Kings Grab the 23rd Pick from Houston
by Tom Ziller on Apr 16, 2009 5:43 AM PDT
in NBA Draft
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PrintIn case you missed Wednesday night's finale -- which concentrated more on the plights of San Antonio, Dallas and Portland than Ike Diogu's latest explosion -- thanks to a series of dominoes the Kings have ended up with the 23rd pick in June's draft.
Houston sent its first-round pick with lottery protections to the Kings in the Ron Artest trade.
The Kings are guaranteed a top-four pick, as well as No. 23 and No. 31 in this year's draft. Here are the players currently slotted No. 20 to 26 on DraftExpress' mock draft.
Craig Brackens (F/C, Iowa State), B.J. Mullens (C, Ohio State), Jrue Holiday (G, UCLA), Patrick Patterson (F, Kentucky), Chase Budinger (G/F, Arizona), Austin Daye (F, Gonzaga), Sam Young (G, Pitt).
The draft might be packed with legit stars at the top, but it's a fairly deep draft. It actually seems like the so-called weakness of the draft has spurred more underclassmen to enter, with the assumption they can rise easily with a good pre-draft session. This, of course, serves to make the draft deeper.
With three of the first 31 picks, that's a good thing for the Kings.
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It's a good thing the Kings have the 23rd pick
It’s a good thing the Kings have the 31st pick, and it’s a very good thing they have a top 4 pick guaranteed.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I want
Jrue Holiday. To me it doesn’t matter if we draft a point guard or not with our first pick, if Jrue Holiday is there with our second pick, I want to see him a Sacramento King.
"Greed is the inventor of injustice as well as the current enforcer." - Julian Casablancas
Why?
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Allow me to speak in his stead
Jrue looks like he might end up being a great on- and off-the-ball defender. While his outside shooting seems to be lacking, he has a lot of qualities which remind me of Doug Christie. While we might be better served taking a more traditional PG in the first-round, I really like the idea of taking some defensive stoppers at some point in the draft.
by misterbrister on Apr 16, 2009 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Me too
I’m skeptical Jrue will let himself drop that far. He can always re enter and be a lottery pick without having Darren Collison around.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Return
I would like to see him return to school to see what he can do as the lead PG. If he comes out this year though, I wonder if it’s because he doesn’t believe he is a good enough point guard to up his stock next year as a true point guard and leader on the floor.
Kings rule! (They are royalty - right?)
Which makes me wonder why a team would want him
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
That is one of the main reasons right here
Holiday doesn’t look like he’d be a traditional point guard, and to me, like misterbrister, he seems like he could be at least Doug Christie-lithe, who was an excellent perimeter defensive player in general who’ll help ball movement and provide athleticism regardless of what he does, things which are needed above a lot of things by this team.
"Greed is the inventor of injustice as well as the current enforcer." - Julian Casablancas
I don't have a link but
I do remember reading where Holiday was quoted that he didn’t like the restraints that were placed on him by the coach. Whether there is a strain between him & the coach is uncertain, he might be using it as an excuse.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
Rebuild through the draft or through trades?
We’ll see what Petrie decides to do with three picks in the first round. He’ll probably NOT trade away the top four pick, but the 23rd and 31st picks packaged together or with someone currently on the roster would allow the Kings to possibly get two top-10 or top-15 picks. Or not.
We have a young team, and we can be the next Portland if in Petrie we trust. (And we’ll give you a mulligan for the Douby era).
No that won't work
People will throw that out a lot, but moving up is very hard in the NBA draft. I think it’s mostly NFL fans who say that, because in the NFL draft you can do that.
So let me use this analogy: A NBA 1st round pick: Equals roughly the 3 1st rounds of the NFL draft
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Wasn't there a post with a link to a rating system for picks?
Someone had done a math problem that rated each pick in the NBA draft based on the prior star potential of each pick. There was a chart that showed a steep curve starting at the #1 pick and sloped down quickly. At somewhere the mid teens the chart leveled off and was a straight line. I couldn’t find it, but maybe someone else remembers.
Anyways, what I got from it was that the value of the last half of the 1st round was so low in star quality, that it would take 5 or more picks in the last half to equal the same odds of getting a star with the 15th pick. That’s how I remember it anyways. That’s not to say that you can’t get very lucky occasionally. And, you certainly can get good role players with any of the picks.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
There is
It’s on DX.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
interestingly
number of times #1 got #1: 3
number of times #1 got #2: 5
number of times#1 got #3: 5
number of times #1 got #4:6
separate question: does anyone think the NBA should revise the current system to further weight the chance for higher pick for the worst losing teams or is this close to perfect (to prevent tanking)?
by betweentheeyes on Apr 16, 2009 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I like it the way it is
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
What would equate to getting screwed?
The most likely spot for us to end up would be 4th(36% chance), then 1st(25% chance), 2nd(21.5% chance) and finally 3rd(17.5% chance)
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Apr 17, 2009 5:57 AM PDT up reply actions
the most likely spot for us to end up is 1-3, not 4
We’ve got a 64% chance of ending up 1-3, but only a 36% chance of ending up 4.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
Well the most likely spot for us to end up is
1-4. We have a 100% chance to end up 1-4. Are you fucking joking?
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Apr 17, 2009 6:15 AM PDT up reply actions
How about this?
The most likely place for us to end up is 2-4. We’ve got a 75% chance to end up 2-4, but only a 25% chance of ending up 1.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Apr 17, 2009 6:17 AM PDT up reply actions
This is fun
The most likely place for us to end up is 1, 3 or 4. We’ve got a 78.5% chance to end up 1, 3 or 4, but only a 21.5% chance of ending up 2.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Apr 17, 2009 6:19 AM PDT up reply actions
I can't stop
The most likely place for us to end up is 1,2 or 4. We’ve got a 82.5% chance to end up 1,2 or 4, but only a 17.5% chance of ending up 3.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Apr 17, 2009 6:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe you and lttg need to take your meds together
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
yummmmm! medsssss
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 17, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't get it
because I replied to myself? I think he learned that from you.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Apr 17, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Being Pookeyguru:
Where being destructive, pithy, and leaning towards self subjective analysis is a learned trait…
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
first, let me say I had no idea how invested you were in your earlier comment...
…with that said, my point is just this:
Winding up 4th may be the most likely single spot for us to wind up relative to the other spots, but…
…to argue that this means that we are not technically ‘screwed’ if that happens is incorrect because I think any reasonable person would define ‘screwed’ as when you get a bad result that was also an unlikely result – and 4th place would be a bad result and it would also be unlikely – only a 36% likelihood.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
I was mostly joking around and I was a bit buzzed
So, sorry it came across so nasty, but my question was valid, I think.
So, by your reasoning getting the 3rd pick would not be getting screwed. It may be different for Aykis, it may be not getting the 1st pick, I don’t know he didn’t respond.
Many people think that because we have the worst record we are likely to get the 1st pick, but it is more likely that we won’t.
For me not 1st or 2nd would be a pretty bad result, but it is actually more likely we end up there than in the top 2. (53.5% chance we end up 3 or 4)
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Apr 17, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm with you...
…It’s 75% likely that we WON’T get the number one pick. When is the last time any of us bucked those kind of odds?
So why do we all feel we’re entitled to buck them now?
Because we’re deceived that the fact that we have a better chance than any other single team means we have a better than likely chance, period. And that’s not true.
The reality is that it’s not us vs. each other team, it’s us vs. all other teams combined, and the odds are that “all-other-teams-combined” are going to beat us to #1.
With that said, I’d still feel like we got reamed if we got anything less than the top spot. And I’d be really pissed.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
But that's equally true of every other team (That the odds are stacked against them)
It’s just that 1 team does beat them.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
yes and no
the odds are stacked even worse against every other team, and yes, someone will beat great odds, but, like the real lottery, that fact shouldn’t make you feel any better about your chances.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
If we get number 4...
I’m slamwowing on Stern’s desk.
Kings fan? A's Fan?! Al Davis Run Raiders Fan?!!?!! ANNNND you're sacrificing 2 years of your life because you're LDS?!!?!?!?!?! Yeah, Masochist is the new sexy.
by killerking on Apr 19, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's kind of a tough call
Part of me feels that there should be a better chance that the worst team gets the best pick, but at the same time, it is a lottery. I understand the importance of it to prevent tanking, but what about teams that are genuinely bad?
www.mancancook.net
They should weight it a bit more
The worst team should get the 1st pick more often
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 16, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions
The current lottery system started in 1994
So, under the current system, there have only been 15 drawings.
- won 2
- won 1
- won 4
The current system gives the 3 worst teams a 60% chance of winning the #1 pick. And, no matter who wins #1, the odds get better that one of the 3 worst teams would get the #2 pick also. If you were to give them higher odds, there would be more incentive to Tank. Given the odds in 100 yrs, one of the worst 3 team will have won the #1 pick 60 times and the other 11 teams will have won 40. That’s 20 wins each for the 3 worst teams, and less than 4 each for the other 11 teams. The percentages seem correct to me.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
Bingo (in my Ralph Lawler voice)
You can also interpret this is as a whole endorsement for why I like the system. Now teams can’t do anything but hope.
If anybody hasn’t done it, you should read HT’s explanation of how the lottery system itself works when they pull out the ping pong balls. It’s pretty important when you consider the alternative.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I'm also a believe in karma
The Bucks beat the s ystem and got the 1st overall pick. Yet the Hornets who had the 2nd worst record ended up with the best player of the draft after being 4th overall.
Perspective folks. There’s no such thing in life as a guarantee. This system is as good as it’s going to get. It’s not always going to work every time for every team with the desired result, but it’s much better than signing Gail Goodrich to a Free Agent and losing out on Magic Johnson 3 years later.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Bucks in 2005^
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I disagree.
I like what the NHL does. Their Lottery is only of the top five, and it’s still weighted. That means The number one team COULD get messed up by getting the fifth pick, but numbers 6-14 don’t have a shot. I don’t know if I’d rather be leap-frogged by phoenix or get the number five pick. I think I’d take my chances with the number five knowing The Grizz and The Clips would be drafting ahead of us, so we’d only have to worry about The Wiz and ’Sota getting decent players.
Kings fan? A's Fan?! Al Davis Run Raiders Fan?!!?!! ANNNND you're sacrificing 2 years of your life because you're LDS?!!?!?!?!?! Yeah, Masochist is the new sexy.
I don't know the system (and I am feeling too lazy right now to look it up) but
as you describe it:
This system encourages tanking. Especially If I am the number 6-8 team and if I am the borderline 4-5 team.
As the worst team in the league (by a decent margin), I think the Kings deserve the #1 pick. I felt differently in the past when the Kings were in the middle of the lottery – then I felt after a trying, but hopeful season, that the Kings missed the playoffs but at least there was the hope for a lucky pick.
The system as is, is fair – and conspiracy theories aside, the best around of all of the professional sports.
by betweentheeyes on Apr 19, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Three Picks Early
Makes me very happy. Hoping to see a decent turnaround from this team next year, though I imagine they’ll look entirely different.
Gravity Says: What?
not me
He’s a statue that will take 4 yrs to develop – if he does.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 16, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions
If he's cheap
Who cares?
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
The Kings could just send him down to Reno for 2 years
And if he doesn’t pan out, just waive him right then & there.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
But knowing Geoff Petrie
He’d rather pick a player off the scrap pile, so this is probably an over stated over done moot point.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Griffin and Holiday ....
to quote Borat, that would be “very nice!”
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
Borat is SO 2006...
it’s all about Bruno now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq_Nl4Sb57Y
"It's shyte being Scottish. We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fuckin' Earth. The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic, trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some people hate the English. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand, are colonized by Wankers -- Can't even find a decent culture to be colonized by . . . It's a shyte state of affairs to be in...and all the fresh air in the world won't make any fuckin' difference!"
by PhutureKings on Apr 16, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions
ahhh, if only I got a royalty every time someone used that expression...
…my friends and I came up with that in college, then he popularized it on a website and now he’s parlayed it into a gig on the Howard Stern show. Here’s to hoping the phrase “jump the shark” never jumps.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
Top 2 pick is critical
It all boils down to if Rubio enters trhe draft. You have to take Griffin #1. Rubio #2, Thabeet #3 even though he scares the hell out of me. If the Kings drop to #4 things can get messy. Will Petrie go big? Jordan Hill, physically gifted but the basketball IQ of a frog. Or will he go for a PG this early? Jennings, who nobody has seen play or Lawson this early? How about just a basketball player like Harden or Tyreke Evans. Then trade for a PG. Should be fun.
If the Kings end up with 4th pick, they should send it to (at least try to if they want to move up) the Timberwolves, for what might be 6th and 18th picks in the draft.
Maybe if Tyreke Evans goes 3rd
But if he’s there at 4, you do take him.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
But does Petrie?
Drafting a guard that can’t shoot would be quite a stretch for him.
Can his shot be fixed? Perhaps, but after watching him fade away on uncontested shots (to the point that he’s actually fallen down) I’m not sure I’d be all that excited about the Kings drafting him.
Are you talking about Brandon Jennings?
He looks like he fades away even when he doesn’t need to.
"Greed is the inventor of injustice as well as the current enforcer." - Julian Casablancas
No.
That was supposed to be a reply to pookey. Tyreke Evans fades away on every shot, even from 35 feet out with nobody on him, it’s ridiculous.
He's 19
That’s correctable.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I wonder if anyone else has noticed this
DX for some reason now has Houston’s pick listed at 24th. Was there a development I’m not aware of?
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Must be an honest mistake -
Houston has more losses than Portland, and they have Portland at 23.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
I'm thinking so
But what confuses me 214, is that they had the Kings earlier at 23, or so I thought. Maybe I’m hallucinating (or maybe not).
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Kings and the 23rd pick...
we have some history with the 23rd pick… 2005 – Cisco; 1997 – Bobby Jackson – 1995 Travis Best; and 1990 Anthony Bonner. (yes, i know we didn’t select BJax). Some notable other 23’s: Travis Outlaw, Tayshaun Prince, DeShawn Stevenson, Tyronne Lue and Devean George.
by longtimelistenerfirsttimecaller on Apr 16, 2009 4:11 PM PDT reply actions
That's kind of a circular argument
I really think it matters more who is there, and whom the Kings are looking to take.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
huh?
wasn’t making an argument, just posting some history…
by longtimelistenerfirsttimecaller on Apr 16, 2009 4:45 PM PDT reply actions
Posting history
could be seen as making an argument. Moving on. You’re making a point (for a 3 part series I’m working on) that’s very important in the overall view of how we view the draft.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Or unlucky you
Depending on how you feel about 3 2000+ word pieces.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Are you telling me you won't read it now?
How dare you say such a thing!
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Oh good
For a minute there I thought your Girlfriend had kidnapped you.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
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