My Trade Predictions

Kevin/Cisco could be traded, but due to their contract status, and the fact every team except Memphis is over the cap, then it’s hard to trade guys making their kind of money AND finding a way to make it acceptable for the Kings to trade either guy. If there wasn’t that protection, the Kings aren’t trading either guy. They just aren’t. If the Kings had won 25 games by the end of the year, and hadn’t been subject to record setting blowouts, nobody would talk about dump all these guys. Shitty years happen. Live with it folks.

I think Brad Miller is gone, as soon as Petrie can get cap room for him. If that happens, who knows? I think any John Salmons deal to Portland could include Kenny Thomas, if only because it’s the type of thing Portland could afford to eat, and not only that, it gives them an extra chip over the summer & beyond to get something for K9.

If you’re the Kings, you don’t turn down Shawn Marion because they won’t take Kenny Thomas. You just add Mikki Moore. That works money wise, and it probably keeps Miami from saying, oh yes you must take Marcus Banks back. (Or it should anyway. Plus, it gives Miami up front depth. And neither contract runs beyond 2010 either.)

As far as Beno, I could see his play improving under this new Kings system, meaning the Kings keep him and say fuck it, even if we draft Ricky Rubio, we still have buffer room for a young PG to learn the game, and our team can still get better as we move forward. There’s always a possibility that Beno becomes a bargain the farther his contract moves along. Having quality trade chips is a nice problem to have. If Carril hadn’t changed the offense with Natt, I wouldn’t feel this way. But I think Beno will see positive net gains that will make the Kings re-think about moving Beno.

If JT & Shawes are moved for a player like Amare Stoudemire, I’m going to cry. That’s just bad on so many levels. So many levels.

With the Terry injury in Dallas and their previous mild interest in Beno prior to that I’m Thinking Udrih and Salmons to Dallas for Bass Barea and Stackhouse. It might be done quickly after Beno’s 29

I think that we categorize, too harshly, everyone on this losing team. Salmons is a very good player, I tihnk he is a team player, but all pieces need to fit, and right now, he fits poorly. I hope that he is not traded for hope and promise as he is a proven commodity at a bargain price. He is the most perplexing of trade pieces.

Brad Miller – well, this abdominal strain has come about at an interesting time. I think his departure is imminent and his injury will recover when the trade he is involved in is announced. I am hopeful that his urine or blood or whatever manner in which chemical analysis is undertaken is done after February 19th. The guy can play, but I agree, it shouldn’t be here.

Cutting salary is a legitimite and smart direction in this scary up-ended economy. Positioning for the next CBA at the same time FA Fest arrives is a challenge that will expose many teams and the NBA as never before. Commisioner Stern will cement either his legacy or his shoes these next two seasons. It is my belief that JLevien will play much of the hand we see today. If that happens in the next ten days or by the summer it will happen, but don’t underestimate the economics of it all. The Maloofs have been very very quiet. The sub-prime crisis, the absence of credit and whatever leverage the owners of a Las Vegas Casino recently committed to expansion, with their other speculative ventures along with the new found vacancy rate of ARCO seating and the on/off committment of building a new arena take priority over committing increased capital to constructing a better team and a new coach.

In short, I am skeptical of what trading salaries out will bring in. Your odds of trade are right on, but it is not just what goes out, it is what comes back in return that will be telling. I think we are in for a surprise.

I think that your numbers are a little low, but only depending on the scenario. For instance, if the Kings are not just clearing salary, but are bringing back a legitimate player in return, I think the probability of Hawes or JT being included in the deal goes up, and thus, a rating of “3” or “4” would be on the low side. We are going to have to “give” if we are to “get.”

I’m personally hoping for a major shake-up, where Beno, Salmons, Miller, Moore & Thomas are going buh-bye. I realize that depending on what we get back, we might have to part with some pieces we didn’t want to give up.

And, yes, this maybe rather bold, especially given that he hasn’t “accomplished” anything yet, but if push came to shove, I’d rather keep JT over Martin. Seriously, I would. I think a bigman w/ JT’s potential is harder to find than a great scoring wing player (Martin). I mean, I know Martin will most likely be an All-Star player sooner than later, but my feeling is that Martin’s peak, if we’re lucky is being a Ray Allen-type of guy. He’s good…he’ll win you SOME games single-handedly, but he’s not going to be a leader and he’s not going to bring you a championship by himself.

Thus, the list of untouchables should start w/ JT, not Martin. Having said that, being able to keep JT & Martin together would be a great scenario, as only the addition of one more “star” player would get you deep in the playoffs.

Lastly, Pookey, I understand that Amar’e has his short comings, but the guy is a beast, and there’s no denying that. Are you seriously saying that if (IF) we could acquire Amar’e for, let’s say, Hawes, Miller & our HOuston pick, you wouldn’t!?! I respect your comments, but man, I have to totally disagree with that, because I’m telling you right now, regardless of what we get in the draft, Amar’e & JT up front w/ Martin and Garcia on the floor gives you a very competitive line up for years to come. Imagine adding Griffin, Rubio or Harden to that roster? Dude. That sounds good to me. Even if we traded Martin for Amar’e, I still like a line up that includes Amar’e and JT down low. It’d be one the best frontcourts in the league, especially if we still have Spence & draft Griffin. Our starting line up could have Amar’e, Griffin & JT at SF w/ Hawes coming off the bench (although I prefer JT at the 4). Or how about Amar’e, JT, Garcia, Harden & Brown?

All for naught, though. I haven’t seen one rumor that indicates the Kings are seriously in the mix for Amar’e.

On whether the decision will end up being simple salary clearing – or trying to land a good player another team doesn’t think they can afford ala Amare etc. In that case Bjax, SW, QD, MM – are all/some probably going as filler.

Your presumptions are based on salary only really. Who knows what GP and the Maloofs are thinking? They won’t say….

Calm will prevail there – unless some real potential comes back.

After thinking about all the trade rumors out there and working the trade machine a little bit, I’ve come up with the “worst-case scenario”* for February 20th. It is as follows:
SAC outgoing – Udrih, Miller, Thomas, Moore & Salmons. That doesn’t sound so bad, does it? I mean, I’m cool w/ getting Miller/Moore/K9 out of town. But, here’s where it gets kinda poopy…
…the incoming players COULD be Stackhouse, Wally Z, Eric Snow and Raef. This is based on trades w/ the Mavs, Cavs and P-Town. This would get us only expiring contracts and provide no legit players or pieces for the future.

While I really want the Kings to make a bunch of trades, I also want SOMETHING in return besides cap space. Something that would give us all a glimmer of hope. So, I guess if this is what we were looking at getting in return, would you all prefer NOT to make trades, or still go ahead with them? I personally feel that if this is all we could get back in return, GP should wait until the summer or next year, when teams will be even more desperate to get into the 2010 frenzy & thus, expiring contracts would be even more lucrative trade chips.

*Actually, the worst-case scenario, as the headline suggests, is losing Martin, JT or Hawes, and still having K9 on the roster, so aside from that, this is an attempt to demonstrate a realistic worst-case scenario, in which the Kings move a bunch of players and basically get nothing but cap space.

…That’s Amar’e. Yes, yet another Amar’e trade proposal:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=1727321157517263040&teams=2321212121&te=&cash=

I’m thinking Salmons, Hawes, Moore, Williams, & HOU’s pick should be enough. Say what you will, but Amar’e & JT upfront w/ Martin on the wing/slashing to the hole = playoffs for a long time.

For PHX, they’ve rebuked an offer w/ Beasley from MIA. The Suns want to remain a playoff team, while getting expiring salary, young talent, and draft picks in return. Well, Hawes is the young talent, and combined w/ Salmons should be enough to keep the SUns in the playoff mix. Moore (only $2M guarateed next year) is a cheap buy out to go with Williams’ expiring salary, and of course the first round pick from HOU gives them the draft pick they want, yet still allows us to keep our lottery pick.