Crystal Ball

These days the Kings resemble those teams of the early to mid 90s when Petrie first showed up.  When you look at last year into this year, this team had ugly contracts for players who's skills were on the decline or had left the building long ago.  And to further the similarity between the two eras of horrific Kings basketball, Petrie has to play a lot of the waiting game.  Either wait for the contracts to expire (simply because nobody wants the player eventhough the contract is expiring) or wait for the players contract to expire which will allow them to be tradeable. 

Now that I have stated the obvious, I have some concerns about the direction of this team right now (shocking I know that any of us would have concerns).  Here are my concerns:

1.  The leader of this team (he is by default simply because he makes the most) is Kevin Martin.  Is he "The Guy"?  Looking at Championship calibur teams, they all have "The Guy".  So IF (big stress here) GP can get players in here to compliment a coaching style that will make this team a contender again, will Kevin be the guy down the stretch of games, or take this team on his back, or get in someone's face and tell him to step it up?  Personally I don't see it.  He is a nice player, but I don't see him leading this team, and now I think his contract is not tradeable anytime soon.

2. Are the young players going to develop like we hope they can?  I know, I know, they need time and it is early in the two recent draft picks careers.  But this has to be a concern simply because there aren't going to be a lot of players on this team after this year.  So are the Kings going to build in the draft or get role players in free agency. The last part scares the hell out of me, simply because we may have to overpay to get an average player.

3.  A Chris Webber trade and Vlade Divac signing simply aren't out there.  The only player that we would be able to trade to get something of a "stud" or player with potential back is Kevin Martin.  But, his salary increases every year and reaches close to $13million by the end.  Also, he has been injury prone the last couple of years, would a team really want to trade their valued players for an injury prone, $13million a year player?

4.  The free agent crop after this year and next year, to put it bluntly, is crap.  First of all, Lebron, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade aren't coming here.  So what does that leave?  Either star players who will be over 30, but will still command the big bucks and average players.  If we sign the over 30 crowd, then we will be right back where we are now.  If we sign the average players, who on this team is going to be the leader?

So here is what is known:

• Kevin Martin, signed thru 12/13, SG (nice player, in the second tier of "stars" in the league,  but may be overpaid)
• Nocioni, signed thru 11/12 (team option in 12/13), SF (nice role player, could serve a purpose for this team
• Beno, signed thru 11/12 (player option 12/13), PG (probably wouldn't have signed him this year, if he played like this last year, but we have him and I am holding out hope that he gets it together, I think better off of the bench to give a spark)
• Spencer, signed thru 9/10 (team option 10/11), C (I think we are all high on Spencer.  He may not be Vlade or Brad, but I see a nice future for him and want him to stick around and at the minumum be an energy guy and continue to grow)
• Francisco, signed thru 12/13 (team option 13/14) SF (I think we all understand that with Cisco, you get inconsistency.  His contract I think is very tradeable and there are teams who could use him.  I don't see him being a piece to championship puzzle, but you never know.  At the very least he could complete a trade at a later date).
• Jason Thompson, signed thru 09/10 (with team options in 10/11 and 11/12 with qualifying offer in 12/13) PF (Jason is going to be around for a while.  This could be "The Guy" in the future, which is why I think Kevin is expendable.  This is going to be your low-post creator who is going to fill the stat sheet.  His contract is structured nicely and I don't see him going anywhere soon.)
• Cedric "The Entertainer" Simmons, Free Agent after this year , PF(could be a nice bench guy, wouldn't be too disappointed if he got a little raise in pay and stuck around to fill a role).
• Donte "The Enigma" Greene, signed thru 09/10 (with team options for 10/11 and 11/12) SF (the good news is he is cheap for the years to come and he has got potential up the ass.  I could see him being a late bloomer towards the end of his contract, so luckily the decision with him won't be until later)

Well there you have it.  According the HoopsHype, these are the salaries that are committed for the next couple of years.  I think most of the players that were traded for recently will be gone after this year, except of course for Nocioni who is signed.  Simmons is a flip of the coin.  So who do we get to fill in the missing championship pieces?

Well, we have two first rounders this year (at worst we should get a top three pick this year and then in another post somone mentioned we get Houston's first round pick as well, so that will be somewhere between 15 and 20 probably).  The Houston pick may be used as trade bait, but don't be suprised if GP keeps that one and trades the lottery pick position.  This is for two reasons, 1) money (the Kings are pretty much broke) and 2) GP never drafts anyone who the "experts" think he will draft.  He probably has his eye on a lesser-know player that he knows he can get later in the draft and this lottery pick could be worth a lot to another team.  Also, chances are very good the Kings will be in the position after next year, minus the extra first rounder.

So now to free agents.  The class of 09/10 and 10/11 is pretty much crap.  The superstars aren't coming here. Now, depending on who is drafted this and next year, the two players that I have my eye on are Randy Foye and Andrea Bargnani.

Randy is having a nice year.  He has size for a PG.  And he will be right at his prime in 2010 when he is a free agent.  It looks like he is restricted.

Bargnani is a young 7 footer that is also restricted in 2010.  He is having a real nice year and will also be in his prime in 2010.  If the Kings let either Thompson or Hawes go, he would be a nice replacement.

Again, these are the two that I see will be worth any substantial money that would be thrown out there. 

So, to wrap up this little post, the Kings are in a very precarious position.  The next year or two is going to set this team up for the 10 years following.  I think this period will also tell us if GP has lost his effectiveness as a GM and whether the organization needs to go in a different direction. 

So after you have read my War and Peace novel above, I have to admit that this year I haven't been able to watch a ton of basketball and some of my findings and comments are based on a combination of  the little bit of basketball I have seen, my fandom running wild, my edu-ma-cation process of basketball (thanks to pookey, section, ziller and the crew) and a lot of reaching. 

Now for my latest conspiracy theory.  Today the NBA is releasing its findings for a new Arena in the Cal-Expo area.  Here is my latest conspiracy:  If the Kings get the first pick, the the NBA, the City Council and State of Californi have reached an agreement and an arena is built and the Kings stay in Sacramento.  If they don't get the #1 pick, then Ziller may have to start a River Cats blog.  A stretch maybe, but not totally out of the realm of possibility.