Drafting Internationals and Rubio... (w/part 2)

I think your sample size is fine, but really, most of those guys were lower picks. Many of them have contracts they can’t get out of. It’s just a different situations when you’re drafting “professionals” into your league as opposed to “amateurs”.

I can see your point that Rubio isn’t athletic, or enough in your view, but what I can’t get behind is that American ballplayers are automatically better. What I can’t get behind isn’t that American’s don’t have a higher rate of bust potential than those European players you mentioned. What I can’t get behind is using a smaller pool of players, and using the weakest possible group to boot, to make it. If you want to make this pool, I say really expand the thing. Until then, all I have to do is point out how many American busts there were in relation to players drafted. It would be just as easy to prove my point.

Many here see Rubio as the next ‘Star’ of the NBA. Well the track record isn’t good per that analysis, which though I hadn’t made – is obvious to those who watch the NBA and pay attention to who has excelled..

Euros who become more than role players or adequate starters in the NBA have been very very few and far between. Do you really want to take that chance that he’s that Euro who comes along one or twice a decade? And on such limited data?

I don’t take that chance with a top three pick (no way).

to paraphrase.

I don’t see it. Thats the problem, we simply disagree. While clearly a very very good ball-handler he looks slow (won’t get better) and doesn’t have a great jumpshot (could easily get better, but a question).

I am curious, are you old enough to have seen The Pistol play?

I alluded to the foreign phenomenon a while back while discussing Blake Griffin’s height.

While these trends always make for interesting fodder, the truth is that you can’t judge Rubio based on the performance of other foreign players any better than you can judge Griffin based on other players of his eventual height (as I mentioned, Al Horford is under 6-9. You mean to tell me that you wouldn’t take Al Horford? Really?).

Yao Ming and Dirk are a couple of foreign players that have been worth their weight in gold. Darko, not so much. Barkley and Horford played well beyond their height. Shelden Williams, not so much. Moses Malone and KG were pretty good out of high school. Kwame Brown, not so much.

As it pertains to Griffin/Rubio/Wall/whoever, it will be their personal workouts with the Kings that will determine how GP and company judges their talent. Petrie won’t be worried about the foibles of Peteri Koponen when he watches Rubio, any more than he will think about Anthony Bonner while watching Griffin, or Sebastian Telfair if/when he watches Wall.

Talent will win out, not trends. Especially with a guy like Petrie, who has never been particularly trendy.

All of my blathering notwithstanding, nice work on the fanpost, zen. Good info.

But, before I launch into my spiel, you did make some mistakes. Thabo Sefalosha played in Europe, he is Swiss after all, and never played a day of college ball. He couldn’t. He was already ineligible. He’s been playing professionally since 2001. He was 16 at the time.

Mickeal Pietrus is from France. He played professionally in France before coming to the NBA.

Loul Deng is another player you missed. He’s from Sudan, and grew up in Britain.

Joel Freeland is also from England.

Al Horford is from the Dominican Republic.

You also missed Brad Newley (whose never come over) whose Australian.

I don’t point this out for anything other than, really, are you saying that Europeans are more likely to be role players when the heavy bulk of them are not being drafted in the top 10 of the draft?

Furthermore, that changes some of the numbers you put out, and you might want to tweak after the adjustments.

Also, If were talking about franchise talent, we’re obviously going to have more Americans. And, who was arguing this? Not I, sir.

To quote Section, talent is talent is talent. You can convince me John Wall is better than Ricky Rubio. You’re not going to convince me that Griffin will be better than either guy. Period, and that’s pretty much the way this is going to go. The NCAA isn’t any better a developer of talent than the European/Foreign game is. And, many people believe the Spanish/Italian league is better than the NCAA. That isn’t my opinion; I’m merely usurping people who do it for a living. Beyond that even, the EuroLeague is a tournament you have to qualify for out of your league. It isn’t a league in of itself, it’s more like a big pool that gets whittled down. NBA Execs like it because it has a lot of talent play head to head and there’s a different feel for that than there is in each individual league.

Beyond even all that, the question is whose is the best player for the Kings long term, and what can the Kings do to better put themselves in position to be competitive for next year, 2 years down the road, 5 years down the road, etc., etc., etc.

Anybody can argue that the NCAA produces more players than the European Leagues. It’s easy to argue, regardless of how dumb the actual argument is in of itself. Why is it dumb? Because professional players play with contracts and they’re bound to them. Amateurs are not. NCAA players are amateurs, even if in reality they are not.

I would never dismiss a player because he was American or European. I think selling yourself short on any pool of player that would make your team better is foolish.

Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. Most people around here argued for Oden. I said Durant. Still do. I was right. Most people were wrong. And? What difference did it make? The Kings never had a shot at Durant anyway. And it’s not like Spencer Hawes is day old meat.

We can spend all our time arguing about which players whose best, and we will. But the bottom line is that the NCAA isn’t any better a development for basketball talent going into the NBA than foreign professional leagues. IF you think that, you probably don’t know nearly enough about basketball as you would like to believe.

So it doesn’t follow that the NCAA is a better testing ground than Europe is for the NBA?

I don’t see your logic.

There are huge differences between them and it would take a very interesting and lengthy PhD to draw safe conclusions.

The main thing is that NCAA is actually a training ground for the NBA. Europe is a completely different basketball culture. Different game play, rules, organizational structure, crazy hardcore fans… everything.

For instance, I think most Americans don’t realize that the Euroleague concerns very few teams in Europe. The 95% of the hundreds of teams in the local leagues/divisions play no international games and barely have a decent court to play. Most of the teams play in small gyms. Players in weak teams and lower divisions probably have a 2nd job. For example the local team here in my suburb used to be in the premier Greek league (A1) some years ago, 4 of the players were also working as bodyguards.

The span between the 2 best Greek teams (both of them are in the Final 4 of the Euroleagie) and the rest of the league is immense. The basketball quality in the majority of the teams outside the euroleague is really low. If we go further below, we’re talking about real amateurs.
I don’t know much about the NCAA and I guess there are many colleges of a low basketball level there too.

Anyway, as I see it.. Europe is not an institution/association like the NCAA. It’s basketball in dozens of countries with different languages and culture. Some (very few actually ie. Spanish premier league) are good for the game quality-wise and others (most of them) are a jungle.

There’s no continental drafting system, no serious scouting for youngsters going on. Teams don’t search for talented high schoolers. Most high schools don’t even have a basketball team.

Dirk Nowitzki was really noticed when he went to a NIKE camp in the USA

on the data compilation!

Sorry for the lazy research but maybe it’s a start for someone who wants to do a much better analysis.

From 03 to 07, 216 players were drafted out of college or an American high school.

Out of these 216, 158 are still in the league (a little under 75%)

Out of these 158, 13 have been All Stars (a little under 10%)

Not trying to prove anything. Just showing some quick stats before I head to bed.

Scola played in the Spanish league. Would be interesting to see a list of Spanish league players drafted and playing in the NBA. Scola, both Gasols, Fernandez?, Rodriguez?, Calderon?, Navarro?, any of the other South Americans?