"Daddy, where do all stars come from?"
So I'm sitting here in my office tonight, watching someone else's team play basketball because my team was put on furlough Friday (and Saturday through Thursday) for the next several months. Stupid economy.
As I watched the games tonight, I came to the realization that there were quite a few 2009 NBA all stars playing. In fact, 7 of the 26 players that were named to the NBA all star team this year (including those that were injured and their ultimate replacements) were playing tonight (it would have been 8 with KG). It got me wondering as to how many all stars made the playoffs. The answer turned out to be 23 out of 26. Devin Harris, Amare Stoudemire and Shaquille O'Neal are the only all stars from this year's team currently fishing. Conversely, three teams are in the playoffs with no all stars - Philadelphia, Chicago and Utah, though I would bet that Derrick Rose, Andre Iguodala and Deron Williams will playing in an all star game sooner than later.
The next question posed was "Why in the hell are you in the office typing and watching basketball? The Kings aren't in the playoffs!" Ah, I can always count on Mrs. section214 for spot-on analysis. But the question that I asked myself (besides how long I could make this post before I wind up sleeping on the couch) was how did the current all star crop come to be? That is, were they all drafted, and if so, where did they go in their respective draft? In other words, where do all stars come from?
It turns out that each and every all star was indeed drafted, which is not exactly a revelation. Only two of them were 2nd round picks (Rashard Lewis and Mo Williams), and only four more were non-lottery picks - Danny Granger (17), David West (18), Jameer Nelson (20) and Tony Parker (28). Keeping in mind this is an awfully small sample size, it would appear that it is more likely that you will find an exceptional guard later in the draft than you would a big man. Of course, such small data samples change with the breeze, and the dynamic could be completely different in a couple of years. But the first two games sucked tonight, and I needed to find something to occupy myself.
77% of the all stars were lottery picks, 54% were top five picks. Six of these guys (or 23%) were #1 picks (AI, LeBron, Dwight Howard, Duncan, Yao and Shaq). Please note that the majority of #1's that have grown up to be all stars have been big dudes.
(Disclaimer - None of this is to suggest that Griffin is the pick over Rubio. In fact, a guy like Rubio might single-handedly skew these numbers. We'll soon see.)
This is not to say that the Kings pick will have a 54% chance to be an all star. But it is to say that statistically (again, using this thimble size sample data) the Kings pick is more likely to become an all star than (say) Spencer Hawes (2 all stars were selected 10th), Jason Thompson (no all stars at 12) or Kevin Martin (no all stars at 26).
Since I am way too lazy to do actual research and run this back over the past ten years, I'm going to pull a blind guess out of my arse and say that these numbers are probably pretty similar from year to year. Iverson will probably vacate the ranks of #1 picks to be an all star, but Derrick Rose may fill the void. There will be a Rashard Lewis or a Mo Williams or a Carlos Boozer or a MIchael Redd to represent the 2nd round. But the numbers suggest that this will be the Kings best opportunity to draft an all star (I don't count Pervis Ellison, since that was the dead ball era, you weren't allowed to dunk, and the games were played outside).
And with that, Deron Williams hit his shot, Kobe missed his, and I can wrap this up and go to sleep a happy camper. I bid you all a good...wtf?!? When did she drop my pillow and a blanket on the couch? I guess we won't be making any little all stars tonight.
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30 comments
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Comments
For a min there I thought you cramped my style
And beat me to my big piece I haven’t quite finished yet. (This writing thing sure takes up alot of time.)
Anyway, your points about having top picks mean something. Very few players have even been named to the All-Star team without being a top 15 pick, and the one who have, haven’t had much staying power. And the one who have, like Gilbert Arenas, you can count on one hand.
In the last 15 years only 2 players made an all-star team that weren’t drafted: Brad Miller is one (he shouldn’t be hard that for KIngs fan to guess), and the other is Ben Wallace. You do the math.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 23, 2009 10:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So what you're saying...
Is that Rubio has to be the first pick because we can find a ben wallace or brad miller AFTER the draft? Smart man that Pookey Guru. I knew you hated blake griffin as much as all of us. I mean what if thabeet slips too? like to pick 23?
Kings fan? A's Fan?! Al Davis Run Raiders Fan?!!?!! ANNNND you're sacrificing 2 years of your life because you're LDS?!!?!?!?!?! Yeah, Masochist is the new sexy.
by killerking on Apr 23, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know you're leaving in a few days but...
…don’t kill any brain cells, okay? You already kill enough of them reading, and responding. :)
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 23, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hahaha.
Kings fan? A's Fan?! Al Davis Run Raiders Fan?!!?!! ANNNND you're sacrificing 2 years of your life because you're LDS?!!?!?!?!?! Yeah, Masochist is the new sexy.
by killerking on Apr 23, 2009 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All of us?
"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley
by Bluejohn on Apr 24, 2009 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was mildly
Oozing with sarcasm.
Kings fan? A's Fan?! Al Davis Run Raiders Fan?!!?!! ANNNND you're sacrificing 2 years of your life because you're LDS?!!?!?!?!?! Yeah, Masochist is the new sexy.
by killerking on Apr 24, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just mildly?
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 25, 2009 1:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, how do we get some of those all star thingermcbobs?
So…Griffin or Rubio? Rubio or Griffin? Rubio or Thabeet? (just kidding Pookey)
214’s outstanding post (rec’d as a show of solidarity for couch sleepers everywhere) points out one enormous fact – WHEREVER the Kings are drafting, they should take the player with the most talent and highest ceiling as a ballplayer, regardless of position. If I have ever seen a team in more dire need of an all star than this one, I don’t recall it.
Far smarter basketball minds than yours truly will decide who that player is, but finding a player with that ability and potential should be the sole focus of this draft considering where we are picking and the state of the team.
by Mcamp49 on Apr 23, 2009 11:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't care if you like Thabeet
I’m not going to blast you cuz you do.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 24, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was just playin' around...
Actually, I do like Thabeet, but he is exactly the type of player the Kings shouldn’t take with their top pick. He has a very clear ceiling – very effective defensive presence, very limited offensive player. That’s not a bad thing, but not the stuff that all stars are made from. When you have Rubio, Griffin, Evans, etc. to choose from – players who could become stars, you need to roll the dice…
by Mcamp49 on Apr 24, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or in our case,
you need the dice to roll for you.
by Aykis16 on Apr 24, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well in a matter of fact then
We agree, exactly.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 24, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems to me
that Rubio is far the guy with most talent, more experience and more usefulness in the draft…Griffin is good, but I don’t see any doubt in drafting Rubio over him….and RR is even younger!
The only good thing this season was the growth of JT and Hawes…by picking another PF you’d have to keep JT coming from the bench, while picking Rubio you could finally chain Beno on the bench…No brainer choice
by Panzerfaust on Apr 24, 2009 3:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Picking for need is dangerous...
At #1, take the BPA.
If you think that’s Rubio, take him. If you think that’s Griffin, I wouldn’t pass on him because you are worried about Thompson’s minutes.
The DX breakdown of power forward’s in very interesting. The stats back up Griffin’s status as the #1 pick.
by R-Man on Apr 24, 2009 6:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They sure do
Its becoming no secret that I’ve jumped onto the Griffin bandwagon like Val Kilmer in the movie Willow. He’s just got so many tools, with legit size, speed, and skill, to pass up on. He’s well-rounded, tough, and has a basketball mind with a great work-ethic. Whats to not love?
by Citadel 29 on Apr 24, 2009 7:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kilmer was prescient to jump on the Griff bandwagon when he did
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
by Holmdel on Apr 24, 2009 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had to watch Willow in literature class
I felt bad for Val Kilmer.
"Greed is the inventor of injustice as well as the current enforcer." - Julian Casablancas
by submison on Apr 24, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And here I liked Willow
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 24, 2009 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are many reasons to feel bad for Val Kilmer
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
by Exhibit G on Apr 24, 2009 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I'm wrong
but I don’t see him ever becoming dominant in his role….he had great numbers this year, but he was not only the first offensive choice, but even the second, the third and the fourth of his team…
Rubio will not only put good numbers at any level, he’s going to make all his teammate playing better
by Panzerfaust on Apr 24, 2009 7:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know who you're talking about
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 25, 2009 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Griffin if I had to guess
Although that isn’t really true what Panzer said. I’ve seen lesser post threats with worse perimeter players than Willie Warren.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 25, 2009 1:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In that case
Havn’t the ‘greatest of the great’ for the most part been guys you could give the ball to when it counts and they dominate for huge sections of games?
Doesn’t sound like a negative to me.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 27, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Won't ever be
You’re in the Griffin camp. Good for you. I’m not. Good for me. You don’t seem to appreciate (or like) the Griffin points that don’t highlight him greater than Rubio.
You’re going to have to go into more detail why Griffin is the slam dunk choice. You just haven’t done it. (And I’m very much on the fence still. Have been for quite some time.)
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Apr 28, 2009 3:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
This is even more reason to draft based on talent, not solely need, when you’re in the Lottery.
by Ryne Nelson on Apr 24, 2009 8:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The first thing that came to my mind while reading this was
Section214 has a tv and a computer in front by his shitter?
Apparently the economy hasn’t been bad for everyone
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Apr 24, 2009 8:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Brilliant multi-tasking.
This post made me think two things immediately. That’s a lot of things for immediately!
1) We need to be real. You almost have to be bad before you can become really good….unless you’re the Lakers. How the Lakers get to get around that I don’t know. Mama’s favorite?
2) Will people who scream for GP’s head on a platter because, in part, he hasn’t drafted any All-Stars please shut up.
by left hand on Apr 24, 2009 9:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Someone made mention of Chicago having loads of top ten picks to get to where they are. I think that we may be in the lottery for a couple more years, but that will only be good for our long term future. I’d much rather be us right now than say, the Mavs or the Hawks. It’s the 82-0 or 0-82, leading TO 82-0. If we have to REALLY suck a couple years to be REALLY good again, so be it.
Also, K-Mart should be an All-Star. Shaws will. Shock Could.
Kings fan? A's Fan?! Al Davis Run Raiders Fan?!!?!! ANNNND you're sacrificing 2 years of your life because you're LDS?!!?!?!?!?! Yeah, Masochist is the new sexy.
by killerking on Apr 24, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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