Worst-Case Scenario

by furious.d on Apr 22, 2009 3:17 PM PDT Comment 15 comments

Since we're all Kings fans, we're all probably used to hoping for the best and expecting the worst. (Pervis Ellison, Bobby Hurley, Game 6 - I'm sure I don't have to remind you). So what happens if we end up with the #3 or #4 pick? Well some of us are impressed by Thabeeeeeeet! and some are excited about the potential of Tyreke Evans, and some even want to trade down if we can't get 1 or 1a. But what about trading up?

There are a few teams with a good chance of sneaking ahead of us that seem to need Rubio just as bad as we do (Clippers, T-Wolves). But there are some other teams with good lottery odds that have much bigger holes than PG. For instance, if the Wiz were to win the #1 pick, they'd probably pick Griffin. If the Thunder then were to get the #2 pick and the Kings the #3, I think we'd be in a pretty good position to switch spots. The Thunder already have a talented, 20 year-old PG to develop; they'd have much more use for a dominant pivot who can run the floor and anchor their defense (Thabeet).

So the questions are these: If the Kings don't get a top-2 pick and Rubio's still available at #2, should they try to trade up? What would you be willing to give up in order to get this done? Do you think teams would demand too much? Would the options be financially feasible?

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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Interesting premise Furious

I just think it’s early to state this until we know what the details are.

In 2007, Memphis, Boston and Milwaukee had the 3 worst records. They ended up 4th, 5th and 6th. Portland (6th worst), Seattle (7th worst), and Atlanta (4th worst record) were the 3 lottery winners. And the funny thing with Atlanta was, if they hadn’t gotten the 3rd overall pick, they would have given it to Phoenix as part of the Joe Johnson deal. It ended up that Phoenix got the 15th overall pick last year which turned into Robin Lopez. Al Horford or Robin Lopez? Who ya got!

My point is simple: Let’s not play this game until we know what the game is.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Apr 22, 2009 3:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No, you don't pay to move up

You might pay to buy a draft pick outright. But, there is always a chance that the #2 team won’t pick him. And, you still have other PG options. Rubio might not even be the best PG in the draft, and we won’t know for at least a year.

I’m assuming that we end up #3. Only once in 15yrs has the worst team been knocked into 4th place. And, the odds are we 65% that we end top 3. So, as the 3rd pick, we still have our choice of remaining PG’s. We still have 2 of the top 3 bigs, And, if Minni wanted the 3rd spot badly enough, we might even get their top 2 picks by trading down. And, lastly we will have a great opportunity for making a big trade at the trade deadline because of K9’s expiring.

Unless GP makes the greatest trade in the history of the draft, we’ll come away with 2 great pieces at 3 & 23. But, that wouldn’t be enough to make us a playoff team. Hawes & JT will still be developing for 2 more yrs. The rook draft picks will be young and unseasoned. The coaching staff will be implementing new systems. No need to try to buy a championship in one year. It wouldn’t work anyways.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Apr 22, 2009 5:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We're going to get 4.

by Aykis16 on Apr 22, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Am I strategically challenged

or would I be right (with apologies to guru for playing the game anyway) to say that you would let OKC take the pick? If they were to pick Rubio and you really covet him, you work on something that gets OKC what they want at #3 and, of course, find out whatever other ransom will be exacted. Chances are they do not take Rubio at that spot unless they are angling for your phone call anyway. No?

by left hand on Apr 22, 2009 5:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Right

It would definitely go down as a swap of players, not draft positions. The Kings would want to know that their player will be around with the second pick (although I’m sure they’d love to get Griffin too), and more importantly OKC wouldn’t want to give up the pick until they know that Griffin won’t be available.

I was just calling the draft-day trade “trading up” for the sake of simplicity.

by furious.d on Apr 23, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Worst case scenario?

Rubio pulls out of the draft and Griffin does as well.

by mayfieldcol on Apr 22, 2009 6:01 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

(Griffin isn't pulling out)

He’s almost virtually guaranteed to go #1. Well, or go #2 in the case of Geoff Petrie disrupting it.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Apr 22, 2009 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think if we get Number 1, Petrie might arrange a deal

Take Griffin, next team gets Rubio, then perhaps big trade.

by Aykis16 on Apr 22, 2009 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know.

That would be the worst case scenario though. I know it will never happen.

by mayfieldcol on Apr 23, 2009 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We need someone to sticky a May 19th count down clock

which hopefully won’t explode

by betweentheeyes on Apr 22, 2009 11:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Worst Case Draft Scenarios

The Kings deserve a break. They have already had enough terrible and tragic draft pick scenarios.

1. Getting the #1 in 1989 (Pervis Ellison!)
2. Ricky Berry
3. Bobby Hurley
4. Joe Kleine

OK, the last one was for Section.

The Kings don’t need another worst case draft scenario.

Kings rule! (They are royalty - right?)

by dalt99 on Apr 23, 2009 1:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Precisely

we need to be proactive about turning our worst case into our best, if it comes to that.

Then, if it still blows up in our faces, we can just resign ourselves to the sadistic pleasure of being perpetually heartbroken. But at least we’ll know where we stand.

by furious.d on Apr 23, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

and given all that, I'd still rather be a Kings fan

than a dubs fan

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on Apr 25, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

3rd or 4th pick

If we do end up not getting a top 2 pick, I wouldn’t be too terribly upset if we got Tyreke Evans. Other than Rubio and Griffin, he is the only other player I see with superstar potential. He may not be a pure point guard at the next level, but i think we need to take the best talent available with our first top 5 pick in, what, 15 years?

by Nick the Quick on Apr 25, 2009 11:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

18 years

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Apr 25, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs