. I’ve seen it written on DX that there are some scouts who believe he has the highest upside of the draft. I don’t think that’s true. I think that would be Rubio. That being said Jennings is a quality talent that a team like the Pacers, Suns, Clippers or any late lottery team will likely focus on. Where Jennings goes in this draft could mean the lynch pin of all kind of things.

Thabeet is a tough guy to place. I wouldn’t pick him with a top 10 pick. After that, I would. Something like that anyway.

Monroe & Curry are interesting wild cards. After that it’s difficult to say.

Good post Ex G.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

I am the stone that builder refused..I am the visual...The inspiration..That made lady sing the blues....I'm the spark that makes your idea bright.....The same spark that lights the dark....So that you can know your left from your right...I am the ballot in your box....The bullet in your gun...The inner glow that lets you know...To call your brother son....The story that just begun...The promise of what's to come...And I'm 'a remain a soldier till the war is won....

by pookeyguru on Feb 12, 2009 7:50 AM PST reply actions

I like the way of you're thinking

And as to someone watching college basketball just s very little, what would you say about Jrue Holiday and James Harden?

by KingsFanfromCentralEurope on Feb 12, 2009 8:24 AM PST reply actions

Hmm

I struggled with those two (hence why I left them out of the initial post). But let’s give it a go.

James Harden – Reminds me a lot of Eric Gordon. Efficient scorer, but not overly athletic or flashy. He’s going to get his points, and at the end of the night you’ll scratch you head and try to figure out how.

Jrue Holliday – Chad Ford compares him to Westbrook, and I don’t think it’s a horrible comparison. But I haven’t seen enough of this guy to say for sure one way or the other. Draft-wise, he reminds me of a guy like Jarryd Bayless; a guy whose stock will rise after the season has ended, and he’ll end up a bit too high on many people’s draft boards (remember, Bayless was on many draft boards as a 4th overall pick).

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Feb 12, 2009 9:11 AM PST up reply actions

Gordon ripped a huge jam last night

What he doesn’t make up for ridiculous explosive athleticism he makes up for in raw power.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 12, 2009 9:17 AM PST up reply actions

But can you remember any of his other 28 points?

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Feb 12, 2009 9:29 AM PST up reply actions

Yeah

But I didn’t watch all of the game either. He got into the lane several times. He isn’t overly athletic by any stretch. He’s smooth and powerful is the way I’d describe him.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 12, 2009 9:38 AM PST up reply actions

sounds a bit like Paul Pierce

by betweentheeyes on Feb 12, 2009 11:57 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah that's a pretty good comparison

Only Gordon isn’t really as tall.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 14, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions

I would prefer Mitch Richmond as a comparison though

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 14, 2009 2:25 PM PST up reply actions

if he can D up like the Rock

watch out!

by betweentheeyes on Feb 14, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions

You most likely know more college basketball, but I don’t see the Harden/Gordon comp. on paper. He (Harden) looks to have a good all-around game 5rb/4ast while Gordon appears to be more of a volume scorer. I’m not at all a college basketball enthusiast so I don’t have much faith when I say this, but Harden seems like one of this draft’s safest/worthy/lottery pick.

by SeeingStars on Feb 12, 2009 9:50 PM PST up reply actions

I'll argue a little more on Thabeet

Not enough body of work to judge? Three years of college ball is a lot these days. Defensive Player of the Year (probably two years in a row) is a fair indication of what he can add at the next level pretty soon.

Is he going to electrify the arena with his dazzle play after play? Nope, not a dazzle guy except for the sensational blocked shots he throws down with ease.

Surrounded by shooters, he kicks the ball back out for the open shot like you rarely see in the ‘me first’ attitude of college and the pro’s.
He runs the court very very well.
He boxes out with excellent ease and willingness.
He defends the paint like no one in college ball. Almost never falls for a pump-fake under the basket.
Sounds like a guy that Petrie might like a lot if he thinks it through.

When your shots aren’t falling you need to be able to defend the bucket. Hell, even when your shots ARE falling.
He could be your anchor though for a long long time.

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 12, 2009 11:08 AM PST reply actions

Experience

I’m the first to admit that I don’t follow college ball very closely. Sometimes this leads to me missing some nuances, but it also adds clarity. All I remember hearing about Thabeet last year was that he was raw and unpolished. He may have won DPY, and may be in line for another, but his skill base seems to be “I’m really tall and guys can’t figure out how to get around me.”

Here’s a list of players that I don’t think that strategy will work against: Duncan, Shaq, Nene, Yao, Garnett, LeBron, Nowitzki, Amare, Bynum, Boozer, Okur, Bogut, Chandler, Camby, Dampier, Dalembert, Gasol, Dwight Howard, Ilgauskas, Jefferson, J. O’Neal, Bosh…

Sure, most of that list are stars, but that’s a significant portion of the main opposition that will not be affected just because a guy is tall.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Feb 12, 2009 2:06 PM PST up reply actions

That list reminds me of just how many of the top guys are 'Maybe's

With Thabeet you do know what you will get – a defensive force.

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 12, 2009 11:10 AM PST reply actions

Or -

at least as much of a defensive force as JB Carroll, Chris Washburn, Justin Williams, Shawn Bradley, Saer Sene, Robert Swift, Patrick O’Bryant…on the other hand, he could be Mutombo or Chandler.

Look, I like Thabeet. I think that he is a top five pick right now. But saying that you know that he will be a defensive force is a little presumptuous, don’t you think? I mean, how do you translate his skills to NBA success when the jury is out on all of these guys (Griffin, Rubio, all of them).

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Feb 12, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions

True

If you can’t even evaluate how good Thabeet’s competition is (e.g. Griffin, Monroe, Johnny Flynn… all those other Big East teams), how the hell can you say how well he will defend against the Western Conference? Although based on our record, maybe we should be more concerned with the Eastern Conference.

by misterbrister on Feb 12, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions

Brister

I think we should be worried about everybody.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 12, 2009 1:54 PM PST up reply actions

I went to the Warriors-Blazers game tonight in Oaktown

Sounds backwards perhaps, but Oden reminded me of Thabeet.

by betweentheeyes on Feb 13, 2009 12:00 AM PST up reply actions

Bad comparison

Different bodies, different skills, not sure Oden will ever be a good defender. I don’t recall him being anything other than a rebounder in college – not the NCAA Defensice Player of the Year = Twice.

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 13, 2009 12:17 AM PST up reply actions

He was drafted under the pretense of being a Defensive Force

he had famous blocks in the Ohio State run in the Tournament two years ago.

Tonight Oden altered shots and only dunked on offense. That is what reminded me of Thabeet. He also fouled persistently and sat out much of the game with foul trouble.

by betweentheeyes on Feb 13, 2009 12:30 AM PST up reply actions

Did you realize

we already have a two-time NCAA defensive player of the year on our roster? I was looking at the list of players who have won that award, and it doesn’t exactly inspire unwavering confidence.

Two- or three-time winners include one of the all-time greats (Duncan), a long-term defensive role player (Augmon), a good defensive role player who stuck around because of his toughness and work ethic (Battier), a guy who I really can’t evaluate because I haven’t seen him play (Okafor), and a bust (the one we have).

One-time winners include some greats (Mourning, Hill) and some guys I’ve never heard of (Amaker, McIlvane, Linehan).

To sum it all up, these people tend to be good defensive NBA players, but winning this award— even multiple times— doesn’t constitute much of a guarantee. The ones who really became great were the ones who had an offensive game to compliment their defense.

by twasserm on Feb 13, 2009 6:40 AM PST up reply actions

(pulling a Pookey here)

… and in defense of betweentheeyes, Oden won it as a Freshman and Thabeet did not. If he hadn’t gotten injured, he likely would have won it as many seasons as he decided to stick around the NCAA.

by twasserm on Feb 13, 2009 6:43 AM PST up reply actions

twasserm with tha smackdown!

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Feb 13, 2009 7:16 AM PST up reply actions

Shelden is actually pretty good on D

and I think he’s been badly underused. At thie level he’s got a size problem that negates a lot of his effectiveness

Thabeet won’t have that to say the least

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 13, 2009 10:16 AM PST up reply actions

Of course Thabeet won't have the same problem

But there could be a parallel problem. Shelden overwhelmed people in college with his strength and girth. That strategy didn’t work in the pro’s. As you said, he’s still a relatively good defender, but not good enough to get a regular rotation spot (in Atlanta or here).

Thabeet overwhelms people in college with his height. Will that work in the NBA? Probably to an extent. But people certainly won’t be overwhelmed like they are in college.

by twasserm on Feb 13, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions

I think after Shelly won the second time

they considered changing the name back to the “Henry Iba Corinthian Award”, which is much much cooler as a conversation started anyway.

by betweentheeyes on Feb 13, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions

Ahhhhhh!

and then he puts up 25 pts, 20 fuckin’ rebounds and 9 blks!

oh well……………………

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth - and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 14, 2009 5:26 PM PST up reply actions

I get you

But do we really need anything more direly than paint D?
( I agree I was a little too certain about that – Pookey exposure I guess)

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 12, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions

We need lot's of help inside on "D"

But we can’t let that cloud our judgment. That is, if it comes to pass that James Harden is a better pro prospect than Thabeet, then you take Harden and sort it out later. The history of NBA teams that have passed on a superior talent for need is long and ugly. I don’t want to join that list. But, if Thabeet is the best player when it is our turn to pick, grab him, grin, and hope for the best.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Feb 12, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions

I'm just not convinced

That after Griffin, there’s much difference that will be clear in the 2-7 picks. There’s time, i may be wrong, but if thats true, you pick need from that pool of fish.

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 12, 2009 11:59 AM PST up reply actions

I'm not convinced yet, either

There is still a lot of time between now and the draft, but the current state of the Kings has forced us to turn our attention to the college game much earlier than usual. I’m betting the folks in Boston aren’t really scouring the college box scores right now.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Feb 12, 2009 12:16 PM PST up reply actions

I was just thinking the same thing

saaaad

So imitate the action of the tiger!
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favoured rage.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect,

Now set the teeth....and teach them how to war.
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Feb 12, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions

That's the thing

We have to take the best player available, and more than that, GP has to make a list of players that are worth the slot they’re going to be picked at.

Obviously 5 guys are going to be taken with the first 5 picks, but of those 5, how many will be good NBA players? Various threads around here the last couple months show…not as many as you’d think.

This will be GP’s first chance to pick Top 5 most likely, I think ever, I hope he gets a high-quality basketball player. If he doesn’t think one’s going to be available where we pick, he needs to give up the pick. That’s why I value flexibility very highly right now. We’ll have the chance to land a major piece of the puzzle this summer with our pick, but we have little direction as to what that piece will be today.

I’m all for Thabeet if he turns into something between Mutombo and Chandler. We just can’t miss with the pick, and for that we’re relying on GP.

by ForThree on Feb 12, 2009 12:04 PM PST up reply actions

Hmm

a horrible STD

There are good STDs?

by Tom Ziller on Feb 12, 2009 12:25 PM PST reply actions

It's all relative

I consider children to be STDs, but some people seem to think they’re good.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Feb 12, 2009 12:26 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs

I applaud you for honesty

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 12, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions

Then we have all been STDs

and that IS horrible

by betweentheeyes on Feb 13, 2009 12:02 AM PST up reply actions

Only in my case

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Feb 14, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions

For some folks

an STD is at least proof that you’re gettimg some.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Feb 12, 2009 12:28 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs

great medical trivia tie-in

“Dyspareunia is better than no pareunia”

by betweentheeyes on Feb 13, 2009 4:29 PM PST up reply actions

a classic example of how we may overvalue a guy

When it comes to JT, you pose an interesting question. Are we overvaluing or undervaluing him? Is he overvalued because of who he’s replacing? Certainly, anyone who comes in to replace SAR, K9, Shelden, & MM, is going to be seen as an improvement. And, lord knows, Kings fans love hustle guys, like BJax, Pollard, & Cisco. But, as great as hustle guys are, they aren’t generally starters or stars.

JT shows hustle and energy, size , & some offensive skills. Good face up jump shot, good movement without the ball, & good two hand dunk, but nothing outstanding. Everything else is based on potential. Man defense, low post offense, shot blocking, & consistent rebounding aren’t there yet. Will he develop some or all of these skills, and what is his eventual potential. Do we know for sure? Are we overvaluing him because we haven’t had a PF this good since we had a healthy Webber?

So, if we could trade for any other PF in the NBA, who would YOU be willing to trade JT for straight up. Or would it be easier to say for which starting PF wouldn’t you trade JT. But, the answer will be based on whether you overestimate his potential or underestimate it. Those who overestimate it wouldn’t trade him for many of the other PF’s. And, those who underestimate him would trade him for most of the others. And, that my friends is the problem with POTENTIAL. So, draft based on current talent, and only use potential when you trust your own judgement and only as a tiebreaker.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Feb 12, 2009 1:44 PM PST reply actions

Trades could change team needs

I think it is early to be arguing over team needs until the trade deadline is over. We have all seen the list of trade possibilities and who knows what Petrie is cooking up.

It sounds like Rubio isn’t going to enter the draft until 2010. So everyone please quit getting your hopes up. After Griffin I agree that there could be a number of guys that could be suprising pros. I think we need to wait until the trade deadline and to see the direction Petrie wants to take the team.

by MITCH FRONTAGE on Feb 12, 2009 4:08 PM PST reply actions

Ahem...

I’m including him in this as a way of mentioning who he reminds me of. We all know that there’s a possibility that he won’t enter the draft, so save it. If you try to start and argument about it, you will be stricken with a horrible STD.

Sorry, but you were warned.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Feb 12, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions