A possible look at where the Kings salary could end up if they do the Rose/Jeffries/Robinson trade

First, this requires some guessing on where the salary cap will end up being next season. My guess is that it will dip by close to 2 or 3 millon dollars, and as such, the luxury tax will drop to somewhere between 68 and 69 million dollars. (This would also mean that the salary cap will likely end up at 54 or 55 million dollars. It also means the mid level will be less, but that isn't a problem right?) The chances of the salary cap going up is just too remote, and it will be practically impossible to say exactly. That's a story that will be closely followed all summer because once the idea of the type of revenues the NBA made (that's where the salary cap comes from). Let's backtrack a bit, and explain some of what I mean.

First, the salary cap is based off BRI (Basketball Related Income), and for an explanation of what that is, read this. Next, the salary cap is set at 57% of BRI, and because usually what drives revenue is merchandising, as well as ticket sales, and those are markedly down. The only reason the salary cap won't fall off a cliff next season is the TV contract. Which is where the large portion of money comes anyway.

I refuse to trust Hoopshype as I've come across too many error's in their computations of salaries and others things. As such, I refuse to use them. I use ShamSports or DX, which are basically the same thing cuz the guy who writes Sham does the DX info now, and the Bee also has a quality page on this as well. (It doesn't help for the Knicks, but it's not greatly needed anyway.)

Let me first kick this all of by noting the only place where I've seen mention of this rumor, is by Chad Ford, and it's not like he's always right. But, like anybody, he's right some of the time.

Basically the rumor he states is as following: Jared Jeffries, Nate Robinson and Malik Rose for Kenny Thomas and Brad Miller.

Now, combined Miller & Thomas make 21.025 million next season alone. That's just for next season. (Computing this season doesn't make much sense, but it would probably save the Kings about 2 million bucks in salary this season as well. It's also a perfect time to note that the Kings should have no issue adding Douby in the equation to make things work out. Bobby Brown is an equally useful substitution here as well. In fact, I'd rather the Kings dump Brown at this point than Douby.)

If you combine the fact that Rose's contract expires this season, and Jeffries has 2 more years after this one, but one of them being an ETO, you're looking at a guaranteed salary of just under 6.05 million next season, and that's for Jared Jeffries. What you do with Nate Robinson is up to you. Either you don't include him in your off-season plans where you let him walk, or you probably extend the tender offer off his rookie contract that the Kings can currently offer. (Note: Because the Kings didn't extend the options of Douby or Williams, they can't, and both will be FA's this off-season regardless.) Robinson's tender offer is: 2.91 million next season.

Essentially, you're looking at 9 million if you keep both, and just over 6 million dollars if you only keep Jeffries. Of course, there's also the extra nearly 6.9 million owed Jeffries in the 10-11 season as well.

The way I look at it For Three is simple. You pay 13 million over 2 seasons for 1 guy who won't mean much in the grand scheme of things, or you pay just over 20 million for 1 season to 2 players who won't help you much, if at all, and you end up trying to make a push for the 2010 Free Agent marketplace.

Personally, in order for the team to keep it's competitive edge, it needs to save some money, and look to keep itself on the right track by rebuilding through the draft and dumping extra unnecessary salary. It would make sense that the Kings do this deal regardless of the economic climate.

To Play Devil's advocate for the moment

Let's assume for a moment that 80% of Shareef's money is coming off the cap. (The exactly number doesn't need to be figured out right now. I'm willing to bet the Kings will get closer to 90 percent, but for right now, I'm going to say 80 percent to be on the safe side.) Next year Shareef is slated to make 6.6 million dollars. If you take away 80% of that, you're essentially left with 1.3 million dollars you're paying. So, let's assume that Shareef's salary for next season is 1.3 million dollars, while noting because of the medical retirement, that he will get his full salary.

Let's also assume that Nate Robinson or Malik Rose won't be re-signed. Let's assume that Bobby Brown goes in the trade to get Rose, Robinson and Jeffries. Let's assume that Douby is not re-signed. Let's assume that Shelden Williams is also not re-signed. Let's assume that Mikki Moore's buyout happens, and he will be on the cap for 2 million dollars. (I think it will be too much of a hassle to trade Mikki with his trade kicker.) So, already, we have 3.3 million dollars tied up onto 2 player who won't be on the team next season. (Ironic, but that was the cap when the team moved to Sacramento in 1985.) Let's of course assume that Bobby Jackson doesn't return either.

• Shareef Abdur Rahim & Mikki Moore: 3.3 Million together after you factor their medical retirement/buyout
• Kevin Martin will be making just under 9.7 million next season
• John Salmons will be making just under 5.5 million
• Beno Udrih just over 6 million
• Francisco Garcia will make around 5.8 million next year
• Spencer Hawes just under 2.35 million
• Jason Thompson just under 2.1 million
• Donte Greene will be making 870 K
• Jared Jeffries just under 6.05 K
• Nate Robinson (if he accepts the qualifying offer) would be just under 2.92 million
• The Kings 1st round pick will likely cost anywhere from 3.7 to 4.7 million dollars next year in whatever salary slot
• The Kings likely will be paying anywhere from 800 K to 1.4 Million on the Houston 1st rounder if it comes over
• The Kings, with the worst record, also have the highest 2nd round pick,available, and that's likely to yield a quality player if they play their cards right, but it will cost around 445 K like Bobby Brown has this season
  

Now, I added all these things up together. The actual figure, assuming the Kings sign Robinson to the tender offer, and sign all 3 of their picks, comes out to: 50,242,167 dollars.

Now, I did add all the actual figures together, and I rounded off on the totals above. That's included all 3 draft picks at the highest possible money available, Robinson taking the tender offer from the team, and the KIngs not trading away John Salmons as you may have noticed. Keep in mind: This is a conversative guestimation at what team salary will look at next season. As in, it's not likely to be any higher despite a top pick in the draft, another low teens draft pick, and a top pick in the 2nd round as well. (That would be the greatest scenario for the Kings to be honest.)

In otherwords, doing this deal makes financial sense to the team. If they can dump John Salmons for an extra pick in 2010, and save money on his salary as well, it's just another win-win for a franchise lacking that recently.