Buzzkill: We will Probably NOT Win the Draft Lottery

Ok, there.  I've said it.

I've uttered the words that no Kings fan wants to hear.  In fact, based on the many recent draft-related fan posts, much of Kings nation is unaware that the possibility of NOT being lucky enough to acquire Blake Griffin or Ricky Rubio even exists.

Well, it does.  Big time. 

Since the lottery went to a weighted system in 1990, the team with the best statistical chance of winning has only come out on top three times.  That's three times in 18 years.  As Austin Powers would say, "Ouch, baby.  Very ouch." 

Put into a percentage, we all (should) know that we have a 25% of winning the first pick.  Our chances actually decrease for each of the next picks, at approximately  a 21.5% and 17.5% for the second and third picks, respectively.

Some of you may be saying to yourself, "Hey, Phuture, why are you being such a Debbie Downer?" to which I reply, "Because we are jinxing ourselves.  We are setting ourselves up for massive disappointment.  We are, in effect, practically daring the basketball Gods to slight us and cast us into damnation."  And also because I am a law student and, over the past three years, my brain has been conditioned to think in worst-case-scenario terms.

I also would like to point out the inverse view of the situation - we have a 75% chance of NOT winning the draft lottery.  Statistically, we would only win ONCE out of FOUR drawings.  The numbers are simple and evident, but I kind of get the feeling we're ignoring them.

More than anything, I guess I am writing this post because I think we all need to be reminded that, just because our squad was the most pathetic team on an NBA court this past season, doesn't mean we are entitled to anything (other than sympathy) and we are likely not going to get Griffin or Rubio.  It is my hope that by broadcasting this message of humility, the basketball Gods will be satisfied that we are indeed the deserving franchise.  Not only because I really, REALLY want to have Griffin or Rubio on the squad next year, but also because I really don't want a team like PHX to win the lottery...

It's not crazy talk.  Last year, the Bulls, with a 1.7 (that's "one-point-seven") percent chance of winning the lotto came away with a shiny, brand new PG named Rose. 

So, put down the Blake Griffin party punch, strap on your seat belt, and prepare for for a head-on collision with disappointment.  Seriously.

Maybe, if we are lucky, the Kings will walk away from May 19th with a top-2 pick.  My fellow Kings fans, I leave you with these two pieces of advice:

1) Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

2) If anyone sees that season-ticket-holding-biatch from last year's lottery anywhere near the ping pong balls, use a tranq gun and remove her from the premises.  I know it's not her fault, but she sure as shit didn't help matters much.



(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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