Anatomy of a Basketball Possession
by Ziller on Apr 14, 2009 11:25 AM PDT
in Numbers
55 comments
I promised to communicate why I use advanced metrics more clearly, and this is my first project toward that goal. A game is made up of possessions. Each team ends up with roughly the same number of possessions, because possessions can't end until the other team has the ball. This diagram shows what can happen in a possession, and what ends a possession.
The possession-ending plays are in green and red polygons. Other plays do not end possessions, and progress to one of the next steps. Later, we'll look at how often possessions end for the Kings, Kings' opponents and the league at large. But for now ...
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Did Shoals help you with this diagram?
Seems very FD inspired TZ.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 11:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking the same thing
But noticed the complete lack of badass pentagrams
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Apr 14, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But the hexagons and funky style of order
Made me think of another collaboration.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know what you mean
I always thought Ziller did the graphics on those with Shoals doing the writing. I could be wrong though. It’s rare, but it happens
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Apr 14, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL @ it's rare but happens
I think you’re probably right so maybe this isn’t the rare category after all. Dammit, I thought I was ALWAYS right!
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's another cause of "its rare, but it happens"
you being right that is
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Apr 14, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
HaHaHa
Wouldn’t want it any other way VF.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's right
He’s the idea man, I do the graphical execution.
by Ziller on Apr 14, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My apology sir
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course ...
… almost everything I do has been inspired to a degree by FD’s work. I obviously think about basketball differently than I did five years ago.
by Ziller on Apr 14, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A lot of people do
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And alot of that is people such as yourself
And probably to a greater degree, Henry Abbott in terms of sheer exposure.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I need to start reading more FD
their bball writing is so off the wall and different but really damned cool. i just do most of my blog reading here at work and dont have near enough time to dissect their writing
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Apr 14, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's hard to keep track of all the blogosphere it's gotten so big
You just do what you can, and read what pops up here & there.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is huge
but there’s only certain “must reads.” FD is so insightful and insane that I really need time to absorb it. maybe i’ll just start printing out their posts for while i’m on the toilet where I do most of my reading… and my best thinking
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Apr 14, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I smell a Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy joke in there somewhere
But then again, I can’t ask Douglas Adams to interpret for me either. :( (RIP)
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a freaking awesome chart.
I really like it. You may want to twist it to make the green hexagons the same size.
by mayfieldcol on Apr 14, 2009 1:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't there be a leg for shot clock & game clock expiring?
And how about not making it over the time line. Oh, and how about Webber calling a timeout with none left. You could put a picture of Webb with a big grin on his face in all red.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
by HighTops on Apr 14, 2009 1:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
All turnovers. Except for game clock expiring, but that acts kind of like a turnover.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Apr 14, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not in this case
because there isn’t a new possession generated because of it
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Apr 14, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but it ends a possession.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Apr 14, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But the cycle doesn't start over again
it’s a quandary wrapped in an enigma. i think it should be a half turnover.
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Apr 14, 2009 2:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So, it's a Quigma
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
by HighTops on Apr 14, 2009 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least it's not Quigley down Under
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I must be the only person who likes that movie.
Tom Selleck is the coolest.
by mayfieldcol on Apr 15, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're not the only one
Its a slowish Western, but it is a damn good movie.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 15, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All I can say about the chart is
WOW!
Please make that a sticky somewhere or have a fundamentals and metrics permanent thread. Great reference.
rec’d. This probably should not be on a Sactown Royalty site but a pure basketball site.
Can you give an example of a game adjusted stat? Like, not being too facietous but… i.e. Beno or CP3, as a PG will initiate the possession most times.
by betweentheeyes on Apr 15, 2009 1:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Right
So turnover rate, for example, is turnovers/individual possessions used. Individual possessions used for, say, Beno would include possessions that ended with Beno FTAs, a Beno FGA, or a Beno turnover. Turnover rate would be the percentage of indiv. possessions which are turnovers.
Assists are tricky in this model, because they don’t end the possession themselves — the FGA does. Plus, we have the issues with the lack of potential assists, assists on FTAs, assists on 3s vs 2s. I believe the folks who publish their advanced stats figure assist rate differently.
by Ziller on Apr 15, 2009 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This chart is perfect
I just tried to find places to add something – genetically caused review routine. But I cannot. This is a pure simplified basketball possession.
by Headless Chicken on Apr 15, 2009 3:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Technically
You could add a recursive call to the “Shooting Foul” box, which would remove the need for the footnote, as well as include shooting fouls where the basket was made (the footnote mentions 3 shots, but not 1).
Something like this (apologies for the formatting):
SHOOTING FOUL
|
LAST SHOT?
/ . . . . . \
YES . . . . .NO → (return to SHOOTING FOUL)
|
(continue to MAKE / MISS)
This is by no means a criticism, btw, because I think this chart is fantastic. I’ve often thought about this, but never thought to put it visually. Great stuff TZ.
On a side note, does anyone know why there is no true 1 & 1 in the NBA (have to make the first shot to even attempt the second)? That’s always something that made more sense to me in the College game. It seems like the Bonus & Double-Bonus actually mean something in college.
by smgmatt on Apr 15, 2009 7:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My guess as to why it isn't suggested ...
… is that Hack-a-Shaq type strategies would get out of control.
by Ziller on Apr 15, 2009 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
The effectiveness of a strategy like that would be self-limiting due to the Bonus & Double-Bonus rules already in place, but if a team wants to “not foul” for an entire quarter/half, then why shouldn’t they be able to use those fouls in the endgame (similar to saving timeouts).
Also, isn’t the Hack-a-Shaq strategy based on trading high-percentage FGAs with low-percentage FTAs? 1&1’s happen in loose-ball foul situations, which is exchanging nothing (well, depending on the end result, it’s possibly trading a possession) for low-percentage FTAs. Plus, to go back to my first point, once a team is in the Double-Bonus it’s no different than it is now, so I doubt it would get that out of control.
I remain unconvinced that the NBA has it right in this case.
by smgmatt on Apr 15, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What drives me crazy is not the rule
but that they still actually say ‘shooting one plus the penalty’ (WTF?)
I’d go back to the 1+1 myself I think.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 15, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
Good thinking exercise. You’re probably right.
by Ziller on Apr 15, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LIke I said
This has bothered for a while now, and I have yet to find a good reason for it.
The funny thing is that I think I’m pretty open-minded about it. If there’s a good reason for it (the NBA game is much different than NCAA game after all) I’d accept it.
I just haven’t found that reason yet.
by smgmatt on Apr 15, 2009 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please tell me you're not talking about why the NBA should add the 1 & 1
Please tell me you’re not talking about that.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 15, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I'm not talking about why the NBA should add the 1 & 1"
I’m talking about why they don’t use the 1&1, and yet keep all of the rules in place as though they did.
Don’t tell me a player is going to the line for 1 & 1 when they’re going to get the chance to miss twice no matter what. Don’t tell me a team is now in the “double-bonus”, when there is absolutely nothing different than a second ago when they were in the “bonus” . . . nothing has doubled about the previous bonus. These things make sense in college, where there really is a 1&1.
Either use it or don’t, but this half-way business is ridiculous.
by smgmatt on Apr 15, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't hear the Double Bonus being used
But I might just tune this out.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 15, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
That recursive call is excellent. I’ll switch to that when I update the graph.
by Ziller on Apr 15, 2009 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice
You might consider seeing if its possible to categorize the positive and negative outcomes by shape as well as color for even more clarity. The red hex is reminiscient of a stop sign (use an oct?) and signifies that the possession ended in a negative result. etc ect
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 15, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and size
to indicate greater or lessor impact results in either direction
‘Made Shot’ and ‘Turnover’ big like now, made FT/missed FT smaller
You have some of that going already I know.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 15, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like shiny things
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Apr 15, 2009 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When is the 1&1 used in the college game? Is it used in all NCAA play? I can’t believe I didn’t know this or failed to notice the difference…
by EmmaWK on Apr 24, 2009 1:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
TZ I just want to complement you on the work you are doing.
The anatomy of a foul graphics and the z graph player analysis graphics over at FD are fantastically intuitive and remarkably simple in the way that all great ideas are. Great work.
"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley
by Bluejohn on Apr 15, 2009 8:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Free Darko
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 15, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dork Nerdwitzki?
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Apr 15, 2009 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Come on brother
That was a movie homage.
Think of it as a respectful chant, not as a derogatory remark.
by otis29 on Apr 15, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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